Washington Post-ABC News Poll

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 31-Nov. 3, 2012, among a random national sample of 2,846 adults, including landline and cell phone-only respondents. Results among the sample of 2,069 likely voters have a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York.

Analysis

Interactive data

RV = registered voters; LV=likely voters

*= less than 0.5 percent

1. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) How closely are you following the 2012 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not so closely, or not closely at all?

              ---- Closely -----   ---- Not closely -----     No
              NET   Very   Smwt    NET   Not so    At all   opinion
11/3/12  LV   98     67     31      1       1         *        *
11/2/12  LV   99     67     31      1       1         *        *
11/1/12  LV   99     68     31      1       1         *        0
10/31/12 LV   99     67     32      1       1         *        0
10/30/12 LV   99     66     33      1       1         *        0
10/29/12 LV   99     69     30      1       1         *        0
10/28/12 LV   99     69     30      1       1         *        *
10/27/12 LV   99     68     31      1       1         *        *
10/26/12 LV   99     66     33      1       1         *        0
10/25/12 LV   95     62     33      5       3         2        *
10/24/12 LV   94     63     32      5       3         2        *
10/23/12 LV   93     63     31      6       4         2        *
10/22/12 LV   92     64     28      8       5         3        *
10/21/12 LV   92     64     28      8       5         3        *
10/13/12 LV   93     60     33      6       4         2        *
9/29/12  LV   92     54     38      8       6         2        0
9/9/12   LV   87     51     36     13       8         5        1    
5/20/12  RV   82     38     44     18       9         8        *
2/4/12*  RV   79     37     43     20      12         8        *
1/15/12  RV   76     33     43     24      14        10        *
*2/4/12 and previous not “too” closely 
See http://wapo.st/VmRUMK for full trend

2. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

                                                      Don't think  Already 
              Certain  Probably  Chances  Less than   will vote    voted   No
              to vote    vote     50/50     that       (vol.)     (vol.)   op.
11/3/12  RV     68         6        4        2           1          19      *
11/2/12  RV     70         5        4        2           1          18      *   
11/1/12  RV     72         6        4        2           1          16      *
10/31/12 RV     73         6        3        2           1          16      0
10/30/12 RV     75         6        3        2           1          13      *
10/29/12 RV     76         5        4        2           *          12      *
10/28/12 RV     77         5        4        2           1          11      *
10/27/12 RV     79         5        5        2           *           9      *
10/26/12 RV     79         6        5        2           *           8      *
10/25/12 RV     79         6        6        2           1           6      *
10/24/12 RV     79         7        6        2           1           6      *
10/23/12 RV     80         6        6        2           1           5      *
10/22/12 RV     82         5        6        2           1           4      *
10/21/12 RV     84         6        4        2           *           4      *
10/13/12 RV     85         7        4        1           1           1      1
9/29/12  RV     84         7        7        2           *           0      *
9/9/12   RV     83         7        6        4           *          NA      0
8/25/12  RV     81         8        6        3           1                  *
7/8/12   RV     81         9        8        2           *           "      *
See http://wapo.st/VmRUMK for full trend

3. (IF CERTAIN TO VOTE) Do you think you'll (vote in person at your polling place on Election Day), or (vote before Election Day by early voting or mail-in ballot)?

                Vote      Early voting/      Already
              in person   mail-in ballot   voted (vol.)   No opinion
11/3/12  LV      58             14             27              1
11/2/12  LV      58             16             25              *
11/1/12  LV      60             18             22              *
10/31/12 LV      60             19             21              *
10/30/12 LV      60             22             18              1
10/29/12 LV      61             21             17              1
10/28/12 LV      60             22             15              2
10/27/12 LV      62             24             12              2
10/26/12 LV      62             25             11              2
10/25/12 RV      61             29              8              1
10/24/12 RV      62             29              8              1
10/23/12 RV      62             28              7              2
10/22/12 RV      64             27              6              2
10/21/12 RV      66             27              5              2
10/13/12 RV      67             30              2              1 
See http://wapo.st/VmRUMK for full trend

4. (IF CERTAIN TO VOTE) If the presidential election were being held today and the candidates were (Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats) and (Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, the Republicans), for whom would you vote? Which candidates are you leaning toward, (Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats) or (Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, the Republicans)? (ASKED IF ALREADY VOTED) For whom did you vote?

NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE - among likely voters 

                               Other    Neither     No
              Obama   Romney   (vol.)   (vol.)    opinion
11/3/12  LV    49       48        2        1         2
11/2/12  LV    48       48        1        1         2
11/1/12  LV    48       49        1        1         1
10/31/12 LV    49       48        1        1         1
10/30/12 LV    49       49        1        *         1
10/29/12 LV    48       49        1        *         1 
10/28/12 LV    49       49        1        1         1 
10/27/12 LV    48       49        1        1         1 
10/26/12 LV    48       49        1        1         1
10/25/12 LV    48       49        1        1         1
10/24/12 LV    47       50        1        1         1
10/23/12 LV    48       49        *        1         1
10/22/12 LV    48       49        *        2         1
10/21/12 LV    49       48        *        2         1
10/13/12 LV    49       46        1        1         2
9/29/12  LV    49       47        *        2         1
9/9/12   LV    49       48        *        1         2
8/25/12  LV    47       49        1        1         1
7/8/12*  LV    50       47        *        2         2
*7/18/12: "Barack Obama, the Democrat" and "Mitt Romney, the Republican"

5. (IF SUPPORT/VOTED OBAMA OR ROMNEY) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Obama/Romney), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?

              ---- Enthusiastic ---   --- Not enthusiastic ----     No
              NET   Very   Somewhat   NET   Not so   Not at all   opinion
Obama:
11/3/12  LV   95     69       26       5       2          3          1
11/2/12  LV   95     69       27       4       2          2          1
11/1/12  LV   95     66       30       4       2          1          1
10/31/12 LV   95     64       31       4       3          1          *
10/30/12 LV   96     64       32       3       2          1          *
10/29/12 LV   97     65       32       3       2          1          *
10/28/12 LV   95     66       30       4       2          1          1
10/27/12 LV   95     64       31       4       3          1          1
10/26/12 LV   94     61       33       4       3          1          1
10/25/12 LV   94     59       35       5       3          2          1
10/24/12 LV   96     60       35       4       3          1          *
10/23/12 LV   95     60       35       4       3          1          *
10/22/12 LV   96     62       34       4       3          1          *
10/21/12 LV   96     64       32       4       3          1          *
10/13/12 LV   95     60       35       4       4          1          *
10/13/12 RV   94     55       40       5       4          1          1
9/29/12  RV   91     51       40       9       7          2          0
9/9/12   RV   93     56       38       7       3          3          0
8/25/12  RV   88     48       39      11       7          4          1
7/8/12   RV   91     51       40       8       5          3          1
5/20/12  RV   93     51       41       7       4          4          0

Romney:
11/3/12  LV   94     62       32       5       3          2          *
11/2/12  LV   94     63       31       5       3          2          *
11/1/12  LV   95     62       33       5       3          2          *
10/31/12 LV   94     62       32       5       3          2          1
10/30/12 LV   95     61       35       4       3          1          *
10/29/12 LV   95     61       34       4       3          2          *
10/28/12 LV   94     61       33       5       4          1          *
10/27/12 LV   95     59       36       5       3          2          *
10/26/12 LV   93     59       35       6       5          2          *
10/25/12 LV   93     58       35       7       5          2          1
10/24/12 LV   93     60       33       7       5          2          1
10/23/12 LV   93     62       31       6       5          1          1
10/22/12 LV   93     62       32       6       4          2          1
10/21/12 LV   93     58       35       6       5          1          1
10/13/12 LV   93     62       31       7       4          2          1
10/13/12 RV   92     59       33       8       5          2          1
9/29/12  RV   87     48       39      13       6          7          *
9/9/12   RV   87     46       40      13       7          6          1
8/25/12  RV   83     42       41      17      12          4          *
7/8/12   RV   85     38       47      15      11          4          *
5/20/12  RV   75     26       48      25      15          9          1
See http://wapo.st/VmRUMK for full trend

5a. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Have you voted for president in any year before this 2012 election, or is this the first year you’ll be voting for president?

