Sept. 28, 2010, Maryland governor's race poll

Key

*--less than 0.5 percent
RV--Registered voters
LV--Likely voters (who say they are "absolutely certain" to vote)
All--All responses

This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone September 22-26, 2010, among a random sample of 1,448 adult residents of Maryland, including 1,196 registered voters and 730 likely voters. Interviews were conducted on both conventional and cellular phones, and in English and Spanish. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points; it is 3.5 points for the registered voter sample and four points for likely voters. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt SRBI, Inc of New York, NY.

1. Are you registered to vote at your present address, or not?

             Yes     No     No opinion
9/26/10       81     19          *

Are you registered as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or something else?

              Democrat   Republican   Independent   Something else   No opinion
9/26/10  RV      57          26           13               3              2
5/6/10   RV      56          27           13               3              1
10/20/08 RV      57          29           14               *              *
10/22/07 RV      56          25           14               4              1
10/26/06 RV      56          30           11               3              1 
6/25/06  RV      51          29           14               4              1

2. (If respondent is a registered voter.) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the upcoming election for governor and U.S. Senator this November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? Some respondents said they didn't think they would vote.

                                  9/26/10 RV   5/6/10 RV   10/26/06 RV
                 Certain to vote      71          67           72
              Probably will vote      14          19           13
          50-50 chance of voting      10          11            7
Less than 50-50 chance of voting       4           2            4
      Don't think they will vote       1           1            1
                      No opinion       *           *            1

3. (If respondent is a registered voter.) Would you say you are following this year's governor's race in the state of Maryland very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?

               -------Closely-------     --------Not closely-------     
               NET    Very    Fairly     NET   Not too   Not at all    No opinion
9/26/10   RV   72      32       40       27       17         11             *
9/26/10   LV   86      42       44       14       10          4             *
5/6/10    RV   61      26       35       38       23         15             1 
10/26/06  LV   91      49       42        9        8          2             * 
10/24/02  LV   89      45       44       10        8          2             *

4. (If respondent is a registered voter.) As you may know, the candidates for Maryland governor in 2010 are: (Martin O'Malley, the Democrat), (Bob Ehrlich, the Republican), (Maria Allwine, from the Green Party), (Susan Gaztanaga, the Libertarian) and (Eric Knowles from the Constitution Party); if the election were held today, for whom would you vote? Which one would you lean toward right now? (Though not offered as an option, some respondents said they would vote for neither O'Malley nor Ehrlich.)

              O'Malley   Ehrlich   Other*   Neither   Would not vote   No opinion
9/26/10  RV      49        35        3        N/A           2              10   
9/26/10  LV      52        41        2        N/A          N/A              4         
5/6/10   RV      49        41        *         3            1               6
5/6/10   LV      47        47        *         2           N/A              4
10/20/08 RV      57        36        *         1            1               5
2006 Election    53        46        1        N/A          N/A             N/A
10/26/06 LV      55        45        0         1           N/A              *
6/25/06  LV      55        39        *         1           N/A              4
6/25/06  RV      51        40        *         3           N/A              5

*All other candidates mentioned.

5. (If respondent says they'll vote for or leans toward O'Malley or Ehrlich.) Will you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (If respondent says there's a chance they could change their mind.) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?

Among registered voters who are leaned O'Malley/Ehrlich supporters:

                            -- Chance they'll change mind --      
             Definitely     NET        Good         Unlikely     No opinion
O'Malley         71          27         10             17             2
Ehrlich          74          24         10             14             2

Trend for O'Malley:

                            -- Chance they'll change mind --      
             Definitely     NET        Good         Unlikely     No opinion
9/26/10  RV      71          27         10             17             2     
9/26/10  LV      77          21          7             14             1     
5/6/10   RV      55          41         17             24             4
5/6/10   LV      63          33         15             18             5
10/26/06 LV      85          15          5             10             *

Trend for Ehrlich:

                            -- Chance they'll change mind --      
             Definitely     NET        Good         Unlikely     No opinion
9/26/10  RV      74          24         10             14             2     
9/26/10  LV      80          18          7             11             2     
5/6/10   RV      59          36         18             18             5
5/6/10   LV      67          29         13             16             4
10/26/06 LV      85          15          5             10             *

6. (If respondent plans to vote for or leans toward O'Malley or Ehrlich) Thinking about his candidacy for governor so far, how enthusiastic are you about (CANDIDATE) -- very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?

