Washington Post News Poll
The Washington PostSunday, October 29, 2006 (Updated 10.31.06)
Post Analysis of This Poll: Back to the Story | Submit a Question to Metro Political Editor Bob Barnes
This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone October 22-26, 2006 among 1,003 randomly selected Maryland adults who reported they were currently registered to vote and absolutely certain to vote in the November 2006 election. Sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.
RV = Registered voter
LV = Registered voter who is absolutely certain to vote
*= less than 0.5 percent
Editor's Note: Party Breakdown
1. Are you registered to vote at your present address, or not?
Yes No No opinion
10/26/O6 72 27 1
6/25/06 75 25 *
2. Are you registered as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or something else?
Dem. Rep. Ind. Something else No opinion
10/26/06 RV 56 30 11 3 1
6/25/06 RV 51 29 14 4 1
3. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the upcoming election for governor and U.S. Senator this November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?
Don't think
Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote No
to vote vote 50/50 50/50 (vol.) op.
10/26/06 LV 100 0 0 0 0 0
10/26/06 RV 72 13 7 4 1 1
4. Would you say you are following this year's U.S. Senate and governor's races in the state of Maryland very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?
-------Closely------- --------Not closely------- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all op.
10/26/06 LV 91 49 42 9 8 2 *
10/24/02* LV 89 45 44 10 8 2 *
*"governor's race"
5/5a/6. As you may know, the candidates in November's election for U.S. Senate include (Ben Cardin, the Democrat), (Michael Steele, the Republican), and Kevin Zeese, from the Green Party. Suppose the election was held today. For whom would you vote?
Net Leaned Vote:
Other None No
Cardin Steele Zeese (vol.) (vol.) op.
10/26/06 LV 54 43 1 * * 1
6/25/06 LV 52 40 NA 0 * 7
6/25/06 RV 49 39 NA 0 1 8
7. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
10/26/06 Summary Table - Likely Voters, Leaned Cardin/Steele/Zeese Supporters
Definitely -- Chance change mind --- No
vote NET Good Unlikely opin.
a. Cardin 80 19 7 12 1
b. Steele 80 18 6 12 2
c. Zeese: sample size too small to analyze
8. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Thinking about his candidacy for U.S. Senate so far, how enthusiastic (are/were) you about (CANDIDATE)- very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
10/26/06 Summary Table - Likely Voters, Leaned Cardin/Steele/Zeese Supporters
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not Enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all op.
a. Cardin 85 36 49 14 11 3 1
b. Steele 92 47 46 6 4 2 2
c. Zeese: sample size too small to analyze
9/9a/10. As you may know, the candidates for Maryland governor are: (Martin O'Malley, the Democrat) and (Bob Ehrlich, the Republican). If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Net Leaned Vote:
Other Neither No
O'Malley Ehrlich (vol.) (vol.) op.
10/26/06 LV 55 45 0 1 *
6/25/06 LV 55 39 * 1 4
6/25/06 RV 51 40 * 3 5
11. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
10/26/06 Summary Table - Likely Voters, Leaned O'Malley/Ehrlich Supporters
Definitely -- Chance change mind --- No
vote NET Good Unlikely opin.
a. O'Malley 85 15 5 10 *
b. Ehrlich 85 15 5 10 *
12. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Thinking about his candidacy for governor so far, how enthusiastic (are/were) you about (CANDIDATE)- very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
10/26/06 Summary Table - Likely Voters, Leaned O'Malley/Ehrlich Supporters
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not Enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all op.
a. O'Malley 88 42 46 11 9 2 1
b. Ehrlich 93 54 39 6 5 1 1
13. Do you think things in the state of Maryland are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
Right direction Wrong track No opinion
10/26/06 LV 57 39 5
6/25/06 RV 44 50 6
1/7/04 RV 56 36 8
1/7/04 All 57 35 9
10/24/02 LV 42 51 7
10/22/98 LV 54 36 10
6/17/98 All 53 34 13
6/17/98 LV 56 32 11
12/19/93 All 33 56 11
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Ehrlich is handling his job as governor? Do you approve/disapprove STRONGLY or SOMEWHAT?
---------Approve--------- --------Disapprove------- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opin.
