Washington Post Virginia Governor's Race Poll

This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone October 22-25, 2009, among a random sample of 1,206 likely voters in the Commonwealth of Virginia including users of both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

*= less than 0.5 percent

McDonnell has double-digit lead in Va. governor's race, Post poll says (Oct. 26, 2009)

1. (IF REGISTERED VOTER) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the governor's election: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

                Certain   Probably  Chances  Less than  Don't think    Already    No 
                to Vote    vote      50/50    50/50    will vote(vol.)  Voted   opinion
10/25/09 LV        99         0         0        0            0           1        0
10/25/09 RV        60        16        13        6            2           1        1 
10/7/09  LV       100         0         0        0            0           *        0
10/7/09  RV        53        20        15        9            3           *        1
9/17/09  LV       100         0         0        0            0                    0
9/17/09  RV        53        19        16        9            3                    1
8/14/09  RV        61        16        13        7            2                    *
10/26/05 LV       100         0         0        0            0                    0 
9/9/05   LV       100         0         0        0            0                    0 
9/9/05   RV        68        18         9        4            1                    0 
10/25/01 RV        63        19        10        5            2                    1
8/23/01  RV        68        16        10        5            1                    *
8/27/00  RV        76        14         7        2            1                    *

2. Would you say you are following this year's governor's race in the state of Virginia very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?

                ------Closely------    -----Not closely-----    
                NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too  At all  No opinion
10/25/09 LV     89     39      50      11        9       2         *    
10/7/09  LV     87     33      54      13       11       2         * 
9/17/09  LV     84     34      51      15       12       4         *
8/14/09  LV     67     25      42      32       23       9         1
8/14/09  RV     48     17      32      51       30      21         *
10/26/05 LV     87     31      56      13       10       2         *
9/9/05   LV     73     20      53      27       20       7         * 
9/9/05   RV     59     15      44      41       26      15         *    
8/23/01  RV     60     16      44      39       26      13         1
8/27/00  RV     61     21      40      38       25      13         *
6/23/94  RV     74     27      47      27       18       9         *
2/3/94          73     27      46      27       18       9         *
9/93     RV     68     21      47      31       21      10         *
 

3. If the election were being held today and the candidates were (Creigh Deeds, the Democrat) and (Bob McDonnell, the Republican), for whom would you vote? (ASKED IF ALREADY VOTED) For whom did you vote for governor?

Net Leaned Vote:                Other     Wouldn't       No
             Deeds  McDonnell   (vol.)   vote (vol.)   opinion  
10/25/09 LV   44        55        *         NA            1 
10/7/09  LV   44        53        1          *            2 
9/17/09  LV   47        51        *          0            2
8/14/09  LV   39        54        1          *            7
8/14/09  RV   40        47        1          3            9  
 

4. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE) in November, or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind or would you say it's pretty unlikely?

 
Deeds:                            --------Change mind--------
                Definitely vote   NET  Good chance   Unlikely     No opinion
10/25/09 LV          78           20        6           14              2
10/7/09  LV          76           21        6           15              3
9/17/09  LV          72           26       10           16              2
8/14/09  LV          62           33       12           21              5
8/14/09  RV          61           35       15           20              4

McDonnell:                        --------Change mind--------
                Definitely vote   NET  Good chance   Unlikely     No opinion
10/25/09 LV          88           11        2            9              1 
10/7/09  LV          78           21        5           15              1
9/17/09  LV          69           28        7           21              3
8/14/09  LV          59           38       18           21              3
8/14/09  RV          50           46       21           26              4

5. Thinking about his candidacy for governor so far, how enthusiastic are you about (CANDIDATE) -- very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?

