Washington Post Virginia Governor's Race Poll
This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone September 14-17, 2009, among a random sample of 1,003 likely voters in the Commonwealth of Virginia including users of both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
*= less than 0.5 percent
1. (IF REGISTERED VOTER) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the governor's election: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?
Certain Probably Chances Less than Don't think No
to Vote vote 50/50 50/50 will vote(vol.) opinion
9/17/09 LV 100 0 0 0 0 0
9/17/09 RV 53 19 16 9 3 1
8/14/09 RV 61 16 13 7 2 *
10/26/05 LV 100 0 0 0 0 0
9/9/05 LV 100 0 0 0 0 0
9/9/05 RV 68 18 9 4 1 0
10/25/01 RV 63 19 10 5 2 1
8/23/01 RV 68 16 10 5 1 *
8/27/00 RV 76 14 7 2 1 *
2. Would you say you are following this year's governor's race in the state of Virginia very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?
------Closely------ -----Not closely-----
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all No opinion
9/17/09 LV 84 34 51 15 12 4 *
8/14/09 LV 67 25 42 32 23 9 1
8/14/09 RV 48 17 32 51 30 21 *
10/26/05 LV 87 31 56 13 10 2 *
9/9/05 LV 73 20 53 27 20 7 *
9/9/05 RV 59 15 44 41 26 15 *
8/23/01 RV 60 16 44 39 26 13 1
8/27/00 RV 61 21 40 38 25 13 *
6/23/94 RV 74 27 47 27 18 9 *
2/3/94 73 27 46 27 18 9 *
9/93 RV 68 21 47 31 21 10 *
3. Thinking ahead to that election, what is the single most important issue in your choice for governor?
8/14/09 8/14/09 9/17/09
RV LV LV
Economy/jobs/unemployment 28 29 27
Education 8 7 10
Health care/health reform 8 8 9
Taxes 8 8 9
Transportation/traffic/roads and transit 7 9 7
State budget/deficit 5 6 5
Political party/party affiliation/whether Democrat or Republican 3 3 5
Ethics/honesty/corruption in government 3 2 4
Abortion 2 2 2
Background/character/credibility/education/experience of candidate 1 1 2
Fiscal/fiscal responsibility 1 2 2
Energy issues/gas prices/cap & trade * * 1
Environment/global warming 1 1 1
Government/Growth of government/government spending 1 2 1
Guns/Gun control 1 1 1
Obama/Barack Obama * * 1
Constitution/politics/political agenda/doing right for the state 1 1 1
Conservative/less liberal ideology 1 1 1
Human services/people's rights/helping/representing the people 1 2 1
Views/ideas/values 1 2 1
Women's rights/issues NA NA 1
Afghanistan/War in Afghanistan 0 0 *
Crime * * *
Gay marriage * * *
Housing/mortgages/affordable housing 1 * *
Immigration/illegal immigration * * *
Iraq/War in Iraq * 1 *
Stimulus money * * *
McDonnell's thesis NA NA *
Other 5 4 3
None 0 0 *
No opinion 14 7 6
4. If the election were being held today and the candidates were (Creigh Deeds, the Democrat) and (Bob McDonnell, the Republican), for whom would you vote?
Net Leaned Vote: Other Wouldn't No
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) vote (vol.) opinion
9/17/09 LV 47 51 * 0 2
8/14/09 LV 39 54 1 * 7
8/14/09 RV 40 47 1 3 9
5. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE) in November, or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
Deeds: --------Change mind--------
Definitely vote NET Good chance Unlikely No opinion
9/17/09 LV 72 26 10 16 2
8/14/09 LV 62 33 12 21 5
8/14/09 RV 61 35 15 20 4
McDonnell: --------Change mind--------
Definitely vote NET Good chance Unlikely No opinion
9/17/09 LV 69 28 7 21 3
8/14/09 LV 59 38 18 21 3
8/14/09 RV 50 46 21 26 4
6. Thinking about his candidacy for governor so far, how enthusiastic are you about (CANDIDATE) -- very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
Among Leaned Deeds/McDonnell Supporters:
---Enthusiastic---- --Not enthusiastic---
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all No opinion
a. Deeds 82 22 60 17 14 3 1
b. McDonnell 89 36 53 10 9 1 *
Trend:
a. Deeds ---Enthusiastic---- --Not enthusiastic---
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all No opinion
9/17/09 LV 82 22 60 17 14 3 1
8/14/09 LV 79 16 63 19 15 4 2
8/14/09 RV 67 12 56 31 22 8 2
b. McDonnell ---Enthusiastic---- --Not enthusiastic---
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all No opinion
9/17/09 LV 89 36 53 10 9 1 *
8/14/09 LV 79 26 53 18 15 3 3
8/14/09 RV 68 20 48 29 20 9 3
7. Do you think (NAME) views on most issues are (too liberal for you), (too conservative for you), or just about right?
Too Too Just about No
liberal conservative right opinion
a. Deeds's 42 6 47 5
b. McDonnell's 7 40 47 5
Trend data:
a. Deeds
Too Too Just about No
liberal conservative right opinion
9/17/09 LV 42 6 47 5
8/14/09 LV 39 7 37 18
8/14/09 RV 32 7 39 22
b. McDonnell
Too Too Just about No
liberal conservative right opinion
9/17/09 LV 7 40 47 5
8/14/09 LV 6 30 46 18
8/14/09 RV 9 27 38 26
Compare to:
Jerry Kilgore:
Too Too Just about Don't know No
liberal conservative right enough yet* opinion
10/26/05 LV 8 38 49 NA 5
9/9/05 LV 8 31 47 12 3
9/9/05 RV 8 26 43 19 4
Tim Kaine:
Too Too Just about Don't know No
liberal conservative right enough yet* opinion
10/26/05 LV 40 6 49 NA 5
9/9/05 LV 31 7 45 13 3
9/9/05 RV 27 7 41 22 4
*"Don't know enough yet" respondents are those who said they knew "nothing at all"
or "don't know" about the candidate's qualifications to be governor. They were not
asked this question, but are shown as part of the base.
8. Regardless of how you may vote, whom do you trust to do a better job handling [ITEM] -- (Deeds) or (McDonnell)?
Both Neither
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) (vol.) No opinion
a. Issues of special concern to women 48 38 2 3 9
b. The abortion issue 44 42 2 4 8
c. Transportation issues 38 46 3 3 10
d. Gun control 36 47 2 4 11
e. The state budget 40 49 2 2 7
f. The economy and jobs 43 48 1 4 3
g. Taxes 39 50 2 4 5
h. Health care 47 43 2 5 4
i. Education 47 43 3 2 5
*Full sample asked item a; half sample asked items b-e; other half sample asked items f-i.
Trend data (no trend available for women's issues, state budget, health care or education):
b. The abortion issue
Both Neither
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) (vol.) No opinion
9/17/09 LV 44 42 2 4 8
8/14/09 LV 34 39 2 6 20
8/14/09 RV 34 34 1 6 24
c. Transportation issues
Both Neither
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) (vol.) No opinion
9/17/09 LV 38 46 3 3 10
8/14/09 LV 31 43 3 6 17
8/14/09 RV 35 34 3 6 22
d. Gun control
Both Neither
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) (vol.) No opinion
9/17/09 LV 36 47 2 4 11
8/14/09 LV 27 48 3 5 17
8/14/09 RV 31 38 3 5 22
f. The economy and jobs
Both Neither
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) (vol.) No opinion
9/17/09 LV 43 48 1 4 3
8/14/09 LV 35 50 2 4 9
8/14/09 RV 38 40 2 4 15
g. Taxes
Both Neither
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) (vol.) No opinion
9/17/09 LV 39 50 2 4 5
8/14/09 LV 31 50 2 4 12
8/14/09 RV 35 42 2 5 16
9. Regardless of how you may vote, do you think (Deeds) or (McDonnell) [ITEM]?
Among likely voters: Both Neither No
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) (vol.) op.
a. would be a more effective leader 45 50 2 1 2
b. better understands the problems of people like you 46 45 2 4 3
c. is more honest and trustworthy 36 38 10 8 8
d. more closely shares your values 43 50 2 2 3
*Half sample asked items a-b; other half sample asked items c-d.
10. In deciding how to vote for governor, what would you say is more important to you -- the candidates' (positions on the issues) or the candidates' (personal values), or would you say they're equally important?
Positions Personal Equally No
on issues values important opin.
9/17/09 LV 31 6 63 *
10/12/06* LV 34 5 61 *
*"support for U.S. Senate"
11. Do you think (NAME) would rely on his religious beliefs too much, too little or about the right amount when making policy decisions?
Among likely voters:
Too Too About the No
much little right amount opinion
a. Creigh Deeds 7 15 59 18
b. Bob McDonnell 30 6 54 10
Compare to:
Jerry Kilgore:
Too Too About the Don't know No
much little right amount enough yet opinion
10/26/05 LV 22 10 58 NA 10
9/9/05 LV 21 8 52 12 8
9/9/05 RV 17 9 47 19 7
Tim Kaine:
Too Too About the Don't know No
much little right amount enough yet opinion
10/26/05 LV 13 13 63 NA 11
9/9/05 LV 7 16 55 13 9
9/9/05 RV 7 15 48 22 8
12. There's been news recently about a report McDonnell wrote as a 34-year-old graduate student in 1989 expressing his views on some social issues and the role of government. How much if anything have you heard about this -- a great deal, a good amount, just some or hardly anything?