              Voted before   First time
11/3/12  LV        93             7 
11/2/12  LV        92             8  
11/1/12  LV        92             8
10/31/12 LV        93             7 
10/30/12 LV        94             6    
10/29/12 LV        96             4 
10/28/12 LV        96             4    
10/27/12 LV        93             7
10/26/12 LV        92             8       
Call for full trend.

6. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?

              -------- Approve --------   ------- Disapprove ------     No
              NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opinion
11/3/12  LV   50       34         16      49        9         39         1
11/2/12  LV   50       34         17      48       10         39         1
11/1/12  LV   50       33         17      49       10         39         1
10/31/12 LV   50       32         18      49       10         39         1
10/30/12 LV   50       30         20      49       10         39         1
10/29/12 LV   50       30         20      49       10         39         1
10/28/12 LV   51       31         20      47        9         39         1
10/27/12 LV   50       30         20      48        8         40         2
10/26/12 LV   50       30         19      48        8         41         2
10/25/12 LV   49       30         19      49        8         41         2
10/24/12 LV   49       30         18      50        9         41         1
10/24/12 RV   50       29         21      48       10         38         3
10/23/12 LV   50       30         19      49        9         40         2
10/23/12 RV   50       29         21      47        9         37         3
10/22/12 LV   49       31         18      49        9         40         2
10/22/12 RV   50       30         20      47       10         38         3
10/21/12 LV   50       31         19      48        8         40         2
10/21/12 RV   51       31         20      47       10         37         2
10/13/12 LV   50       32         18      48        9         40         2
10/13/12 RV   51       30         21      47       10         37         2
10/13/12      50       30         21      44       10         34         6
9/29/12  RV   49       25         24      49       12         37         2
9/29/12       50       26         24      46       12         34         4
9/9/12   RV   48       27         21      50       10         39         2
9/9/12        49       29         20      45       11         35         6
8/25/12  RV   47       26         21      50       13         37         3
8/25/12       50       27         23      46       13         33         4
7/8/12        47       24         24      49       15         34         4
5/20/12       47       26         21      49       13         36         3
4/8/12        50       30         20      45       10         35         6
3/10/12       46       28         18      50       11         39         4
2/4/12        50       29         22      46       11         36         3
1/15/12       48       25         23      48       11         37         4
12/18/11      49       25         24      47       13         34         4
11/3/11       44       22         22      53       15         37         3
10/2/11       42       21         21      54       14         40         4
9/1/11        43       21         22      53       16         38         3
8/9/11*       44       18         26      46        9         37        10
7/17/11       47       25         22      48       14         35         5
6/5/11        47       27         20      49       13         37         4
5/2/11**      56       29         27      38       14         24         6
4/17/11       47       27         21      50       12         37         3
3/13/11       51       27         24      45       12         33         4
1/16/11       54       30         23      43       15         28         3
12/12/10      49       24         25      47       15         32         4
10/28/10      50       27         23      45       11         34         5
10/3/10       50       26         24      47       13         34         3
9/2/10        46       24         22      52       14         38         3
7/11/10       50       28         22      47       12         35         3
6/6/10        52       30         22      45       12         33         4
4/25/10       54       31         23      44       11         33         3
3/26/10       53       34         20      43        8         35         3
2/8/10        51       29         22      46       12         33         3
1/15/10       53       30         24      44       13         32         2
12/13/09      50       31         18      46       13         33         4
11/15/09      56       32         23      42       13         29         2
10/18/09      57       33         23      40       11         29         3
9/12/09       54       35         19      43       12         31         3
8/17/09       57       35         21      40       11         29         3
7/18/09       59       38         22      37        9         28         4
6/21/09       65       36         29      31       10         22         4
4/24/09       69       42         27      26        8         18         4
3/29/09       66       40         26      29        9         20         5
2/22/09       68       43         25      25        8         17         7
*Washington Post
**Washington Post/Pew Research Center

7. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you trust to do a better job [ITEM] - (Obama) or (Romney)?

