Oct. 25, 2010, Maryland governor's race poll

Key

*--less than 0.5 percent
RV--Registered voters
LV--Likely voters (who say they are "absolutely certain" to vote)
All--All responses

This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone October 19-22, 2010, among a random sample of 2,355 adult residents of Maryland, including 1,962 registered voters and 1,434 likely voters. Interviews were conducted on both conventional and cellular phones, and in English and Spanish. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points; it is three points for the registered voter and likely voter samples. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt SRBI, Inc of New York, NY.

1. Are you registered to vote at your present address, or not?

             Yes     No     No opinion
9/26/10       81     19          *

Are you registered as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or something else?

              Democrat   Republican   Independent   Something else   No opinion
10/22/10 LV      59          30            9               2              *
10/22/10 RV      57          27           13               3              1
9/26/10  LV      58          29           10               1              1
9/26/10  RV      57          26           13               3              2
5/6/10   RV      56          27           13               3              1
10/20/08 RV      57          29           14               *              *
10/22/07 RV      56          25           14               4              1
10/26/06 RV      56          30           11               3              1 
6/25/06  RV      51          29           14               4              1

2. (If respondent is a registered voter.) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the upcoming election for governor and U.S. Senator this November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? (Some respondents said they didn't think they would vote.)

                                  10/22/10 RV   9/26/10 RV   5/6/10 RV   10/26/06 RV
                 Certain to vote      69            71          67           72
              Probably will vote      14            14          19           13
          50-50 chance of voting       8            10          11            7
Less than 50-50 chance of voting       5             4           2            4
      Don't think they will vote       2             1           1            1
                      No opinion       *             *           *            1

3. (If respondent is a likely voter.) Do you think you'll vote in person at your polling place on Election Day, or vote before Election Day by early voting or mail-in ballot? (Some respondents said they'd already voted.)

                        10/22/10 LV
Election Day/in-person      81
        Early/absentee      15
         Already voted       1
            No opinion		 3

4. (If respondent is a likely voter.) Would you say you are following this year's governor's race in the state of Maryland very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?

               -------Closely-------     --------Not closely-------     
               NET    Very    Fairly     NET   Not too   Not at all    No opinion
10/22/10  LV    88     41       47        12       8          3             1
9/26/10   RV    72     32       40        27      17         11             *
9/26/10   LV    86     42       44        14      10          4             *
5/6/10    RV    61     26       35        38      23         15             1 
10/26/06  LV    91     49       42         9       8          2             * 
10/24/02  LV    89     45       44        10       8          2             *

5. (If respondent is a likely voter.) As you may know, the candidates for Maryland governor in 2010 are: (Martin O'Malley, the Democrat), (Bob Ehrlich, the Republican), (Maria Allwine, from the Green Party), (Susan Gaztanaga, the Libertarian) and (Eric Knowles from the Constitution Party); if the election were held today, for whom would you vote? Which one would you lean toward right now? (Though not offered as an option, some respondents said they would vote for neither O'Malley nor Ehrlich.)

              O'Malley   Ehrlich   Other*   Neither   Would not vote   No opinion
10/22/10 LV      54        40        3        N/A          N/A              4         
9/26/10  RV      49        35        3        N/A           2              10   
9/26/10  LV      52        41        2        N/A          N/A              4         
5/6/10   RV      49        41        *         3            1               6
5/6/10   LV      47        47        *         2           N/A              4
10/20/08 RV      57        36        *         1            1               5
'06 Election     53        46        1        N/A          N/A             N/A
10/26/06 LV      55        45        0         1           N/A              *
6/25/06  LV      55        39        *         1           N/A              4
6/25/06  RV      51        40        *         3           N/A              5

*All other candidates mentioned.

6. (If respondent says they'll vote for or leans toward O'Malley or Ehrlich.) Will you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (If respondent says there's a chance they could change their mind.) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?

