Washington Post News Poll

The Washington Post
Sunday, October 15, 2006 (Updated Oct. 18)

Post Analysis of This Poll: Articles and Graphics  |  Submit a Question to the Post's Bob Barnes About this Poll

This Washington Post poll is based on telephone interviews with 1,004 randomly selected Virginia likely voters, and was conducted Oct. 10 - 12, 2006. The margin of sampling error for results based on likely voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Sampling, data collection, and tabuation by TNS of Horsham, PA.

*= less than 0.5 percent

1. Are you registered to vote at your present address, or not?

                Yes    No   No opinion
10/12/06         78    22       * 
10/26/05         74    26       *
9/9/05           72    28       * 

2. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the election for U.S. Senate this November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

                Certain   Probably  Chances  Less than  Don't think     No 
                to Vote    vote      50/50    50/50    will vote(vol.) opin.
10/12/06 RV        67        17        10        4            1          1 
10/26/05 RV        61        19        13        4            2          1 
9/9/05   RV        68        18         9        4            1          0 
10/25/01 RV        63        19        10        5            2          1
8/23/01  RV        68        16        10        5            1          *
8/27/00  RV        76        14         7        2            1          *

3. Would you say you are following this year's U.S. Senate race in the state of Virginia very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?

                ------Closely------    -----Not closely-----    No
                NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too  At all   opin.
10/12/06 LV     90     52      38      10        8       2       *
10/26/05 LV     87     31      56      13       10       2       *
9/9/05   LV     73     20      53      27       20       7       * 
9/9/05   RV     59     15      44      41       26      15       *    
8/23/01  RV     60     16      44      39       26      13       1
8/27/00  RV     61     21      40      38       25      13       *
6/23/94  RV     74     27      47      27       18       9       *
2/3/94          73     27      46      27       18       9       *
9/28/93  RV     68     21      47      31       21      10       *
11/2/89  LV     88     39      49      12        9       3       *

4. As you may know, the candidates in November's election for U.S. Senate include: (George Allen, the Republican) and (James Webb, the Democrat) and Gail Parker, the Independent Green. Suppose the election was held today. For whom would you vote?

Net Leaned Vote:

                                      Other     None     No
              Allen   Webb   Parker   (vol.)   (vol.)   opin.
10/12/06 LV     49     47       2       0         *       2 

Compare to:

                                     Other     None    Wouldn't      No
             Kilgore  Kaine  Potts   (vol.)   (vol.)   vote (vol.)  opin.
10/26/05 LV     44       47      4      *        *          1          3 
9/9/05   RV     45       41      5      *        1          1          7 
9/9/05   LV     51       44      4      0        0          *          2

5. Will you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE) in November, or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? If "Chance change mind", ask: Is there a good chance you'll change your mind or would you say it's pretty unlikely?

Allen:

                                  --------Change mind--------
                Definitely vote   NET  Good chance   Unlikely     No opinion
10/12/06 LV          76           21        8           13              3

Webb:

                                  --------Change mind--------
                Definitely vote   NET  Good chance   Unlikely     No opinion
10/12/06 LV          75           22        8           14              3

6. Thinking about his candidacy for U.S. Senate so far, how enthusiastic are you about (CANDIDATE)- very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?

10/12/06 - Asked of Allen supporters:

                     ---Enthusiastic----    --Not enthusiastic---    No
                     NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too  At all   opin.
a. George Allen      90     43      47      9         7       2       1


10/12/06 - Asked of Webb supporters:

                     ---Enthusiastic----    --Not enthusiastic---    No
                     NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too  At all   opin.
b. James Webb        84     25      60      15       12       3       *

Compare to: 10/26/05 - Governor's race:

Jerry Kilgore        85     27      58      14       13       2       1
Tim Kaine            86     30      56      13       11       2       1

7. For each item I name, please tell me how important it will be in your vote for U.S. Senate this year.

10/12/06 - Summary Table, Likely Voters

                           ------Important-------   -----Not as important------   No   
                           NET   Extremely   Very   NET   Somewhat   Not at all   op.  
a. The U.S campaign     
   against terrorism       81       36        45    19       16           2        1
b. The situation in Iraq   86       41        45    13       12           1        *
c. Transportation issues   53       15        39    46       38           8        1
d. Same-sex marriage       47       22        25    52       22          31        *
e. The economy             77       26        51    23       20           3        *
f. Ethics in government    78       33        45    21       17           4        1
g. Immigration issues      59       23        36    41       34           7        *
h. Health care             67       27        40    33       29           4        0
i. Abortion                49       19        30    50       29          21        1 
j. Taxes                   68       22        46    31       24           7        *

Items a-d asked of full sample, e-g and h-j asked of half sample.

