Washington Post-ABC News Poll
This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by conventional and cellular telephone, November 30 to December 4, 2011, among a random sample of 858 potential Iowa Republican caucus-goers. The results have a four-point error margin for all potential voters, and six points for the sample of 356 likely voters. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, NY.
*= less than 0.5 percent
PV=potential voters
LV=likely voters
1. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) Are you registered to vote in Iowa at your present address, or not?
2. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) Are you registered as a (Democrat), (Republican), (Independent), or what?
3. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will attend the Iowa Republican presidential caucus that will be held in your precinct in January. Are you absolutely certain you will attend, will you probably attend, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?
4. How closely are you following the 2012 presidential campaign: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?
---- Closely ----- ---- Not closely ----- No
NET Very Smwt. NET Not too At all opinion
12/4/11 PV 83 37 46 16 11 5 *
12/4/11 LV 94 54 40 5 4 1 1
12/17/07 LV 95 51 44 5 4 1 0
11/18/07 LV 93 48 44 7 6 1 0
7/31/07 LV 88 35 53 12 10 2 0
*2011 “2012.” 2007 “2008.”
5. Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice of candidates for the Republican nomination for president - are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied?
----- Satisfied ----- --- Dissatisfied ---- No
NET Very Somewhat NET Somewhat Very opinion
12/4/11 PV 63 15 48 34 21 13 3
12/4/11 LV 76 24 52 22 16 7 1
6. If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were: (Michele Bachmann), (Herman Cain*), (Newt Gingrich), (Jon Huntsman), (Ron Paul), (Rick Perry), (Mitt Romney), (Rick Santorum), who would you support? Which candidate are you leaning toward?
12/4/11 - NET LEANED PREFERENCE
Potential Likely
caucus-goers caucus-goers
Newt Gingrich 28 33
Mitt Romney 18 18
Ron Paul 16 18
Rick Perry 12 11
Michele Bachmann 10 8
Rick Santorum 4 7
Jon Huntsman 2 2
Other 1 *
None of these 4 1
Would not vote * 0
No opinion 4 3
*Cain supporters were reallocated based on their second choice.
7. Will you definitely support (NAMED CANDIATE) as your first choice, or is there a chance you could change your mind and support someone else as your first choice? IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND: (would you say there’s a good chance) you'll change your mind, or (is it pretty unlikely)?
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
support NET Unlikely Good opinion
12/4/11 PV 35 61 26 35 4
12/4/11 LV 45 52 26 27 3
Among potential Republican caucus-goers who support …
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
support NET Unlikely Good opinion
Gingrich 37 59 26 34 4
Romney 28 70 31 39 2
Paul 50 48 17 30 2
8. How enthusiastic are you about supporting (NAMED CANDIDATE) - very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
12/4/11 PV 78 24 54 21 17 5 1
12/4/11 LV 92 36 56 8 7 1 *
12/17/07 LV 94 45 49 5 4 1 1
11/18/07 LV 91 34 57 8 8 1 1
Among potential Republican caucus-goers who support …
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
Gingrich 81 27 54 18 16 2 1
Romney 73 15 58 27 23 4 0
Paul 81 30 51 19 11 8 0
9. Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president? (MULTIPLE RESPONSES ACCEPTED.)
12/4/11
Potential Likely
caucus-goers caucus-goers
Michele Bachmann 24 23
Herman Cain 22 18
Mitt Romney 15 18
Newt Gingrich 10 12
Ron Paul 12 16
Rick Perry 12 15
Jon Huntsman 8 11
Rick Santorum 6 8
None of these 31 26
No opinion 4 4
10. Which of the following is the single most important issue in your choice for the Republican candidate for president? Is it (the economy and jobs), (the federal budget deficit), (immigration), (taxes), (social issues like abortion and gay marriage), (the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan), or something else?
