Washington Post Virginia Governor's Race Poll

This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone October 4-7, 2009, among a random sample of 1,001 likely voters in the Commonwealth of Virginia including users of both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

*= less than 0.5 percent

McDonnell Widens Lead in Virginia Governor's Race (Oct. 8, 2009)

1. (IF REGISTERED VOTER) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the governor's election: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

                Certain   Probably  Chances  Less than  Don't think    Already    No 
                to Vote    vote      50/50    50/50    will vote(vol.)  Voted   opinion
10/7/09  LV       100         0         0        0            0           *        0
10/7/09  RV        53        20        15        9            3           *        1
9/17/09  LV       100         0         0        0            0                    0
9/17/09  RV        53        19        16        9            3                    1
8/14/09  RV        61        16        13        7            2                    *
10/26/05 LV       100         0         0        0            0                    0 
9/9/05   LV       100         0         0        0            0                    0 
9/9/05   RV        68        18         9        4            1                    0 
10/25/01 RV        63        19        10        5            2                    1
8/23/01  RV        68        16        10        5            1                    *
8/27/00  RV        76        14         7        2            1                    *

2. Would you say you are following this year's governor's race in the state of Virginia very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?

                ------Closely------    -----Not closely-----    
                NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too  At all  No opinion
10/7/09  LV     87     33      54      13       11       2         * 
9/17/09  LV     84     34      51      15       12       4         *
8/14/09  LV     67     25      42      32       23       9         1
8/14/09  RV     48     17      32      51       30      21         *
10/26/05 LV     87     31      56      13       10       2         *
9/9/05   LV     73     20      53      27       20       7         * 
9/9/05   RV     59     15      44      41       26      15         *    
8/23/01  RV     60     16      44      39       26      13         1
8/27/00  RV     61     21      40      38       25      13         *
6/23/94  RV     74     27      47      27       18       9         *
2/3/94          73     27      46      27       18       9         *
9/93     RV     68     21      47      31       21      10         *
 

3. If the election were being held today and the candidates were (Creigh Deeds, the Democrat) and (Bob McDonnell, the Republican), for whom would you vote? (ASKED IF ALREADY VOTED) For whom did you vote for governor?

Net Leaned Vote:                Other     Wouldn't       No
             Deeds  McDonnell   (vol.)   vote (vol.)   opinion  
10/7/09 LV    44        53        1          *            2 
9/17/09 LV    47        51        *          0            2
8/14/09 LV    39        54        1          *            7
8/14/09 RV    40        47        1          3            9  
 

4. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE) in November, or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind or would you say it's pretty unlikely?

 
Deeds:                            --------Change mind--------
                Definitely vote   NET  Good chance   Unlikely     No opinion
10/7/09 LV           76           21        6           15              3
9/17/09 LV           72           26       10           16              2
8/14/09 LV           62           33       12           21              5
8/14/09 RV           61           35       15           20              4

McDonnell:                        --------Change mind--------
                Definitely vote   NET  Good chance   Unlikely     No opinion
10/7/09 LV           78           21        5           15              1
9/17/09 LV           69           28        7           21              3
8/14/09 LV           59           38       18           21              3
8/14/09 RV           50           46       21           26              4

5. Thinking about his candidacy for governor so far, how enthusiastic are you about (CANDIDATE) -- very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?

