Washington Post Virginia Governor's Race Poll
This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone October 4-7, 2009, among a random sample of 1,001 likely voters in the Commonwealth of Virginia including users of both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
*= less than 0.5 percent
McDonnell Widens Lead in Virginia Governor's Race (Oct. 8, 2009)
1. (IF REGISTERED VOTER) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the governor's election: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?
Certain Probably Chances Less than Don't think Already No
to Vote vote 50/50 50/50 will vote(vol.) Voted opinion
10/7/09 LV 100 0 0 0 0 * 0
10/7/09 RV 53 20 15 9 3 * 1
9/17/09 LV 100 0 0 0 0 0
9/17/09 RV 53 19 16 9 3 1
8/14/09 RV 61 16 13 7 2 *
10/26/05 LV 100 0 0 0 0 0
9/9/05 LV 100 0 0 0 0 0
9/9/05 RV 68 18 9 4 1 0
10/25/01 RV 63 19 10 5 2 1
8/23/01 RV 68 16 10 5 1 *
8/27/00 RV 76 14 7 2 1 *
2. Would you say you are following this year's governor's race in the state of Virginia very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?
------Closely------ -----Not closely-----
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all No opinion
10/7/09 LV 87 33 54 13 11 2 *
9/17/09 LV 84 34 51 15 12 4 *
8/14/09 LV 67 25 42 32 23 9 1
8/14/09 RV 48 17 32 51 30 21 *
10/26/05 LV 87 31 56 13 10 2 *
9/9/05 LV 73 20 53 27 20 7 *
9/9/05 RV 59 15 44 41 26 15 *
8/23/01 RV 60 16 44 39 26 13 1
8/27/00 RV 61 21 40 38 25 13 *
6/23/94 RV 74 27 47 27 18 9 *
2/3/94 73 27 46 27 18 9 *
9/93 RV 68 21 47 31 21 10 *
3. If the election were being held today and the candidates were (Creigh Deeds, the Democrat) and (Bob McDonnell, the Republican), for whom would you vote? (ASKED IF ALREADY VOTED) For whom did you vote for governor?
Net Leaned Vote: Other Wouldn't No
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) vote (vol.) opinion
10/7/09 LV 44 53 1 * 2
9/17/09 LV 47 51 * 0 2
8/14/09 LV 39 54 1 * 7
8/14/09 RV 40 47 1 3 9
4. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE) in November, or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
Deeds: --------Change mind--------
Definitely vote NET Good chance Unlikely No opinion
10/7/09 LV 76 21 6 15 3
9/17/09 LV 72 26 10 16 2
8/14/09 LV 62 33 12 21 5
8/14/09 RV 61 35 15 20 4
McDonnell: --------Change mind--------
Definitely vote NET Good chance Unlikely No opinion
10/7/09 LV 78 21 5 15 1
9/17/09 LV 69 28 7 21 3
8/14/09 LV 59 38 18 21 3
8/14/09 RV 50 46 21 26 4
5. Thinking about his candidacy for governor so far, how enthusiastic are you about (CANDIDATE) -- very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
Among Leaned Deeds/McDonnell Supporters:
---Enthusiastic---- --Not enthusiastic---
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all No opinion
a. Deeds 79 20 59 20 16 4 *
b. McDonnell 85 35 51 14 12 2 *
Trend:
a. Deeds ---Enthusiastic---- --Not enthusiastic---
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all No opinion
10/7/09 LV 79 20 59 20 16 4 *
9/17/09 LV 82 22 60 17 14 3 1
8/14/09 LV 79 16 63 19 15 4 2
8/14/09 RV 67 12 56 31 22 8 2
b. McDonnell ---Enthusiastic---- --Not enthusiastic---
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all No opinion
10/7/09 LV 85 35 51 14 12 2 *
9/17/09 LV 89 36 53 10 9 1 *
8/14/09 LV 79 26 53 18 15 3 3
8/14/09 RV 68 20 48 29 20 9 3
6. Do you think (NAME) views on most issues are (too liberal for you), (too conservative for you), or just about right?
Too Too Just about No
liberal conservative right opinion
a. Deeds's 44 7 42 8
b. McDonnell's 6 37 51 6
Trend data:
a. Deeds's
Too Too Just about No
liberal conservative right opinion
10/7/09 LV 44 7 42 8
9/17/09 LV 42 6 47 5
8/14/09 LV 39 7 37 18
8/14/09 RV 32 7 39 22
b. McDonnell's
Too Too Just about No
liberal conservative right opinion
10/7/09 LV 6 37 51 6
9/17/09 LV 7 40 47 5
8/14/09 LV 6 30 46 18
8/14/09 RV 9 27 38 26
Compare to:
Jerry Kilgore's:
Too Too Just about Don't know No
liberal conservative right enough yet* opinion
10/26/05 LV 8 38 49 NA 5
9/9/05 LV 8 31 47 12 3
9/9/05 RV 8 26 43 19 4
Tim Kaine's:
Too Too Just about Don't know No
liberal conservative right enough yet* opinion
10/26/05 LV 40 6 49 NA 5
9/9/05 LV 31 7 45 13 3
9/9/05 RV 27 7 41 22 4
*"Don't know enough yet" respondents are those who said they knew "nothing at all"
or "don't know" about the candidate's qualifications to be governor. They were not
asked this question, but are shown as part of the base.
7. Regardless of how you [may vote/voted], whom do you trust to do a better job handling [ITEM] - (Deeds) or (McDonnell)?
Among likely voters: Both Neither
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) (vol.) No opinion
a. Issues of special concern to women 47 41 2 3 8
b. The economy and jobs 39 53 1 4 3
c. Transportation issues 37 49 2 4 7
d. The abortion issue 44 42 1 4 9
e. The state budget 36 52 2 4 5
f. Education 40 51 2 2 4
g. Gun control 35 49 2 5 9
h. Health care 42 44 2 6 6
i. Taxes 36 51 1 5 5
*Full sample asked items a-c; half sample asked items d-f; other half sample asked items g-i.
Trend data:
a. Issues of special concern to women
Both Neither
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) (vol.) No opinion
10/7/09 LV 47 41 2 3 8
9/17/09 LV 48 38 2 3 9
b. The economy and jobs
Both Neither
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) (vol.) No opinion
10/7/09 LV 39 53 1 4 3
9/17/09 LV 43 48 1 4 3
8/14/09 LV 35 50 2 4 9
8/14/09 RV 38 40 2 4 15
c. Transportation issues
Both Neither
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) (vol.) No opinion
10/7/09 LV 37 49 2 4 7
9/17/09 LV 38 46 3 3 10
8/14/09 LV 31 43 3 6 17
8/14/09 RV 35 34 3 6 22
d. The abortion issue
Both Neither
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) (vol.) No opinion
10/7/09 LV 44 42 1 4 9
9/17/09 LV 44 42 2 4 8
8/14/09 LV 34 39 2 6 20
8/14/09 RV 34 34 1 6 24
e. The state budget
Both Neither
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) (vol.) No opinion
10/7/09 LV 36 52 2 4 5
9/17/09 LV 40 49 2 2 7
f. Education
Both Neither
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) (vol.) No opinion
10/7/09 LV 40 51 2 2 4
9/17/09 LV 47 43 3 2 5
g. Gun control
Both Neither
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) (vol.) No opinion
10/7/09 LV 35 49 2 5 9
9/17/09 LV 36 47 2 4 11
8/14/09 LV 27 48 3 5 17
8/14/09 RV 31 38 3 5 22
h. Health care
Both Neither
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) (vol.) No opinion
10/7/09 LV 42 44 2 6 6
9/17/09 LV 47 43 2 5 4
i. Taxes
Both Neither
Deeds McDonnell (vol.) (vol.) No opinion
10/7/09 LV 36 51 1 5 5
9/17/09 LV 39 50 2 4 5
8/14/09 LV 31 50 2 4 12
8/14/09 RV 35 42 2 5 16
8. Which candidate has offered the better new ideas during the campaign: (Deeds) or (McDonnell), or don't you think either candidate has offered new ideas?
Deeds McDonnell Neither Both (vol.) No opinion 10/7/09 LV 16 26 51 3 3Compare to: Which candidate has offered the best new ideas during the campaign: (Jerry Kilgore) or (Tim Kaine), or don't you think either candidate has offered new ideas?