12/4/11
Potential Likely
caucus-goers caucus-goers
Economy and jobs 44 38
Federal budget deficit 25 28
Social issues like abortion and gay marriage 11 15
Taxes 6 4
Immigration 3 3
Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan 2 2
Social Security/Medicare/elderly care 1 *
Something else (SPECIFY) 5 7
All of them 2 1
No opinion 1 1
11. Regardless of who you may support, which of the Republican candidates do you think (ITEM)?
Full item wording:
a. best understands the problems of people like you
b. is the most honest and trustworthy
c. has the best experience to be president
d. has the best chance to defeat Barack Obama in the general election
e. best reflects the core values of the Republican Party
f. is most likely to stand up for what he or she believes in
12/4/11 – Summary table, potential Republican caucus-goers*
12/4/11 – Summary table, potential Republican caucus-goers*
Understands Honest Experience Defeat Values Stand up
Newt Gingrich 17 11 42 27 23 21
Mitt Romney 10 14 18 24 15 11
Ron Paul 17 19 10 6 12 19
Rick Perry 10 9 8 7 8 11
Michele Bachmann 16 16 3 3 13 16
Rick Santorum 3 5 1 1 5 4
Jon Huntsman 1 2 1 * 1 1
Other * 0 * * * *
All of them 2 2 1 8 2 5
Any 2 or more equally 2 2 3 4 2 2
None of them 11 9 4 7 4 3
No opinion 10 10 9 12 15 7
12/4/11 – Summary table, likely Republican caucus-goers*
Understands Honest Experience Defeat Values Stand up
Newt Gingrich 22 13 43 29 25 24
Mitt Romney 12 12 16 24 12 10
Ron Paul 19 23 13 8 14 22
Rick Perry 8 8 9 6 9 9
Michele Bachmann 15 17 2 2 13 13
Rick Santorum 5 9 2 1 9 6
Jon Huntsman 1 2 1 1 2 1
Other * 0 1 0 0 0
All of them 3 3 1 9 2 6
Any 2 or more equally 2 3 3 4 2 3
None of them 7 4 2 6 2 1
No opinion 7 6 6 11 12 5
*Those picking Cain were reallocated based on their second choice on each attribute.
12. Regardless of who you may support, which of the Republican candidates do you trust most to handle (ITEM)?
Full item wording:
a. The economy
b. Immigration issues
c. Social issues, such as abortion and gay marriage
12/4/11 – Summary table, potential Republican caucus-goers*
Economy Immigration Social issues
Newt Gingrich 27 20 13
Mitt Romney 20 9 14
Ron Paul 16 11 11
Rick Perry 9 21 9
Michele Bachmann 8 8 22
Rick Santorum 1 3 7
Jon Huntsman 1 1 2
Other 0 0 *
All of them * * *
Any 2 or more equally 3 2 1
None of them 6 6 6
No opinion 8 18 15
12/4/11 – Summary table, likely Republican caucus-goers*
Economy Immigration Social issues
Newt Gingrich 31 27 14
Mitt Romney 20 8 12
Ron Paul 21 13 13
Rick Perry 8 18 9
Michele Bachmann 6 7 23
Rick Santorum 2 4 12
Jon Huntsman 1 1 2
Other 0 0 0
All of them 0 * 1
Any 2 or more equally 4 3 2
None of them 3 3 2
No opinion 5 15 10
*Those picking Cain were reallocated based on their second choice on each issue.
13. For each item I name, please tell me if it is a major reason to (support) that candidate, a major reason to (oppose) that candidate, or not a major factor?
12/4/11 – Summary table, potential Republican caucus-goers
Major Major Not a
reason to reason to major No
support oppose factor op.
a. Mitt Romney’s policies on health care when
he was governor of Massachusetts 18 33 36 13
b. Mitt Romney’s religious beliefs 8 13 74 5
c. Mitt Romney’s business experience 57 7 30 6
d. Newt Gingrich’s political experience 61 13 22 4
e. Newt Gingrich’s marital history 3 16 76 5
f. Newt Gingrich’s position on illegal
immigration 34 16 35 15
g. Ron Paul’s views on limited government 55 14 24 7
h. Ron Paul’s opposition to U.S. military
interventions overseas 27 36 30 6
12/4/11 – Summary table, likely Republican caucus-goers
Major Major Not a
reason to reason to major No
support oppose factor op.
a. Mitt Romney’s policies on health care when
he was governor of Massachusetts 14 45 34 7
b. Mitt Romney’s religious beliefs 4 15 78 2
c. Mitt Romney’s business experience 61 7 27 5
d. Newt Gingrich’s political experience 70 11 15 4
e. Newt Gingrich’s marital history 1 16 79 3
f. Newt Gingrich’s position on illegal
immigration 38 15 36 10
g. Ron Paul’s views on limited government 66 14 17 3
h. Ron Paul’s opposition to U.S. military
interventions overseas 22 46 28 4
14. Have you personally been contacted by a representative of any of the campaigns, either by phone or in-person, asking you for your support, or not? IF YES: Which ones? (ACCEPT MULTIPLE ANSWERS)
12/4/11
Potential Likely
caucus-goers caucus-goers
Yes, total 45 58
Yes, Michele Bachmann 26 32
Yes, Mitt Romney 21 31
Yes, Ron Paul 21 29
Yes, Rick Perry 20 30
Yes, Herman Cain 17 23
Yes, Newt Gingrich 13 19
Yes, Rick Santorum 10 15
Yes, Jon Huntsman 5 7
Yes, Other (SPECIFY) 3 3
No, None of them 51 40
No opinion 4 2
15. Have you watched any of the debates among the Republican candidates for president that have been held recently, or not?
Yes, have watched No, have not watched No opinion
12/4/11 PV 53 47 *
12/4/11 LV 68 32 0
16. On another subject, what is your view of the Tea Party political movement - would you say you support it strongly, support it somewhat, oppose it somewhat or oppose it strongly?
-------- Support -------- --------- Oppose -------- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
12/4/11 PV 69 26 43 23 14 9 8
12/4/11 LV 77 35 42 17 11 7 6
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