10/26/06 LV 55 30 25 42 19 23 3
6/25/06 RV 56 21 36 41 21 20 3
1/7/04 RV 64 23 41 29 17 12 8
1/7/04 All 62 21 42 28 17 11 10
15. How much would you say Ehrlich has accomplished in his first term as governor: a lot, a fair amount, some, or not much?
---A Lot/Fair Amount--- ----Some/Not Much---- No
NET A lot Fair amt. NET Some Not much opin.
10/26/06 LV 51 14 37 47 28 19 1
6/25/06 RV 48 8 40 51 30 21 2
1/7/04 RV* 49 6 43 47 29 18 4
1/7/04 All* 50 7 43 45 28 17 4
*In Jan. 04, asked "in his first year"
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove STRONGLY or SOMEWHAT?
---------Approve--------- --------Disapprove------- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opin.
10/26/06 LV 33 16 17 66 9 56 1
6/25/06 RV 33 17 15 67 11 55 1
1/7/04 RV 54 34 21 45 14 30 1
1/7/04 All 55 33 21 44 14 30 1
Compare to Post-ABC national:
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opin.
10/22/06 RV 40 24 16 58 14 44 2
All 37 21 16 60 15 45 3
17. Thinking again about the U.S. Senate race in Maryland. Of the following what would you say (is/was) the SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE in deciding how you (will vote/voted) in the U.S. Senate race - (the U.S. campaign against terrorism), (the war in Iraq), (the economy), (immigration), (ethics in government), (health care) or what?
Health Immi- Terror- Ethics No
Iraq Econ. care gration ism in govt. Other op.
10/26/06 LV 34 21 13 6 10 9 5 2
Compare to Post-ABC national:
Health Immi- Terror- Ethics No
Iraq Econ. care gration ism in govt. Other op.
10/22/06 RV 27 19 13 10 14 8 7 3
10/8/06 RV 26 23 13 9 14 10 3 2
18. And please tell me whether each of the following statements applies more to (Ben Cardin) or more to (Michael Steele).
10/26/06 Summary Table - Likely Voters
Both Neither No
Cardin Steele (vol.) (vol.) op.
a. He is honest and trustworthy 44 36 6 8 5
b. He understands the problems
of people like you 49 39 2 6 4
c. He is a strong leader 46 42 4 5 5
d. He shares your values 50 40 2 4 4
e. He has an appealing personality 27 59 5 5 4
f. He is open to the ideas of people
who are political moderates 48 39 3 3 7
19. Will/Was one reason for your vote for U.S. Senate (be) to express (support for) Bush, to express (opposition to) Bush, or is Bush not a factor in your choice?
Support Opposition Not a factor No opinion
10/26/06 LV 7 30 62 1
Compare to Post-ABC national:
Support Opposition Not a factor No opinion
10/22/06 RV 17 31 50 2
10/8/06 RV 18 35 47 1
20. And on the Maryland governor's race: Which of the following issues do you think is the biggest problem facing the state of Maryland these days, the one you want the next governor to work hardest on: (crime), (taxes), (the state economy), (public education), (transportation), or (growth and development)?
10/26/06 LV 6/25/06 RV
Crime 18 20
Taxes 7 12
The state economy 16 13
Public education 37 35
Transportation 7 7
Growth and development 11 9
Other 3 3
No opinion 1 1
21. Please tell me whether each of the following statements applies more to (Martin O'Malley) or more to (Bob Ehrlich).
10/26/06 Summary Table - Likely Voters
Both Neither No
O'Malley Ehrlich (vol.) (vol.) op.
a. He is honest and trustworthy 42 41 5 8 4
b. He understands the problems
of people like you 52 38 2 5 3
c. He is a strong leader 44 45 6 3 3
d. He has a vision for the state's
future 46 42 6 3 3
22. And which candidate, (O'Malley) or (Ehrlich), do you trust to do a better job on each of these issues?
10/26/06 Summary Table - Likely Voters
Both Neither No
O'Malley Ehrlich (vol.) (vol.) op.
a. Working effectively with the
State legislature 61 33 2 2 3
b. Crime 46 45 2 4 4
c. Taxes 47 45 1 3 4
d. Public education 50 43 2 3 2
e. The state economy 46 48 1 2 3
23. Will/Was one reason for your vote for governor (be) to express (support for) Bush, to express (opposition to) Bush, or is Bush not a factor in your choice?
