Washington Post News Poll

The Washington Post
Sunday, October 29, 2006 (Updated 10.31.06)

Post Analysis of This Poll: Back to the Story  |  Submit a Question to Metro Political Editor Bob Barnes

This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone October 22-26, 2006 among 1,003 randomly selected Maryland adults who reported they were currently registered to vote and absolutely certain to vote in the November 2006 election. Sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.

RV = Registered voter
LV = Registered voter who is absolutely certain to vote

*= less than 0.5 percent

Editor's Note: Party Breakdown

1. Are you registered to vote at your present address, or not?

            Yes     No     No opinion						
10/26/O6    72      27          1  
6/25/06     75      25          *  

2. Are you registered as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or something else?


             Dem.     Rep.     Ind.     Something else     No opinion
10/26/06 RV   56       30       11             3                1 
6/25/06  RV   51       29       14             4                1 

3. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the upcoming election for governor and U.S. Senator this November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

                                                    Don't think 
             Certain  Probably  Chances  Less than   will vote   No    
             to vote    vote     50/50     50/50       (vol.)    op.
10/26/06 LV   100        0         0         0           0        0
10/26/06 RV    72       13         7         4           1        1

4. Would you say you are following this year's U.S. Senate and governor's races in the state of Maryland very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?

               -------Closely-------     --------Not closely-------     No 
               NET    Very    Fairly     NET   Not too   Not at all     op.
10/26/06  LV   91      49       42        9        8          2          * 
10/24/02* LV   89      45       44       10        8          2         *
*"governor's race"

5/5a/6. As you may know, the candidates in November's election for U.S. Senate include (Ben Cardin, the Democrat), (Michael Steele, the Republican), and Kevin Zeese, from the Green Party. Suppose the election was held today. For whom would you vote?

Net Leaned Vote:
                                        Other     None    No
             Cardin   Steele    Zeese   (vol.)   (vol.)   op.   
10/26/06 LV    54       43        1       *         *      1
6/25/06  LV    52       40       NA       0         *      7
6/25/06  RV    49       39       NA       0         1      8

7. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?

10/26/06 Summary Table - Likely Voters, Leaned Cardin/Steele/Zeese Supporters

               Definitely     -- Chance change mind ---      No 
                  vote        NET     Good     Unlikely     opin.
a. Cardin          80         19        7         12          1
b. Steele          80         18        6         12          2           
c. Zeese: sample size too small to analyze

8. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Thinking about his candidacy for U.S. Senate so far, how enthusiastic (are/were) you about (CANDIDATE)- very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?

10/26/06 Summary Table - Likely Voters, Leaned Cardin/Steele/Zeese Supporters

              --- Enthusiastic --    ---- Not Enthusiastic ----     No
              NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too   Not at all     op.
a. Cardin     85     36      49      14       11          3          1
b. Steele     92     47      46       6        4          2          2
c. Zeese: sample size too small to analyze

9/9a/10. As you may know, the candidates for Maryland governor are: (Martin O'Malley, the Democrat) and (Bob Ehrlich, the Republican). If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Net Leaned Vote:
                                  Other    Neither   No
              O'Malley  Ehrlich   (vol.)    (vol.)   op.
10/26/06 LV      55       45        0         1       *
6/25/06  LV      55       39        *         1       4
6/25/06  RV      51       40        *         3       5

11. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?

10/26/06 Summary Table - Likely Voters, Leaned O'Malley/Ehrlich Supporters

               Definitely     -- Chance change mind ---      No 
                  vote        NET     Good     Unlikely     opin.
a. O'Malley        85         15        5         10         *
b. Ehrlich         85         15        5         10         *           

12. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Thinking about his candidacy for governor so far, how enthusiastic (are/were) you about (CANDIDATE)- very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?

10/26/06 Summary Table - Likely Voters, Leaned O'Malley/Ehrlich Supporters

              --- Enthusiastic --    ---- Not Enthusiastic ----     No
              NET   Very   Fairly    NET   Not too   Not at all     op.
a. O'Malley   88     42      46      11        9          2          1
b. Ehrlich    93     54      39       6        5          1          1

13. Do you think things in the state of Maryland are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

                 Right direction     Wrong track     No opinion
10/26/06 LV            57                39                5
6/25/06  RV            44                50                6
1/7/04   RV            56                36                8 
1/7/04   All           57                35                9 
10/24/02 LV            42                51                7
10/22/98 LV            54                36               10
6/17/98  All           53                34               13
6/17/98  LV            56                32               11
12/19/93 All           33                56               11

14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Ehrlich is handling his job as governor? Do you approve/disapprove STRONGLY or SOMEWHAT?

