Washington Post Poll
This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone October 22 to 26, 2012, among a random sample of 1,504 adults in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Interviews were conducted on conventional and cellular telephones, and carried out in English and Spanish by Abt-SRBI of New York. The results from the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points; it is three points for the samples of 1,309 registered voters and 3.5 points for the sample of 1,228 likely voters.
*= less than 0.5 percent
1. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) How closely are you following the 2012 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not so closely, or not closely at all?
---- Closely ----- ---- Not closely ----- No
NET Very Smwt. NET Not too At all opinion
10/26/12 LV 95 65 30 5 3 1 *
10/26/12 RV 92 61 31 8 4 3 *
9/16/12 LV 92 55 37 8 6 3 0
9/16/12 RV 89 50 39 11 7 4 *
10/25/08 RV 92 62 30 7 5 2 1
9/21/08 RV 93 58 35 7 6 1 *
2. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?
Don't think Already
Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote voted No
to vote vote 50/50 that (vol.) (vol.) op.
10/26/12 RV 88 4 2 1 1 3 *
9/16/12 RV 89 4 4 3 0 NA *
10/25/08 RV 88 4 2 1 1 5 0
9/21/08 RV 88 6 5 2 * NA *
3. (IF CERTAIN TO VOTE) Do you think you’ll (vote in person at your polling place on Election Day), or (vote before Election Day by early voting or mail-in ballot)?
Vote Early voting/ Already
in person mail-in ballot voted (vol.) No opinion
10/26/12 RV 54 41 4 1
4. (AMONG LIKELY VOTERS) If the presidential election were being held today and the candidates were (Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats) and (Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, the Republicans), for whom would you vote? Would you lean toward (Obama) or toward (Romney)? (ASKED IF ALREADY VOTED) For whom did you vote?
NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE – likely voters
Other Neither Would not No
Obama Romney (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin.
10/26/12 LV 51 47 1 1 0 1
9/16/12 LV 52 44 1 2 0 1
5. (IF SUPPORT OBAMA OR ROMNEY) Will you definitely vote for (OBAMA/ROMNEY), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for (CANDIDATE NOT NAMED)? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Would you say (there’s a good chance) you'll change your mind, or would you say (it’s pretty unlikely)?
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
vote for NET Good Unlikely opinion
10/26/12 LV 93 6 2 4 1
9/16/12 LV 88 11 3 8 *
9/16/12 RV 85 14 5 9 1
10/25/08 RV 90 9 3 5 2
9/21/08 RV 81 18 5 12 2
Barack Obama:
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
vote for NET Good Unlikely opinion
10/26/12 LV 94 5 1 4 1
9/16/12 LV 88 11 3 8 *
9/16/12 LV 90 10 3 7 *
10/25/08 RV 91 7 3 4 2
9/21/08 RV 82 17 5 12 1
Mitt Romney:
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
vote for NET Good Unlikely opinion
10/26/12 LV 92 8 3 5 *
9/16/12 LV 86 13 2 11 1
9/16/12 RV 82 17 6 12 1
Compare to: John McCain
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
vote for NET Good Unlikely opinion
10/25/08 RV 89 10 4 6 2
9/21/08 RV 80 18 5 13 2
6. (IF SUPPORT OBAMA OR ROMENY) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Obama/Romney) somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic --- No
NET Very Smwhat NET Not so Not at all opinion
Barack Obama:
10/26/12 LV 95 70 25 4 3 1 1
9/16/12 LV 94 64 30 6 5 1 0
9/16/12 RV 92 61 31 8 7 1 0
10/25/08 RV 97 70 28 3 2 * 0
9/21/08 RV 96 64 32 4 4 0 *
Mitt Romney:
10/26/12 LV 93 56 37 7 4 2 *
9/16/12 LV 90 48 42 9 5 4 1
9/16/12 RV 85 45 40 14 10 5 1
7. (AMONG LIKELY VOTERS) For each item I name, please tell me how important it will be in your vote for President. The first is (ITEM). Will that be extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or less important than that?