Support Opposition Not a factor No opinion
10/26/06 LV 5 19 75 *
24. I am going to read you a list of names. For each, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person, or perhaps you don't know enough to say.
10/26/06 Summary Table - Likely Voters
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
a. Bob Ehrlich 56 40 5
b. Michael Steele 56 35 9
c. Martin O'Malley 62 29 8
d. Ben Cardin 60 27 13
e. Kristen Cox 29 10 60
f. Anthony Brown 25 9 66
Trend where available:
a. Bob Ehrlich
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
10/26/06 LV 56 40 5
6/25/06 RV 55 38 7
1/7/04 RV 68 18 14
1/7/04 All 66 17 17
b. Michael Steele
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
10/26/06 LV 56 35 9
6/25/06 RV 51 26 23
1/7/04 RV 42 9 49
1/7/04 All 38 9 53
c. Martin O'Malley
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
10/26/06 LV 62 29 8
6/25/06 RV 51 30 19
1/7/04 RV 54 12 34
1/7/04 All 50 12 38
d. Ben Cardin
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
10/26/06 LV 60 27 13
6/25/06 RV 39 12 49
e,f. No trend.
25. From what you have seen, heard or read, what is your impression of how things are going in Baltimore: very well, fairly well, not too well, or not well at all?
--------Well------- ---------Not Well--------- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opin.
10/26/06 LV 49 4 45 46 29 18 4
6/25/06 RV 49 3 46 44 28 16 7
26. Is your impression that Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley has made things (better) in Baltimore, made things (worse), or hasn't he really changed things there?
Hasn't really No
Better Worse changed things opin.
10/26/06 LV 44 9 39 8
6/25/06 RV 41 11 40 9
27. All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not? Do you feel that way STRONGLY or SOMEWHAT?
-----Worth fighting------ ----Not worth fighting--- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly op.
10/26/06 LV 30 20 10 68 9 59 1
6/25/06 RV 36 23 13 63 11 52 1
Compare to Post-ABC national:
----- Worth fighting ---- --- Not worth fighting -- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly op.
10/22/06 RV 40 30 11 57 10 47 2
All 40 28 12 57 11 47 2
28. If control of the Congress switched from the Republicans to the Democrats after next month's election, do you think that would be a good thing, a bad thing, or wouldn't it make any difference?
Good Bad No difference No opinion
10/26/06 LV 53 21 24 2
Compare to Post-ABC national:
Good Bad No difference No opinion
10/22/06 RV 47 23 27 2
All 45 21 32 3
29. How confident are you that your own vote in this election will be counted accurately? Very confident, somewhat confident, not very confident or not at all confident.
-----Confident---- -----Not confident----- No
NET Very Smwt. NET Not very At all opin.
10/22/06 LV 86 45 41 14 9 4 *
30. Do you think the change to electronic voting in the state of Maryland makes things (better), makes things (worse), or does not make much difference in how accurately votes are counted?
No No
Better Worse difference opin.
10/22/06 LV 35 27 35 3
31. Would you support or oppose a plan to allow early voting in the state of Maryland in the week leading up to Election Day at select locations?
Support Oppose No opinion
10/22/06 RV 63 34 4
32. Generally speaking, do you think the growing numbers of immigrants from other countries has been (good) for your community, (bad) for your community, or hasn't it made much difference?
Hasn't made No immigrants coming to No
Good Bad much difference my community (vol.) op.
10/22/06 LV 26 32 39 * 3
6/25/06 RV 26 29 41 * 3
33. Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?
------- Legal ------- ------ Illegal ------
All Most Most All No
NET cases cases NET cases cases opin.
10/26/06 LV 63 23 39 33 21 12 4
6/25/06 RV 63 22 40 35 24 11 3
10/24/02 LV 63 25 38 33 21 12 5
Editor's Note: According to the latest data from the Maryland State Board of Elections, 55 percent of voters in the state are registered as Democrats, 29 percent as Republicans. For the complete report on registration visit the Maryland State Board of Elections.