-Great deal/Good amount- --- Some/Hardly any/None ---
Great Good Just Hardly None No
NET deal amount NET some any (vol.) opinion
9/17/09 LV 46 24 21 54 20 28 6 *
13. In his thesis, McDonnell criticized working mothers and homosexuals as detrimental to families and urged the promotion of traditional values through government. (McDonnell calls this not in-line with his current views) while (Deeds says this shows McDonnell's real positions on these issues). In thinking about your vote for governor, does this thesis make you [more likely] to support McDonnell, [less likely] or won't it affect your vote one way or the other? (IF MORE/LESS) Is that much more/less likely or somewhat more/less likely?
---- More likely ---- ---- Less likely ---- Won't No
NET Much Somewhat NET Somewhat Much affect opinion
9/17/09 LV 11 7 4 30 9 21 58 1
14. Changing topics, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tim Kaine is handling his job as governor? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
9/17/09 LV 59 27 33 38 17 22 2
8/14/09 LV 51 22 29 45 20 25 4
8/14/09 RV 55 23 32 38 18 20 7
8/14/09 All 56 21 34 36 18 18 8
9/21/08 RV 66 25 9
10/8/07 LV 66 27 7
10/8/07 All 63 25 12
10/12/06 LV 77 19 4
15. Which of the following statements comes closest to your own views: a. We need a governor who can get the state going in a new direction OR b. We need a governor who can keep the state moving in the same direction we're going.
New direction Same direction No opinion 9/17/09 LV 63 35 3 9/9/05 RV 49 49 3 10/25/01 LV 58 38 4 8/23/01 RV 55 42 4 9/16/97 RV 48 48 5 9/93 RV 76 21 3 9/89 RV 58 34 8
16. On another subject, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
9/17/09 LV 53 38 15 47 11 36 1
8/14/09 LV 47 32 15 51 10 41 2
8/14/09 RV 57 39 17 41 11 31 2
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling [ITEM]? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
Among likely voters:
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
a. The economy 52 35 17 47 9 38 1
b. Health care 48 31 17 51 7 43 1
*Half sample asked item a; other half sample asked item b.
Trend:
a. The economy
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
9/17/09 LV 52 35 17 47 9 38 1
8/14/09 LV 45 28 17 54 8 46 1
8/14/09 52 32 20 47 11 36 2
b. Health care
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
9/17/09 LV 48 31 17 51 7 43 1
8/14/09 LV 41 24 17 57 5 52 2
8/14/09 49 29 20 48 7 41 3
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way (ITEM) are doing their job?
Among likely voters:
Approve Disapprove No opinion
a. The Democrats in Congress 37 62 1
b. The Republicans in Congress 27 71 2
19. Which comes closer to the way you feel: government reform of the nation's health care system (is necessary to control costs and expand coverage), or government action on health care (will do more harm than good)? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
------- Necessary ------- -- More harm than good --
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
9/17/09 LV 52 39 12 46 7 39 3
8/14/09 LV 45 33 13 52 8 44 2
8/14/09 50 32 18 47 13 34 2
20. On another subject, do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?
------ Legal ------ ----- Illegal -----
All Most Most All No
NET cases cases NET cases cases opinion
9/17/09 LV 58 19 40 39 27 12 3
8/14/09 LV 54 18 37 41 27 14 4
8/14/09 RV 55 17 38 41 26 15 4
8/14/09 All 55 18 37 42 26 16 3
9/21/08 RV 60 22 38 38 25 12 3
6/3/07 RV 56 19 38 39 25 14 5
6/3/07 All 55 18 37 40 25 15 4
10/26/05 LV 61 21 39 38 28 10 2
9/9/05 LV 54 21 33 43 29 14 2
9/9/05 RV 55 21 35 43 28 15 2
10/25/01 LV 57 21 36 39 28 11 4
8/23/01 RV 57 21 37 39 27 12 3
10/26/00 LV 58 18 40 38 27 12 4
8/27/00 LV 57 16 40 38 26 12 5
8/27/00 RV 57 18 39 38 26 12 5
21. Considering everything, do you think it would be better or worse for the country if men and women went back to the traditional roles they had in the 1950s, or don't you think it would make a difference? (IF BETTER/WORSE) Do you feel that way STRONGLY, or SOMEWHAT?
-------- Better -------- --------- Worse -------- No No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Strongly Somewhat difference opinion
9/17/09 LV 22 15 7 42 7 36 30 5
Compare to National:
-------- Better -------- --------- Worse -------- No No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Strongly Somewhat difference opinion
11/23/97 38 NA NA 34 NA NA 25 3
22. Which view comes closest to your own: (Government should promote policies and programs discouraging homosexuality.), (Government should promote policies and programs that treat homosexuality as acceptable.), OR Government should not get involved in this issue.
