2010 Maryland Governor's Race Poll
This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone May 3-6, 2010, among a random sample of 1,030 adult residents of Maryland, including 851 registered voters. Interviews were conducted on both conventional and cellular phones, and in English and Spanish. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points; it is four points for the registered voter sample. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt SRBI, Inc of New York, NY.
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Key | ||
| * | -- | less than 0.5 percent |
| RV | -- | Registered voters |
| LV | -- | Likely voters (who say they are "absolutely certain" to vote) |
| All | -- | All responses |
1. Are you registered to vote at your present address, or not?
Yes No No opinion 5/6/10 80 20 *
Are you registered as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or something else?
Democrat Republican Independent Something else No opinion 5/6/10 RV 56 27 13 3 1 10/20/08 RV 57 29 14 * * 10/22/07 RV 56 25 14 4 1 10/26/06 RV 56 30 11 3 1 6/25/06 RV 51 29 14 4 1
2. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the upcoming election for governor and U.S. Senator this November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? A significant number of resondents said they didn't think they would vote, although that wasn't offered as an option.)
5/6/10 RV 10/26/06 RV
Certain to vote 67 72
Probably will vote 19 13
Chances 50/50 11 7
Less than 50/50 2 4
Don't think I'll vote 1 1
No opinioln * 1 3. Would you say you are following this year's governor's race in the state of Maryland very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?>
-------Closely------- --------Not closely------- No opinion
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all
5/6/10 RV 61 26 35 38 23 15 1
10/26/06 LV 91 49 42 9 8 2 *
10/24/02 LV 89 45 44 10 8 2 * 4. If the candidates for Maryland governor in 2010 are: (Martin O'Malley, the Democrat) and (Bob Ehrlich, the Republican); if the election were held today, for whom would you vote? (IF NOT O'MALLEY OR EHRLICH) Which one would you lean toward right now? (While not offered as choices, some respondents said they wouldn't vote for either or gave the name of another candidate)
Net Leaned Vote: O'Malley Ehrlich Other Neither Would not vote No opinion
5/6/10 RV 49 41 * 3 1 6
5/6/10 LV 47 47 * 2 N/A 4
10/20/08 RV 57 36 * 1 1 5
'06 Election Result 53 46 1 N/A N/A N/A
10/26/06 LV 55 45 0 1 N/A *
6/25/06 LV 55 39 * 1 N/A 4
6/25/06 RV 51 40 * 3 N/A 5
5. (IF RESPONDENT NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
5/6/10 Summary Table - Registered voters, leaned O'Malley/Ehrlich Supporters
Chance voter might change mind
Definitely will vote for them NET Good chance Unlikely No opinion
a. O'Malley 55 41 17 24 4
b. Ehrlich 59 36 18 18 5 Martin O'Malley polling trend:
Chance voter might change mind
Definitely will vote for him NET Good chance Unlikely No opinion
5/6/10 RV 55 41 17 24 4
5/6/10 LV 63 33 15 18 5
10/26/06 LV 85 15 5 10 * Martin O'Malley polling trend:
Chance voter might change mind
Definitely will vote for him NET Good chance Unlikely No opinion
5/6/10 RV 59 36 18 18 5
5/6/10 LV 67 29 13 16 4
10/26/06 LV 85 15 5 10 * 6. Are you satisfied with the choice of (O'Malley) or (Ehrlich), or do you wish you had more choices?
5/6/10 RV Satisfied with choices 49 Wish I had more choices 45 No opinion 6
7. Please tell me how important each of the following issues are in deciding how you'll vote for governor this year. Is the issue of (READ ITEM) extremely important in determining your vote; very important; fairly important, or not too important?