10/26/12 – summary table - among likely voters
-- More Important -- -- Less important-- No
NET Extremely Very NET Somewhat Less op.
a. The economy 93 57 36 6 6 * *
b. Spending on the military 68 29 39 32 26 6 *
c. The federal budget deficit 81 42 39 19 15 4 *
d. Medicare, the government
health insurance program for
seniors 76 36 39 24 19 5 *
e. Social issues such as abortion
and gay marriage 52 26 26 47 24 23 1
f. International affairs 68 26 42 32 27 5 *
g. Taxes 77 37 40 23 20 3 *
Trend:
a. The economy
-- More Important -- - Less important - No
NET Extremely Very NET Somewhat Less op.
10/26/12 LV 93 57 36 6 6 * *
9/16/12 LV 93 55 38 7 6 1 *
9/16/12 RV 93 54 39 7 6 1 *
b. Spending on the military
-- More Important -- - Less important - No
NET Extremely Very NET Somewhat Less op.
10/26/12 LV 68 29 39 32 26 6 *
9/16/12 LV 70 32 38 30 24 6 *
9/16/12 RV 70 32 38 29 23 6 1
c. The federal budget deficit
-- More Important -- - Less important - No
NET Extremely Very NET Somewhat Less op.
10/26/12 LV 81 42 39 19 15 4 *
9/16/12 LV 80 44 36 20 17 2 1
9/16/12 RV 78 43 36 20 17 3 1
d. Medicare, the government health insurance program for seniors
-- More Important -- - Less important - No
NET Extremely Very NET Somewhat Less op.
10/26/12 LV 76 36 39 24 19 5 *
9/16/12 LV 77 41 35 23 18 5 *
9/16/12 RV 77 41 36 23 18 5 *
e. Social issues such as abortion and gay marriage
-- More Important -- - Less important - No
NET Extremely Very NET Somewhat Less op.
10/26/12 LV 51 26 26 47 23 24 2
9/16/12 LV 50 29 21 49 23 26 1
9/16/12 RV 49 28 21 50 22 28 1
f. International affairs
-- More Important -- - Less important - No
NET Extremely Very NET Somewhat Less op.
10/26/12 LV 66 25 41 33 27 6 1
9/16/12 LV 76 29 47 23 20 4 1
9/16/12 RV 71 27 44 27 22 5 2
g. Taxes
-- More Important -- - Less important - No
NET Extremely Very NET Somewhat Less op.
10/26/12 LV 76 36 40 23 20 4 *
9/16/12 LV 73 34 40 26 22 4 *
9/16/12 RV 76 34 41 24 20 4 *
8. (AMONG LIKELY VOTERS) Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you trust to do a better job [ITEM] – (Obama) or (Romney)?
10/26/12 - Summary Table - among likely voters
Both Neither No
Obama Romney (vol.) (vol.) opinion
a. Handling the economy 46 48 2 2 3
b. Handling military spending 48 46 1 2 3
c. Determining the future of the
Medicare program 52 42 1 3 3
d. Dealing with the federal
budget deficit 44 49 2 3 2
e. Dealing with social issues such
as abortion and gay marriage 56 35 2 4 4
f. Handling taxes 49 46 1 2 2
g. Handling international affairs 53 41 2 2 3
Trend:
a. Handling the economy
Both Neither No
Obama Romney (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/26/12 LV 46 48 2 2 3
9/16/12 LV 48 45 1 3 2
9/16/12 RV 47 45 1 5 2
b. Handling military spending
Both Neither No
Obama Romney (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/26/12 LV 48 46 1 2 3
9/16/12 LV 51 44 1 2 2
9/16/12 RV 50 44 1 2 3
c. Determining the future of the Medicare program
Both Neither No
Obama Romney (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/26/12 LV 52 42 1 3 3
9/16/12 LV 52 41 * 3 4
9/16/12 RV 52 39 * 3 5
d. Dealing with the federal budget deficit
Both Neither No
Obama Romney (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/26/12 LV 44 46 2 4 3
9/16/12 LV 47 48 1 3 1
9/16/12 RV 44 48 1 5 3
e. Dealing with social issues such as abortion and gay marriage
Both Neither No
Obama Romney (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/26/12 LV 55 35 1 4 4
9/16/12 LV 56 35 1 4 5
9/16/12 RV 54 34 * 5 6
f. Handling taxes
Both Neither No
Obama Romney (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/26/12 LV 49 44 1 3 3
9/16/12 LV 50 46 * 3 2
9/16/12 RV 49 46 * 3 2
g. Handling international affairs
Both Neither No
Obama Romney (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/26/12 LV 53 40 2 2 3
9/16/12 LV 53 42 * 2 2
9/16/12 RV 53 42 1 2 3
9. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Regardless of who you may support, who do you think better understands the economic problems people in this country are having – (Obama) or (Romney)?