9/17/09 LV
Government policies should discourage homosexuality. 11
Government policies should treat homosexuality as acceptable. 19
Government should not get involved in this issue. 69
No opinion 1
Compare to National:
Q. Which view comes closest to your own: Government should promote policies and
programs discouraging homosexuality, or Government should promote policies and
programs that treat homosexuality as an acceptable lifestyle, or Government
should not get involved in this issue?
9/17/00 8/27/98
Government policies should discourage homosexuality. 16 12
Government policies should treat homosexuality as acceptable. 14 10
Government should not get involved in this issue. 69 76
No opinion 1 2
23. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or what? IF NOT DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN: Do you lean more towards the (Democratic Party) or (Republican Party)?
--Non-Partisans--
Lean Lean No
Democrat Republican Independent Other No opinion Dem. Rep. Lean
9/17/09 LV 32 29 34 5 * 12 19 8
9/17/09 RV 34 27 32 5 1 12 15 11
9/17/09 33 25 33 7 2 12 14 16
8/14/09 LV 27 34 34 4 1 11 20 8
8/14/09 RV 31 29 35 4 1 13 17 9
8/14/09 31 28 37 3 1 15 16 11
10/25/08 LV 36 28 33 4 * 15 14 8
10/25/08 RV 36 28 33 4 * 15 13 9
10/25/08 35 26 31 6 1 14 12 12
9/21/08 LV 33 28 34 5 1 15 16 8
9/21/08 RV 34 25 35 6 1 15 16 10
9/21/08 33 24 34 7 2 15 15 13
10/8/07 RV 32 29 34 4 1 15 13 11
10/8/07 30 27 38 4 1 18 13 11
6/3/07 RV 33 29 29 4 4 12 11 14
6/3/07 34 27 28 4 6 12 12 16
10/12/06 LV 33 32 32 3 * 14 12 9
10/26/05 LV 33 37 26 3 1 13 10 6
9/9/05 LV 34 37 25 4 * 12 13 5
9/9/05 RV 32 34 29 4 * 13 13 7
10/25/01 LV 31 37 26 5 1 10 12 10
8/23/01 LV 35 38 24 3 * 12 11 4
8/23/01 RV 32 33 29 5 1 15 12 8
10/26/00 LV 33 32 28 6 1 11 13 10
8/27/00 LV 30 36 29 5 1 11 13 10
8/27/00 RV 29 34 32 5 1 12 14 11
10/21/97 LV 31 32 31 5 1 12 14 11
9/16/97 LV 30 31 33 4 1 13 14 11
9/16/97 RV 28 31 35 4 1 14 14 17
6/23/94 29 29 32 8 2 12 15 18
9/28/93 RV 30 30 35 4 1 13 12 10
11/2/89 LV 33 32 31 3 1 NA NA NA
24. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Would you say your views on most political matters are liberal, moderate, or conservative?
Don't think in
Liberal Moderate Conservative those terms (vol.) No opinion
9/17/09 LV 20 44 36 * 1
8/14/09 LV 20 37 41 1 1
8/14/09 RV 21 42 35 1 1
8/14/09 22 43 34 1 1
10/25/08 LV 19 45 32 2 2
10/25/08 RV 19 45 32 2 2
9/21/08 LV 21 46 30 2 1
9/21/08 RV 22 47 29 2 1
25. Aside from weddings and funerals, how often do you attend religious services: more than once a week, once a week, once or twice a month, a few times a year, seldom or never?
------- Weekly ---------
Once or twice A few times
NET >1/week Once/week per month a year Seldom Never No op.
9/17/09 LV 44 16 28 18 18 11 9 *
8/14/09 LV 43 15 27 20 18 10 9 *
8/14/09 RV 39 14 25 21 20 11 9 *
8/14/09 37 13 24 20 19 12 11 *
10/25/08 LV 41 14 27 16 20 15 8 *
10/25/08 RV 40 13 26 17 20 15 8 *
26. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Which of the following CATEGORIES best describes your total annual household income before taxes, from all sources?
-------Less than $50k------- --------More than $50k--------
NET <20k 20-35k 35-50k NET 50-75k 75-100k 100k+
9/17/09 LV 30 8 9 13 69 18 18 33
8/14/09 LV 26 6 7 13 72 22 16 33
8/14/09 RV 36 9 11 15 62 20 15 27
8/14/09 42 14 12 16 56 18 14 24
10/25/08 LV 36 9 11 16 62 19 14 28
10/25/08 RV 37 10 11 16 61 19 14 27
9/21/08 LV 31 7 8 15 68 19 18 31
9/21/08 RV 36 11 9 16 62 17 17 27
9/21/08 40 13 11 16 58 19 14 25 