(Registered voters' responses) ----- Important ------ --- Not important ----
NET Extremely Very NET Fairly Not too No opinion
Taxes 76 36 40 24 17 7 1
Public education 78 39 39 21 14 7 *
The state's economy 85 41 45 14 12 2 1
Crime 77 35 42 22 16 6 1
The environment 65 29 37 34 23 11 *
The state budget deficit 76 37 39 22 18 4 2 Polling trends:
Taxes
----- Important ------ --- Not important ----
NET Extremely Very NET Fairly Not too No opinion
5/6/10 RV 76 36 40 24 17 7 1
5/6/10 LV 78 38 39 22 16 7 *
10/24/02 LV 68 23 45 32 25 7 * Public education
----- Important ------ --- Not important ----
NET Extremely Very NET Fairly Not too No opinion
5/6/10 RV 78 39 39 21 14 7 *
5/6/10 LV 77 40 37 23 14 8 *
10/24/02 LV 81 33 48 18 14 5 1 The state's economy
----- Important ------ --- Not important ----
NET Extremely Very NET Fairly Not too No opinion
5/6/10 RV 85 41 45 14 12 2 1
5/6/10 LV 86 43 43 14 12 2 1
10/24/02 LV 80 24 55 19 17 2 1 Crime
----- Important ------ --- Not important ----
NET Extremely Very NET Fairly Not too No opinion
5/6/10 RV 77 35 42 22 16 6 1
5/6/10 LV 75 33 43 24 17 7 1
10/24/02 LV 82 34 47 18 15 3 * The environment
----- Important ------ --- Not important ----
NET Extremely Very NET Fairly Not too No opinion
5/6/10 RV 65 29 37 34 23 11 *
5/6/10 LV 64 26 37 36 25 11 *
10/24/02 LV 62 20 42 37 30 6 1 The state budget deficit
----- Important ------ --- Not important ----
NET Extremely Very NET Fairly Not too No opinion
5/6/10 RV 76 37 39 22 18 4 2
5/6/10 LV 79 41 38 20 16 4 1
10/24/02 LV 70 24 47 29 24 4 1 8. Please tell me whether each of the following statements applies more to (O'Malley) or more to (Ehrlich). (Though not provided as options, some respondents said "both" or "neither.")
(Registered voters' responses) O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion
He is honest and trustworthy 33 29 12 12 15
He understands the problems of people like you 41 31 5 10 13
He is a strong leader 35 37 10 6 12
He has a vision for the state's future 38 31 11 6 15 Polling trends:
He is honest and trustworthy
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion 5/6/10 RV 33 29 12 12 15 5/6/10 LV 31 36 12 11 10 10/26/06 LV 42 41 5 8 4
He understands the problems of people like you
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion 5/6/10 RV 41 31 5 10 13 5/6/10 LV 39 39 4 10 9 10/26/06 LV 52 38 2 5 3
He is a strong leader
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion 5/6/10 RV 35 37 10 6 12 5/6/10 LV 34 43 10 6 8 10/26/06 LV 44 45 6 3 3
He has a vision for the state's future
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion 5/6/10 RV 38 31 11 6 15 5/6/10 LV 36 38 11 5 10 10/26/06 LV 46 42 6 3 3
9. And which candidate, (O'Malley) or (Ehrlich), do you trust to do a better job on each of these issues?
(Registered voters' responses) O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion
Working effectively with the state legislature 49 27 5 5 15
Crime 40 34 5 6 16
Taxes 36 44 3 5 12
Public education 49 29 6 3 13
The state economy 39 43 2 4 11
The state budget deficit 37 42 4 5 12
The environment 49 25 5 5 17 Polling trends where available:
Working effectively with the state legislature
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion 5/6/10 RV 49 27 5 5 15 5/6/10 LV 50 30 5 4 10 10/26/06 LV 61 33 2 2 3
Crime
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion 5/6/10 RV 40 34 5 6 16 5/6/10 LV 39 41 5 5 11 10/26/06 LV 46 45 2 4 4
Taxes
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion 5/6/10 RV 36 44 3 5 12 5/6/10 LV 34 50 3 5 7 10/26/06 LV 47 45 1 3 4
Public education
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion 5/6/10 RV 49 29 6 3 13 5/6/10 LV 47 36 5 3 9 10/26/06 LV 50 43 2 3 2
The state economy
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion 5/6/10 RV 39 43 2 4 11 5/6/10 LV 38 51 2 4 5 10/26/06 LV 46 48 1 2 3