Among registered voters who are leaned O'Malley/Ehrlich supporters:

                            -- Chance they'll change mind --      
             Definitely     NET        Good         Unlikely     No opinion
O'Malley         83          14          6              8             2
Ehrlich          82          16          7              9             2

Trend for O'Malley:

                            -- Chance they'll change mind --      
             Definitely     NET        Good         Unlikely     No opinion
10/22/10 LV      83          14          6              8             2     
9/26/10  RV      71          27         10             17             2     
9/26/10  LV      77          21          7             14             1     
5/6/10   RV      55          41         17             24             4
5/6/10   LV      63          33         15             18             5
10/26/06 LV      85          15          5             10             *

Trend for Ehrlich:

                            -- Chance they'll change mind --      
             Definitely     NET        Good         Unlikely     No opinion
10/22/10 LV      82          16          7              9             2     
9/26/10  RV      74          24         10             14             2     
9/26/10  LV      80          18          7             11             2     
5/6/10   RV      59          36         18             18             5
5/6/10   LV      67          29         13             16             4
10/26/06 LV      85          15          5             10             *

7. (If respondent plans to vote for or leans toward O'Malley or Ehrlich) Thinking about his candidacy for governor so far, how enthusiastic are you about (CANDIDATE) -- very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?

Among registered voters who are leaned O'Malley/Ehrlich supporters:

              --- Enthusiastic --    ---- Not Enthusiastic ----     
              NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too   Not at all    No opinion
O'Malley       89    36      52       11       7          3             1
Ehrlich        86    41      45       14      11          3             1

Trend for O'Malley:

              --- Enthusiastic --    ---- Not Enthusiastic ----     
              NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too   Not at all    No opinion
10/22/10 LV    89    36      52       11       7          3             1
9/26/10  RV    80    34      47       19      16          3             1
9/26/10  LV    84    36      48       15      14          1             1
10/26/06 LV    88    42      46       11       9          2             1

Trend for Ehrlich:

              --- Enthusiastic --    ---- Not Enthusiastic ----     
              NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too   Not at all    No opinion
10/22/10 LV    86    41      45       14      11          3             1
9/26/10  RV    84    34      50       14      12          2             1
9/26/10  LV    89    41      49       10       8          2             1
10/26/06 LV    93    54      39        6       5          1             1

8. (If respondent is a likely voter.) And on the Maryland governor's race: Which of the following issues do you think is the biggest problem facing the state of Maryland these days, the one you want the next governor to work hardest on: (crime), (taxes), (the state economy), (public education), (transportation), or (growth and development)?

                        10/22/10 LV    9/26/10 RV   9/26/10 LV     10/26/06 LV    6/25/06 RV
                 Crime       5             11           11             18             20
                 Taxes      17             16           16              7             12
     The state economy      41             37           41             16             13
      Public education      19             20           16             37             35  
        Transportation       3              3            3              7              7
Growth and development       8              6            6             11              9
                 Other       6              5            6              3              3
            No opinion       1              2            1              1              1

9. (If respondent is a likely voter.) Please tell me whether each of the following statements applies more to (O'Malley) or more to (Ehrlich). (Though not provided as options, some respondents said the statements applied to both Ehrlich and O'Malley, or to neither of them.)

                                                           O'Malley  Ehrlich  Both  Neither   No opinion
           He understands the problems of people like you     51       36       3      7           4  
He would look out for the needs of your part of the state     51       37       3      4           5

Trend where available:

He understands the problems of people like you

              O'Malley  Ehrlich   Both   Neither   No opinion
10/22/10 LV      51       36        3       7           4
9/26/10  RV      44       32        4       9          11
9/26/10  LV      45       35        5       9           6
5/6/10   RV      41       31        5      10          13
5/6/10   LV      39       39        4      10           9
10/26/06 LV      52       38        2       5           3

He would look out for the needs of your part of the state

              O'Malley  Ehrlich   Both   Neither   No opinion
10/22/10 LV      51       37        3       4           5
9/26/10  LV      46       36        4       7           6
9/26/10  RV      44       31        5       9          11

10. (If respondent is a likely voter.) And which candidate, (O'Malley) or (Ehrlich), do you trust to do a better job on each of these issues?

