Oct. 25, 2010, Maryland governor's race poll
Key | ||
| * | -- | less than 0.5 percent |
| RV | -- | Registered voters |
| LV | -- | Likely voters (who say they are "absolutely certain" to vote) |
| All | -- | All responses |
This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone October 19-22, 2010, among a random sample of 2,355 adult residents of Maryland, including 1,962 registered voters and 1,434 likely voters. Interviews were conducted on both conventional and cellular phones, and in English and Spanish. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points; it is three points for the registered voter and likely voter samples. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt SRBI, Inc of New York, NY.
1. Are you registered to vote at your present address, or not?
Yes No No opinion 9/26/10 81 19 *
Are you registered as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or something else?
Democrat Republican Independent Something else No opinion 10/22/10 LV 59 30 9 2 * 10/22/10 RV 57 27 13 3 1 9/26/10 LV 58 29 10 1 1 9/26/10 RV 57 26 13 3 2 5/6/10 RV 56 27 13 3 1 10/20/08 RV 57 29 14 * * 10/22/07 RV 56 25 14 4 1 10/26/06 RV 56 30 11 3 1 6/25/06 RV 51 29 14 4 1
2. (If respondent is a registered voter.) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the upcoming election for governor and U.S. Senator this November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? (Some respondents said they didn't think they would vote.)
10/22/10 RV 9/26/10 RV 5/6/10 RV 10/26/06 RV
Certain to vote 69 71 67 72
Probably will vote 14 14 19 13
50-50 chance of voting 8 10 11 7
Less than 50-50 chance of voting 5 4 2 4
Don't think they will vote 2 1 1 1
No opinion * * * 1 3. (If respondent is a likely voter.) Do you think you'll vote in person at your polling place on Election Day, or vote before Election Day by early voting or mail-in ballot? (Some respondents said they'd already voted.)
10/22/10 LV
Election Day/in-person 81
Early/absentee 15
Already voted 1
No opinion 3 4. (If respondent is a likely voter.) Would you say you are following this year's governor's race in the state of Maryland very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?
-------Closely------- --------Not closely-------
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all No opinion
10/22/10 LV 88 41 47 12 8 3 1
9/26/10 RV 72 32 40 27 17 11 *
9/26/10 LV 86 42 44 14 10 4 *
5/6/10 RV 61 26 35 38 23 15 1
10/26/06 LV 91 49 42 9 8 2 *
10/24/02 LV 89 45 44 10 8 2 * 5. (If respondent is a likely voter.) As you may know, the candidates for Maryland governor in 2010 are: (Martin O'Malley, the Democrat), (Bob Ehrlich, the Republican), (Maria Allwine, from the Green Party), (Susan Gaztanaga, the Libertarian) and (Eric Knowles from the Constitution Party); if the election were held today, for whom would you vote? Which one would you lean toward right now? (Though not offered as an option, some respondents said they would vote for neither O'Malley nor Ehrlich.)
O'Malley Ehrlich Other* Neither Would not vote No opinion
10/22/10 LV 54 40 3 N/A N/A 4
9/26/10 RV 49 35 3 N/A 2 10
9/26/10 LV 52 41 2 N/A N/A 4
5/6/10 RV 49 41 * 3 1 6
5/6/10 LV 47 47 * 2 N/A 4
10/20/08 RV 57 36 * 1 1 5
'06 Election 53 46 1 N/A N/A N/A
10/26/06 LV 55 45 0 1 N/A *
6/25/06 LV 55 39 * 1 N/A 4
6/25/06 RV 51 40 * 3 N/A 5 *All other candidates mentioned.