Among registered voters who are leaned O'Malley/Ehrlich supporters:

              --- Enthusiastic --    ---- Not Enthusiastic ----     
              NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too   Not at all    No opinion
O'Malley       80    34      47       19      16          3             1
Ehrlich        84    34      50       14      12          2             1

Trend for O'Malley:

              --- Enthusiastic --    ---- Not Enthusiastic ----     
              NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too   Not at all    No opinion
9/26/10  RV    80    34      47       19      16          3             1
9/26/10  LV    84    36      48       15      14          1             1
10/26/06 LV    88    42      46       11       9          2             1

Trend for Ehrlich:

              --- Enthusiastic --    ---- Not Enthusiastic ----     
              NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too   Not at all    No opinion
9/26/10  RV    84    34      50       14      12          2             1
9/26/10  LV    89    41      49       10       8          2             1
10/26/06 LV    93    54      39        6       5          1             1

7. (If respondent is a registered voter.) And on the Maryland governor's race: Which of the following issues do you think is the biggest problem facing the state of Maryland these days, the one you want the next governor to work hardest on: (crime), (taxes), (the state economy), (public education), (transportation), or (growth and development)?

                        9/26/10 RV   9/26/10 LV     10/26/06 LV    6/25/06 RV
                 Crime      11           11             18             20
                 Taxes      16           16              7             12
     The state economy      37           41             16             13
      Public education      20           16             37             35  
        Transportation       3            3              7              7
Growth and development       6            6             11              9
                 Other       5            6              3              3
            No opinion       2            1              1              1

8. (If respondent is a registered voter.) Please tell me whether each of the following statements applies more to (O'Malley) or more to (Ehrlich). (Though not provided as options, some respondents said the statements applied to both Ehrlich and O'Malley, or to neither of them.)

                                                           O'Malley  Ehrlich  Both  Neither   No opinion
                             He is honest and trustworthy     40       27       8     14          12  
           He understands the problems of people like you     44       32       4      9          11  
                                    He is a strong leader     42       33       8      6          11  
                   He has a vision for the state's future     42       30      10      6          11  
He would look out for the needs of your part of the state     44       31       5      9          11

Trend where available:

He is honest and trustworthy

              O'Malley  Ehrlich   Both   Neither   No opinion
9/26/10  RV      40       27        8      14          12
9/26/10  LV      42       30        7      14           8
5/6/10   RV      33       29       12      12          15
5/6/10   LV      31       36       12      11          10
10/26/06 LV      42       41        5       8           4

He understands the problems of people like you

              O'Malley  Ehrlich   Both   Neither   No opinion
9/26/10  RV      44       32        4       9          11
9/26/10  LV      45       35        5       9           6
5/6/10   RV      41       31        5      10          13
5/6/10   LV      39       39        4      10           9
10/26/06 LV      52       38        2       5           3

He is a strong leader

              O'Malley  Ehrlich   Both   Neither   No opinion
9/26/10  RV      42       33        8       6          11
9/26/10  LV      44       36        8       6           6
5/6/10   RV      35       37       10       6          12
5/6/10   LV      34       43       10       6           8
10/26/06 LV      44       45        6       3           3

He has a vision for the state's future

              O'Malley  Ehrlich   Both   Neither   No opinion
9/26/10  RV      42       30       10       6          11
9/26/10  LV      43       34        9       7           7
5/6/10   RV      38       31       11       6          15
5/6/10   LV      36       38       11       5          10
10/26/06 LV      46       42        6       3           3

9. (If respondent is a registered voter.) And which candidate, (O'Malley) or (Ehrlich), do you trust to do a better job on each of these issues?

                                               O'Malley  Ehrlich  Both  Neither   No opinion
Working effectively with the state legislature    49       28       5      4          13
                                         Crime    43       33       5      6          13
                                         Taxes    43       38       3      6          11
                              Public education    51       28       5      4          12
                             The state economy    43       37       4      5          10
                      The state budget deficit    41       38       2      8          11
	                       The environment    52       25       5      5          13

Trend where available:

Working effectively with the state legislature

              O'Malley  Ehrlich   Both   Neither   No opinion
9/26/10  RV      49       28        5       4          13
9/26/10  LV      52       30        4       4           9
5/6/10   RV      49       27        5       5          15
5/6/10   LV      50       30        5       4          10
10/26/06 LV      61       33        2       2           3

Crime

              O'Malley  Ehrlich   Both   Neither   No opinion
9/26/10  RV      43       33        5       6          13
9/26/10  LV      44       37        5       5           9
5/6/10   RV      40       34        5       6          16
5/6/10   LV      39       41        5       5          11
10/26/06 LV      46       45        2       4           4

Taxes

              O'Malley  Ehrlich   Both   Neither   No opinion
9/26/10  RV      43       38        3       6          11
9/26/10  LV      42       42        3       6           7
5/6/10   RV      36       44        3       5          12
5/6/10   LV      34       50        3       5           7
10/26/06 LV      47       45        1       3           4