10. Do you think [NAME]'s views on most issues are (too liberal) for you, (too conservative), or just about right?
(Registered voters' responses)
Too liberal Too conservative About right No opinion
a. O'Malley 34 8 45 13
b. Ehrlich 6 31 46 17 Ehrlich polling trend (no O'Malley trend available):
Too liberal Too conservative About right No opinion 5/6/10 RV 6 31 46 17 1/7/04 RV 8 29 59 4 10/24/02 LV 10 33 49 7
11. Do you think things in the state of Maryland are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
Right direction Wrong track No opinion
5/6/10 RV 41 52 7
5/6/10 39 49 12
10/20/08 RV 31 63 6
10/22/07 RV 45 48 7
10/26/06 LV 57 39 5
6/25/06 RV 44 50 6
1/7/04 RV 56 36 8
10/24/02 LV 42 51 7
10/22/98 RV 54 36 10
6/17/98 LV 56 32 11
6/17/98 All 53 34 13
12/19/93 All 33 56 11 12. Generally speaking, how would you rate the overall economy of Maryland: excellent, good, not-so-good or poor?
----Excellent/Good---- -----Not-so-good/Poor-----
NET Excellent Good NET Not-so-good Poor No opinion
5/6/10 RV 44 2 41 55 40 15 1
5/6/10 41 3 38 57 42 15 2
10/22/07 RV 62 6 56 36 27 10 1
10/22/07 64 6 58 35 24 10 1
1/7/04 RV 61 3 58 38 31 7 1
1/7/04 63 4 59 36 28 8 1
10/24/02 LV 57 3 54 42 33 9 1
10/22/98 LV 76 8 67 23 18 4 2
6/17/98 LV 78 10 68 20 16 4 2
6/17/98 75 8 67 23 17 6 3 13. Regardless of how you may vote) Do you approve or disapprove of the way Martin O'Malley is handling his job as governor? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
5/6/10 RV 58 19 39 34 17 17 8
5/6/10 54 17 37 34 17 17 12
10/20/08 RV 53 14 39 37 16 21 10
10/22/07 RV 51 13 38 39 17 22 11
10/22/07 53 12 40 36 18 19 11 Compare to Bob Ehrlich:
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
10/26/06 LV 55 30 25 42 19 23 3
6/25/06 RV 56 21 36 41 21 20 3
1/7/04 RV 64 23 41 29 17 12 8
1/7/04 All 62 21 42 28 17 11 10 Compare to Parris Glendening:
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
10/24/02 LV 37 9 29 58 22 37 4
10/22/98 LV 54 16 38 40 21 19 6
6/17/98 LV 55 14 41 36 19 18 9 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way O'Malley is handling the issue of the state budget and taxes?
Approve Disapprove No opinion 5/6/10 RV 46 40 14 10/22/07 RV 39 52 10
15. How much would you say O'Malley has accomplished as governor: a lot, a fair amount, some, or not much? (2007 poll asked about accomplishments "in his first year.")
--- A lot/Fair amount --- --- Some/Not much ---
NET A lot Fair amount NET Some Not much No opinion
5/6/10 RV 46 8 38 48 29 20 5
10/22/07 RV 28 3 25 67 32 35 4 Compare to:
How much would you say Ehrlich has accomplished in his first term as governor: a lot, a fair amount, some, or not much? (2004 poll asked about accomplishments "in his first year.")