Both Neither No
Obama Romney (vol.) (vol.) opinion
10/26/12 LV 53 40 2 4 1
10/26/12 RV 53 38 2 5 1
9/26/12 LV 54 38 2 6 1
9/16/12 RV 54 37 2 7 1
10. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Now, turning to the U.S. Senate election in Virginia, if the 2012 election for the U.S. Senate were being held today, would you vote for (Tim Kaine, the Democrat) or (George Allen, the Republican)? Which one are you leaning toward right now?
NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE – likely voters
Other Neither Would not No
Kaine Allen (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opinion
10/26/12 LV 51 44 0 2 * 3
9/16/12 LV 51 43 * 2 * 4
NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE – registered voters
Other Neither Would not No
Kaine Allen (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opinion
10/26/12 RV 51 43 0 3 * 4
9/16/12 RV 50 42 * 3 1 4
5/2/12 RV 46 46 1 NA 2 5
5/4/11 RV 46 46 * NA 2 6
11. (IF SUPPORT KAINE OR ALLEN) Will you definitely vote for (KAINE/ALLEN), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for (CANDIDATE NOT NAMED)? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Would you say (there’s a good chance) you'll change your mind, or would you say (it’s pretty unlikely)?
Definitely ------- Change mind ------- No
vote NET Good chance Unlikely opinion
Tim Kaine:
10/26/12 LV 84 13 5 8 3
10/26/12 RV 82 15 6 9 3
9/16/12 LV 79 18 7 11 3
9/16/12 RV 76 21 9 12 3
10/26/05 LV 80 18 7 11 1
9/9/05 LV 59 40 16 24 2
9/9/05 RV 54 44 21 23 3
George Allen:
10/26/12 LV 85 13 4 10 2
10/26/12 RV 82 15 5 10 3
9/16/12 LV 76 22 4 19 *
9/16/12 RV 76 22 4 18 2
10/26/00 LV 78 21 10 11 1
8/27/00 LV 68 28 12 16 3
8/27/00 RV 63 33 16 17 3
12. (IF SUPPORT KAINE OR ALLEN) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Kaine/Allen), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic --- No
NET Very Smwhat NET Not so Not at all opinion
Tim Kaine:
10/26/12 LV 90 47 43 9 6 3 1
10/26/12 RV 87 44 43 12 8 4 1
9/16/12 LV 85 40 45 14 12 2 2
9/16/12 RV 82 39 43 17 14 2 1
5/2/12 RV 75 24 51 24 18 6 2
George Allen:
10/26/12 LV 87 44 43 12 8 4 *
10/26/12 RV 85 43 42 14 9 5 *
9/16/12 LV 84 39 44 15 13 2 1
9/16/12 RV 82 37 45 16 14 2 2
5/2/12 RV 72 17 55 27 21 5 1
Compare to – 10/12/06 likely voters in Senate race:
---Enthusiastic---- --Not enthusiastic--- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all opin.
George Allen 90 43 47 9 7 2 1
James Webb 84 25 60 15 12 3 *
10/26/05 likely voters in governor’s race:
---Enthusiastic---- --Not enthusiastic--- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all opin.
Tim Kaine 86 30 56 13 11 2 1
Jerry Kilgore 85 27 58 14 13 2 1
13. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Regardless of who you may support, who do you think [ITEM] – (Kaine) or (Allen)?