             ---------Approve---------   --------Disapprove-------    No   
             NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opin. 
10/26/06 LV  55       30         25      42       19         23        3
6/25/06  RV  56       21         36      41       21         20        3
1/7/04   RV  64       23         41      29       17         12        8
1/7/04   All 62       21         42      28       17         11       10    

15. How much would you say Ehrlich has accomplished in his first term as governor: a lot, a fair amount, some, or not much?

              ---A Lot/Fair Amount---     ----Some/Not Much----      No
              NET   A lot   Fair amt.     NET   Some   Not much     opin.
10/26/06 LV   51      14       37         47     28       19          1
6/25/06  RV   48       8       40         51     30       21          2
1/7/04   RV*  49       6       43         47     29       18          4
1/7/04   All* 50       7       43         45     28       17          4
*In Jan. 04, asked "in his first year"

16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove STRONGLY or SOMEWHAT?

             ---------Approve---------   --------Disapprove-------    No   
             NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opin. 
10/26/06 LV  33       16         17      66        9         56        1
6/25/06  RV  33       17         15      67       11         55        1
1/7/04   RV  54       34         21      45       14         30        1
1/7/04   All 55       33         21      44       14         30        1

Compare to Post-ABC national:

             -------- Approve --------   ------- Disapprove ------    No   
             NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opin.
10/22/06 RV  40       24         16      58       14         44        2  
         All 37       21         16      60       15         45        3  

17. Thinking again about the U.S. Senate race in Maryland. Of the following what would you say (is/was) the SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE in deciding how you (will vote/voted) in the U.S. Senate race - (the U.S. campaign against terrorism), (the war in Iraq), (the economy), (immigration), (ethics in government), (health care) or what?


                        Health   Immi-   Terror-   Ethics           No 
            Iraq  Econ.  care   gration    ism    in govt.  Other   op.
10/26/06 LV  34    21     13       6        10       9        5      2 

Compare to Post-ABC national:

                        Health   Immi-   Terror-   Ethics           No 
            Iraq  Econ.  care   gration    ism    in govt.  Other   op.
10/22/06 RV  27    19     13      10        14       8        7      3 
10/8/06  RV  26    23     13       9        14      10        3      2 

18. And please tell me whether each of the following statements applies more to (Ben Cardin) or more to (Michael Steele).

10/26/06 Summary Table - Likely Voters
                                                        Both  Neither  No
                                       Cardin  Steele  (vol.)  (vol.)  op.
a. He is honest and trustworthy          44      36       6      8      5
b. He understands the problems  
   of people like you                    49      39       2      6      4
c. He is a strong leader                 46      42       4      5      5
d. He shares your values                 50      40       2      4      4
e. He has an appealing personality       27      59       5      5      4
f. He is open to the ideas of people 
   who are political moderates           48      39       3      3      7

19. Will/Was one reason for your vote for U.S. Senate (be) to express (support for) Bush, to express (opposition to) Bush, or is Bush not a factor in your choice?


                Support    Opposition    Not a factor    No opinion
10/26/06 LV         7           30             62               1

Compare to Post-ABC national:

                Support    Opposition    Not a factor    No opinion
10/22/06 RV        17           31             50               2
10/8/06  RV        18           35             47               1

20. And on the Maryland governor's race: Which of the following issues do you think is the biggest problem facing the state of Maryland these days, the one you want the next governor to work hardest on: (crime), (taxes), (the state economy), (public education), (transportation), or (growth and development)?

                            10/26/06 LV    6/25/06 RV
Crime                           18             20
Taxes                            7             12
The state economy               16             13
Public education                37             35  
Transportation                   7              7
Growth and development          11              9
Other                            3              3
No opinion                       1              1

21. Please tell me whether each of the following statements applies more to (Martin O'Malley) or more to (Bob Ehrlich).

10/26/06 Summary Table - Likely Voters
                                                           Both   Neither  No
                                      O'Malley  Ehrlich   (vol.)   (vol.)  op.
a. He is honest and trustworthy          42        41        5       8      4
b. He understands the problems  
   of people like you                    52        38        2       5      3
c. He is a strong leader                 44        45        6       3      3
d. He has a vision for the state's  
   future                                46        42        6       3      3

22. And which candidate, (O'Malley) or (Ehrlich), do you trust to do a better job on each of these issues?

10/26/06 Summary Table - Likely Voters
                                                           Both   Neither  No
                                       O'Malley  Ehrlich  (vol.)   (vol.)  op.
a. Working effectively with the 
   State legislature                      61        33       2       2      3
b. Crime                                  46        45       2       4      4
c. Taxes                                  47        45       1       3      4
d. Public education                       50        43       2       3      2
e. The state economy                      46        48       1       2      3

23. Will/Was one reason for your vote for governor (be) to express (support for) Bush, to express (opposition to) Bush, or is Bush not a factor in your choice?