Public education

              O'Malley  Ehrlich   Both   Neither   No opinion
9/26/10  RV      51       28        5       4          12
9/26/10  LV      52       31        5       4           7
5/6/10   RV      49       29        6       3          13
5/6/10   LV      47       36        5       3           9
10/26/06 LV      50       43        2       3           2

The state economy

              O'Malley  Ehrlich   Both   Neither   No opinion
9/26/10  RV      43       37        4       5          10
9/26/10  LV      45       41        4       5           5
5/6/10   RV      39       43        2       4          11
5/6/10   LV      38       51        2       4           5
10/26/06 LV      46       48        1       2           3

The state budget deficit

              O'Malley  Ehrlich   Both   Neither   No opinion
9/26/10  RV      41       38        2       8          11
9/26/10  LV      40       43        3       6           7
5/6/10   RV      39       43        2       4          11
5/6/10   LV      38       51        2       4           5

The environment

              O'Malley  Ehrlich   Both   Neither   No opinion
9/26/10  RV      52       25        5       5          13
9/26/10  LV      53       28        5       5           8
5/6/10   RV      39       43        2       4          11
5/6/10   LV      38       51        2       4           5

10. (If respondent is a registered voter.) Do you think [NAME]'s views on most issues are (too liberal) for you, (too conservative), or just about right?

           Too liberal   Too conservative   About right   No opinion
O'Malley       30                7              52            11
Ehrlich         6               31              46            17

Trend where available:

O'Malley

              Too liberal   Too conservative   About right   No opinion
9/26/10  RV       30                7              52            11
5/6/10   RV       34                8              45            13

Bob Ehrlich

              Too liberal   Too conservative   About right   No opinion
9/26/10  RV        9               35              42            14
5/6/10   RV        6               31              46            17
1/7/04   RV        8               29              59             4
10/24/02 LV       10               33              49             7

11. Do you think things in the state of Maryland are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

                 Right direction     Wrong track     No opinion
9/26/10                40                49              11
9/26/10  RV            42                51               7
5/6/10                 39                49              12
5/6/10   RV            41                52               7
10/20/08 RV            31                63               6
10/22/07 RV            45                48               7
10/26/06 LV            57                39               5
6/25/06  RV            44                50               6
1/7/04   RV            56                36               8
10/24/02 LV            42                51               7
10/22/98 RV            54                36              10
6/17/98  LV            56                32              11
6/17/98  All           53                34              13
12/19/93 All           33                56              11

12. Generally speaking, how would you rate the overall economy of Maryland: excellent, good, not-so-good or poor?

             --- Excellent/Good ---    -----Not so good/Poor-----      
             NET   Excellent   Good    NET    Not so good    Poor   No opinion
9/26/10      40        3        37      59        43          16         2
9/26/10  RV  40        3        37      59        43          16         1
5/6/10       41        3        38      57        42          15         2 
5/6/10   RV  44        2        41      55        40          15         1 
10/22/07 RV  62        6        56      36        27          10         1 
10/22/07     64        6        58      35        24          10         1 
1/7/04   RV  61        3        58      38        31           7         1 
1/7/04       63        4        59      36        28           8         1 
10/24/02 LV  57        3        54      42        33           9         1
10/22/98 LV  76        8        67      23        18           4         2
6/17/98  LV  78       10        68      20        16           4         2
6/17/98      75        8        67      23        17           6         3

13. (If respondent is a registered voter.) Regardless of how you may vote) Do you approve or disapprove of the way Martin O'Malley is handling his job as governor? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?

              -------- Approve --------    ------- Disapprove ------    
              NET   Strongly   Somewhat    NET   Somewhat   Strongly   No opinion
9/26/10        57      20         37        33      16         17          11
9/26/10  RV    60      22         39        33      15         18           6
5/6/10         54      17         37        34      17         17          12
5/6/10   RV    58      19         39        34      17         17           8
10/20/08 RV    53      14         39        37      16         21          10
10/22/07 RV    51      13         38        39      17         22          11
10/22/07       53      12         40        36      18         19          11

Compare to Bob Ehrlich:

              -------- Approve --------    ------- Disapprove ------    
              NET   Strongly   Somewhat    NET   Somewhat   Strongly   No opinion
10/26/06 LV    55      30         25        42      19         23           3
6/25/06  RV    56      21         36        41      21         20           3
1/7/04   RV    64      23         41        29      17         12           8
1/7/04   All   62      21         42        28      17         11          10

Compare to Parris Glendening:

              -------- Approve --------    ------- Disapprove ------    
              NET   Strongly   Somewhat    NET   Somewhat   Strongly   No opinion
10/24/02 LV    37       9         29        58      22         37           4
10/22/98 LV    54      16         38        40      21         19           6
6/17/98  LV    55      14         41        36      19         18           9

14. (If respondent is a registered voter.) Do you approve or disapprove of the way O'Malley is handling the issue of the state budget and taxes?

