Washington Post-ABC News Poll

The Washington Post
Friday, August 3, 2007

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone July 26-31, 2007, among a random sample of 500 Iowans likely to vote in the Democratic caucuses. The results have a four percentage point margin of sampling error. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

*= less than 0.5 percent

1. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) Are you registered to vote in Iowa at your present address, or not?

            Yes    No   No opinion
7/31/07     100     0        0


2. How closely are you following the 2008 presidential campaign: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?

            ----- Closely ------     ----- Not closely ------      No
            NET    Very    Smwt.     NET    Not too    At all    opinion   
7/31/07     88      42      46       12         9         3         *  

3. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will attend one of the Iowa presidential caucuses that will be held in your precinct next January. Are you absolutely certain you will attend, will you probably attend, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

              Certain   Probably  Chances  Less than    Will not      No 
             to attend   attend    50/50     50/50    attend (vol.)  opin.
7/31/07          50        50        0         0           0           0

4. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) If the caucuses were being held today, would you attend the (Democratic Party caucus) or the (Republican Party caucus) in your precinct?


              Democratic caucus  Republican caucus
7/31/07           100                  0

5. If the Democratic caucus were being held today, and the candidates were: (Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, and Mike Gravel), who would you support?

NET LEANED VOTE: 

                          7/31/07
Barack Obama                27
Hillary Clinton             26
John Edwards                26
Bill Richardson             11
Joe Biden                    2
Dennis Kucinich              2
Chris Dodd                   1
None of these (vol.)         2
No opinion                   4

6. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Do you support (CANDIDATE) strongly, or somewhat?

 7/31/07 - Summary Table

                    Strongly       Somewhat       No opin. 
Hillary Clinton        60             39             1
John Edwards           53             47             0
Barack Obama           56             44             0

 

7. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Who would your second choice be?

NET LEANED VOTE: 

                          7/31/07
Barack Obama                26
Hillary Clinton             23
John Edwards                23
Bill Richardson             12
Joe Biden                    4
Chris Dodd                   3
Dennis Kucinich              1
Mike Gravel                  *
Other (vol.)                 1
None of these (vol.)         4
Would not vote (vol.)        1
No opinion                   3


First choice/Second choice NET

                          7/31/07
Barack Obama                51
Hillary Clinton             48
John Edwards                48
Bill Richardson             22
Joe Biden                    5
Chris Dodd                   4
Dennis Kucinich              3
Mike Gravel                  *
Other (vol.)                 1
None of these (vol.)         5
Would not vote (vol.)        1
No opinion                   7

8. Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice of candidates for the Democratic nomination for president - are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied?

              ---- Satisfied -------     --- Dissatisfied ----      No
             NET    Very    Somewhat    NET   Somewhat    Very   opinion
7/31/07      89      53        36       10        9         1       1

9. Regardless of who you may support, which of the Democratic candidates do you think (ITEM) - (Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden , Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, or Mike Gravel)?

7/31/07 - Summary Table

                                                                               Other/none/
                                         Clinton   Edwards   Obama   Richardson   no opin.      
a. is the strongest leader                  36        18       23        9           13
b. best understands the problems 
     of people like you                     22        25       27        9           17
c. is the most honest and trustworthy       14        24       30        8           24
d. has the best experience to be president  50        15        7       13           15
e. has campaigned the hardest in Iowa       30        29       22        3           16
f. has the best chance of getting elected 
     president in November 2008             35        22       23        4           16 
g. is closest to you on the issues          20        24       26       11           19
h. is best able to handle the situation 
     in Iraq                                29        16       17       12           25
i. is the most likeable                     14        33       33        9           11