Kilgore Kaine Neither No opinion 10/26/05 LV 16 22 58 4
9. As it stands now, how much do you know about (CANDIDATE) and his qualifications to be governor: Do you know a lot about (CANDIDATE), a fair amount, just a little, or nothing at all?
Deeds: ---Lot/Fair Amount--- ------Little/None-------
A A fair Just a Nothing No
NET lot amount NET little at all opinion
10/7/09 LV 67 13 55 32 28 5 *
8/14/09 RV 37 6 31 62 39 23 *
McDonnell: ---Lot/Fair Amount--- ------Little/None-------
A A fair Just a Nothing No
NET lot amount NET little at all opinion
10/7/09 LV 73 16 56 27 23 4 *
8/14/09 RV 37 7 30 62 38 25 *
10. Please tell me how important the following state issues [are/were] in deciding how [you'll vote/you voted] for governor this year. How about (INSERT ITEM)? Is that very important in deciding how [you'll vote/you voted], fairly important, not too important, or not important at all?
Among likely voters: -----Important----- ----Not Important---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all opinion
a. Transportation and roads 85 45 40 15 12 3 *
b. Job creation 93 66 27 7 5 2 *
c. Health care 89 66 23 11 8 3 *
d. Education 91 64 27 9 7 2 0
e. Taxes 91 61 30 9 7 2 *
f. McDonnell's graduate
school thesis 31 15 17 64 23 41 4
g. Endorsements of the
candidates by Virginia
political leaders 31 12 20 67 28 39 2
h. Endorsements of the
candidates by national
political leaders 29 10 19 70 27 43 1
*Full sample asked items a-f; half sample asked item g; other half sample asked item h.
Trends (no trend available for health care, thesis, endorsements):
a. Transportation and roads
-----Important----- ----Not important---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all opinion
10/7/09 LV 85 45 40 15 12 3 *
Compare to:
-----Important----- ----Not important---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all opinion
10/26/05 LV 89 54 35 11 10 1 *
9/9/05 LV 90 58 32 10 8 2 *
9/9/05 RV 89 60 30 10 9 2 *
b. Job creation
-----Important----- ----Not important---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all opinion
10/7/09 LV 93 66 27 7 5 2 *
Compare to:
-----Important----- ----Not important---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all opinion
10/26/05 LV 91 60 31 9 8 1 *
9/9/05 LV 92 62 30 7 5 2 *
9/9/05 RV 92 64 29 7 6 1 *
d. Education
-----Important----- ----Not important---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all opinion
10/7/09 LV 91 64 27 9 7 2 0
Compare to:
Public education
-----Important----- ----Not important---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all opinion
10/26/05 LV 95 73 23 5 4 1 0
9/9/05 LV 95 75 20 5 3 2 0
9/9/05 RV 95 76 19 5 3 1 *
e. Taxes
-----Important----- ----Not important---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all opinion
10/7/09 LV 91 61 30 9 7 2 *
Compare to:
-----Important----- ----Not important---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all opinion
10/26/05 LV 92 58 34 8 6 2 *
11. Based on what you know or have heard, do you think (NAME) has been conducting mainly a positive campaign, or mainly a negative campaign?
Among likely voters:
Positive Negative No opinion
a. Deeds 37 56 7
b. McDonnell 60 32 8
Trend:
a. Deeds Positive Negative No opinion
10/7/09 LV 37 56 7
Compare to:
Tim Kaine Positive Negative No opinion
10/26/05 LV 57 40 3
Mark Warner Positive Negative No opinion
10/25/01 LV 68 27 5
b. McDonnell Positive Negative No opinion
10/7/09 LV 60 32 8
Compare to:
Jerry Kilgore Positive Negative No opinion
10/26/05 LV 29 67 4
Mark Earley Positive Negative No opinion
10/25/01 LV 39 53 8
11a. (IF BOTH DEEDS AND MCDONNELL ARE NEGATIVE) Overall, who is running the more negative campaign, (Deeds) or (McDonnell)?
Deeds McDonnell No opinion
10/7/09 LV 46 30 25
NET Summary
Deeds McDonnell Neither Other No opinion
10/7/09 LV 44 18 22 4 11
Compare to:
(IF BOTH KILGORE AND KAINE ARE NEGATIVE) Overall, who is running the more negative
campaign, (Kilgore) or (Kaine)?
