Sept. 28, 2010, Maryland governor's race poll
Key | ||
| * | -- | less than 0.5 percent |
| RV | -- | Registered voters |
| LV | -- | Likely voters (who say they are "absolutely certain" to vote) |
| All | -- | All responses |
This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone September 22-26, 2010, among a random sample of 1,448 adult residents of Maryland, including 1,196 registered voters and 730 likely voters. Interviews were conducted on both conventional and cellular phones, and in English and Spanish. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points; it is 3.5 points for the registered voter sample and four points for likely voters. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt SRBI, Inc of New York, NY.
1. Are you registered to vote at your present address, or not?
Yes No No opinion 9/26/10 81 19 *
Are you registered as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or something else?
Democrat Republican Independent Something else No opinion 9/26/10 RV 57 26 13 3 2 5/6/10 RV 56 27 13 3 1 10/20/08 RV 57 29 14 * * 10/22/07 RV 56 25 14 4 1 10/26/06 RV 56 30 11 3 1 6/25/06 RV 51 29 14 4 1
2. (If respondent is a registered voter.) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the upcoming election for governor and U.S. Senator this November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? Some respondents said they didn't think they would vote.
9/26/10 RV 5/6/10 RV 10/26/06 RV
Certain to vote 71 67 72
Probably will vote 14 19 13
50-50 chance of voting 10 11 7
Less than 50-50 chance of voting 4 2 4
Don't think they will vote 1 1 1
No opinion * * 1 3. (If respondent is a registered voter.) Would you say you are following this year's governor's race in the state of Maryland very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?
-------Closely------- --------Not closely-------
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all No opinion
9/26/10 RV 72 32 40 27 17 11 *
9/26/10 LV 86 42 44 14 10 4 *
5/6/10 RV 61 26 35 38 23 15 1
10/26/06 LV 91 49 42 9 8 2 *
10/24/02 LV 89 45 44 10 8 2 * 4. (If respondent is a registered voter.) As you may know, the candidates for Maryland governor in 2010 are: (Martin O'Malley, the Democrat), (Bob Ehrlich, the Republican), (Maria Allwine, from the Green Party), (Susan Gaztanaga, the Libertarian) and (Eric Knowles from the Constitution Party); if the election were held today, for whom would you vote? Which one would you lean toward right now? (Though not offered as an option, some respondents said they would vote for neither O'Malley nor Ehrlich.)
O'Malley Ehrlich Other* Neither Would not vote No opinion 9/26/10 RV 49 35 3 N/A 2 10 9/26/10 LV 52 41 2 N/A N/A 4 5/6/10 RV 49 41 * 3 1 6 5/6/10 LV 47 47 * 2 N/A 4 10/20/08 RV 57 36 * 1 1 5 2006 Election 53 46 1 N/A N/A N/A 10/26/06 LV 55 45 0 1 N/A * 6/25/06 LV 55 39 * 1 N/A 4 6/25/06 RV 51 40 * 3 N/A 5
*All other candidates mentioned.
5. (If respondent says they'll vote for or leans toward O'Malley or Ehrlich.) Will you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (If respondent says there's a chance they could change their mind.) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
Among registered voters who are leaned O'Malley/Ehrlich supporters:
-- Chance they'll change mind --
Definitely NET Good Unlikely No opinion
O'Malley 71 27 10 17 2
Ehrlich 74 24 10 14 2 Trend for O'Malley:
-- Chance they'll change mind --
Definitely NET Good Unlikely No opinion
9/26/10 RV 71 27 10 17 2
9/26/10 LV 77 21 7 14 1
5/6/10 RV 55 41 17 24 4
5/6/10 LV 63 33 15 18 5
10/26/06 LV 85 15 5 10 * Trend for Ehrlich:
-- Chance they'll change mind --
Definitely NET Good Unlikely No opinion
9/26/10 RV 74 24 10 14 2
9/26/10 LV 80 18 7 11 2
5/6/10 RV 59 36 18 18 5
5/6/10 LV 67 29 13 16 4
10/26/06 LV 85 15 5 10 * 6. (If respondent plans to vote for or leans toward O'Malley or Ehrlich) Thinking about his candidacy for governor so far, how enthusiastic are you about (CANDIDATE) -- very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
Among registered voters who are leaned O'Malley/Ehrlich supporters:
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not Enthusiastic ----
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all No opinion
O'Malley 80 34 47 19 16 3 1
Ehrlich 84 34 50 14 12 2 1 Trend for O'Malley:
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not Enthusiastic ----
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all No opinion
9/26/10 RV 80 34 47 19 16 3 1
9/26/10 LV 84 36 48 15 14 1 1
10/26/06 LV 88 42 46 11 9 2 1 Trend for Ehrlich:
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not Enthusiastic ----
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all No opinion
9/26/10 RV 84 34 50 14 12 2 1
9/26/10 LV 89 41 49 10 8 2 1
10/26/06 LV 93 54 39 6 5 1 1 7. (If respondent is a registered voter.) And on the Maryland governor's race: Which of the following issues do you think is the biggest problem facing the state of Maryland these days, the one you want the next governor to work hardest on: (crime), (taxes), (the state economy), (public education), (transportation), or (growth and development)?