             Approve    Disapprove    No opinion
9/26/10  RV    45           43            12
5/6/10   RV    46           40            14 
10/22/07 RV    39           52            10

15. (If respondent is a registered voter.) How much would you say O'Malley has accomplished as governor: a lot, a fair amount, some, or not much?

              --- A lot/A fair amount ---     --- Some/Not much ---       
              NET   A lot   A fair amount     NET   Some   Not much     No opinion
9/26/10  RV    45     11         34            49    31       19             6 
5/6/10   RV    46      8         38            48    29       20             5
10/22/07 RV    28      3         25            67    32       35             4

(10/22/07 question included phrase "in his first year.")

16. Thinking back to when Ehrlich was governor, how much would you say Ehrlich accomplished as governor: a lot, a fair amount, some, or not much?

              --- A lot/A fair amount ---     --- Some/Not much ---       
              NET   A lot   A fair amount     NET   Some   Not much     No opinion
10/26/06 LV    51     14         37            47    28       19             1
9/26/06  RV    43      8         35            47    25       22            11     
6/25/06  RV    48      8         40            51    30       21             2
1/7/04   RV    49      6         43            47    29       18             4

(1/7/04 question included phrase "in his first year.")

17. (If respondent is a registered voter.) I am going to read you a list of names. For each, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person, or perhaps you don't know enough to say.

Among registered voters:

                     Favorable     Unfavorable     No opinion
Bob Ehrlich             55             32              13
Martin O'Malley         64             26              10

Trend for Bob Ehrlich:

               Favorable     Unfavorable     No opinion
9/26/10  RV       55             32              13
10/20/08 RV       48             30              22
10/20/08 LV       50             30              20
10/26/06 LV       56             40               5
6/25/06  RV       55             38               7
1/7/04   RV       68             18              14

Trend for Martin O'Malley:

               Favorable     Unfavorable     No opinion
9/26/10  RV       64             26              10
10/20/08 RV       56             31              13
10/20/08 LV       55             33              12
10/26/06 LV       62             29               8
6/25/06  RV       51             30              19
1/7/04   RV       54             12              34

18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?

            -------- Approve --------   ------- Disapprove ------     
            NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   No opinion
9/26/10      61      37         23       36      11         25           3
9/26/10 RV   61      37         24       37      10         26           2
5/6/10       62      40         21       34      10         24           5
5/6/10  RV   62      42         19       36       9         26           3

Compare to national:

           -------- Approve --------   ------- Disapprove ------        
           NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   No opinion
9/2/10      46      24         22       52      14         38           3
7/11/10     50      28         22       47      12         35           3
6/6/10      52      30         22       45      12         33           4
4/25/10     54      31         23       44      11         33           3
3/26/10     53      34         20       43       8         35           3
2/8/10      51      29         22       46      12         33           3
1/15/10     53      30         24       44      13         32           2

19. Thinking back to when George W. Bush was in office, would you say you approve or disapprove of the way Bush handled his job as president? Is that approve strongly or somewhat?

               -------- Approve --------   ------- Disapprove ------     
               NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   No opinion
9/26/10  RV     29       9         20       69      17         52           2
10/26/06 LV     33      16         17       66       9         56           1
6/25/06  RV     33      17         15       67      11         55           1
1/7/04   RV     54      34         21       45      14         30           1
1/7/04   All    55      33         21       44      14         30           1

(In 10/26/06 and previous polls, question was "Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?")

20. (If respondent is a registered voter.) One more question about the governor's race between O'Malley and Ehrlich: will one reason for your vote for governor be to express (support for) Obama, to express (opposition to) Obama, or is Obama not a factor in your choice?

              Support   Opposition   Not a factor   No opinion
9/26/10 RV      17          11           70              3
9/26/10 LV      16          12           70              2

Compare to George W. Bush: Was one reason for your vote for governor/Will one reason for your vote for governor be to express (support for) Bush, to express (opposition to) Bush, or is Bush not a factor in your choice?"

              Support   Opposition   Not a factor   No opinion
10/26/06 LV      5          19           75              *

21. (If respondent is a registered voter.) I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which one best describes how you feel about the way the federal government works. Do you feel enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry?

              ---------- Positive ----------    -------- Negative --------                       
              NET   Enthusiastic   Satisfied    NET   Dissatisfied   Angry    No opinion      
9/26/10 RV     38         4           35         59        42         18           2
5/6/10  RV     45         5           40         53        38         15           2

Compare to national:

              ---------- Positive ----------    -------- Negative --------                       
              NET   Enthusiastic   Satisfied    NET   Dissatisfied   Angry    Other/None   No opinion      
9/2/10  RV     22         3           19         78        52         26          NA            *

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