                          O'Malley  Ehrlich  Both  Neither   No opinion
                   Taxes     47       41       2      5           5
        Public education     62       27       2      3           5
       The state economy     51       40       2      3           4
The state budget deficit     49       40       2      5           5
     Illegal Immigration     36       44       1      7          12

Trend where available:

Taxes

              O'Malley  Ehrlich   Both   Neither   No opinion
10/22/10 LV      47       41        2       5           5
9/26/10  RV      43       38        3       6          11
9/26/10  LV      42       42        3       6           7
5/6/10   RV      36       44        3       5          12
5/6/10   LV      34       50        3       5           7
10/26/06 LV      47       45        1       3           4

Public education

              O'Malley  Ehrlich   Both   Neither   No opinion
10/22/10 LV      62       27        2       3           5
9/26/10  RV      51       28        5       4          12
9/26/10  LV      52       31        5       4           7
5/6/10   RV      49       29        6       3          13
5/6/10   LV      47       36        5       3           9
10/26/06 LV      50       43        2       3           2

The state economy

              O'Malley  Ehrlich   Both   Neither   No opinion
10/22/10 LV      51       40        2       3           4
9/26/10  RV      43       37        4       5          10
9/26/10  LV      45       41        4       5           5
5/6/10   RV      39       43        2       4          11
5/6/10   LV      38       51        2       4           5
10/26/06 LV      46       48        1       2           3

The state budget deficit

              O'Malley  Ehrlich   Both   Neither   No opinion
10/22/10 LV      49       40        2       5           5
9/26/10  RV      41       38        2       8          11
9/26/10  LV      40       43        3       6           7
5/6/10   RV      39       43        2       4          11
5/6/10   LV      38       51        2       4           5

11. (If respondent is a likely voter.) Do you think things in the state of Maryland are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

                 Right direction     Wrong track     No opinion
10/22/10 LV            47                48               5
9/26/10                40                49              11
9/26/10  RV            42                51               7
5/6/10                 39                49              12
5/6/10   RV            41                52               7
10/20/08 RV            31                63               6
10/22/07 RV            45                48               7
10/26/06 LV            57                39               5
6/25/06  RV            44                50               6
1/7/04   RV            56                36               8
10/24/02 LV            42                51               7
10/22/98 RV            54                36              10
6/17/98  LV            56                32              11
6/17/98  All           53                34              13
12/19/93 All           33                56              11

12. (If respondent is a likely voter.) Generally speaking, how would you rate the overall economy of Maryland: excellent, good, not-so-good or poor?

             --- Excellent/Good ---    -----Not so good/Poor-----      
             NET   Excellent   Good    NET    Not so good    Poor   No opinion
10/22/10 LV  46        3        43      54        39          14         1
9/26/10      40        3        37      59        43          16         2
9/26/10  RV  40        3        37      59        43          16         1
5/6/10       41        3        38      57        42          15         2 
5/6/10   RV  44        2        41      55        40          15         1 
10/22/07 RV  62        6        56      36        27          10         1 
10/22/07     64        6        58      35        24          10         1 
1/7/04   RV  61        3        58      38        31           7         1 
1/7/04       63        4        59      36        28           8         1 
10/24/02 LV  57        3        54      42        33           9         1
10/22/98 LV  76        8        67      23        18           4         2
6/17/98  LV  78       10        68      20        16           4         2
6/17/98      75        8        67      23        17           6         3

13. (If respondent is a registered voter.) Regardless of how you (may vote/voted), do you approve or disapprove of the way Martin O'Malley is handling his job as governor?