9/26/10 RV 9/26/10 LV 10/26/06 LV 6/25/06 RV
Crime 11 11 18 20
Taxes 16 16 7 12
The state economy 37 41 16 13
Public education 20 16 37 35
Transportation 3 3 7 7
Growth and development 6 6 11 9
Other 5 6 3 3
No opinion 2 1 1 1 8. (If respondent is a registered voter.) Please tell me whether each of the following statements applies more to (O'Malley) or more to (Ehrlich). (Though not provided as options, some respondents said the statements applied to both Ehrlich and O'Malley, or to neither of them.)
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion
He is honest and trustworthy 40 27 8 14 12
He understands the problems of people like you 44 32 4 9 11
He is a strong leader 42 33 8 6 11
He has a vision for the state's future 42 30 10 6 11
He would look out for the needs of your part of the state 44 31 5 9 11 Trend where available:
He is honest and trustworthy
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion 9/26/10 RV 40 27 8 14 12 9/26/10 LV 42 30 7 14 8 5/6/10 RV 33 29 12 12 15 5/6/10 LV 31 36 12 11 10 10/26/06 LV 42 41 5 8 4
He understands the problems of people like you
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion 9/26/10 RV 44 32 4 9 11 9/26/10 LV 45 35 5 9 6 5/6/10 RV 41 31 5 10 13 5/6/10 LV 39 39 4 10 9 10/26/06 LV 52 38 2 5 3
He is a strong leader
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion 9/26/10 RV 42 33 8 6 11 9/26/10 LV 44 36 8 6 6 5/6/10 RV 35 37 10 6 12 5/6/10 LV 34 43 10 6 8 10/26/06 LV 44 45 6 3 3
He has a vision for the state's future
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion 9/26/10 RV 42 30 10 6 11 9/26/10 LV 43 34 9 7 7 5/6/10 RV 38 31 11 6 15 5/6/10 LV 36 38 11 5 10 10/26/06 LV 46 42 6 3 3
9. (If respondent is a registered voter.) And which candidate, (O'Malley) or (Ehrlich), do you trust to do a better job on each of these issues?