Among Leaned Deeds/McDonnell Supporters:

              ---Enthusiastic----    --Not enthusiastic---    
              NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too  At all   No opinion
a. Deeds      79     20      59      20       16       4         *
b. McDonnell  85     35      51      14       12       2         *

Trend:

a. Deeds      ---Enthusiastic----    --Not enthusiastic---    
              NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too  At all   No opinion
10/7/09 LV    79     20      59      20       16       4         *
9/17/09 LV    82     22      60      17       14       3         1
8/14/09 LV    79     16      63      19       15       4         2
8/14/09 RV    67     12      56      31       22       8         2

b. McDonnell  ---Enthusiastic----    --Not enthusiastic---    
              NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too  At all   No opinion
10/7/09 LV    85     35      51      14       12       2         *
9/17/09 LV    89     36      53      10        9       1         *
8/14/09 LV    79     26      53      18       15       3         3
8/14/09 RV    68     20      48      29       20       9         3

6. Do you think (NAME) views on most issues are (too liberal for you), (too conservative for you), or just about right?

                   Too         Too        Just about     No
                 liberal   conservative      right     opinion 
a. Deeds's         44            7            42          8
b. McDonnell's      6           37            51          6

Trend data:

a. Deeds's
               Too         Too        Just about     No
             liberal   conservative      right     opinion 
10/7/09 LV     44            7            42          8 
9/17/09 LV     42            6            47          5
8/14/09 LV     39            7            37         18
8/14/09 RV     32            7            39         22    

b. McDonnell's
               Too         Too        Just about     No
             liberal   conservative      right     opinion 
10/7/09 LV      6           37            51          6
9/17/09 LV      7           40            47          5
8/14/09 LV      6           30            46         18
8/14/09 RV      9           27            38         26


Compare to:

Jerry Kilgore's:
                Too           Too          Just about     Don't know       No
              liberal     conservative       right        enough yet*    opinion
10/26/05 LV      8             38              49              NA           5
9/9/05   LV      8             31              47              12           3
9/9/05   RV      8             26              43              19           4

Tim Kaine's:
                Too           Too          Just about     Don't know       No
              liberal     conservative       right        enough yet*    opinion
10/26/05 LV     40              6              49              NA           5
9/9/05   LV     31              7              45              13           3
9/9/05   RV     27              7              41              22           4       
*"Don't know enough yet" respondents are those who said they knew "nothing at all"
or "don't know" about the candidate's qualifications to be governor. They were not
asked this question, but are shown as part of the base.

7. Regardless of how you [may vote/voted], whom do you trust to do a better job handling [ITEM] - (Deeds) or (McDonnell)?

Among likely voters:                                       Both     Neither  
                                      Deeds   McDonnell   (vol.)    (vol.)   No opinion
a. Issues of special concern to women  47         41        2         3           8
b. The economy and jobs                39         53        1         4           3
c. Transportation issues               37         49        2         4           7
d. The abortion issue                  44         42        1         4           9
e. The state budget                    36         52        2         4           5
f. Education                           40         51        2         2           4
g. Gun control                         35         49        2         5           9
h. Health care                         42         44        2         6           6
i. Taxes                               36         51        1         5           5
*Full sample asked items a-c; half sample asked items d-f; other half sample asked items g-i.

Trend data:

a. Issues of special concern to women
                                  Both     Neither  
             Deeds   McDonnell   (vol.)    (vol.)   No opinion
10/7/09 LV    47         41        2         3           8
9/17/09 LV    48         38        2         3           9

b. The economy and jobs
                                  Both     Neither  
             Deeds   McDonnell   (vol.)    (vol.)   No opinion
10/7/09 LV    39         53        1         4           3
9/17/09 LV    43         48        1         4           3
8/14/09 LV    35         50        2         4           9
8/14/09 RV    38         40        2         4          15

c. Transportation issues
                                  Both     Neither  
             Deeds   McDonnell   (vol.)    (vol.)   No opinion
10/7/09 LV    37         49        2         4           7
9/17/09 LV    38         46        3         3          10
8/14/09 LV    31         43        3         6          17
8/14/09 RV    35         34        3         6          22

d. The abortion issue
                                  Both     Neither  
             Deeds   McDonnell   (vol.)    (vol.)   No opinion
10/7/09 LV    44         42        1         4           9
9/17/09 LV    44         42        2         4           8
8/14/09 LV    34         39        2         6          20
8/14/09 RV    34         34        1         6          24