10/26/12 - Summary Table - among likely voters
Both Neither No
Kaine Allen (vol.) (vol.) opinion
a. Would work better with (Democrats)
and (Republicans) in Congress 49 37 1 2 10
b. Seems like the more friendly and
likable person 48 36 4 2 11
c. Better understands the economic
problems people in Virginia are having 47 40 3 3 7
10/26/12 - Summary Table - among registered voters
Both Neither No
Kaine Allen (vol.) (vol.) opinion
a. Would work better with (Democrats)
and (Republicans) in Congress 48 37 1 3 11
b. Seems like the more friendly and
likable person 46 35 4 2 12
c. Better understands the economic
problems people in Virginia are having 46 39 3 4 8
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
10/26/12 LV 53 36 17 46 8 38 2
10/26/12 RV 53 35 18 46 8 37 2
10/26/12 54 36 19 42 9 33 4
9/16/12 LV 54 35 19 46 9 37 *
9/16/12 RV 53 32 21 46 9 37 1
9/16/12 52 31 21 43 9 34 5
5/2/12 RV 50 32 18 47 13 34 2
5/2/12 53 32 21 44 13 30 3
5/4/11 52 29 23 43 12 31 5
10/25/09 RV 57 37 20 40 12 28 3
10/7/09 RV 58 37 21 39 11 28 3
9/17/09 LV 53 38 15 47 11 36 1
8/14/09 RV 57 39 17 41 11 31 2
15a. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Changing topics, would you say you, yourself are better off financially than you were when Obama became president, not as well off, or in about the same shape as then financially?
Better off Not as well off About the same(vol.) No opinion
10/26/12 LV 24 33 42 1
10/26/12 RV 24 32 43 1
15b. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) If Romney had been president since 2009 instead of Obama, do you think you yourself would be better off financially than you are now, not as well off, or in about the same shape financially?
Better off Not as well off About the same(vol.) No opinion
10/26/12 LV 29 30 34 7
10/26/12 RV 28 30 35 7
16. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) So far during this campaign, do you think (Obama/Romney) has been mainly (attacking his opponent) or mainly (addressing the issues)?
a. Obama
Attacking Addressing No
his opponent the issues opinion
10/26/12 LV 50 45 5
10/26/12 RV 48 45 6
b. Romney
Attacking Addressing No
his opponent the issues opinion
10/26/12 LV 53 42 5
10/26/12 RV 54 40 6
17. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the [CANDIDATE] campaign, either by phone, in-person, or online asking you for your support, or not?
a. Obama
Yes No No opinion
10/26/12 LV 44 54 2
10/26/12 RV 43 55 2
9/16/12 LV 36 63 2
9/16/12 RV 33 65 1
b. Romney
Yes No No opinion
10/26/12 LV 41 57 2
10/26/12 RV 40 58 2
9/16/12 LV 32 67 1
9/16/12 RV 31 68 1
Compare to 2008:
Obama:
Yes No No opinion
10/25/08 LV 49 50 1
10/25/08 RV 48 52 1
McCain
10/25/08 LV 34 66 1
10/25/08 RV 31 68 1
18a. (IF CONTACTED BY OBAMA CAMPAIGN) When was the last time you were contacted, within the last week, within the last month or longer ago than that?
Within last Within last Longer No
week month ago opinion
10/26/12 LV 67 28 3 2
10/26/12 RV 67 27 4 2
17a/18a NET:
--------------- Yes ----------------- Not No
NET Last week Last month Longer Don’t know contacted op.
10/26/12 LV 44 30 12 1 1 54 2
10/26/12 RV 43 29 12 2 1 55 2
18b. (IF CONTACTED BY ROMNEY CAMPAIGN) When was the last time you were contacted, within the last week, within the last month or longer ago than that?
Within last Within last Longer No
week month ago opinion
10/26/12 LV 72 23 3 2
10/26/12 RV 72 23 3 1
17b/18b NET:
--------------- Yes ----------------- Not No
NET Last week Last month Longer Don’t know contacted op.
10/26/12 LV 41 30 9 1 1 57 2
10/26/12 RV 40 29 9 1 1 58 2
On another subject,
19. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Generally speaking, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of (NAME)?