Kilgore Kaine No opinion
10/26/05 LV 53 30 17
11/11a NET Summary
Kilgore Kaine Neither Other No opin.
10/26/05 LV 53 19 19 1 8
12. There's been news recently about a report McDonnell wrote as a 34-year-old graduate student in 1989 expressing his views on some social issues and the role of government. How much if anything have you heard about this -- a great deal, a good amount, just some or hardly anything?
-Great deal/Good amount- --- Some/Hardly any/None ---
Great Good Just Hardly None No
NET deal amount NET some any (vol.) opinion
10/7/09 LV 55 28 27 45 22 21 2 *
9/17/09 LV 46 24 21 54 20 28 6 *
13. On another topic, as you may know, the candidates in November's election for LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR include (Jody Wagner, the Democrat) and (Bill Bolling, the Republican). If that election were being held today would you vote for (Wagner, the Democrat) or (Bolling, the Republican)? (ASKED IF ALREADY VOTED) For whom did you vote?
Net leaned vote: Other Wouldn't No
Wagner Bolling (vol.) vote (vol.) opinion
10/7/09 LV 40 49 0 1 10
14. On another topic, as you may know, the candidates in November's election for ATTORNEY GENERAL include (Stephen Shannon, the Democrat) and (Ken Cuccinelli, the Republican). If that election were being held today would you vote for or (Shannon, the Democrat) or (Cuccinelli, the Republican)? (ASKED IF ALREADY VOTED) For whom did you vote?
Net leaned vote: Other Wouldn't No
Shannon Cuccinelli (vol.) vote (vol.) opinion
10/7/09 LV 40 49 * 1 9
15. Regardless of how you [may vote/voted], do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [NAME].
Among likely voters:
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
a. Jody Wagner 45 15 40
b. Bill Bolling 51 15 34
c. Stephen Shannon 41 14 45
d. Ken Cuccinelli 51 16 33
16. Changing topics, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tim Kaine is handling his job as governor? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
10/7/09 LV 60 25 36 37 19 19 2
9/17/09 LV 59 27 33 38 17 22 2
8/14/09 LV 51 22 29 45 20 25 4
8/14/09 RV 55 23 32 38 18 20 7
8/14/09 All 56 21 34 36 18 18 8
9/21/08 RV 66 25 9
10/8/07 LV 66 27 7
10/8/07 All 63 25 12
10/12/06 LV 77 19 4
17. On another subject, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
10/7/09 LV 53 36 17 46 10 36 2
10/7/09 RV 58 37 21 39 11 28 3
9/17/09 LV 53 38 15 47 11 36 1
8/14/09 LV 47 32 15 51 10 41 2
8/14/09 RV 57 39 17 41 11 31 2
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Nancy Pelosi is handling her job as Speaker of the House?
Approve Disapprove No opinion 10/7/09 LV 38 58 4
19. On another subject, would you favor or oppose an increase in state taxes to pay for new road and transit projects?
Favor Oppose No opinion 10/7/09 LV 42 55 3 8/14/09 LV 46 51 2 8/14/09 41 56 3
20. On another subject, do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?
------ Legal ------ ----- Illegal -----
All Most Most All No
NET cases cases NET cases cases opinion
10/7/09 LV 59 24 35 38 27 11 3
9/17/09 LV 58 19 40 39 27 12 3
8/14/09 LV 54 18 37 41 27 14 4
8/14/09 RV 55 17 38 41 26 15 4
8/14/09 All 55 18 37 42 26 16 3
9/21/08 RV 60 22 38 38 25 12 3
6/3/07 RV 56 19 38 39 25 14 5
6/3/07 All 55 18 37 40 25 15 4
10/26/05 LV 61 21 39 38 28 10 2
9/9/05 LV 54 21 33 43 29 14 2
9/9/05 RV 55 21 35 43 28 15 2
10/25/01 LV 57 21 36 39 28 11 4
8/23/01 RV 57 21 37 39 27 12 3
10/26/00 LV 58 18 40 38 27 12 4
8/27/00 LV 57 16 40 38 26 12 5
8/27/00 RV 57 18 39 38 26 12 5
21. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or what? IF NOT DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN: Do you lean more towards the (Democratic Party) or (Republican Party)?