Trend:

a. is the strongest leader

                    7/31/07
Hillary Clinton       36
Barack Obama          23
John Edwards          18
Bill Richardson        9
Joe Biden              2
Dennis Kucinich        1
Chris Dodd             *
All of them            *
None of them           2
No opinion             9

b. best understands the problems of people like you   

                    7/31/07
Barack Obama          27
John Edwards          25
Hillary Clinton       22
Bill Richardson        9
Chris Dodd             2
Dennis Kucinich        2
Joe Biden              1
Mike Gravel            *
All of them            1
None of them           4
No opinion             6

c. is the most honest and trustworthy            

                    7/31/07
Barack Obama          30
John Edwards          24
Hillary Clinton       14
Bill Richardson        8
Dennis Kucinich        3
Joe Biden              2
Chris Dodd             2
Mike Gravel            *
All of them            4
None of them           5
No opinion             9

d. has the best experience to be president

                    7/31/07
Hillary Clinton       50
John Edwards          15
Bill Richardson       13
Barack Obama           7
Joe Biden              5
Chris Dodd             2
Dennis Kucinich        *
All of them            2
None of them           3
No opinion             4

e. has campaigned the hardest in Iowa

                    7/31/07
Hillary Clinton       30
John Edwards          29
Barack Obama          22
Bill Richardson        3
Chris Dodd             1
All of them            3
None of them           1
No opinion            10

f. has the best chance of getting elected president in November 2008              

                    7/31/07
Hillary Clinton       35
Barack Obama          23
John Edwards          22
Bill Richardson        4
Joe Biden              1
Chris Dodd             *
Dennis Kucinich        *
All of them            1
None of them           2
No opinion            12

g. is closest to you on the issues

                    7/31/07
Barack Obama          26
John Edwards          24
Hillary Clinton       20
Bill Richardson       11
Dennis Kucinich        3
Joe Biden              2
Chris Dodd             1
All of them            2
None of them           3
No opinion             8

h. is best able to handle the situation in Iraq

                    7/31/07
Hillary Clinton       29
Barack Obama          17
John Edwards          16
Bill Richardson       12
Joe Biden              5
Chris Dodd             2
Dennis Kucinich        1
All of them            2
None of them           5
No opinion            12

i. is the most likeable

                    7/31/07
John Edwards          33
Barack Obama          33
Hillary Clinton       14
Bill Richardson        9
Joe Biden              1
Chris Dodd             *
Dennis Kucinich        *
All of them            2
None of them           1
No opinion             6

10. So far in the Democratic campaign, have you (ITEM)?

7/31/07 - Summary Table

                                      Yes     No     No opin. 
a. Been called on the telephone 
   by any of the campaigns             71     29        *
b. Attended a campaign event           40     60        0
c. Contributed money to any of 
   the presidential candidates         17     82        *
d. Visited any of the candidates' 
   Web sites on the Internet           33     67        0
e. Received e-mails from any           
   of the campaigns                    32     66        2

Trend: comparisons to Pew Research Center Iowa Democratic caucuses poll, December 2003.

a. Been called on the telephone by any of the campaigns

            Yes     No     No opin.
7/31/07      71     29        *
12/4/03      74     26        *

b. Attended a campaign event

            Yes     No     No opin.
7/31/07      40     60        0
12/4/03      34     66        *

c. Contributed money to any of the presidential candidates

            Yes     No     No opin.
7/31/07      17     82        *
12/4/03      20     79        1

d-e. No trend. 

11. All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

              ----- Worth fighting ----     --- Not worth fighting --     No     
              NET   Strongly   Somewhat     NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opinion 
7/31/07       11        5          6        87        8         79         2 

12. Have you attended any previous Iowa caucuses, or will this be your first caucus?

            Have attended     First caucus     No opinion
7/31/07           68               31               *

 

13. Which of these is more important to you in a candidate for president: (strength and experience) or (a new direction and new ideas)?

            Strength and    New direction      Both     Neither     No 
             experience     and new ideas     (vol.)     (vol.)    opin.
7/31/07          39               49            11         *         1


NOTE: J. Ann Selzer of Selzer & Company, Inc of Des Moines, Iowa consulted on this project.

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