6. (If respondent says they'll vote for or leans toward O'Malley or Ehrlich.) Will you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (If respondent says there's a chance they could change their mind.) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
Among registered voters who are leaned O'Malley/Ehrlich supporters:
-- Chance they'll change mind --
Definitely NET Good Unlikely No opinion
O'Malley 83 14 6 8 2
Ehrlich 82 16 7 9 2 Trend for O'Malley:
-- Chance they'll change mind --
Definitely NET Good Unlikely No opinion
10/22/10 LV 83 14 6 8 2
9/26/10 RV 71 27 10 17 2
9/26/10 LV 77 21 7 14 1
5/6/10 RV 55 41 17 24 4
5/6/10 LV 63 33 15 18 5
10/26/06 LV 85 15 5 10 * Trend for Ehrlich:
-- Chance they'll change mind --
Definitely NET Good Unlikely No opinion
10/22/10 LV 82 16 7 9 2
9/26/10 RV 74 24 10 14 2
9/26/10 LV 80 18 7 11 2
5/6/10 RV 59 36 18 18 5
5/6/10 LV 67 29 13 16 4
10/26/06 LV 85 15 5 10 * 7. (If respondent plans to vote for or leans toward O'Malley or Ehrlich) Thinking about his candidacy for governor so far, how enthusiastic are you about (CANDIDATE) -- very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
Among registered voters who are leaned O'Malley/Ehrlich supporters:
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not Enthusiastic ----
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all No opinion
O'Malley 89 36 52 11 7 3 1
Ehrlich 86 41 45 14 11 3 1 Trend for O'Malley:
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not Enthusiastic ----
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all No opinion
10/22/10 LV 89 36 52 11 7 3 1
9/26/10 RV 80 34 47 19 16 3 1
9/26/10 LV 84 36 48 15 14 1 1
10/26/06 LV 88 42 46 11 9 2 1 Trend for Ehrlich:
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not Enthusiastic ----
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all No opinion
10/22/10 LV 86 41 45 14 11 3 1
9/26/10 RV 84 34 50 14 12 2 1
9/26/10 LV 89 41 49 10 8 2 1
10/26/06 LV 93 54 39 6 5 1 1 8. (If respondent is a likely voter.) And on the Maryland governor's race: Which of the following issues do you think is the biggest problem facing the state of Maryland these days, the one you want the next governor to work hardest on: (crime), (taxes), (the state economy), (public education), (transportation), or (growth and development)?
10/22/10 LV 9/26/10 RV 9/26/10 LV 10/26/06 LV 6/25/06 RV
Crime 5 11 11 18 20
Taxes 17 16 16 7 12
The state economy 41 37 41 16 13
Public education 19 20 16 37 35
Transportation 3 3 3 7 7
Growth and development 8 6 6 11 9
Other 6 5 6 3 3
No opinion 1 2 1 1 1 9. (If respondent is a likely voter.) Please tell me whether each of the following statements applies more to (O'Malley) or more to (Ehrlich). (Though not provided as options, some respondents said the statements applied to both Ehrlich and O'Malley, or to neither of them.)
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion
He understands the problems of people like you 51 36 3 7 4
He would look out for the needs of your part of the state 51 37 3 4 5 Trend where available:
He understands the problems of people like you
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion 10/22/10 LV 51 36 3 7 4 9/26/10 RV 44 32 4 9 11 9/26/10 LV 45 35 5 9 6 5/6/10 RV 41 31 5 10 13 5/6/10 LV 39 39 4 10 9 10/26/06 LV 52 38 2 5 3
He would look out for the needs of your part of the state
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion
10/22/10 LV 51 37 3 4 5
9/26/10 LV 46 36 4 7 6
9/26/10 RV 44 31 5 9 11 10. (If respondent is a likely voter.) And which candidate, (O'Malley) or (Ehrlich), do you trust to do a better job on each of these issues?
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion
Taxes 47 41 2 5 5
Public education 62 27 2 3 5
The state economy 51 40 2 3 4
The state budget deficit 49 40 2 5 5
Illegal Immigration 36 44 1 7 12 Trend where available:
Taxes
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion 10/22/10 LV 47 41 2 5 5 9/26/10 RV 43 38 3 6 11 9/26/10 LV 42 42 3 6 7 5/6/10 RV 36 44 3 5 12 5/6/10 LV 34 50 3 5 7 10/26/06 LV 47 45 1 3 4
Public education
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion 10/22/10 LV 62 27 2 3 5 9/26/10 RV 51 28 5 4 12 9/26/10 LV 52 31 5 4 7 5/6/10 RV 49 29 6 3 13 5/6/10 LV 47 36 5 3 9 10/26/06 LV 50 43 2 3 2
The state economy
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion 10/22/10 LV 51 40 2 3 4 9/26/10 RV 43 37 4 5 10 9/26/10 LV 45 41 4 5 5 5/6/10 RV 39 43 2 4 11 5/6/10 LV 38 51 2 4 5 10/26/06 LV 46 48 1 2 3
The state budget deficit
O'Malley Ehrlich Both Neither No opinion 10/22/10 LV 49 40 2 5 5 9/26/10 RV 41 38 2 8 11 9/26/10 LV 40 43 3 6 7 5/6/10 RV 39 43 2 4 11 5/6/10 LV 38 51 2 4 5
11. (If respondent is a likely voter.) Do you think things in the state of Maryland are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
Right direction Wrong track No opinion 10/22/10 LV 47 48 5 9/26/10 40 49 11 9/26/10 RV 42 51 7 5/6/10 39 49 12 5/6/10 RV 41 52 7 10/20/08 RV 31 63 6 10/22/07 RV 45 48 7 10/26/06 LV 57 39 5 6/25/06 RV 44 50 6 1/7/04 RV 56 36 8 10/24/02 LV 42 51 7 10/22/98 RV 54 36 10 6/17/98 LV 56 32 11 6/17/98 All 53 34 13 12/19/93 All 33 56 11
12. (If respondent is a likely voter.) Generally speaking, how would you rate the overall economy of Maryland: excellent, good, not-so-good or poor?