11/3/12 - Summary Table (among likely voters)

                                                            Both    Neither     No
                                          Obama   Romney   (vol.)   (vol.)    opinion
a. Handling the economy                    46       49        *        3         2
j. Handling an unexpected major crisis*    52       42        1        2         3
*Interviews 11/1-11/3

Trend:

a. Handling the economy
                                Both    Neither     No
              Obama   Romney   (vol.)   (vol.)    opinion
11/3/12  LV    46       49        *        3         2
11/2/12  LV    46       49        *        2         2
11/1/12  LV    46       50        *        2         2
10/31/12 LV    47       49        *        3         2
10/30/12 LV    47       49        1        2         2
10/29/12 LV    46       49        1        2         2
10/28/12 LV    47       49        1        2         2
10/27/12 LV    45       50        1        3         2
10/26/12 LV    44       51        1        3         2
10/25/12 LV    44       51        1        3         1
10/24/12 LV    43       52        1        3         2
10/23/12 LV    44       50        1        3         2
10/22/12 LV    45       50        1        2         2        
10/21/12 LV    46       48        1        3         2
10/13/12 LV    48       47        *        2         3
9/29/12  RV    47       47        *        4         2
9/9/12   RV    47       45        *        3         4
8/25/12  RV    43       50        *        4         3
7/8/12   RV    45       48        1        3         3
5/20/12  RV    47       47        *        3         3
4/8/12   RV    44       48        1        4         3
2/4/12   RV    44       50        1        3         2

j. Handling an unexpected major crisis

                                Both    Neither     No
              Obama   Romney   (vol.)   (vol.)    opinion
11/3/12  LV    52       42        1        2         3
10/13/12 LV    52       43        2        2         1
10/13/12 RV    52       40        2        3         3
9/29/12  RV    52       42        1        2         3

Compare to:
                                Both    Neither     No 
              Obama   McCain   (vol.)   (vol.)    opinion
11/3/08  LV    49       45        2        2         2
11/2/08  LV    49       46        2        2         2
11/1/08  LV    51       45        1        1         1
10/31/08 LV    50       46        2        1         2
10/30/08 LV    49       46        1        1         2
10/29/08 LV    48       47        2        1         2
10/28/08 LV    47       48        1        2         3
10/27/08 LV    46       48        2        2         3
10/19/08 LV    49       45        1        2         2
10/11/08 LV    52       43        1        3         1
9/29/08  RV    44       50        1        2         3
9/22/08  RV    46       47        2        2         3
9/7/08   RV    37       54        2        3         3
8/22/08  RV    41       52        2        2         3
7/13/08  RV    42       51        3        2         3

8. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) ) Regardless of who you may support, who do you think [ITEM] - (Obama) or (Romney)?

11/3/12 - Summary Table (among likely voters)

                                                        Both    Neither     No
                                      Obama   Romney   (vol.)   (vol.)    opinion 
a. Better understands the   
   economic problems people                
   in this country are having          50       44        2        3         2
f. Is the stronger leader*             50       44        1        2         3
g. Has better ideas about the right
   size and role of the federal
   government*                         45       48        1        3         3 
*Interviews 11/1-11/3