e. The state budget
                                  Both     Neither  
             Deeds   McDonnell   (vol.)    (vol.)   No opinion
10/7/09 LV    36         52        2         4           5
9/17/09 LV    40         49        2         2           7

f. Education
                                  Both     Neither  
             Deeds   McDonnell   (vol.)    (vol.)   No opinion
10/7/09 LV    40         51        2         2           4
9/17/09 LV    47         43        3         2           5

g. Gun control
                                  Both     Neither  
             Deeds   McDonnell   (vol.)    (vol.)   No opinion
10/7/09 LV    35         49        2         5           9
9/17/09 LV    36         47        2         4          11
8/14/09 LV    27         48        3         5          17
8/14/09 RV    31         38        3         5          22

h. Health care
                                  Both     Neither  
             Deeds   McDonnell   (vol.)    (vol.)   No opinion
10/7/09 LV    42         44        2         6           6
9/17/09 LV    47         43        2         5           4

i. Taxes
                                  Both     Neither  
             Deeds   McDonnell   (vol.)    (vol.)   No opinion
10/7/09 LV    36         51        1         5           5
9/17/09 LV    39         50        2         4           5
8/14/09 LV    31         50        2         4          12
8/14/09 RV    35         42        2         5          16

8. Which candidate has offered the better new ideas during the campaign: (Deeds) or (McDonnell), or don't you think either candidate has offered new ideas?

             Deeds  McDonnell  Neither  Both (vol.)  No opinion
10/7/09 LV    16       26        51         3             3
Compare to: Which candidate has offered the best new ideas during the campaign: (Jerry Kilgore) or (Tim Kaine), or don't you think either candidate has offered new ideas?
              Kilgore   Kaine   Neither   No opinion
10/26/05 LV     16       22       58           4

9. As it stands now, how much do you know about (CANDIDATE) and his qualifications to be governor: Do you know a lot about (CANDIDATE), a fair amount, just a little, or nothing at all?

Deeds:        ---Lot/Fair Amount---   ------Little/None-------
                      A      A fair          Just a    Nothing      No
              NET    lot     amount   NET    little     at all    opinion
10/7/09 LV    67     13        55     32       28          5         * 
8/14/09 RV    37      6        31     62       39         23         *

McDonnell:    ---Lot/Fair Amount---   ------Little/None-------
                      A      A fair          Just a    Nothing      No
              NET    lot     amount   NET    little     at all    opinion
10/7/09 LV    73     16        56     27       23          4         *
8/14/09 RV    37      7        30     62       38         25         *

10. Please tell me how important the following state issues [are/were] in deciding how [you'll vote/you voted] for governor this year. How about (INSERT ITEM)? Is that very important in deciding how [you'll vote/you voted], fairly important, not too important, or not important at all?

Among likely voters:          -----Important-----   ----Not Important----    No
                              NET   Very   Fairly   NET   Not too  At all  opinion  
a. Transportation and roads   85     45      40     15       12       3       *
b. Job creation               93     66      27      7        5       2       *
c. Health care                89     66      23     11        8       3       *
d. Education                  91     64      27      9        7       2       0
e. Taxes                      91     61      30      9        7       2       *
f. McDonnell's graduate 
   school thesis              31     15      17     64       23      41       4
g. Endorsements of the
   candidates by Virginia
   political leaders          31     12      20     67       28      39       2
h. Endorsements of the
   candidates by national
   political leaders          29     10      19     70       27      43       1
*Full sample asked items a-f; half sample asked item g; other half sample asked item h.

