Washington Post-ABC News Poll

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by conventional and cellular telephone, November 30 to December 4, 2011, among a random sample of 858 potential Iowa Republican caucus-goers. The results have a four-point error margin for all potential voters, and six points for the sample of 356 likely voters. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, NY.

*= less than 0.5 percent

PV=potential voters

LV=likely voters

1. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) Are you registered to vote in Iowa at your present address, or not?

2. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) Are you registered as a (Democrat), (Republican), (Independent), or what?

3. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will attend the Iowa Republican presidential caucus that will be held in your precinct in January. Are you absolutely certain you will attend, will you probably attend, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

4. How closely are you following the 2012 presidential campaign: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?

             ---- Closely -----   ---- Not closely -----     No
             NET   Very   Smwt.   NET   Not too   At all   opinion
12/4/11 PV   83     37     46     16       11        5        *
12/4/11 LV   94     54     40      5        4        1        1
12/17/07 LV  95     51     44      5        4        1        0
11/18/07 LV  93     48     44      7        6        1        0
7/31/07  LV  88     35     53     12       10        2        0
*2011 “2012.” 2007 “2008.”

5. Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice of candidates for the Republican nomination for president - are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied?

            ----- Satisfied -----   --- Dissatisfied ----     No
            NET   Very   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Very   opinion
12/4/11 PV  63     15       48      34       21       13       3
12/4/11 LV  76     24       52      22       16        7       1

6. If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were: (Michele Bachmann), (Herman Cain*), (Newt Gingrich), (Jon Huntsman), (Ron Paul), (Rick Perry), (Mitt Romney), (Rick Santorum), who would you support? Which candidate are you leaning toward?

12/4/11 - NET LEANED PREFERENCE

                   Potential       Likely
                  caucus-goers   caucus-goers
Newt Gingrich          28            33
Mitt Romney            18            18
Ron Paul               16            18
Rick Perry             12            11
Michele Bachmann       10             8 
Rick Santorum           4             7
Jon Huntsman            2             2
Other                   1             *
None of these           4             1
Would not vote          *             0
No opinion              4             3

*Cain supporters were reallocated based on their second choice.

7. Will you definitely support (NAMED CANDIATE) as your first choice, or is there a chance you could change your mind and support someone else as your first choice? IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND: (would you say there’s a good chance) you'll change your mind, or (is it pretty unlikely)?

           Definitely   -Chance change mind -     No 
            support     NET   Unlikely   Good   opinion
12/4/11 PV    35        61       26       35       4
12/4/11 LV    45        52       26       27       3

Among potential Republican caucus-goers who support … 

           Definitely   -Chance change mind -     No 
            support     NET   Unlikely   Good   opinion
Gingrich      37        59       26       34       4
Romney        28        70       31       39       2
Paul          50        48       17       30       2  

8. How enthusiastic are you about supporting (NAMED CANDIDATE) - very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?

              --- Enthusiastic --   ---- Not enthusiastic ----     No
              NET   Very   Fairly   NET   Not too   Not at all   opinion
12/4/11 PV    78     24      54     21      17           5          1
12/4/11 LV    92     36      56      8       7           1          *
12/17/07 LV   94     45      49      5       4           1          1
11/18/07 LV   91     34      57      8       8           1          1

Among potential Republican caucus-goers who support … 

              --- Enthusiastic --   ---- Not enthusiastic ----     No
              NET   Very   Fairly   NET   Not too   Not at all   opinion
Gingrich      81     27      54     18      16           2          1
Romney        73     15      58     27      23           4          0
Paul          81     30      51     19      11           8          0

9. Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president? (MULTIPLE RESPONSES ACCEPTED.)

                             12/4/11
                    Potential        Likely
                   caucus-goers   caucus-goers
Michele Bachmann        24             23
Herman Cain             22             18
Mitt Romney             15             18
Newt Gingrich           10             12
Ron Paul                12             16
Rick Perry              12             15
Jon Huntsman             8             11
Rick Santorum            6              8
None of these           31             26
No opinion               4              4

10. Which of the following is the single most important issue in your choice for the Republican candidate for president? Is it (the economy and jobs), (the federal budget deficit), (immigration), (taxes), (social issues like abortion and gay marriage), (the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan), or something else?

                                                         12/4/11
                                                Potential        Likely
                                               caucus-goers   caucus-goers
Economy and jobs                                    44             38
Federal budget deficit                              25             28
Social issues like abortion and gay marriage        11             15
Taxes                                                6              4
Immigration                                          3              3
Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan                         2              2
Social Security/Medicare/elderly care                1              *
Something else (SPECIFY)                             5              7
All of them                                          2              1
No opinion                                           1              1

11. Regardless of who you may support, which of the Republican candidates do you think (ITEM)?

Full item wording:
a. best understands the problems of people like you
b. is the most honest and trustworthy
c. has the best experience to be president
d. has the best chance to defeat Barack Obama in the general election
e. best reflects the core values of the Republican Party 
f. is most likely to stand up for what he or she believes in

12/4/11 – Summary table, potential Republican caucus-goers*

12/4/11 – Summary table, potential Republican caucus-goers*

                    Understands   Honest   Experience   Defeat   Values   Stand up
Newt Gingrich           17          11         42         27       23        21
Mitt Romney             10          14         18         24       15        11
Ron Paul                17          19         10          6       12        19
Rick Perry              10           9          8          7        8        11
Michele Bachmann        16          16          3          3       13        16
Rick Santorum            3           5          1          1        5         4
Jon Huntsman             1           2          1          *        1         1
Other                    *           0          *          *        *         *
All of them              2           2          1          8        2         5
Any 2 or more equally    2           2          3          4        2         2
None of them            11           9          4          7        4         3
No opinion              10          10          9         12       15         7