8. In deciding who to support for U.S. Senate, what would you say is more important to you - the candidates' (positions on the issues) or the candidates' (personal values), or would you say they're equally important?

                Positions     Personal     Equally       No
                on issues      values     important     opin.
10/12/06 LV         34            5           61          *

Compare to Post-ABC national:

                Positions     Personal     Equally       No
                on issues      values     important     opin.
10/8/06 All         31            5           64          *
10/8/06 LV          33            5           62          *

9. Do you think things in the state of Virginia (are generally going in the right direction) or do you feel things (have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track)?


                  Right       Wrong      No
                direction     track     opin.
10/12/06 LV        67           30        3
10/26/05 LV        70           25        5
9/9/05   RV        65           31        4 
8/23/01  RV        59           34        7
8/27/00  RV        71           22        7
6/23/94  RV        53           38        8
2/3/94             55           36        9

Compare to Post-ABC national:

                  Right       Wrong      No
                direction     track     opin.
10/8/06 All        32           66        2 
10/8/06 LV         34           64        2 

10. Do you think the campaign for U.S. Senate has been too negative, or not?

                Yes     No     No opinion
10/12/06 LV      64     34           2
10/21/97 LV      48     45           7
9/28/93  LV      50     45           4
10/89    LV      70     25           5
9/89     LV      53     41           6

11. (IF THINKS CAMPAIGN HAS BEEN TOO NEGATIVE) Who is most to blame for that, the (Allen campaign), the (Webb campaign) or something else?

                                             10/12/06 LV
Allen campaign                                    20
Webb campaign                                     17
(VOL) Both                                        32
(VOL) Media                                       15
(VOL) General state of politics                    5
(VOL) Democrats                                    1
(VOL) Republicans                                  1
(VOL) Negative campaigns work/are popular          1
Other                                              3
No Opinion                                         5

12. Amendment One on the November ballot would add to the state's Constitution a definition of marriage as being ONLY the union of one man and one woman.

It would also keep Virginia from creating or recognizing any legal status for relationships of unmarried persons that assign the rights, benefits, obligations, qualities or effects of marriage.

If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Amendment One?

                Yes     No     No opinion
10/12/06 LV      53     43           4

13. (Supporters say the measure would mean that same-sex marriages would never be approved or recognized in the Commonwealth of Virginia.) (Opponents say the proposed language is too broad, and would endanger contracts made between unmarried heterosexual couples.)

With these arguments in mind, if the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Amendment One?

                Yes     No     No opinion
10/12/06 LV      48     47           5

14. Do you think homosexual couples should or should not be allowed to form legally recognized civil unions, giving them the legal rights of married couples in areas such as health insurance, inheritance and pension coverage?

                Should     Should not     No opinion
10/12/06 LV       48           47               5

Compare to Post-ABC national:

          ---------Should--------   -------Should not------
          NET  Strongly  Somewhat   NET  Somewhat  Strongly   No op.
6/4/06    45      28        17      48       7        41        7
3/7/04    51      32        19      46       9        37        3
2/22/04   45      30        16      48       7        41        7
1/18/04   46      NA        NA      51      NA        NA        4
9/7/03    40      NA        NA      51      NA        NA        9

15. Generally speaking, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of:

10/12/06 - Summary Table, Likely Voters

                      Favorable    Unfavorable    No opin.
a. Mark Warner           73            20            7
b. George Allen          53            43            4
c. James Webb            53            37           10 
d. John Warner           66            25            9
e. Hillary Clinton       44            54            3
f. Tim Kaine             67            23           10

Items a-c asked of full sample, d-e and f asked of half sample.

Trend where available:

a. Mark Warner

               Favorable    Unfavorable    No opin.
10/12/06 LV       73            20             7
10/26/05 LV       75            19             6
9/9/05   RV       69            23             8          
10/25/01 LV       62            30             8         
8/23/01  RV       65            23            12         

b. George F. Allen

               Favorable    Unfavorable    No opin.
10/12/06 LV       53            43             4
9/9/05   LV       63            31             6
9/9/05   RV       58            28            14

f. Tim Kaine

               Favorable    Unfavorable    No opin.
10/12/06 LV       67            23            10
10/26/05 LV       58            33             8
9/9/05   RV       55            25            21          

16. For each of the following statements, please tell me whether it describes George Allen very well, fairly well, not too well, or not well at all.

10/12/06 - Summary Table, Likely Voters

                                     -------Well------  ------Not well------   No
                                     NET  Very  Fairly  NET  Not too  At all  opin.
a. He would stand up for issues 
   important to women                65    29     36    30      16      14      5
b. He would stand up for issues 
   important to African-Americans    56    25     31    39      22      17      5
c. He is tolerant of the points of 
   view of all Virginians            58    25     34    39      20      19      2
d. He understands the problems of 
   people like you                   56    28     28    41      19      23      3
e. He is a strong leader             68    35     33    30      15      15      1
d. He is honest and trustworthy      66    30     36    32      15      17      3
e. He has strong family values       83    48     35    14       7       7      3

Items a-c asked of full sample, d-e and f-g asked of half sample.