--- Excellent/Good --- -----Not so good/Poor-----
NET Excellent Good NET Not so good Poor No opinion
10/22/10 LV 46 3 43 54 39 14 1
9/26/10 40 3 37 59 43 16 2
9/26/10 RV 40 3 37 59 43 16 1
5/6/10 41 3 38 57 42 15 2
5/6/10 RV 44 2 41 55 40 15 1
10/22/07 RV 62 6 56 36 27 10 1
10/22/07 64 6 58 35 24 10 1
1/7/04 RV 61 3 58 38 31 7 1
1/7/04 63 4 59 36 28 8 1
10/24/02 LV 57 3 54 42 33 9 1
10/22/98 LV 76 8 67 23 18 4 2
6/17/98 LV 78 10 68 20 16 4 2
6/17/98 75 8 67 23 17 6 3 13. (If respondent is a registered voter.) Regardless of how you (may vote/voted), do you approve or disapprove of the way Martin O'Malley is handling his job as governor?
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
10/22/10 LV 59 25 34 38 15 22 3
10/22/10 RV 55 21 34 36 15 21 9
9/26/10 57 20 37 33 16 17 11
9/26/10 RV 60 22 39 33 15 18 6
5/6/10 54 17 37 34 17 17 12
5/6/10 RV 58 19 39 34 17 17 8
10/20/08 RV 53 14 39 37 16 21 10
10/22/07 RV 51 13 38 39 17 22 11
10/22/07 53 12 40 36 18 19 11 Compare to Bob Ehrlich:
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
10/26/06 LV 55 30 25 42 19 23 3
6/25/06 RV 56 21 36 41 21 20 3
1/7/04 RV 64 23 41 29 17 12 8
1/7/04 All 62 21 42 28 17 11 10 Compare to Parris Glendening:
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
10/24/02 LV 37 9 29 58 22 37 4
10/22/98 LV 54 16 38 40 21 19 6
6/17/98 LV 55 14 41 36 19 18 9 14. (If respondent is a registered voter.) Do you approve or disapprove of the way O'Malley is handling the issue of the state budget and taxes?
Approve Disapprove No opinion 10/22/10 LV 48 46 6 10/22/10 RV 44 46 11 9/26/10 RV 45 43 12 5/6/10 RV 46 40 14 10/22/07 RV 39 52 10
15. (If respondent is a registered voter.) Do you approve or disapprove of the way O'Malley is handling the issue of the state economy?
Approve Disapprove No opinion 10/22/10 LV 52 42 6 10/22/10 RV 48 42 10
16. (If respondent is a likely voter.) How much would you say O'Malley has accomplished as governor: a lot, a fair amount, some, or not much?
--- A lot/A fair amount --- --- Some/Not much ---
NET A lot A fair amount NET Some Not much No opinion
10/22/10 LV 51 12 39 47 25 22 2
9/26/10 RV 45 11 34 49 31 19 6
5/6/10 RV 46 8 38 48 29 20 5
10/22/07 RV 28 3 25 67 32 35 4 (10/22/07 question included phrase "in his first year.")
17. (If respondent is a likely voter.) Thinking back to when Ehrlich was governor, how much would you say Ehrlich accomplished as governor: a lot, a fair amount, some, or not much?
--- A lot/A fair amount --- --- Some/Not much ---
NET A lot A fair amount NET Some Not much No opinion
10/22/10 LV 51 12 39 47 25 22 2
9/26/10 LV 46 11 35 51 30 21 4
9/26/10 RV 45 11 34 49 31 19 6
5/6/10 RV 46 8 38 48 29 20 5
10/22/07 RV 28 3 25 67 32 35 4
(1/7/04 question included phrase "in his first year.")