Among Leaned Deeds/McDonnell Supporters:

              ---Enthusiastic----    --Not enthusiastic---    
              NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too  At all   No opinion
a. Deeds       75    22      53       24      21       3         1
b. McDonnell   91    39      52        9       8       1         *

Trend:

a. Deeds      ---Enthusiastic----    --Not enthusiastic---    
              NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too  At all   No opinion
10/25/09 LV    75    22      53       24      21       3         1
10/7/09  LV    79    20      59       20      16       4         *
9/17/09  LV    82    22      60       17      14       3         1
8/14/09  LV    79    16      63       19      15       4         2
8/14/09  RV    67    12      56       31      22       8         2

b. McDonnell  ---Enthusiastic----    --Not enthusiastic---    
              NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too  At all   No opinion
10/25/09 LV    91    39      52        9       8       1         *
10/7/09  LV    85    35      51       14      12       2         *
9/17/09  LV    89    36      53       10       9       1         *
8/14/09  LV    79    26      53       18      15       3         3
8/14/09  RV    68    20      48       29      20       9         3

6. Do you think (NAME) views on most issues are (too liberal for you), (too conservative for you), or just about right?

                   Too         Too        Just about     No
                 liberal   conservative      right     opinion 
a. Deeds's         46            7            42          5
b. McDonnell's      7           34            54          5

Trend data:

a. Deeds's
               Too         Too        Just about     No
             liberal   conservative      right     opinion 
10/25/09 LV    46            7            42          5
10/7/09  LV    44            7            42          8 
9/17/09  LV    42            6            47          5
8/14/09  LV    39            7            37         18
8/14/09  RV    32            7            39         22    

b. McDonnell's
               Too         Too        Just about     No
             liberal   conservative      right     opinion 
10/25/09 LV     7           34            54          5
10/7/09  LV     6           37            51          6
9/17/09  LV     7           40            47          5
8/14/09  LV     6           30            46         18
8/14/09  RV     9           27            38         26


Compare to:

Jerry Kilgore's:
                Too           Too          Just about     Don't know       No
              liberal     conservative       right        enough yet*    opinion
10/26/05 LV      8             38              49              NA           5
9/9/05   LV      8             31              47              12           3
9/9/05   RV      8             26              43              19           4

Tim Kaine's:
                Too           Too          Just about     Don't know       No
              liberal     conservative       right        enough yet*    opinion
10/26/05 LV     40              6              49              NA           5
9/9/05   LV     31              7              45              13           3
9/9/05   RV     27              7              41              22           4       
*"Don't know enough yet" respondents are those who said they knew "nothing at all"
or "don't know" about the candidate's qualifications to be governor. They were not
asked this question, but are shown as part of the base.

7. Regardless of how you [may vote/voted], whom do you trust to do a better job handling [ITEM] - (Deeds) or (McDonnell)?

Among likely voters:                                       Both     Neither  
                                      Deeds   McDonnell   (vol.)    (vol.)   No opinion
a. Issues of special concern to women  42         49        2         2           5
b. The economy and jobs                37         54        2         3           3
c. Transportation issues               37         53        2         3           4
d. Taxes                               33         58        2         4           4

Trend data:

a. Issues of special concern to women
                                  Both     Neither  
             Deeds   McDonnell   (vol.)    (vol.)   No opinion
10/25/09 LV   42         49        2         2           5
10/7/09  LV   47         41        2         3           8
9/17/09  LV   48         38        2         3           9

b. The economy and jobs
                                  Both     Neither  
             Deeds   McDonnell   (vol.)    (vol.)   No opinion
10/25/09 LV   37         54        2         3           3
10/7/09  LV   39         53        1         4           3
9/17/09  LV   43         48        1         4           3
8/14/09  LV   35         50        2         4           9
8/14/09  RV   38         40        2         4          15

c. Transportation issues
                                  Both     Neither  
             Deeds   McDonnell   (vol.)    (vol.)   No opinion
10/25/09 LV   37         53        2         3           4
10/7/09  LV   37         49        2         4           7
9/17/09  LV   38         46        3         3          10
8/14/09  LV   31         43        3         6          17
8/14/09  RV   35         34        3         6          22

i. Taxes
                                  Both     Neither  
             Deeds   McDonnell   (vol.)    (vol.)   No opinion
10/25/09 LV   33         58        2         4           4
10/7/09 LV    36         51        1         5           5
9/17/09 LV    39         50        2         4           5
8/14/09 LV    31         50        2         4          12
8/14/09 RV    35         42        2         5          16

