Washington Post-ABC News Poll

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 27-30, 2012, among a random national sample of 1,774 adults and 1,288 likely voters, including landline and cell phone-only respondents. Results have a three point error margin for likely voters. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York.

Analysis

Interactive data

RV = registered voters; LV=likely voters

*= less than 0.5 percent

1. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) How closely are you following the 2012 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not so closely, or not closely at all?

              ---- Closely -----   ---- Not closely -----     No
              NET   Very   Smwt    NET   Not so    At all   opinion
10/30/12 LV   99     66     33      1       1         *        0
10/29/12 LV   99     69     30      1       1         *        0
10/28/12 LV   99     69     30      1       1         *        *
10/27/12 LV   99     68     31      1       1         *        *
10/26/12 LV   99     66     33      1       1         *        0
10/25/12 LV   95     62     33      5       3         2        *
10/24/12 LV   94     63     32      5       3         2        *
10/23/12 LV   93     63     31      6       4         2        *
10/22/12 LV   92     64     28      8       5         3        *
10/21/12 LV   92     64     28      8       5         3        *
10/13/12 LV   93     60     33      6       4         2        *
9/29/12  LV   92     54     38      8       6         2        0
9/9/12   LV   87     51     36     13       8         5        1    
5/20/12  RV   82     38     44     18       9         8        *
2/4/12*  RV   79     37     43     20      12         8        *
1/15/12  RV   76     33     43     24      14        10        *
*2/4/12 and previous not “too” closely 
See http://wapo.st/VmRUMK for full trend

2. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

                                                      Don't think  Already 
              Certain  Probably  Chances  Less than   will vote    voted   No
              to vote    vote     50/50     that       (vol.)     (vol.)   op.
10/30/12 RV     75         6        3        2           1          13      *
10/29/12 RV     76         5        4        2           *          12      *
10/28/12 RV     77         5        4        2           1          11      *
10/27/12 RV     79         5        5        2           *           9      *
10/26/12 RV     79         6        5        2           *           8      *
10/25/12 RV     79         6        6        2           1           6      *
10/24/12 RV     79         7        6        2           1           6      *
10/23/12 RV     80         6        6        2           1           5      *
10/22/12 RV     82         5        6        2           1           4      *
10/21/12 RV     84         6        4        2           *           4      *
10/13/12 RV     85         7        4        1           1           1      1
9/29/12  RV     84         7        7        2           *           0      *
9/9/12   RV     83         7        6        4           *          NA      0
8/25/12  RV     81         8        6        3           1                  *
7/8/12   RV     81         9        8        2           *           "      *
See http://wapo.st/VmRUMK for full trend

3. (IF CERTAIN TO VOTE) Do you think you'll (vote in person at your polling place on Election Day), or (vote before Election Day by early voting or mail-in ballot)?

                Vote      Early voting/      Already
              in person   mail-in ballot   voted (vol.)   No opinion
10/30/12 LV      60             22             18              1
10/29/12 LV      61             21             17              1
10/28/12 LV      60             22             15              2
10/27/12 LV      62             24             12              2
10/26/12 LV      62             25             11              2
10/25/12 RV      61             29              8              1
10/24/12 RV      62             29              8              1
10/23/12 RV      62             28              7              2
10/22/12 RV      64             27              6              2
10/21/12 RV      66             27              5              2
10/13/12 RV      67             30              2              1 
See http://wapo.st/VmRUMK for full trend

4. (IF CERTAIN TO VOTE) If the presidential election were being held today and the candidates were (Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats) and (Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, the Republicans), for whom would you vote? Which candidates are you leaning toward, (Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats) or (Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, the Republicans)? (ASKED IF ALREADY VOTED) For whom did you vote?

NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE - among likely voters 

                               Other    Neither     No
              Obama   Romney   (vol.)   (vol.)    opinion
10/30/12 LV    49       49        1        *         1
10/29/12 LV    48       49        1        *         1 
10/28/12 LV    49       49        1        1         1 
10/27/12 LV    48       49        1        1         1 
10/26/12 LV    48       49        1        1         1
10/25/12 LV    48       49        1        1         1
10/24/12 LV    47       50        1        1         1
10/23/12 LV    48       49        *        1         1
10/22/12 LV    48       49        *        2         1
10/21/12 LV    49       48        *        2         1
10/13/12 LV    49       46        1        1         2
9/29/12  LV    49       47        *        2         1
9/9/12   LV    49       48        *        1         2
8/25/12  LV    47       49        1        1         1
7/8/12*  LV    50       47        *        2         2
*7/18/12: "Barack Obama, the Democrat" and "Mitt Romney, the Republican"

5. (IF SUPPORT/VOTED OBAMA OR ROMNEY) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Obama/Romney), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?