--- A lot/Fair amount --- --- Some/Not much ---
NET A lot Fair amount NET Some Not much No opinion
10/26/06 LV 51 14 37 47 28 19 1
6/25/06 RV 48 8 40 51 30 21 2
1/7/04 RV 49 6 43 47 29 18 4 16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Maryland state legislature is doing its job? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
---------Approve--------- --------Disapprove-------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
5/6/10 RV 48 7 41 39 21 17 14
10/22/07 RV 46 6 40 46 21 24 9 17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way [NAME] is handling (his/her) job as U.S. Senator? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
Among registered voters ---------Approve--------- --------Disapprove-------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
Ben Cardin 48 21 27 21 10 12 31
Barbara Mikulski 58 37 22 26 8 18 16 Ben Cardin polling trend:
---------Approve--------- --------Disapprove-------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
5/6/10 RV 48 21 27 21 10 12 31
10/22/07 RV 51 NA NA 25 NA NA 24 18. I am going to read you a list of names. For each, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person, or perhaps you don't know enough to say.
Among registered voters Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Michael Steele 33 37 30 Anthony Brown 20 7 73 Douglas Gansler 18 7 74 Peter Franchot 20 8 72
Michael Steele
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 5/6/10 RV 33 37 30 10/26/06 LV 56 35 9 6/25/06 RV 51 26 23 1/7/04 RV 42 9 49
Anthony Brown
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 5/6/10 RV 20 7 73 10/20/08 RV 22 6 72 10/26/06 LV 25 9 66
Douglas Gansler
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 5/6/10 RV 18 7 74 10/20/08 RV 16 8 76
Peter Franchot
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 5/6/10 RV 20 8 72 10/20/08 RV 18 11 71
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
---------Approve--------- --------Disapprove-------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
5/6/10 62 40 21 34 10 24 5
5/6/10 RV 62 42 19 36 9 26 3 Compare to national:
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
4/25/10 54 31 23 44 11 33 3
3/26/10 53 34 20 43 8 35 3
2/8/10 51 29 22 46 12 33 3
1/15/10 53 30 24 44 13 32 2
12/13/09 50 31 18 46 13 33 4
11/15/09 56 32 23 42 13 29 2
10/18/09 57 33 23 40 11 29 3
9/12/09 54 35 19 43 12 31 3
8/17/09 57 35 21 40 11 29 3
7/18/09 59 38 22 37 9 28 4
6/21/09 65 36 29 31 10 22 4
4/24/09 69 42 27 26 8 18 4
3/29/09 66 40 26 29 9 20 5
2/22/09 68 43 25 25 8 17 7 20. On another subject: overall, given what you know about them, would you say you support or oppose the changes to the health care system that have been enacted by (Congress) and (the Obama administration)? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
-------- Support -------- --------- Oppose --------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
5/6/10 54 37 18 37 9 28 8 Compare to national:
-------- Support -------- --------- Oppose --------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
3/26/10 46 32 13 50 10 40 4 21. How do you feel about [ITEM] - very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried or not worried at all?
----- Worried ----- ------------- Not worried --------------
NET Very Somewhat NET Not too worried Not worried at all No opinion
a. The direction of the
nation's economy over
the next few years 77 34 43 21 16 6 1
b. Your own family's
financial situation 58 21 37 41 26 16 1 Trends:
a. The direction of the nation's economy over the next few years
----- Worried ----- ------------- Not worried --------------
NET Very Somewhat NET Not too worried Not worried at all No opinion
5/6/10 77 34 43 21 16 6 1
10/20/08 90 56 34 9 6 3 1 b. Your own family's financial situation
----- Worried ----- ------------- Not worried --------------
NET Very Somewhat NET Not too worried Not worried at all No opinion
5/6/10 58 21 37 41 26 16 1
10/20/08 65 24 41 34 23 12 * 22. So far, do you think the federal economic stimulus program has (helped) the economy in Maryland, (hurt) the state's economy, or hasn't made much difference? Is that A GREAT DEAL or SOMEWHAT?