17. For each of the following statements, please tell me whether it describes James Webb very well, fairly well, not too well, or not well at all.

10/12/06 - Summary Table, Likely Voters

                                     -------Well------  ------Not well------   No
                                     NET  Very  Fairly  NET  Not too  At all  opin.
a. He would stand up for issues 
   important to women                62    21     40    29      17      12      9
b. He would stand up for issues 
   important to African-Americans    72    22     50    15      10       6     13
c. He is tolerant of the points of 
   view of all Virginians            68    22     46    24      16       9      8
d. He understands the problems of 
   people like you                   56    18     38    35      17      18      8
e. He is a strong leader             62    22     41    28      17      11      9
d. He is honest and trustworthy      66    22     44    25      17       9      8
e. He has strong family values       76    28     48    11       7       4     13

Items a-c asked of full sample, d-e and f-g asked of half sample.

18. Does James Webb's military service make you (more) likely to support him for the U.S. Senate, (less) likely, or doesn't it affect your vote one way or the other?

                 More       Less        Doesn't         No
                likely     likely     affect vote     opinion
10/12/06 LV       25          4            71            1

Compare to Post-ABC on John Kerry service in Vietnam:

                More       Less           Doesn't       No
               likely     likely          affect      opinion
9/8/04  RV       23         13              63           1
8/29/04 RV       24         14              61           1

Compare to Post-ABC George W. Bush's service in Texas National Guard:

                More       Less           Doesn't       No
               likely     likely          affect      opinion
9/8/04  RV        7         18              74           1
8/29/04 RV        7         22              70           1

19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?

             ---------Approve---------   --------Disapprove-------    No   
             NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opin.
10/12/06 LV  43       26         17      56       12         44        1
10/26/05 LV  44       NA         NA      55       NA         NA        2
9/9/05   LV  47       NA         NA      51       NA         NA        2
9/9/05   RV  47       NA         NA      51       NA         NA        2 

Compare to Post-ABC national:

             ---------Approve---------   --------Disapprove-------    No   
             NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opin.
10/8/06 All  39       23         16      60       12         48        1  
10/8/06 LV   41       28         13      58        9         49        1  

20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Allen is handling his job as U.S. Senator? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?

             ---------Approve---------   --------Disapprove-------    No   
             NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opin.
10/12/06 LV  57       33         23      41       20         21        2
9/9/05   RV  67       NA         NA      23       NA         NA       10

21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tim Kaine is handling his job as governor?

                Approve   Disapprove   No opinion
10/12/06 LV        77         19            4

Compare to:

Mark Warner

             ---------Approve---------   --------Disapprove------     No
             NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Strongly   Somewhat   opin.
10/26/05 LV  80       NA         NA      17       NA         NA        3
9/9/05 LV    78       NA         NA      21       NA         NA        1
9/9/05 RV    76       NA         NA      22       NA         NA        2  

Jim Gilmore

             ---------Approve---------    --------Disapprove------    No
             NET   Strongly   Somewhat    NET   Strongly   Somewhat  opin.
10/25/01 LV  62       25         37       33       18         16       5
8/23/01  RV  57       NA         NA       36       NA         NA       7
8/27/00  RV  70       25         45       20        8         12      10

George F. Allen

                 Approve   Disapprove   No opinion
10/21/97 LV        66         27            6
9/16/97  RV        67         26            7

22. Will one reason for your vote for U.S. Senate be to express (support for) Bush, to express (opposition to) Bush, or is Bush not a factor in your choice?

                Support    Opposition    Not a factor    No opinion
10/12/06 LV       12           25             63               *

Compare to Post-ABC national:

                Support    Opposition    Not a factor    No opinion
10/8/06  RV       18           35             47               1
10/8/06  LV       17           37             45               1

23. Changing topics: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Virginia state legislature is doing its job?

                Approve   Disapprove   No opinion
10/12/06 LV        52         42            6

Compare to Post-ABC approval of U.S. Congress:

                Approve   Disapprove   No opinion
10/8/2006 All      32         66            2
10/8/2006 LV       30         69            2

24. How satisfied are you with the state government when it comes to working for the best interests of people in your part of Virginia - very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied?

             ------Satisfied------   ----Dissatisfied-----    No
             NET   Very   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Very   opin.
10/12/06 LV  59     10       49      40       28       12      1

25. How important is it to you that the state government increase the amount it spends on transportation projects - extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not at all important?