              ---- Enthusiastic ---   --- Not enthusiastic ----     No
              NET   Very   Somewhat   NET   Not so   Not at all   opinion
Obama:
10/30/12 LV   96     64       32       3       2          1          *
10/29/12 LV   97     65       32       3       2          1          *
10/28/12 LV   95     66       30       4       2          1          1
10/27/12 LV   95     64       31       4       3          1          1
10/26/12 LV   94     61       33       4       3          1          1
10/25/12 LV   94     59       35       5       3          2          1
10/24/12 LV   96     60       35       4       3          1          *
10/23/12 LV   95     60       35       4       3          1          *
10/22/12 LV   96     62       34       4       3          1          *
10/21/12 LV   96     64       32       4       3          1          *
10/13/12 LV   95     60       35       4       4          1          *
10/13/12 RV   94     55       40       5       4          1          1
9/29/12  RV   91     51       40       9       7          2          0
9/9/12   RV   93     56       38       7       3          3          0
8/25/12  RV   88     48       39      11       7          4          1
7/8/12   RV   91     51       40       8       5          3          1
5/20/12  RV   93     51       41       7       4          4          0

Romney:
10/30/12 LV   95     61       35       4       3          1          *
10/29/12 LV   95     61       34       4       3          2          *
10/28/12 LV   94     61       33       5       4          1          *
10/27/12 LV   95     59       36       5       3          2          *
10/26/12 LV   93     59       35       6       5          2          *
10/25/12 LV   93     58       35       7       5          2          1
10/24/12 LV   93     60       33       7       5          2          1
10/23/12 LV   93     62       31       6       5          1          1
10/22/12 LV   93     62       32       6       4          2          1
10/21/12 LV   93     58       35       6       5          1          1
10/13/12 LV   93     62       31       7       4          2          1
10/13/12 RV   92     59       33       8       5          2          1
9/29/12  RV   87     48       39      13       6          7          *
9/9/12   RV   87     46       40      13       7          6          1
8/25/12  RV   83     42       41      17      12          4          *
7/8/12   RV   85     38       47      15      11          4          *
5/20/12  RV   75     26       48      25      15          9          1
See http://wapo.st/VmRUMK for full trend

5a. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Have you voted for president in any year before this 2012 election, or is this the first year you’ll be voting for president?

              Voted before   First time
10/30/12 LV        94             6    
10/29/12 LV        96             4 
10/28/12 LV        96             4    
10/27/12 LV        93             7
10/26/12 LV        92             8       
Call for full trend.

6. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?

              -------- Approve --------   ------- Disapprove ------     No
              NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opinion
10/30/12 LV   50       30         20      49       10         39         1
10/29/12 LV   50       30         20      49       10         39         1
10/28/12 LV   51       31         20      47        9         39         1
10/27/12 LV   50       30         20      48        8         40         2
10/26/12 LV   50       30         19      48        8         41         2
10/25/12 LV   49       30         19      49        8         41         2
10/24/12 LV   49       30         18      50        9         41         1
10/24/12 RV   50       29         21      48       10         38         3
10/23/12 LV   50       30         19      49        9         40         2
10/23/12 RV   50       29         21      47        9         37         3
10/22/12 LV   49       31         18      49        9         40         2
10/22/12 RV   50       30         20      47       10         38         3
10/21/12 LV   50       31         19      48        8         40         2
10/21/12 RV   51       31         20      47       10         37         2
10/13/12 LV   50       32         18      48        9         40         2
10/13/12 RV   51       30         21      47       10         37         2
10/13/12      50       30         21      44       10         34         6
9/29/12  RV   49       25         24      49       12         37         2
9/29/12       50       26         24      46       12         34         4
9/9/12   RV   48       27         21      50       10         39         2
9/9/12        49       29         20      45       11         35         6
8/25/12  RV   47       26         21      50       13         37         3
8/25/12       50       27         23      46       13         33         4
7/8/12        47       24         24      49       15         34         4
5/20/12       47       26         21      49       13         36         3
4/8/12        50       30         20      45       10         35         6
3/10/12       46       28         18      50       11         39         4
2/4/12        50       29         22      46       11         36         3
1/15/12       48       25         23      48       11         37         4
12/18/11      49       25         24      47       13         34         4
11/3/11       44       22         22      53       15         37         3
10/2/11       42       21         21      54       14         40         4
9/1/11        43       21         22      53       16         38         3
8/9/11*       44       18         26      46        9         37        10
7/17/11       47       25         22      48       14         35         5
6/5/11        47       27         20      49       13         37         4
5/2/11**      56       29         27      38       14         24         6
4/17/11       47       27         21      50       12         37         3
3/13/11       51       27         24      45       12         33         4
1/16/11       54       30         23      43       15         28         3
12/12/10      49       24         25      47       15         32         4
10/28/10      50       27         23      45       11         34         5
10/3/10       50       26         24      47       13         34         3
9/2/10        46       24         22      52       14         38         3
7/11/10       50       28         22      47       12         35         3
6/6/10        52       30         22      45       12         33         4
4/25/10       54       31         23      44       11         33         3
3/26/10       53       34         20      43        8         35         3
2/8/10        51       29         22      46       12         33         3
1/15/10       53       30         24      44       13         32         2
12/13/09      50       31         18      46       13         33         4
11/15/09      56       32         23      42       13         29         2
10/18/09      57       33         23      40       11         29         3
9/12/09       54       35         19      43       12         31         3
8/17/09       57       35         21      40       11         29         3
7/18/09       59       38         22      37        9         28         4
6/21/09       65       36         29      31       10         22         4
4/24/09       69       42         27      26        8         18         4
3/29/09       66       40         26      29        9         20         5
2/22/09       68       43         25      25        8         17         7
*Washington Post
**Washington Post/Pew Research Center

7. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you trust to do a better job handling the economy - (Obama) or (Romney)?

                                Both    Neither     No
              Obama   Romney   (vol.)   (vol.)    opinion
10/30/12 LV    47       49        1        2         2
10/29/12 LV    46       49        1        2         2
10/28/12 LV    47       49        1        2         2
10/27/12 LV    45       50        1        3         2
10/26/12 LV    44       51        1        3         2
10/25/12 LV    44       51        1        3         1
10/24/12 LV    43       52        1        3         2
10/23/12 LV    44       50        1        3         2
10/22/12 LV    45       50        1        2         2        
10/21/12 LV    46       48        1        3         2
10/13/12 LV    48       47        *        2         3
9/29/12  RV    47       47        *        4         2
9/9/12   RV    47       45        *        3         4
8/25/12  RV    43       50        *        4         3
7/8/12   RV    45       48        1        3         3
5/20/12  RV    47       47        *        3         3
4/8/12   RV    44       48        1        4         3
2/4/12   RV    44       50        1        3         2

8. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) ) Regardless of who you may support, who do you think better understands the economic problems people in this country are having - (Obama) or (Romney)?

                                Both    Neither     No
              Obama   Romney   (vol.)   (vol.)    opinion
10/30/12 LV    50       44        1        3         1
10/29/12 LV    49       45        2        3         1
10/28/12 LV    50       44        2        3         1
10/27/12 LV    49       44        2        4         1
10/26/12 LV    48       45        2        4         1
10/25/12 LV    49       47        1        3         1
10/24/12 LV    48       46        2        3         1
10/23/12 LV    50       45        2        2         1
10/22/12 LV    51       44        2        2         1
10/21/12 LV    51       44        2        3         1
10/13/12 LV    51       42        2        4         1
9/29/12  RV    52       39        2        6         1
9/9/12   RV    50       40        3        4         3
8/25/12  RV    47       40        1        9         2 
7/8/12   RV    51       40        2        5         2
5/20/12  RV    48       40        2        8         2
4/8/12   RV    49       38        2        8         2
2/4/12   RV    52       37        2        7         2

9. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) How would you rate [ITEM] overall response to the Hurricane that hit the east coast this week, excellent, good, not so good or poor?

10/30/12 - Summary Table (among likely voters)* 

                        ------ Positive ------   ------- Negative -------   No
                        NET   Excellent   Good   NET   Not so good   Poor   op.
a. The federal 
   government's         73       25        48     8         8          1    19
c. Obama's              78       35        42     8         4          4    15
d. Romney's             44       14        30    21        13          8    35
* Based on interviews 10/30

10. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) In thinking about your vote for president, what's more important - the things Obama has done as president in his first term, or the things you think he would do if elected to a second term?

               Things Obama has    Things Obama would   Both      No
              done in first term   do in second term   (vol.)   opinion
10/30/12 LV*         27                    47            17        9
7/8/12   LV          30                    52            13        5
*Based on interviews 10/29-10/30

12. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the [CANDIDATE] campaign, either by phone, in-person, or online asking you for your support, or not?