-------- Helped --------- --------- Hurt ----------
NET Great deal Somewhat NET Somewhat Great deal No difference No opinion
5/6/10 29 6 23 11 5 7 53 6 (IF HURT/NO DIFFERENCE/DON'T KNOW) Do you think the economic stimulus program will help the state's economy, or not?
Yes No No opinion 5/6/10 39 49 12
Combined results:
--- Helped/Will help -- ------- Hurt/Won't help ------
NET Has helped Will NET Has hurt No difference No opinion
5/6/10 56 29 27 35 8 27 8 23. I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which one best describes how you feel about the way the federal government works. Do you feel enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry?
-------- Positive ---------- ------- Negative -------
NET Enthusiastic Satisfied NET Dissatisfied Angry No opinion
5/6/10 RV 45 5 40 53 38 15 2 Compare to national:
-------- Positive ---------- ------- Negative -------
NET Enthusiastic Satisfied NET Dissatisfied Angry No opinion
4/25/10 RV 30 5 26 69 52 18 * 24. Changing topics, would you favor or oppose a state law that would allow gay and lesbian couples to get married?
Favor Oppose No opinion 5/6/10 RV 48 43 9 5/6/10 46 44 10 10/22/07 RV 45 50 5 10/22/07 44 51 5 6/25/06 RV 42 56 3 1/7/04 RV 35 58 7 1/7/04 35 58 7
25. If a gay or lesbian couple gets legally married in another state, do you think that marriage should or should not be recognized as legal in Maryland?
Should be recognized Should not be No opinion 5/6/10 RV 56 37 7 5/6/10 55 38 7
Compare to national:
If a gay or lesbian couple gets legally married in another state, do you think that marriage should or should not be recognized as legal in your state?
Should be recognized Should not be No opinion 4/24/09 53 43 4
26. On another subject, do you favor or oppose the death penalty for people convicted of murder?
Favor Oppose No opinion 5/6/10 60 32 8 10/22/07 60 35 5
27. Which punishment do you prefer for people convicted of murder: (the death penalty) or (life in prison with no chance of parole)?
Death Penalty Life No opinion 5/6/10 40 49 11 10/22/07 43 52 5
28. As you may know, the state projects a large budget deficit next year. Overall, do you think the budget situation is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, not much of a problem or not a problem for the people of Maryland today? (2007 poll question used phrasing "the state projects a one point seven billion dollar budget deficit.")
----- Problem ----- ---- Not a problem ----
NET Big Somewhat NET Not much At all No opinion
5/6/10 RV 95 66 29 5 3 2 1
10/20/08 RV 97 76 21 2 1 1 1
10/22/07* RV 94 61 33 5 3 2 1 29. How fair do you think the Maryland state tax system is? Overall, would you say that the tax system is very fair, moderately fair, not too fair, or not fair at all?
--------- Fair -------- -------- Not fair --------
NET Very Moderately NET Not too Not at all No opinion
5/6/10 RV 61 8 53 37 23 13 3
10/22/07 RV 55 5 50 44 28 16 1 30. Thinking about the changes to the Maryland tax system over the past few years, would you say the taxes you and your immediate family pay have (gone up), (gone down) or are they about the same as they were a few years ago?
Gone up Gone down About the same No opinion 5/6/10 RV 62 5 30 3
Compare to:
From what you know, if this plan passes, do you think you and your immediate family would generally pay (more), (less), or about the same amount in taxes as you pay now?
Pay more Pay less Pay same amount No opinion 10/22/07 RV 45 14 38 3
31. As things stand now, regardless of who wins in November, do you think the next governor (will be able to meet the state's needs without raising taxes), or do you think he (will need to raise taxes in order to meet the state's needs)? IF NEED TO RAISE: Do you think taxes will need to go up a lot or a little?
--- Need to raise ----
NET A lot A little Meet needs without raising taxes No opinion
5/6/10 53 18 35 36 11 