                ------Important-------   -----Not as important------   No
                NET   Extremely   Very   NET   Somewhat   Not at all   op.
10/12/06 LV     55       26        29    45       38           7        *

26. As you may know, Governor Kaine called the state legislature into a special session on transportation, but they adjourned without reaching an agreement. Who do you blame the most for the failure to reach agreement - (Governor Kaine), (Republicans in the House of Delegates), (Republicans in the State Senate) or (Democrats in the State House and Senate)?

                                           10/12/06 LV
Governor Kaine                                  13
Republicans in the House of Delegates           19
Republicans in the State Senate                 18
Democrats in the State House and Senate         15
(VOL) All equally                               17
No opinion                                      17

27. Would you favor or oppose a transportation plan that would allow voters to approve local tax increases to fund road projects in their area?

                Favor     Oppose     No opin.
10/12/06 LV       69        30           1
10/26/05 LV       79        20           2

28. How would you most prefer that the state government increase the level of current funding for transportation projects - (reduce spending for other state services), (increase taxes on all Virginians), (increase user fees such as tolls), or some other way?

                                               10/12/06 LV
Reduce spending for other state services           23
Increase taxes on all Virginians                   17
Increase user fees such as tolls                   32
(VOL) Some combination of these                     2
(VOL) Gas tax                                       2
(VOL) Lottery funds                                 2
(VOL) Increase taxes on SOME Virginians             2
(VOL) Spend existing funds smarter/better           3
Some other way                                      5
No Opinion                                         11

29. On another subject: All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not?


                ----- Worth fighting ----     --- Not worth fighting --      No     
                NET   Strongly   Somewhat     NET   Somewhat   Strongly      op. 
10/12/06 LV     44       31         13        54        8         46          2 

Compare to Post-ABC national:

                ----- Worth fighting ----     --- Not worth fighting --      No     
                NET   Strongly   Somewhat     NET   Somewhat   Strongly      op. 
10/8/06 All     35       25         10        63       13         50          2
10/8/06 LV      38       29         10        60       10         50          2

30. As it conducts the war on terrorism, do you think the United States government is or is not doing enough to protect the rights of American citizens?

                                  Doing too       No
                Is     Is not     much (vol.)     opin.
10/12/06 LV     53       44             1           2

Compare to Post-ABC national:
                                   Doing too       No
                Is     Is not     much (vol.)     opin.
5/15/06 All     52       47             *           2

31. Do you think George Allen would make a good president, or not?

                Yes     No     No opinion
10/12/06 LV      35     56           9

32. Do you think Mark Warner would make a good president, or not?

               Yes     No     No opinion
10/12/06 LV      51     41           8

33. Generally speaking, do you think the growing numbers of immigrants from other countries has been (good) for your community, (bad) for your community, or hasn't it made much difference?

                                  No       (VOL)None      No
                Good     Bad     diff.     in commun.    opin.    
10/12/06 LV      25       32      40            *          2
10/26/05 LV      26       30      41            *          2
9/9/05   RV      21       33      44            1          1
8/23/01  RV      21       23      53            *          3

34. In its coverage of (NAME'S) Senate campaign, do you think the news media has treated (NAME) fairly or unfairly?

10/12/06 - Summary Table, Likely Voters

                    Fairly     Unfairly     No opinion
a. George Allen       58          36              5
b. James Webb         72          19             10

Each candidate was asked of half sample. 

35. As you may know, Allen's campaign has criticized the language Webb used in a 1979 article denouncing the idea of women serving in combat roles and at the U.S. Naval Academy. In thinking about your vote for U.S. Senate this year, will Webb's past comments about women in the military be extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not at all important?

                ------Important-------   -----Not as important------   No   
                NET   Extremely   Very   NET   Somewhat   Not at all   op.  
10/12/06 LV     17        6        11    82       27          55        1

36. As you may have seen or heard, Allen's comments to an Indian-American Webb supporter at a campaign rally have been interpreted by some as racially insensitive, a claim Allen denies. In thinking about your vote for U.S. Senate this year, will Allen's comments at that campaign event be extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not at all important?

                ------Important-------   -----Not as important------   No   
                NET   Extremely   Very   NET   Somewhat   Not at all   op.  
10/12/06 LV     25       11        14    74       28          46        1

37. Based on what you know, do you think George Allen's comments to the Indian-American Webb supporter were intentionally racist, racist but not intentionally so, or not racist at all?

                Intentionally      Racist but not      Not racist      No
                    racist        intentionally so       at all       opin.
10/12/06 LV           18                 44                33           5

Compare to: Time/CNN Based on what you have heard or read, do you think Trent Lott's statement (at a birthday celebration for Senator Strom Thurmond that some have interpreted as racist) was intentionally racist, racist but not intentionally so, or not racist at all?


                Intentionally      Racist but not      Not racist      No
                    racist        intentionally so       at all       opin.
12/18/02              22                 49                14          15


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