Trends (no trend available for health care, thesis, endorsements):

a. Transportation and roads

                -----Important-----    ----Not important----    No
                NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too  At all  opinion
10/7/09  LV     85     45      40      15       12       3       *

Compare to:
                -----Important-----    ----Not important----    No
                NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too  At all  opinion
10/26/05 LV     89     54      35      11       10       1       *
9/9/05   LV     90     58      32      10        8       2       *
9/9/05   RV     89     60      30      10        9       2       *

b. Job creation

                -----Important-----    ----Not important----    No
                NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too  At all  opinion
10/7/09  LV     93     66      27       7        5       2       *

Compare to:
                -----Important-----    ----Not important----    No
                NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too  At all  opinion
10/26/05 LV     91     60      31       9        8       1       *
9/9/05   LV     92     62      30       7        5       2       *
9/9/05   RV     92     64      29       7        6       1       * 

d. Education
                -----Important-----    ----Not important----    No
                NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too  At all  opinion
10/7/09  LV     91     64      27       9        7       2       0

Compare to:

Public education
                -----Important-----    ----Not important----    No
                NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too  At all  opinion
10/26/05 LV     95     73      23       5        4       1       0
9/9/05   LV     95     75      20       5        3       2       0
9/9/05   RV     95     76      19       5        3       1       *      

e. Taxes
                -----Important-----    ----Not important----    No
                NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too  At all  opinion
10/7/09  LV     91     61      30       9        7       2       *

Compare to:
                -----Important-----    ----Not important----    No
                NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too  At all  opinion
10/26/05 LV     92     58      34       8        6       2       *

11. Based on what you know or have heard, do you think (NAME) has been conducting mainly a positive campaign, or mainly a negative campaign?

Among likely voters:
               Positive   Negative   No opinion
a. Deeds          37         56           7 
b. McDonnell      60         32           8

Trend:

a. Deeds       Positive   Negative   No opinion
10/7/09  LV       37         56           7

Compare to:

Tim Kaine      Positive   Negative   No opinion
10/26/05 LV       57         40           3

Mark Warner    Positive   Negative   No opinion
10/25/01 LV       68         27           5


b. McDonnell   Positive   Negative   No opinion
10/7/09  LV       60         32           8

Compare to:

Jerry Kilgore  Positive   Negative   No opinion
10/26/05 LV       29         67           4

Mark Earley    Positive   Negative   No opinion
10/25/01 LV       39         53           8

11a. (IF BOTH DEEDS AND MCDONNELL ARE NEGATIVE) Overall, who is running the more negative campaign, (Deeds) or (McDonnell)?

             Deeds   McDonnell   No opinion
10/7/09 LV    46         30          25

NET Summary
             Deeds   McDonnell   Neither   Other   No opinion
10/7/09 LV    44         18        22        4         11

Compare to:

(IF BOTH KILGORE AND KAINE ARE NEGATIVE) Overall, who is running the more negative
campaign, (Kilgore) or (Kaine)?

              Kilgore   Kaine   No opinion
10/26/05 LV     53        30        17

11/11a NET Summary
              Kilgore     Kaine     Neither     Other     No opin.
10/26/05 LV     53          19        19          1           8

12. There's been news recently about a report McDonnell wrote as a 34-year-old graduate student in 1989 expressing his views on some social issues and the role of government. How much if anything have you heard about this -- a great deal, a good amount, just some or hardly anything?

              -Great deal/Good amount-   --- Some/Hardly any/None ---
                      Great     Good           Just   Hardly    None      No
              NET     deal     amount    NET   some    any     (vol.)   opinion
10/7/09 LV    55       28        27      45     22      21        2        *
9/17/09 LV    46       24        21      54     20      28        6        *

13. On another topic, as you may know, the candidates in November's election for LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR include (Jody Wagner, the Democrat) and (Bill Bolling, the Republican). If that election were being held today would you vote for (Wagner, the Democrat) or (Bolling, the Republican)? (ASKED IF ALREADY VOTED) For whom did you vote?