Trend:

a. Better understands the economic problems people in this country are having

                                Both    Neither     No
              Obama   Romney   (vol.)   (vol.)    opinion
11/3/12  LV    50       44        2        3         2
11/2/12  LV    50       44        1        3         1
11/1/12  LV    50       45        1        3         1
10/31/12 LV    50       45        1        3         1
10/30/12 LV    50       44        1        3         1
10/29/12 LV    49       45        2        3         1
10/28/12 LV    50       44        2        3         1
10/27/12 LV    49       44        2        4         1
10/26/12 LV    48       45        2        4         1
10/25/12 LV    49       47        1        3         1
10/24/12 LV    48       46        2        3         1
10/23/12 LV    50       45        2        2         1
10/22/12 LV    51       44        2        2         1
10/21/12 LV    51       44        2        3         1
10/13/12 LV    51       42        2        4         1
9/29/12  RV    52       39        2        6         1
9/9/12   RV    50       40        3        4         3
8/25/12  RV    47       40        1        9         2 
7/8/12   RV    51       40        2        5         2
5/20/12  RV    48       40        2        8         2
4/8/12   RV    49       38        2        8         2
2/4/12   RV    52       37        2        7         2

f. Is the stronger leader

                                Both    Neither     No
              Obama   Romney   (vol.)   (vol.)    opinion
11/3/12  LV    50       44        1        2         3
10/13/12 LV    49       47        1        1         2
10/13/12 RV    49       45        1        2         3
9/9/12   RV    50       42        2        2         5
7/8/12   RV    46       44        3        2         6
4/8/12   RV    48       42        1        5         5

g. Has better ideas about the right size and role of the federal government

                                Both    Neither     No
              Obama   Romney   (vol.)   (vol.)    opinion
11/3/12  LV    45       48        1        3         3
10/13/12 LV    44       48        1        4         4
10/13/12 RV    44       46        1        5         5

Compare to: Regardless of your other political views, overall which party do you
think has better ideas about the right size and role of the federal government
- the (Democratic Party) or the (Republican Party)?

                                        Both    Neither                         
             Democratic   Republican   (vol.)   (vol.)    No opinion  
10/3/10 RV       41           45          3        8           4
6/6/10  RV       44           41          1       11           3

9. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) For each item I name, please tell me if it will be a major factor in your vote, a minor factor, or not a factor.

11/3/12 - Summary Table (among likely voters)*

                                         ----- A factor ----   Not a      No
                                         NET   Major   Minor   factor   opinion
a. Romney’s performance in the debates   62     26      35       38        1
b. Obama’s handling of the hurricane 
   response                              51     23      28       48        1
*Based on interviews 11/1-11/3.

12. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the [CANDIDATE] campaign, either by phone, in-person, or online asking you for your support, or not?

11/3/12 - Summary Table (among likely voters)

            Yes   No   No opinion 
a. Obama    30    68        2
b. Romney   28    70        2

Trend:

a. Obama
              Yes   No   No opinion 
11/3/12  LV   30    68        2
11/2/12  LV   29    69        2
11/1/12  LV   29    69        2
10/31/12 LV   30    68        2
10/30/12 LV   28    69        2
10/29/12 LV   28    70        2
10/28/12 LV   26    72        2
10/27/12 LV   23    75        2
10/26/12 LV   23    75        2
10/25/12 LV   22    76        2
10/13/12 LV   27    71        2
9/29/12  RV   23    76        1
8/25/12  RV   20    79        1

b. Romney
              Yes   No   No opinion
11/3/12  LV   28    70        2
11/2/12  LV   27    71        2
11/1/12  LV   27    71        2
10/31/12 LV   27    71        2
10/30/12 LV   26    71        3
10/29/12 LV   25    72        3
10/28/12 LV   24    74        2
10/27/12 LV   23    75        2
10/26/12 LV   23    75        2
10/25/12 LV   23    75        2
10/13/12 LV   22    75        3
9/29/12  RV   20    79        1
8/25/12  RV   13    86        *

13a. (IF CONTACTED BY OBAMA CAMPAIGN) When was the last time you were contacted, within the last week, within the last month or longer ago than that?

