Washington Post-ABC News Poll
The Washington PostSunday, Nov. 5, 2006
| This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone November 1-4, 2006, among a random national sample of 1,205 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa. *= less than 0.5 percent 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opin.
11/4/06 RV 43 27 16 55 10 45 2
All 40 24 16 57 12 46 2
10/22/06 RV 40 24 16 58 14 44 2
All 37 21 16 60 15 45 3
10/8/06 39 23 16 60 12 48 1
9/7/06 42 24 18 55 12 43 3
8/6/06 40 23 17 58 12 46 2
6/25/06 38 20 18 60 12 48 2
5/15/06 33 17 16 65 18 47 2
4/9/06 38 20 18 60 13 47 1
3/5/06 41 24 17 58 14 44 1
1/26/06 42 25 18 56 14 42 2
1/8/06 46 29 17 52 13 39 2
12/18/05 47 29 17 52 12 40 1
11/2/05 39 20 18 60 13 47 1
10/29/05 39 22 17 58 13 45 3
9/11/05 42 27 15 57 12 45 1
8/28/05 45 27 18 53 12 41 2
6/26/05 48 27 21 51 11 40 1
6/5/05 48 27 21 52 14 38 1
4/24/05 47 25 22 50 13 38 3
3/13/05 50 31 19 48 11 37 3
1/31/05 50 34 15 45 11 34 5
1/16/05 52 33 19 46 11 35 2
12/19/04 48 27 21 49 12 38 2
10/20/04 50 30 20 46 11 35 4
10/17/04 LV 54 35 19 45 9 36 2
10/16/04 LV 54 35 19 44 10 34 2
10/15/04 LV 54 35 19 44 10 34 2
10/3/04 LV 53 36 17 46 11 34 1
9/26/04 50 33 18 45 13 32 5
9/8/04 52 35 17 43 11 32 5
8/29/04 50 31 19 47 13 34 3
8/1/04 47 28 18 49 13 36 5
7/25/04 50 32 19 47 13 34 3
7/11/04 48 31 17 50 11 39 2
6/20/04 47 30 17 51 13 39 1
5/23/04 47 31 17 50 14 36 3
4/18/04 51 33 18 47 13 34 1
3/7/04 50 32 18 48 12 36 2
2/11/04 50 30 21 47 14 34 2
1/18/04 58 35 24 40 9 30 2
12/21/03 59 39 21 38 15 23 3
12/14/03 57 37 20 39 10 29 5
12/7/03 53 32 21 40 13 27 7
11/16/03 57 34 23 39 11 28 4
10/29/03 56 30 26 42 13 29 2
10/13/03 53 33 20 43 13 29 4
9/30/03 54 34 20 44 15 29 2
9/13/03 58 35 23 40 14 27 2
9/7/03 56 34 22 41 13 28 4
8/11/03 59 37 22 37 14 23 4
7/10/03 59 35 24 38 13 25 3
6/22/03 68 45 23 29 11 18 4
4/30/03 71 50 22 26 17 9 3
4/16/03 74 52 22 23 9 14 3
4/9/03 77 58 19 20 6 14 4
4/3/03 71 54 16 25 7 19 4
3/23/03 68 NA NA 27 NA NA 4
3/20/03 67 NA NA 28 NA NA 5
3/2/03 62 38 23 35 13 22 4
2/23/03 60 NA NA 34 NA NA 6
2/9/03 64 42 21 34 14 20 3
2/1/03 62 41 21 34 13 22 4
1/28/03 62 43 19 36 13 23 2
1/27/03 59 39 21 37 15 22 4
1/20/03 59 36 23 38 16 22 2
12/15/02 66 37 28 32 12 20 2
11/4/02 LV 67 45 23 31 12 20 1
11/3/02 LV 67 45 22 32 12 20 1
11/2/02 LV 67 47 20 32 9 23 1
10/27/02 67 39 28 29 13 16 4
9/26/02 67 42 25 30 12 18 3
9/8/02 71 42 28 27 12 15 3
7/28/02 69 39 31 28 14 14 3
7/15/02 72 42 31 25 12 13 2
6/17/02 74 42 32 22 9 13 4
6/9/02 77 41 36 20 9 11 3
5/19/02 76 48 28 22 8 13 3
4/21/02 78 47 31 20 9 10 2
3/28/02 79 49 30 18 8 10 3
3/10/02 82 52 30 16 9 7 2
1/27/02 83 56 27 14 7 7 3
12/19/01 86 64 22 12 6 6 2
11/27/01 89 69 21 9 4 5 1
11/6/01 89 65 24 9 5 4 2
10/9/01 92 76 16 6 3 3 1
9/27/01 90 70 20 6 3 3 4
9/13/01 86 63 23 12 5 6 2
9/9/01 55 26 29 41 20 22 3
8/12/01 61 28 33 31 14 17 8
7/30/01 59 28 30 38 17 22 3
6/3/01 55 27 28 40 18 22 6
4/22/01 63 33 30 32 16 16 5
3/25/01 58 NA NA 33 NA NA 8
2/25/01 55 NA NA 23 NA NA 22
2. Thinking about next week's election for the U.S. House and some U.S. Senate and governor seats, are you following the election very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely or not closely at all?