Net leaned vote:                Other     Wouldn't       No
             Wagner   Bolling   (vol.)   vote (vol.)   opinion  
10/7/09 LV     40       49        0          1           10 

14. On another topic, as you may know, the candidates in November's election for ATTORNEY GENERAL include (Stephen Shannon, the Democrat) and (Ken Cuccinelli, the Republican). If that election were being held today would you vote for or (Shannon, the Democrat) or (Cuccinelli, the Republican)? (ASKED IF ALREADY VOTED) For whom did you vote?

Net leaned vote:                    Other     Wouldn't       No
             Shannon   Cuccinelli   (vol.)   vote (vol.)   opinion  
10/7/09 LV      40         49         *          1            9 

15. Regardless of how you [may vote/voted], do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [NAME].

Among likely voters:                    
                     Favorable   Unfavorable   No opinion
a. Jody Wagner          45           15            40
b. Bill Bolling         51           15            34
c. Stephen Shannon      41           14            45
d. Ken Cuccinelli       51           16            33

16. Changing topics, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tim Kaine is handling his job as governor? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?

              -------- Approve --------   ------- Disapprove ------     No
              NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opinion
10/7/09  LV   60       25         36      37       19         19         2
9/17/09  LV   59       27         33      38       17         22         2
8/14/09  LV   51       22         29      45       20         25         4
8/14/09  RV   55       23         32      38       18         20         7 
8/14/09  All  56       21         34      36       18         18         8
9/21/08  RV   66                          25                             9
10/8/07  LV   66                          27                             7
10/8/07  All  63                          25                            12
10/12/06 LV   77                          19                             4

17. On another subject, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?

             -------- Approve --------   ------- Disapprove ------     No   
             NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opinion
10/7/09 LV   53       36         17      46        10        36         2
10/7/09 RV   58       37         21      39        11        28         3
9/17/09 LV   53       38         15      47        11        36         1
8/14/09 LV   47       32         15      51        10        41         2
8/14/09 RV   57       39         17      41        11        31         2

18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Nancy Pelosi is handling her job as Speaker of the House?

             Approve   Disapprove   No opinion
10/7/09 LV     38          58            4

19. On another subject, would you favor or oppose an increase in state taxes to pay for new road and transit projects?

             Favor   Oppose   No opinion
10/7/09 LV    42       55          3
8/14/09 LV    46       51          2
8/14/09       41       56          3

20. On another subject, do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?

                ------ Legal ------   ----- Illegal -----
                       All    Most          Most     All      No
                NET   cases   cases   NET   cases   cases   opinion
10/7/09  LV     59     24      35     38     27      11        3
9/17/09  LV     58     19      40     39     27      12        3
8/14/09  LV     54     18      37     41     27      14        4
8/14/09  RV     55     17      38     41     26      15        4
8/14/09  All    55     18      37     42     26      16        3
9/21/08  RV     60     22      38     38     25      12        3
6/3/07   RV     56     19      38     39     25      14        5
6/3/07   All    55     18      37     40     25      15        4 
10/26/05 LV     61     21      39     38     28      10        2
9/9/05   LV     54     21      33     43     29      14        2
9/9/05   RV     55     21      35     43     28      15        2  
10/25/01 LV     57     21      36     39     28      11        4
8/23/01  RV     57     21      37     39     27      12        3
10/26/00 LV     58     18      40     38     27      12        4
8/27/00  LV     57     16      40     38     26      12        5
8/27/00  RV     57     18      39     38     26      12        5

21. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or what? IF NOT DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN: Do you lean more towards the (Democratic Party) or (Republican Party)?