8. Regardless of how you may vote, do you think (Deeds) or (McDonnell) [ITEM]?

Among likely voters:                                                       Both     Neither  No
                                                      Deeds   McDonnell   (vol.)    (vol.)   op.
a. would be a more effective leader                    37         58        1         2       3
b. is more honest and trustworthy                      34         48        6         8       5
c. better understands the problems of people like you  40         51        2         4       2

Trend data:

a. would be a more effective leader
                                      Deeds   McDonnell   (vol.)    (vol.)   op.
10/25/09 LV                            37         58        1         2       3
9/17/09  LV                            45         50        2         1       2

b. is more honest and trustworthy
                                      Deeds   McDonnell   (vol.)    (vol.)   op.
10/25/09 LV                            34         48        6         8       5
9/17/09  LV                            36         38       10         8       8

c. better understands the problems of people like you
                                                        Deeds   McDonnell   (vol.)    (vol.)   op.
10/25/09 LV                                              40         51        2         4       2
9/17/09  LV                                              46         45        2         4       3

9. Based on what you know or have heard, do you think (NAME) has been conducting mainly a positive campaign, or mainly a negative campaign?

Among likely voters:
               Positive   Negative   No opinion
a. Deeds          34         61           5 
b. McDonnell      57         37           6

Trend:

a. Deeds       Positive   Negative   No opinion
10/25/09 LV       34         61           5
10/7/09  LV       37         56           7

Compare to:

Tim Kaine      Positive   Negative   No opinion
10/26/05 LV       57         40           3

Mark Warner    Positive   Negative   No opinion
10/25/01 LV       68         27           5


b. McDonnell   Positive   Negative   No opinion
10/25/09 LV       57         37           6
10/7/09  LV       60         32           8

Compare to:

Jerry Kilgore  Positive   Negative   No opinion
10/26/05 LV       29         67           4

Mark Earley    Positive   Negative   No opinion
10/25/01 LV       39         53           8

10. (IF BOTH DEEDS AND MCDONNELL ARE NEGATIVE) Overall, who is running the more negative campaign, (Deeds) or (McDonnell)?

             Deeds   McDonnell   No opinion
10/25/09 LV   51         34          15 
10/7/09  LV   46         30          25

NET Summary
             Deeds   McDonnell   Neither   Other   No opinion
10/25/09 LV   49         22        18        4          7 
10/7/09  LV   44         18        22        4         11

Compare to:

(IF BOTH KILGORE AND KAINE ARE NEGATIVE) Overall, who is running the more negative
campaign, (Kilgore) or (Kaine)?

              Kilgore   Kaine   No opinion
10/26/05 LV     53        30        17

NET Summary
              Kilgore     Kaine     Neither     Other     No opin.
10/26/05 LV     53          19        19          1           8

11. [Will/Was] one reason for your vote for governor [be] to express (support for) President Obama, to express (opposition to) Obama, or [is/was] Obama not a factor in your choice?

              Support   Opposition   Obama not a factor   No opinion
10/25/09 LV     14          15                70               *

12. (IF OPPOSITION IN Q11) Could you briefly explain to me why Obama [is/was] a factor in your vote for governor - what is the main reason?

                                           10/25/09
Too liberal/left                              11
Not trustworthy/do not trust him              11 
Budget deficit                                10
Socialism/Communism                           10
Dislike his policies/wrong direction          10
Health care reform                             7
Government/too much government                 7
He's a Democrat/I'm a Republican               5
Position on taxes                              4
Want to support a Republican/balance of power  4
Deeds too close to Obama/Pelosi/national Dems  4
Iraq/war in Iraq                               1
Afghanistan/war in Afghanistan                 *
Other                                         13
No opinion                                     4

13. Regardless of your vote for governor this year, in general do you think it is better for Virginia to have a governor who is from (the same) political party as the president, from (a different) one, or do you think that doesn't make much of a difference?