              -------- Approve --------    ------- Disapprove ------    
              NET   Strongly   Somewhat    NET   Somewhat   Strongly   No opinion
10/22/10 LV    59      25         34        38      15         22           3
10/22/10 RV    55      21         34        36      15         21           9 
9/26/10        57      20         37        33      16         17          11
9/26/10  RV    60      22         39        33      15         18           6
5/6/10         54      17         37        34      17         17          12
5/6/10   RV    58      19         39        34      17         17           8
10/20/08 RV    53      14         39        37      16         21          10
10/22/07 RV    51      13         38        39      17         22          11
10/22/07       53      12         40        36      18         19          11

Compare to Bob Ehrlich:

              -------- Approve --------    ------- Disapprove ------    
              NET   Strongly   Somewhat    NET   Somewhat   Strongly   No opinion
10/26/06 LV    55      30         25        42      19         23           3
6/25/06  RV    56      21         36        41      21         20           3
1/7/04   RV    64      23         41        29      17         12           8
1/7/04   All   62      21         42        28      17         11          10

Compare to Parris Glendening:

              -------- Approve --------    ------- Disapprove ------    
              NET   Strongly   Somewhat    NET   Somewhat   Strongly   No opinion
10/24/02 LV    37       9         29        58      22         37           4
10/22/98 LV    54      16         38        40      21         19           6
6/17/98  LV    55      14         41        36      19         18           9

14. (If respondent is a registered voter.) Do you approve or disapprove of the way O'Malley is handling the issue of the state budget and taxes?

             Approve    Disapprove    No opinion
10/22/10 LV    48           46             6
10/22/10 RV    44           46            11
9/26/10  RV    45           43            12
5/6/10   RV    46           40            14 
10/22/07 RV    39           52            10

15. (If respondent is a registered voter.) Do you approve or disapprove of the way O'Malley is handling the issue of the state economy?

             Approve     Disapprove     No opinion
10/22/10 LV    52            42              6
10/22/10 RV    48            42             10

16. (If respondent is a likely voter.) How much would you say O'Malley has accomplished as governor: a lot, a fair amount, some, or not much?

              --- A lot/A fair amount ---     --- Some/Not much ---       
              NET   A lot   A fair amount     NET   Some   Not much     No opinion
10/22/10 LV    51     12         39            47    25       22             2 
9/26/10  RV    45     11         34            49    31       19             6 
5/6/10   RV    46      8         38            48    29       20             5
10/22/07 RV    28      3         25            67    32       35             4

(10/22/07 question included phrase "in his first year.")

17. (If respondent is a likely voter.) Thinking back to when Ehrlich was governor, how much would you say Ehrlich accomplished as governor: a lot, a fair amount, some, or not much?

              --- A lot/A fair amount ---     --- Some/Not much ---       
              NET   A lot   A fair amount     NET   Some   Not much     No opinion
10/22/10 LV    51     12         39            47    25       22             2 
9/26/10  LV    46     11         35            51    30       21             4 
9/26/10  RV    45     11         34            49    31       19             6 
5/6/10   RV    46      8         38            48    29       20             5
10/22/07 RV    28      3         25            67    32       35             4

(1/7/04 question included phrase "in his first year.")

18.(If respondent is a registered voter.) Please tell me whether the phrase "he has a vision for the state's future" describes [NAME] very well, fairly well, not too well, or not well at all? Next, how about [NAME], does the phrase "he has a vision for the state's future" describe him very well, fairly well, not too well, or not well at all?

                     NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too   Not at all   No opinion
Bob Ehrlich           56    16      40       39     22          17            4
Martin O'Malley       65    21      44       31     18          13            4

19. (If respondent is a likely voter.) I am going to read you a list of names. For each, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person, or perhaps you don't know enough to say.