--Non-Partisans--
Lean Lean No
Democrat Republican Independent Other No opinion Dem. Rep. Lean
10/7/09 LV 31 30 36 2 1 13 20 6
9/17/09 LV 32 29 34 5 * 12 19 8
9/17/09 RV 34 27 32 5 1 12 15 11
9/17/09 33 25 33 7 2 12 14 16
8/14/09 LV 27 34 34 4 1 11 20 8
8/14/09 RV 31 29 35 4 1 13 17 9
8/14/09 31 28 37 3 1 15 16 11
10/25/08 LV 36 28 33 4 * 15 14 8
10/25/08 RV 36 28 33 4 * 15 13 9
10/25/08 35 26 31 6 1 14 12 12
9/21/08 LV 33 28 34 5 1 15 16 8
9/21/08 RV 34 25 35 6 1 15 16 10
9/21/08 33 24 34 7 2 15 15 13
10/8/07 RV 32 29 34 4 1 15 13 11
10/8/07 30 27 38 4 1 18 13 11
6/3/07 RV 33 29 29 4 4 12 11 14
6/3/07 34 27 28 4 6 12 12 16
10/12/06 LV 33 32 32 3 * 14 12 9
10/26/05 LV 33 37 26 3 1 13 10 6
9/9/05 LV 34 37 25 4 * 12 13 5
9/9/05 RV 32 34 29 4 * 13 13 7
10/25/01 LV 31 37 26 5 1 10 12 10
8/23/01 LV 35 38 24 3 * 12 11 4
8/23/01 RV 32 33 29 5 1 15 12 8
10/26/00 LV 33 32 28 6 1 11 13 10
8/27/00 LV 30 36 29 5 1 11 13 10
8/27/00 RV 29 34 32 5 1 12 14 11
10/21/97 LV 31 32 31 5 1 12 14 11
9/16/97 LV 30 31 33 4 1 13 14 11
9/16/97 RV 28 31 35 4 1 14 14 17
6/23/94 29 29 32 8 2 12 15 18
9/28/93 RV 30 30 35 4 1 13 12 10
11/2/89 LV 33 32 31 3 1 NA NA NA
22. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Would you say your views on most political matters are liberal, moderate, or conservative?
Don't think in
Liberal Moderate Conservative those terms (vol.) No opinion
10/7/09 LV 20 41 38 * *
9/17/09 LV 20 44 36 * 1
8/14/09 LV 20 37 41 1 1
8/14/09 RV 21 42 35 1 1
8/14/09 22 43 34 1 1
10/25/08 LV 19 45 32 2 2
10/25/08 RV 19 45 32 2 2
9/21/08 LV 21 46 30 2 1
9/21/08 RV 22 47 29 2 1
23. Aside from weddings and funerals, how often do you attend religious services: more than once a week, once a week, once or twice a month, a few times a year, seldom or never?
------- Weekly ---------
Once or twice A few times
NET >1/week Once/week per month a year Seldom Never No op.
10/7/09 LV 43 16 28 17 21 12 7 *
9/17/09 LV 44 16 28 18 18 11 9 *
8/14/09 LV 43 15 27 20 18 10 9 *
8/14/09 RV 39 14 25 21 20 11 9 *
8/14/09 37 13 24 20 19 12 11 *
10/25/08 LV 41 14 27 16 20 15 8 *
10/25/08 RV 40 13 26 17 20 15 8 *
24. Which of the following CATEGORIES best describes your total annual household income before taxes, from all sources?
-------Less than $50k------- --------More than $50k--------
NET <20k 20-35k 35-50k NET 50-75k 75-100k 100k+
10/7/09 LV 29 6 8 14 70 18 17 35
9/17/09 LV 30 8 9 13 69 18 18 33
8/14/09 LV 26 6 7 13 72 22 16 33
8/14/09 RV 36 9 11 15 62 20 15 27
8/14/09 42 14 12 16 56 18 14 24
10/25/08 LV 36 9 11 16 62 19 14 28
10/25/08 RV 37 10 11 16 61 19 14 27
9/21/08 LV 31 7 8 15 68 19 18 31
9/21/08 RV 36 11 9 16 62 17 17 27
9/21/08 40 13 11 16 58 19 14 25 