                Support    Opposition    Not a factor    No opinion
10/26/06 LV        5           19             75               *

24. I am going to read you a list of names. For each, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person, or perhaps you don't know enough to say.

 10/26/06 Summary Table - Likely Voters

                        Favorable     Unfavorable     No opinion
a. Bob Ehrlich             56             40               5
b. Michael Steele          56             35               9
c. Martin O'Malley         62             29               8
d. Ben Cardin              60             27              13
e. Kristen Cox             29             10              60
f. Anthony Brown           25              9              66

Trend where available:

a. Bob Ehrlich

            Favorable     Unfavorable     No opinion
10/26/06 LV    56              40               5
6/25/06  RV    55              38               7
1/7/04   RV    68              18              14
1/7/04   All   66              17              17

b. Michael Steele

            Favorable     Unfavorable     No opinion
10/26/06 LV    56              35               9
6/25/06  RV    51              26              23
1/7/04   RV    42               9              49
1/7/04   All   38               9              53

c. Martin O'Malley

            Favorable     Unfavorable     No opinion
10/26/06 LV    62              29               8
6/25/06  RV    51              30              19
1/7/04   RV    54              12              34
1/7/04   All   50              12              38

d. Ben Cardin
            Favorable     Unfavorable     No opinion
10/26/06 LV    60              27              13
6/25/06  RV    39              12              49

e,f. No trend. 

25. From what you have seen, heard or read, what is your impression of how things are going in Baltimore: very well, fairly well, not too well, or not well at all?


              --------Well-------      ---------Not Well---------      No
              NET   Very   Fairly      NET   Not too   Not at all     opin.
10/26/06 LV   49      4      45        46       29         18           4
6/25/06  RV   49      3      46        44       28         16           7

26. Is your impression that Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley has made things (better) in Baltimore, made things (worse), or hasn't he really changed things there?

 
                                   Hasn't really       No
              Better     Worse     changed things     opin.
10/26/06 LV     44         9             39             8  
6/25/06  RV     41        11             40             9  

27. All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not? Do you feel that way STRONGLY or SOMEWHAT?



              -----Worth fighting------     ----Not worth fighting---      No     
              NET   Strongly   Somewhat     NET   Somewhat   Strongly      op. 
10/26/06 LV   30       20         10        68        9         59          1    
6/25/06  RV   36       23         13        63       11         52          1    

Compare to Post-ABC national:

              ----- Worth fighting ----     --- Not worth fighting --    No     
              NET   Strongly   Somewhat     NET   Somewhat   Strongly    op. 
10/22/06 RV   40       30         11        57       10         47        2
         All  40       28         12        57       11         47        2

28. If control of the Congress switched from the Republicans to the Democrats after next month's election, do you think that would be a good thing, a bad thing, or wouldn't it make any difference?

                 Good     Bad     No difference     No opinion
10/26/06 LV       53       21           24                2

Compare to Post-ABC national:

                 Good     Bad     No difference     No opinion
10/22/06 RV       47       23           27                2
         All      45       21           32                3

29. How confident are you that your own vote in this election will be counted accurately? Very confident, somewhat confident, not very confident or not at all confident.

              -----Confident----   -----Not confident-----    No
              NET   Very   Smwt.   NET   Not very   At all   opin.
10/22/06 LV   86     45     41     14        9         4       *

30. Do you think the change to electronic voting in the state of Maryland makes things (better), makes things (worse), or does not make much difference in how accurately votes are counted?

                                         No          No
                Better     Worse     difference     opin.
10/22/06 LV       35         27          35           3

31. Would you support or oppose a plan to allow early voting in the state of Maryland in the week leading up to Election Day at select locations?

             Support     Oppose     No opinion
10/22/06 RV     63         34             4

32. Generally speaking, do you think the growing numbers of immigrants from other countries has been (good) for your community, (bad) for your community, or hasn't it made much difference?


                              Hasn't made     No immigrants coming to    No 
               Good   Bad   much difference      my community (vol.)     op.
10/22/06 LV     26     32          39                    *                3
6/25/06  RV     26     29          41                    *                3

33. Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?

             ------- Legal -------    ------ Illegal ------                      
                     All     Most            Most      All     No                 
             NET    cases    cases    NET    cases    cases   opin.  
10/26/06 LV  63      23       39      33      21       12       4
6/25/06  RV  63      22       40      35      24       11       3
10/24/02 LV  63      25       38      33      21       12       5

Editor's Note: According to the latest data from the Maryland State Board of Elections, 55 percent of voters in the state are registered as Democrats, 29 percent as Republicans. For the complete report on registration visit the Maryland State Board of Elections.


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