Among registered voters:

                     Favorable     Unfavorable     No opinion
Bob Ehrlich             50             43               7
Martin O'Malley         62             34               4
Barbara Mikulski        61             28              11
Eric Wargotz            11              8              80

Trend for Bob Ehrlich:

               Favorable     Unfavorable     No opinion
10/22/10 LV       50             43               7
9/26/10  RV       55             32              13
10/20/08 RV       48             30              22
10/20/08 LV       50             30              20
10/26/06 LV       56             40               5
6/25/06  RV       55             38               7
1/7/04   RV       68             18              14

Trend for Martin O'Malley:

               Favorable     Unfavorable     No opinion
10/22/10 LV       62             34               4
9/26/10  RV       64             26              10
10/20/08 RV       56             31              13
10/20/08 LV       55             33              12
10/26/06 LV       62             29               8
6/25/06  RV       51             30              19
1/7/04   RV       54             12              34

20. (If respondent is a registered voter.) Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

             -------- Approve --------   ------- Disapprove ------        
             NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   No opinion
10/22/10 LV   59      39         20       40       8         31           2
10/22/10 RV   60      37         23       37       9         27           3
9/26/10  LV   58      36         22       41       9         32           1
9/26/10  RV   61      37         24       37      10         26           2
9/26/10       61      37         23       36      11         25           3
5/6/10        62      40         21       34      10         24           5
5/6/10   RV   62      42         19       36       9         26           3

21. (If respondent is a likely voter.) As you may know, the candidates in November's election for U.S. Senate include (Barbara Mikulski, the Democrat), (Eric Wargotz, the Republican), (Richard Shawver from the Constitution Party) and (Kenniss Henry, from the Green Party). Suppose the election was held today: for whom would you vote? Some respondents said they wouldn't vote.

Net leaned vote:

             Mikulski   Wargotz   Other   Would not vote   No opinion   
10/22/10 LV     64        27        4            3              4   
9/26/10 LV      61        29        3            2              5 
9/26/10 RV      59        24        3            3             11

22. (If respondent is a likely voter.) Back to the governor's race between O'Malley and Ehrlich: will one reason for your vote for governor be to express (support for) Obama, to express (opposition to) Obama, or is Obama not a factor in your choice?

              Support   Opposition   Not a factor   No opinion
10/22/10 LV     18          11           70              1 
9/26/10 RV      17          11           70              3
9/26/10 LV      16          12           70              2

Compare to George W. Bush: Was one reason for your vote for governor/Will one reason for your vote for governor be to express (support for) Bush, to express (opposition to) Bush, or is Bush not a factor in your choice?"

              Support   Opposition   Not a factor   No opinion
10/26/06 LV      5          19           75              *

23. (If respondent is a likely voter.) Regardless of whom you support, who do you think will win the election for governor: (O'Malley) or (Ehrlich)?

              O'Malley    Ehrlich    Someone else    No opinion 
10/26/10 LV      67         23            1               9

24. (If respondent is a likely voter.) Regardless of how you may (vote/have voted), if control of the Congress switched from the Democrats to the Republicans after November's election, do you think that would be a good thing, a bad thing, or wouldn't it make any difference?

             Good thing   Bad thing   No difference   No opinion   
10/22/10 LV      35          38            25              2

Compare to national:

              Good   Bad   No difference   No opinion
10/3/10 All    38    27         32              2
10/3/10 RV     40    28         29              3
10/3/10 LV     46    29         23              3
3/26/10 All    36    32         30              2
3/26/10 RV     36    34         29              1

25. (If respondent is a likely voter.) I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which one best describes how you feel about the way the federal government works. Do you feel enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry?

              ---------- Positive ----------    -------- Negative --------                       
              NET   Enthusiastic   Satisfied    NET   Dissatisfied   Angry    No opinion      
10/22/10 LV    38         5           33         61        41         20           1 
9/26/10 LV     38         4           34         59        38         21           2
9/26/10 RV     38         4           35         59        42         18           2
5/6/10  RV     45         5           40         53        38         15           2

Compare to national:

              ---------- Positive ----------    -------- Negative --------                       
              NET   Enthusiastic   Satisfied    NET   Dissatisfied   Angry    No opinion      
10/3/10 LV     27         4           23         71        46         25           *
9/2/10  RV     22         3           19         78        52         26           *

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