10/26/12 – Summary Table – among likely voters
------- Favorable ------- ------ Unfavorable ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
a. George Allen 50 21 29 37 19 18 13
b. Tim Kaine 57 27 30 33 17 17 10
c. Barack Obama 57 42 16 41 9 31 2
d. Mitt Romney 51 30 22 44 13 32 4
10/26/12 – Summary Table – among registered voters
------- Favorable ------- ------ Unfavorable ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
a. George Allen 48 20 28 37 19 18 15
b. Tim Kaine 55 26 30 33 16 16 12
c. Barack Obama 58 41 17 40 9 30 3
d. Mitt Romney 50 28 22 45 13 32 5
Trend where available:
a. George Allen
------- Favorable ------- ------ Unfavorable ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
10/26/12 LV 50 21 29 37 19 18 13
10/26/12 RV 48 20 28 37 19 18 15
9/16/12 LV 50 18 32 37 17 20 13
9/16/12 RV 51 17 34 35 16 19 14
5/2/12 RV 47 12 35 31 18 13 22
5/2/12 46 12 34 31 18 13 24
5/4/11 RV 52 16 36 28 15 13 20
5/4/11 51 16 35 26 15 11 23
10/12/06 LV 53 NA NA 43 NA NA 4
9/9/05 RV 58 NA NA 28 NA NA 14
9/16/97 60 NA NA 26 NA NA 13
9/28/93 RV 43 NA NA 36 NA NA 21
b. Tim Kaine
------- Favorable ------- ------ Unfavorable ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
10/26/12 LV 57 27 30 33 17 17 10
10/26/12 RV 55 26 30 33 16 16 12
9/16/12 LV 54 24 31 35 15 20 10
9/16/12 RV 54 22 32 34 16 18 11
5/2/12 RV 41 13 27 41 22 19 18
5/2/12 41 15 26 39 21 18 20
5/4/11 RV 57 19 38 28 16 12 15
5/4/11 56 17 38 28 16 12 17
10/12/06 LV 67 NA NA 23 NA NA 10
10/26/05 LV 58 NA NA 33 NA NA 8
9/9/05 RV 55 NA NA 25 NA NA 21
c. Barack Obama
------- Favorable ------- ------ Unfavorable ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
10/26/12 LV 57 42 16 41 9 31 2
10/26/12 RV 58 41 17 40 9 30 3
9/16/12 LV 57 43 14 43 10 33 *
9/16/12 RV 57 40 17 42 10 32 1
5/4/11 RV 54 34 20 43 13 29 3
5/4/11 55 34 22 41 13 27 4
10/25/08 RV 67 46 21 30 8 22 3
d. Mitt Romney
------- Favorable ------- ------ Unfavorable ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
10/26/12 LV 51 30 22 44 13 32 4
10/26/12 RV 50 28 22 45 13 32 5
9/16/12 LV 48 27 21 49 12 37 3
9/16/12 RV 47 25 21 49 14 34 5
20. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Will one reason for your vote for U.S. Senate be to express (support for) President Obama, to express (opposition to) Obama, or is Obama not a factor in your choice?
Support Opposition Obama not a factor No opinion
10/26/12 LV 25 13 59 2
10/26/12 RV 26 12 59 3
9/16/12 RV 29 22 48 1
9/16/12 RV 28 20 50 2
5/4/11 RV 26 21 51 2
5/4/11 27 20 50 2
Compare to “express support for/opposition to Bush” 2006:
10/12/06 LV 12 25 63 *
901. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as:
Democrat Republican Independent Other No op.
10/26/12 LV 31 27 35 5 1
9/16/12 LV 35 26 33 5 1
10/25/09 LV 31 30 34 4 1
10/7/09 LV 31 30 36 2 1
9/17/09 LV 32 29 34 5 *
8/14/09 LV 27 34 34 4 1
10/25/08 LV 36 28 33 4 *
9/21/08 LV 33 28 34 5 1
10/12/06 LV 33 32 32 3 *
10/26/05 LV 33 37 26 3 1
9/9/05 LV 34 37 25 4 *
10/25/01 LV 31 37 26 5 1
8/23/01 LV 35 38 24 3 *
10/26/00 LV 33 32 28 6 1
8/27/00 LV 30 36 29 5 1
10/21/97 LV 31 32 31 5 1
9/16/97 LV 30 31 33 4 1
11/2/89 LV 33 32 31 3 1
10/26/12 RV 31 26 36 6 1
9/16/12 RV 33 26 35 5 1
5/2/12 RV 31 27 36 5 2
5/4/11 RV 32 24 35 6 3
10/25/09 RV 34 25 35 5 1
10/7/09 RV 33 27 35 4 1
9/17/09 RV 34 27 32 5 1
8/14/09 RV 31 29 35 4 1
10/25/08 RV 36 28 33 4 *
9/21/08 RV 34 25 35 6 1
10/8/07 RV 32 29 34 4 1
6/3/07 RV 33 29 29 4 4
9/9/05 RV 32 34 29 4 *
8/23/01 RV 32 33 29 5 1
8/27/00 RV 29 34 32 5 1
9/16/97 RV 28 31 35 4 1
9/28/93 RV 30 30 35 4 1
***END***