18.(If respondent is a registered voter.) Please tell me whether the phrase "he has a vision for the state's future" describes [NAME] very well, fairly well, not too well, or not well at all? Next, how about [NAME], does the phrase "he has a vision for the state's future" describe him very well, fairly well, not too well, or not well at all?
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all No opinion Bob Ehrlich 56 16 40 39 22 17 4 Martin O'Malley 65 21 44 31 18 13 4
19. (If respondent is a likely voter.) I am going to read you a list of names. For each, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person, or perhaps you don't know enough to say.
Among registered voters:
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Bob Ehrlich 50 43 7 Martin O'Malley 62 34 4 Barbara Mikulski 61 28 11 Eric Wargotz 11 8 80
Trend for Bob Ehrlich:
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 10/22/10 LV 50 43 7 9/26/10 RV 55 32 13 10/20/08 RV 48 30 22 10/20/08 LV 50 30 20 10/26/06 LV 56 40 5 6/25/06 RV 55 38 7 1/7/04 RV 68 18 14
Trend for Martin O'Malley:
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 10/22/10 LV 62 34 4 9/26/10 RV 64 26 10 10/20/08 RV 56 31 13 10/20/08 LV 55 33 12 10/26/06 LV 62 29 8 6/25/06 RV 51 30 19 1/7/04 RV 54 12 34
20. (If respondent is a registered voter.) Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion
10/22/10 LV 59 39 20 40 8 31 2
10/22/10 RV 60 37 23 37 9 27 3
9/26/10 LV 58 36 22 41 9 32 1
9/26/10 RV 61 37 24 37 10 26 2
9/26/10 61 37 23 36 11 25 3
5/6/10 62 40 21 34 10 24 5
5/6/10 RV 62 42 19 36 9 26 3 21. (If respondent is a likely voter.) As you may know, the candidates in November's election for U.S. Senate include (Barbara Mikulski, the Democrat), (Eric Wargotz, the Republican), (Richard Shawver from the Constitution Party) and (Kenniss Henry, from the Green Party). Suppose the election was held today: for whom would you vote? Some respondents said they wouldn't vote.
Net leaned vote:
Mikulski Wargotz Other Would not vote No opinion 10/22/10 LV 64 27 4 3 4 9/26/10 LV 61 29 3 2 5 9/26/10 RV 59 24 3 3 11
22. (If respondent is a likely voter.) Back to the governor's race between O'Malley and Ehrlich: will one reason for your vote for governor be to express (support for) Obama, to express (opposition to) Obama, or is Obama not a factor in your choice?
Support Opposition Not a factor No opinion 10/22/10 LV 18 11 70 1 9/26/10 RV 17 11 70 3 9/26/10 LV 16 12 70 2
Compare to George W. Bush: Was one reason for your vote for governor/Will one reason for your vote for governor be to express (support for) Bush, to express (opposition to) Bush, or is Bush not a factor in your choice?"
Support Opposition Not a factor No opinion 10/26/06 LV 5 19 75 *
23. (If respondent is a likely voter.) Regardless of whom you support, who do you think will win the election for governor: (O'Malley) or (Ehrlich)?
O'Malley Ehrlich Someone else No opinion 10/26/10 LV 67 23 1 9
24. (If respondent is a likely voter.) Regardless of how you may (vote/have voted), if control of the Congress switched from the Democrats to the Republicans after November's election, do you think that would be a good thing, a bad thing, or wouldn't it make any difference?
Good thing Bad thing No difference No opinion 10/22/10 LV 35 38 25 2
Compare to national:
Good Bad No difference No opinion 10/3/10 All 38 27 32 2 10/3/10 RV 40 28 29 3 10/3/10 LV 46 29 23 3 3/26/10 All 36 32 30 2 3/26/10 RV 36 34 29 1
25. (If respondent is a likely voter.) I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which one best describes how you feel about the way the federal government works. Do you feel enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry?
---------- Positive ---------- -------- Negative --------
NET Enthusiastic Satisfied NET Dissatisfied Angry No opinion
10/22/10 LV 38 5 33 61 41 20 1
9/26/10 LV 38 4 34 59 38 21 2
9/26/10 RV 38 4 35 59 42 18 2
5/6/10 RV 45 5 40 53 38 15 2 Compare to national:
---------- Positive ---------- -------- Negative --------
NET Enthusiastic Satisfied NET Dissatisfied Angry No opinion
10/3/10 LV 27 4 23 71 46 25 *
9/2/10 RV 22 3 19 78 52 26 * 