12/4/11 – Summary table, likely Republican caucus-goers*

                    Understands   Honest   Experience   Defeat   Values   Stand up
Newt Gingrich           22          13         43         29       25        24
Mitt Romney             12          12         16         24       12        10
Ron Paul                19          23         13          8       14        22
Rick Perry               8           8          9          6        9         9
Michele Bachmann        15          17          2          2       13        13
Rick Santorum            5           9          2          1        9         6
Jon Huntsman             1           2          1          1        2         1
Other                    *           0          1          0        0         0
All of them              3           3          1          9        2         6
Any 2 or more equally    2           3          3          4        2         3
None of them             7           4          2          6        2         1
No opinion               7           6          6         11       12         5

*Those picking Cain were reallocated based on their second choice on each attribute.

12. Regardless of who you may support, which of the Republican candidates do you trust most to handle (ITEM)?

Full item wording:
a. The economy
b. Immigration issues
c. Social issues, such as abortion and gay marriage

12/4/11 – Summary table, potential Republican caucus-goers*

                      Economy   Immigration   Social issues
Newt Gingrich           27          20             13
Mitt Romney             20           9             14
Ron Paul                16          11             11
Rick Perry               9          21              9
Michele Bachmann         8           8             22
Rick Santorum            1           3              7
Jon Huntsman             1           1              2
Other                    0           0              *
All of them              *           *              *
Any 2 or more equally    3           2              1
None of them             6           6              6
No opinion               8          18             15

12/4/11 – Summary table, likely Republican caucus-goers*

                      Economy   Immigration   Social issues
Newt Gingrich           31          27             14
Mitt Romney             20           8             12
Ron Paul                21          13             13
Rick Perry               8          18              9
Michele Bachmann         6           7             23
Rick Santorum            2           4             12
Jon Huntsman             1           1              2
Other                    0           0              0
All of them              0           *              1
Any 2 or more equally    4           3              2
None of them             3           3              2
No opinion               5          15             10

*Those picking Cain were reallocated based on their second choice on each issue.

13. For each item I name, please tell me if it is a major reason to (support) that candidate, a major reason to (oppose) that candidate, or not a major factor?

12/4/11 – Summary table, potential Republican caucus-goers
 
                                                    Major       Major     Not a   
                                                  reason to   reason to   major    No
                                                   support      oppose    factor   op.
a. Mitt Romney’s policies on health care when
   he was governor of Massachusetts                   18          33        36     13
b. Mitt Romney’s religious beliefs                     8          13        74      5
c. Mitt Romney’s business experience                  57           7        30      6
d. Newt Gingrich’s political experience               61          13        22      4
e. Newt Gingrich’s marital history                     3          16        76      5
f. Newt Gingrich’s position on illegal 
   immigration                                        34          16        35     15
g. Ron Paul’s views on limited government             55          14        24      7 
h. Ron Paul’s opposition to U.S. military   
   interventions overseas                             27          36        30      6

12/4/11 – Summary table, likely Republican caucus-goers
 
                                                    Major       Major     Not a   
                                                  reason to   reason to   major    No
                                                   support      oppose    factor   op.
a. Mitt Romney’s policies on health care when
   he was governor of Massachusetts                   14          45        34      7
b. Mitt Romney’s religious beliefs                     4          15        78      2
c. Mitt Romney’s business experience                  61           7        27      5
d. Newt Gingrich’s political experience               70          11        15      4
e. Newt Gingrich’s marital history                     1          16        79      3
f. Newt Gingrich’s position on illegal 
   immigration                                        38          15        36     10
g. Ron Paul’s views on limited government             66          14        17      3
h. Ron Paul’s opposition to U.S. military   
   interventions overseas                             22          46        28      4  

14. Have you personally been contacted by a representative of any of the campaigns, either by phone or in-person, asking you for your support, or not? IF YES: Which ones? (ACCEPT MULTIPLE ANSWERS)

                                     12/4/11
                            Potential        Likely
                           caucus-goers   caucus-goers
Yes, total                      45             58
   Yes, Michele Bachmann        26             32
   Yes, Mitt Romney             21             31
   Yes, Ron Paul                21             29
   Yes, Rick Perry              20             30
   Yes, Herman Cain             17             23
   Yes, Newt Gingrich           13             19
   Yes, Rick Santorum           10             15
   Yes, Jon Huntsman             5              7
   Yes, Other (SPECIFY)          3              3
No, None of them                51             40
No opinion                       4              2

15. Have you watched any of the debates among the Republican candidates for president that have been held recently, or not?

 
             Yes, have watched   No, have not watched   No opinion
12/4/11 PV           53                   47                 * 
12/4/11 LV           68                   32                 0

16. On another subject, what is your view of the Tea Party political movement - would you say you support it strongly, support it somewhat, oppose it somewhat or oppose it strongly?

       
             -------- Support --------   --------- Oppose --------     No 
             NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opinion
12/4/11 PV   69      26         43       23       14          9         8
12/4/11 LV   77      35         42       17       11          7         6

***END***

© The Washington Post Company