                                                                   --Non-Partisans--
                                                                   Lean   Lean   No
             Democrat  Republican  Independent  Other  No opinion  Dem.   Rep.  Lean
10/7/09  LV     31         30          36         2         1      13     20      6
9/17/09  LV     32         29          34         5         *      12     19      8 
9/17/09  RV     34         27          32         5         1      12     15     11 
9/17/09         33         25          33         7         2      12     14     16 
8/14/09  LV     27         34          34         4         1      11     20      8 
8/14/09  RV     31         29          35         4         1      13     17      9 
8/14/09         31         28          37         3         1      15     16     11 
10/25/08 LV     36         28          33         4         *      15     14      8 
10/25/08 RV     36         28          33         4         *      15     13      9 
10/25/08        35         26          31         6         1      14     12     12 
9/21/08  LV     33         28          34         5         1      15     16      8
9/21/08  RV     34         25          35         6         1      15     16     10
9/21/08         33         24          34         7         2      15     15     13
10/8/07  RV     32         29          34         4         1      15     13     11
10/8/07         30         27          38         4         1      18     13     11
6/3/07   RV     33         29          29         4         4      12     11     14
6/3/07          34         27          28         4         6      12     12     16
10/12/06 LV     33         32          32         3         *      14     12      9
10/26/05 LV     33         37          26         3         1      13     10      6
9/9/05   LV     34         37          25         4         *      12     13      5
9/9/05   RV     32         34          29         4         *      13     13      7
10/25/01 LV     31         37          26         5         1      10     12     10
8/23/01  LV     35         38          24         3         *      12     11      4
8/23/01  RV     32         33          29         5         1      15     12      8
10/26/00 LV     33         32          28         6         1      11     13     10
8/27/00  LV     30         36          29         5         1      11     13     10
8/27/00  RV     29         34          32         5         1      12     14     11
10/21/97 LV     31         32          31         5         1      12     14     11
9/16/97  LV     30         31          33         4         1      13     14     11
9/16/97  RV     28         31          35         4         1      14     14     17
6/23/94         29         29          32         8         2      12     15     18
9/28/93  RV     30         30          35         4         1      13     12     10
11/2/89  LV     33         32          31         3         1      NA     NA     NA

22. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Would you say your views on most political matters are liberal, moderate, or conservative?

                                                     Don't think in      
            Liberal    Moderate    Conservative    those terms (vol.)   No opinion
10/7/09  LV    20         41            38                  *                *
9/17/09  LV    20         44            36                  *                1
8/14/09  LV    20         37            41                  1                1
8/14/09  RV    21         42            35                  1                1
8/14/09        22         43            34                  1                1
10/25/08 LV    19         45            32                  2                2
10/25/08 RV    19         45            32                  2                2
9/21/08  LV    21         46            30                  2                1
9/21/08  RV    22         47            29                  2                1

23. Aside from weddings and funerals, how often do you attend religious services: more than once a week, once a week, once or twice a month, a few times a year, seldom or never?

              ------- Weekly ---------
                                        Once or twice  A few times  
              NET   >1/week   Once/week   per month      a year    Seldom   Never   No op.
10/7/09  LV   43      16         28          17            21        12        7      *
9/17/09  LV   44      16         28          18            18        11        9      *
8/14/09  LV   43      15         27          20            18        10        9      *
8/14/09  RV   39      14         25          21            20        11        9      *
8/14/09       37      13         24          20            19        12       11      *
10/25/08 LV   41      14         27          16            20        15        8      *
10/25/08 RV   40      13         26          17            20        15        8      *

24. Which of the following CATEGORIES best describes your total annual household income before taxes, from all sources?

             -------Less than $50k-------   --------More than $50k--------
             NET   <20k   20-35k   35-50k   NET   50-75k   75-100k   100k+
10/7/09  LV  29      6       8       14     70      18        17       35
9/17/09  LV  30      8       9       13     69      18        18       33
8/14/09  LV  26      6       7       13     72      22        16       33
8/14/09  RV  36      9      11       15     62      20        15       27
8/14/09      42     14      12       16     56      18        14       24
10/25/08 LV  36      9      11       16     62      19        14       28
10/25/08 RV  37     10      11       16     61      19        14       27
9/21/08  LV  31      7       8       15     68      19        18       31
9/21/08  RV  36     11       9       16     62      17        17       27
9/21/08      40     13      11       16     58      19        14       25

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