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion
Working effectively with the state legislature 49 28 5 4 13
Crime 43 33 5 6 13
Taxes 43 38 3 6 11
Public education 51 28 5 4 12
The state economy 43 37 4 5 10
The state budget deficit 41 38 2 8 11
The environment 52 25 5 5 13 Trend where available:
Working effectively with the state legislature
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion 9/26/10 RV 49 28 5 4 13 9/26/10 LV 52 30 4 4 9 5/6/10 RV 49 27 5 5 15 5/6/10 LV 50 30 5 4 10 10/26/06 LV 61 33 2 2 3
Crime
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion 9/26/10 RV 43 33 5 6 13 9/26/10 LV 44 37 5 5 9 5/6/10 RV 40 34 5 6 16 5/6/10 LV 39 41 5 5 11 10/26/06 LV 46 45 2 4 4
Taxes
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion 9/26/10 RV 43 38 3 6 11 9/26/10 LV 42 42 3 6 7 5/6/10 RV 36 44 3 5 12 5/6/10 LV 34 50 3 5 7 10/26/06 LV 47 45 1 3 4
Public education
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion 9/26/10 RV 51 28 5 4 12 9/26/10 LV 52 31 5 4 7 5/6/10 RV 49 29 6 3 13 5/6/10 LV 47 36 5 3 9 10/26/06 LV 50 43 2 3 2
The state economy
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion 9/26/10 RV 43 37 4 5 10 9/26/10 LV 45 41 4 5 5 5/6/10 RV 39 43 2 4 11 5/6/10 LV 38 51 2 4 5 10/26/06 LV 46 48 1 2 3
The state budget deficit
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion 9/26/10 RV 41 38 2 8 11 9/26/10 LV 40 43 3 6 7 5/6/10 RV 39 43 2 4 11 5/6/10 LV 38 51 2 4 5
The environment
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion 9/26/10 RV 52 25 5 5 13 9/26/10 LV 53 28 5 5 8 5/6/10 RV 39 43 2 4 11 5/6/10 LV 38 51 2 4 5
10. (If respondent is a registered voter.) Do you think [NAME]'s views on most issues are (too liberal) for you, (too conservative), or just about right?
Too liberal Too conservative About right No opinion O'Malley 30 7 52 11 Ehrlich 6 31 46 17
Trend where available:
O'Malley
Too liberal Too conservative About right No opinion 9/26/10 RV 30 7 52 11 5/6/10 RV 34 8 45 13
Bob Ehrlich
Too liberal Too conservative About right No opinion 9/26/10 RV 9 35 42 14 5/6/10 RV 6 31 46 17 1/7/04 RV 8 29 59 4 10/24/02 LV 10 33 49 7
11. Do you think things in the state of Maryland are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
Right direction Wrong track No opinion 9/26/10 40 49 11 9/26/10 RV 42 51 7 5/6/10 39 49 12 5/6/10 RV 41 52 7 10/20/08 RV 31 63 6 10/22/07 RV 45 48 7 10/26/06 LV 57 39 5 6/25/06 RV 44 50 6 1/7/04 RV 56 36 8 10/24/02 LV 42 51 7 10/22/98 RV 54 36 10 6/17/98 LV 56 32 11 6/17/98 All 53 34 13 12/19/93 All 33 56 11
12. Generally speaking, how would you rate the overall economy of Maryland: excellent, good, not-so-good or poor?
--- Excellent/Good --- -----Not so good/Poor-----
NET Excellent Good NET Not so good Poor No opinion
9/26/10 40 3 37 59 43 16 2
9/26/10 RV 40 3 37 59 43 16 1
5/6/10 41 3 38 57 42 15 2
5/6/10 RV 44 2 41 55 40 15 1
10/22/07 RV 62 6 56 36 27 10 1
10/22/07 64 6 58 35 24 10 1
1/7/04 RV 61 3 58 38 31 7 1
1/7/04 63 4 59 36 28 8 1
10/24/02 LV 57 3 54 42 33 9 1
10/22/98 LV 76 8 67 23 18 4 2
6/17/98 LV 78 10 68 20 16 4 2
6/17/98 75 8 67 23 17 6 3 13. (If respondent is a registered voter.) Regardless of how you may vote) Do you approve or disapprove of the way Martin O'Malley is handling his job as governor? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
9/26/10 57 20 37 33 16 17 11
9/26/10 RV 60 22 39 33 15 18 6
5/6/10 54 17 37 34 17 17 12
5/6/10 RV 58 19 39 34 17 17 8
10/20/08 RV 53 14 39 37 16 21 10
10/22/07 RV 51 13 38 39 17 22 11
10/22/07 53 12 40 36 18 19 11 Compare to Bob Ehrlich:
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
10/26/06 LV 55 30 25 42 19 23 3
6/25/06 RV 56 21 36 41 21 20 3
1/7/04 RV 64 23 41 29 17 12 8
1/7/04 All 62 21 42 28 17 11 10 Compare to Parris Glendening:
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
10/24/02 LV 37 9 29 58 22 37 4
10/22/98 LV 54 16 38 40 21 19 6
6/17/98 LV 55 14 41 36 19 18 9 14. (If respondent is a registered voter.) Do you approve or disapprove of the way O'Malley is handling the issue of the state budget and taxes?