              Same   Different   No difference   No opinion
10/25/09 LV    16       13             71             *

14. Changing topics, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tim Kaine is handling his job as governor? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?

              -------- Approve --------   ------- Disapprove ------     No
              NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opinion
10/25/09 LV   58       23         35      38       17         21         4 
10/7/09  LV   60       25         36      37       19         19         2
9/17/09  LV   59       27         33      38       17         22         2
8/14/09  LV   51       22         29      45       20         25         4
8/14/09  RV   55       23         32      38       18         20         7 
8/14/09  All  56       21         34      36       18         18         8
9/21/08  RV   66                          25                             9
10/8/07  LV   66                          27                             7
10/8/07  All  63                          25                            12
10/12/06 LV   77                          19                             4

15. On another subject, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?

             -------- Approve --------   ------- Disapprove ------     No   
             NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opinion
10/25/09 LV  54       36         18      45        11        34         1  
10/25/09 RV  57       37         20      40        12        28         3  
10/7/09  LV  53       36         17      46        10        36         2
10/7/09  RV  58       37         21      39        11        28         3
9/17/09  LV  53       38         15      47        11        36         1
8/14/09  LV  47       32         15      51        10        41         2
8/14/09  RV  57       39         17      41        11        31         2

16. On another subject, would you favor or oppose an increase in state taxes to pay for new road and transit projects?

             Favor   Oppose   No opinion
10/25/09 LV   42       55          3
10/7/09 LV    42       55          3
8/14/09 LV    46       51          2
8/14/09       41       56          3

17. Do you favor or oppose the death penalty for persons convicted of murder? (*Asked of half sample.)

              --------- Favor ---------   -------- Oppose --------     No   
              NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly  opinion
10/25/09 LV   66       45         22      31       13         18        3 
6/3/07   All  64       NA         NA      30       NA         NA        5     
10/26/05 LV   72       NA         NA      25       NA         NA        2
9/9/05   LV*  75       NA         NA      23       NA         NA        2
9/9/05   RV*  76       NA         NA      22       NA         NA        2

18. Overall, given what you know about them, would you say you support or oppose the proposed changes to the health care system being developed by (Congress) and (the Obama administration)? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

              -------- Support --------   --------- Oppose --------     No   
              NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opinion
10/25/09 LV   43       29         14      53        9         44         4

19. Which comes closer to the way you feel: government reform of the nation's health care system (is necessary to control costs and expand coverage), or government action on health care (will do more harm than good)? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

              ------- Necessary -------   -- More harm than good --
              NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   No opinion
10/25/09 LV   48       35         13      49        7         42           3 
9/17/09  LV   52       39         12      46        7         39           3
8/14/09  LV   45       33         13      52        8         44           2
8/14/09       50       32         18      47       13         34           2

20. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or what? IF NOT DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN: Do you lean more towards the (Democratic Party) or (Republican Party)?