              Within last   Within last   Longer     No
                 week          month       ago     opinion
11/3/12  LV       65            26          7         2     
11/2/12  LV       64            28          7         1
11/1/12  LV       64            27          7         1
10/31/12 LV       66            25          7         2
10/30/12 LV       65            25          9         2
10/29/12 LV       64            24         10         2
10/28/12 LV       63            25          9         3
10/27/12 LV       62            28          8         2
10/26/12 LV       62            27          9         2
10/25/12 LV       61            29          6         4
10/13/12 LV       54            37          9         *
9/29/12  RV       53            34         10         3

12/13a NET:
              ---------------------- Yes -----------------------      Not      No
              NET   Last week   Last month   Longer   Don't know   contacted   op.
11/3/12  LV   30       19            8          2          1           68       2 
11/2/12  LV   29       18            8          2          *           69       2
11/1/12  LV   29       19            8          2          *           69       2
10/31/12 LV   30       19            7          2          1           68       2
10/30/12 LV   28       18            7          2          1           69       2
10/29/12 LV   28       18            7          3          1           70       2
10/28/12 LV   26       16            7          2          1           72       2
10/27/12 LV   23       14            6          2          1           75       2
10/26/12 LV   23       14            6          2          1           75       2
10/25/12 LV   22       13            6          1          1           76       2
10/13/12 LV   27       15           10          2          *           71       2
9/29/12  RV   23       12            8          2         NA           76       1

13b. (IF CONTACTED BY ROMNEY CAMPAIGN) When was the last time you were contacted, within the last week, within the last month or longer ago than that?

              Within last   Within last   Longer     No
                 week          month       ago     opinion
11/3/12  LV       64            24          8         3     
11/2/12  LV       65            26          8         2
11/1/12  LV       64            27          5         3
10/31/12 LV       60            30          7         3
10/30/12 LV       64            26          6         4
10/29/12 LV       63            26          7         5
10/28/12 LV       64            26          7         4
10/27/12 LV       63            25          8         4
10/26/12 LV       58            32          8         2
10/25/12 LV       57            33          8         2
10/13/12 LV       57            35          7         1
9/29/12  RV       55            34          9         1

12/13b NET:
              ---------------------- Yes -----------------------      Not      No
              NET   Last week   Last month   Longer   Don't know   contacted   op.
11/3/12  LV   28       18            7          2          1           70       2 
11/2/12  LV   27       17            7          2          1           71       2
11/1/12  LV   27       17            7          1          1           71       2
10/31/12 LV   27       16            8          2          1           71       2
10/30/12 LV   26       17            7          2          1           71       3
10/29/12 LV   25       16            6          2          1           72       3
10/28/12 LV   24       15            6          2          1           74       2
10/27/12 LV   23       14            6          2          1           75       2
10/26/12 LV   23       13            7          2          *           75       2
10/25/12 LV   23       13            8          2          *           75       2
10/13/12 LV   22       13            8          2          *           75       3
9/29/12  RV   20       11            7          2         NA           79       1

901. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or what?

             Democrat   Republican   Independent   Other (vol.)   No opinion
11/3/12  LV     33          29           34              3             1
11/2/12  LV     33          29           34              3             1
11/1/12  LV     32          29           35              3             1
10/31/12 LV     32          28           36              3             1
10/30/12 LV     33          28           36              3             1
10/29/12 LV     33          28           35              3             1
10/28/12 LV     35          28           34              3             1
10/27/12 LV     35          28           34              2             1
10/26/12 LV     35          29           33              2             1
10/25/12 LV     34          30           32              2             2
10/24/12 LV     34          30           31              3             2
10/23/12 LV     34          30           32              3             1
10/22/12 LV     34          29           32              3             1
10/21/12 LV     34          29           33              3             1  
10/13/12 LV     35          26           33              3             2
9/29/12  LV     33          30           33              3             1

10/13/12 RV     34          25           36              3             2
9/29/12  RV     33          28           34              4             1
9/9/12   RV     32          26           37              4             1
8/25/12  RV     32          25           36              6             2
7/8/12   RV     36          27           33              3             1
5/20/12  RV     34          25           34              6             1
4/8/12   RV     37          24           33              4             1
3/10/12  RV     31          29           36              3             2
2/12/12  RV     36          25           34              5             1
1/15/12  RV     32          27           35              5             1

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