Approve Disapprove No opinion 9/26/10 RV 45 43 12 5/6/10 RV 46 40 14 10/22/07 RV 39 52 10
15. (If respondent is a registered voter.) How much would you say O'Malley has accomplished as governor: a lot, a fair amount, some, or not much?
--- A lot/A fair amount --- --- Some/Not much ---
NET A lot A fair amount NET Some Not much No opinion
9/26/10 RV 45 11 34 49 31 19 6
5/6/10 RV 46 8 38 48 29 20 5
10/22/07 RV 28 3 25 67 32 35 4 (10/22/07 question included phrase "in his first year.")
16. Thinking back to when Ehrlich was governor, how much would you say Ehrlich accomplished as governor: a lot, a fair amount, some, or not much?
--- A lot/A fair amount --- --- Some/Not much ---
NET A lot A fair amount NET Some Not much No opinion
10/26/06 LV 51 14 37 47 28 19 1
9/26/06 RV 43 8 35 47 25 22 11
6/25/06 RV 48 8 40 51 30 21 2
1/7/04 RV 49 6 43 47 29 18 4 (1/7/04 question included phrase "in his first year.")
17. (If respondent is a registered voter.) I am going to read you a list of names. For each, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person, or perhaps you don't know enough to say.
Among registered voters:
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Bob Ehrlich 55 32 13 Martin O'Malley 64 26 10
Trend for Bob Ehrlich:
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 9/26/10 RV 55 32 13 10/20/08 RV 48 30 22 10/20/08 LV 50 30 20 10/26/06 LV 56 40 5 6/25/06 RV 55 38 7 1/7/04 RV 68 18 14
Trend for Martin O'Malley:
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 9/26/10 RV 64 26 10 10/20/08 RV 56 31 13 10/20/08 LV 55 33 12 10/26/06 LV 62 29 8 6/25/06 RV 51 30 19 1/7/04 RV 54 12 34
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
9/26/10 61 37 23 36 11 25 3
9/26/10 RV 61 37 24 37 10 26 2
5/6/10 62 40 21 34 10 24 5
5/6/10 RV 62 42 19 36 9 26 3 Compare to national:
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
9/2/10 46 24 22 52 14 38 3
7/11/10 50 28 22 47 12 35 3
6/6/10 52 30 22 45 12 33 4
4/25/10 54 31 23 44 11 33 3
3/26/10 53 34 20 43 8 35 3
2/8/10 51 29 22 46 12 33 3
1/15/10 53 30 24 44 13 32 2 19. Thinking back to when George W. Bush was in office, would you say you approve or disapprove of the way Bush handled his job as president? Is that approve strongly or somewhat?
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
9/26/10 RV 29 9 20 69 17 52 2
10/26/06 LV 33 16 17 66 9 56 1
6/25/06 RV 33 17 15 67 11 55 1
1/7/04 RV 54 34 21 45 14 30 1
1/7/04 All 55 33 21 44 14 30 1 (In 10/26/06 and previous polls, question was "Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?")
20. (If respondent is a registered voter.) One more question about the governor's race between O'Malley and Ehrlich: will one reason for your vote for governor be to express (support for) Obama, to express (opposition to) Obama, or is Obama not a factor in your choice?
Support Opposition Not a factor No opinion
9/26/10 RV 17 11 70 3
9/26/10 LV 16 12 70 2 Compare to George W. Bush: Was one reason for your vote for governor/Will one reason for your vote for governor be to express (support for) Bush, to express (opposition to) Bush, or is Bush not a factor in your choice?"
Support Opposition Not a factor No opinion 10/26/06 LV 5 19 75 *
21. (If respondent is a registered voter.) I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which one best describes how you feel about the way the federal government works. Do you feel enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry?
---------- Positive ---------- -------- Negative --------
NET Enthusiastic Satisfied NET Dissatisfied Angry No opinion
9/26/10 RV 38 4 35 59 42 18 2
5/6/10 RV 45 5 40 53 38 15 2 Compare to national:
---------- Positive ---------- -------- Negative --------
NET Enthusiastic Satisfied NET Dissatisfied Angry Other/None No opinion
9/2/10 RV 22 3 19 78 52 26 NA * 