10/30/12 - Summary Table (among likely voters)

            Yes   No   No opinion 
a. Obama    28    69        2
b. Romney   26    71        3

Trend:

a. Obama
              Yes   No   No opinion 
10/30/12 LV   28    69        2
10/29/12 LV   28    70        2
10/28/12 LV   26    72        2
10/27/12 LV   23    75        2
10/26/12 LV   23    75        2
10/25/12 LV   22    76        2
10/13/12 LV   27    71        2
9/29/12  RV   23    76        1
8/25/12  RV   20    79        1

b. Romney
              Yes   No   No opinion
10/30/12 LV   26    71        3
10/29/12 LV   25    72        3
10/28/12 LV   24    74        2
10/27/12 LV   23    75        2
10/26/12 LV   23    75        2
10/25/12 LV   23    75        2
10/13/12 LV   22    75        3
9/29/12  RV   20    79        1
8/25/12  RV   13    86        *

13a. (IF CONTACTED BY OBAMA CAMPAIGN) When was the last time you were contacted, within the last week, within the last month or longer ago than that?

              Within last   Within last   Longer     No
                 week          month       ago     opinion
10/30/12 LV       65            25          9         2
10/29/12 LV       64            24         10         2
10/28/12 LV       63            25          9         3
10/27/12 LV       62            28          8         2
10/26/12 LV       62            27          9         2
10/25/12 LV       61            29          6         4
10/13/12 LV       54            37          9         *
9/29/12  RV       53            34         10         3

12/13a NET:
              ---------------------- Yes -----------------------      Not      No
              NET   Last week   Last month   Longer   Don't know   contacted   op.
10/30/12 LV   28       18            7          2          1           69       2
10/29/12 LV   28       18            7          3          1           70       2
10/28/12 LV   26       16            7          2          1           72       2
10/27/12 LV   23       14            6          2          1           75       2
10/26/12 LV   23       14            6          2          1           75       2
10/25/12 LV   22       13            6          1          1           76       2
10/13/12 LV   27       15           10          2          *           71       2
9/29/12  RV   23       12            8          2         NA           76       1

13b. (IF CONTACTED BY ROMNEY CAMPAIGN) When was the last time you were contacted, within the last week, within the last month or longer ago than that?

              Within last   Within last   Longer     No
                 week          month       ago     opinion
10/30/12 LV       64            26          6         4
10/29/12 LV       63            26          7         5
10/28/12 LV       64            26          7         4
10/27/12 LV       63            25          8         4
10/26/12 LV       58            32          8         2
10/25/12 LV       57            33          8         2
10/13/12 LV       57            35          7         1
9/29/12  RV       55            34          9         1

12/13b NET:
              ---------------------- Yes -----------------------      Not      No
              NET   Last week   Last month   Longer   Don't know   contacted   op.
10/30/12 LV   26       17            7          2          1           71       3
10/29/12 LV   25       16            6          2          1           72       3
10/28/12 LV   24       15            6          2          1           74       2
10/27/12 LV   23       14            6          2          1           75       2
10/26/12 LV   23       13            7          2          *           75       2
10/25/12 LV   23       13            8          2          *           75       2
10/13/12 LV   22       13            8          2          *           75       3
9/29/12  RV   20       11            7          2         NA           79       1

901. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or what?

             Democrat   Republican   Independent   Other (vol.)   No opinion
10/30/12 LV     33          28           36              3             1
10/29/12 LV     33          28           35              3             1
10/28/12 LV     35          28           34              3             1
10/27/12 LV     35          28           34              2             1
10/26/12 LV     35          29           33              2             1
10/25/12 LV     34          30           32              2             2
10/24/12 LV     34          30           31              3             2
10/23/12 LV     34          30           32              3             1
10/22/12 LV     34          29           32              3             1
10/21/12 LV     34          29           33              3             1  
10/13/12 LV     35          26           33              3             2
9/29/12  LV     33          30           33              3             1

10/13/12 RV     34          25           36              3             2
9/29/12  RV     33          28           34              4             1
9/9/12   RV     32          26           37              4             1
8/25/12  RV     32          25           36              6             2
7/8/12   RV     36          27           33              3             1
5/20/12  RV     34          25           34              6             1
4/8/12   RV     37          24           33              4             1
3/10/12  RV     31          29           36              3             2
2/12/12  RV     36          25           34              5             1
1/15/12  RV     32          27           35              5             1

***END***

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