                                                                   --Non-Partisans--
                                                                   Lean   Lean   No
             Democrat  Republican  Independent  Other  No opinion  Dem.   Rep.  Lean
10/25/09 LV     31         30          34         4         1      12     19      8
10/25/09 RV     34         25          35         5         1      14     17     10
10/7/09  LV     31         30          36         2         1      13     20      6
9/17/09  LV     32         29          34         5         *      12     19      8 
9/17/09  RV     34         27          32         5         1      12     15     11 
9/17/09         33         25          33         7         2      12     14     16 
8/14/09  LV     27         34          34         4         1      11     20      8 
8/14/09  RV     31         29          35         4         1      13     17      9 
8/14/09         31         28          37         3         1      15     16     11 
10/25/08 LV     36         28          33         4         *      15     14      8 
10/25/08 RV     36         28          33         4         *      15     13      9 
10/25/08        35         26          31         6         1      14     12     12 
9/21/08  LV     33         28          34         5         1      15     16      8
9/21/08  RV     34         25          35         6         1      15     16     10
9/21/08         33         24          34         7         2      15     15     13
10/8/07  RV     32         29          34         4         1      15     13     11
10/8/07         30         27          38         4         1      18     13     11
6/3/07   RV     33         29          29         4         4      12     11     14
6/3/07          34         27          28         4         6      12     12     16
10/12/06 LV     33         32          32         3         *      14     12      9
10/26/05 LV     33         37          26         3         1      13     10      6
9/9/05   LV     34         37          25         4         *      12     13      5
9/9/05   RV     32         34          29         4         *      13     13      7
10/25/01 LV     31         37          26         5         1      10     12     10
8/23/01  LV     35         38          24         3         *      12     11      4
8/23/01  RV     32         33          29         5         1      15     12      8
10/26/00 LV     33         32          28         6         1      11     13     10
8/27/00  LV     30         36          29         5         1      11     13     10
8/27/00  RV     29         34          32         5         1      12     14     11
10/21/97 LV     31         32          31         5         1      12     14     11
9/16/97  LV     30         31          33         4         1      13     14     11
9/16/97  RV     28         31          35         4         1      14     14     17
6/23/94         29         29          32         8         2      12     15     18
9/28/93  RV     30         30          35         4         1      13     12     10
11/2/89  LV     33         32          31         3         1      NA     NA     NA

21. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Would you say your views on most political matters are liberal, moderate, or conservative?

                                                     Don't think in      
            Liberal    Moderate    Conservative    those terms (vol.)   No opinion
10/25/09 LV    20         39            39                  1                1
10/7/09  LV    20         41            38                  *                *
9/17/09  LV    20         44            36                  *                1
8/14/09  LV    20         37            41                  1                1
8/14/09  RV    21         42            35                  1                1
8/14/09        22         43            34                  1                1
10/25/08 LV    19         45            32                  2                2
10/25/08 RV    19         45            32                  2                2
9/21/08  LV    21         46            30                  2                1
9/21/08  RV    22         47            29                  2                1

22. Aside from weddings and funerals, how often do you attend religious services: more than once a week, once a week, once or twice a month, a few times a year, seldom or never?

              ------- Weekly ---------
                                        Once or twice  A few times  
              NET   >1/week   Once/week   per month      a year    Seldom   Never   No op.
10/25/09 LV   42      15         27          17            19        13        9      *  
10/7/09  LV   43      16         28          17            21        12        7      *
9/17/09  LV   44      16         28          18            18        11        9      *
8/14/09  LV   43      15         27          20            18        10        9      *
8/14/09  RV   39      14         25          21            20        11        9      *
8/14/09       37      13         24          20            19        12       11      *
10/25/08 LV   41      14         27          16            20        15        8      *
10/25/08 RV   40      13         26          17            20        15        8      *

23. Which of the following CATEGORIES best describes your total annual household income before taxes, from all sources?

             -------Less than $50k-------   --------More than $50k--------
             NET   <20k   20-35k   35-50k   NET   50-75k   75-100k   100k+
10/25/09 LV  31      7       9       14     67      16        17       34 
10/7/09  LV  29      6       8       14     70      18        17       35
9/17/09  LV  30      8       9       13     69      18        18       33
8/14/09  LV  26      6       7       13     72      22        16       33
8/14/09  RV  36      9      11       15     62      20        15       27
8/14/09      42     14      12       16     56      18        14       24
10/25/08 LV  36      9      11       16     62      19        14       28
10/25/08 RV  37     10      11       16     61      19        14       27
9/21/08  LV  31      7       8       15     68      19        18       31
9/21/08  RV  36     11       9       16     62      17        17       27
9/21/08      40     13      11       16     58      19        14       25

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