------- Closely ------- ------- Not closely ------ No
NET Very Somewhat NET Not too Not at all op.
11/4/06 RV 80 38 42 20 13 7 *
10/22/06 RV 78 29 50 22 13 8 *
10/8/06 RV 75 26 49 25 17 8 0
9/7/06 RV 66 20 46 34 20 14 *
8/6/06 RV 66 21 45 34 23 11 *
5/15/06 RV 60 20 40 39 23 16 *
All 57 18 38 43 24 19 *
3. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in next week's Congressional election: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?
Don't think Already
Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote voted No
to vote vote 50/50 50/50 (vol.) (vol.) op.
11/4/06 RV 70 11 7 4 2 5 *
10/22/06 RV 75 14 7 3 * 1 2
3a. (IF ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN TO VOTE) Have you already voted by absentee ballot or early voting, or not?
Yes No No opinion
11/4/06 RV 10 90 *
4. (and 4a) If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for (the Democratic candidate) or (the Republican candidate) in your congressional district? (IF OTHER, NEITHER, DK, REF) Would you lean toward the (Democratic candidate) or toward the (Republican candidate)? (IF ALREADY VOTED) Did you vote for (the Democratic candidate) or (the Republican candidate) in your congressional district?
Net Leaned Vote:
Dem Rep Other Neither Will not No
cand. cand. (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin.
11/4/06 LV 51 45 1 1 * 2
11/4/06 RV 53 43 1 1 * 3
10/22/06 LV 55 41 0 1 * 3
10/22/06 RV 54 41 * 1 * 3
10/8/06 RV 54 41 * 1 1 3
9/7/06 RV 50 42 * 3 2 4
8/6/06 RV 52 39 * 2 1 5
6/25/06 RV 52 39 1 3 1 4
All 52 38 1 2 2 5
5/15/06 RV 52 40 1 3 1 4
All 53 38 1 3 1 4
4/9/06 RV 55 40 * 2 * 3
All 54 40 * 2 1 4
1/26/06 RV 54 38 1 3 1 5
All 55 36 1 3 1 4
12/18/05 RV 51 41 1 3 1 4
All 50 41 1 3 1 4
11/2/05 RV 52 37 1 4 2 6
All 53 36 1 3 2 5
11/4/02 LV 48 48 1 1 0 2
11/3/02 LV 48 48 * 1 0 2
11/2/02 LV 50 49 * 1 0 2
10/27/02 LV 47 49 1 1 0 3
9/26/02 LV 49 47 1 2 0 2
RV 47 44 2 3 2 3
All 46 42 2 2 5 3
7/15/02 RV 47 46 1 1 1 4
All 47 45 1 1 1 4
1/27/02* RV 43 50 NA 2 1 5
9/6/00 RV 49 42 2 1 6
7/23/00 RV 46 45 3 1 5
2/27/00 RV 45 46 2 1 5
10/31/99 RV 50 43 3 1 3
9/2/99 RV 48 44 3 * 5
3/14/99 RV 50 41 2 1 6
2/14/99 RV 48 41 3 1 7
1/30/99 RV 49 39 8 1 3
11/1/98 RV 51 43 4 * 2
10/25/98 RV 48 43 3 1 4
10/18/98 RV 49 44 3 1 4
9/28/98 RV 49 44 2 * 4
8/21/98 RV 48 45 3 1 3
7/12/98 RV 47 45 2 * 6
1/31/98 RV 49 40 2 1 8
1/19/98 RV 47 44 3 1 5
10/8/96 RV 51 41 2 1 5
9/29/96 RV 48 41 3 1 7
9/22/96 RV 50 43 2 1 4
9/15/96 RV 49 45 1 1 4
9/4/96 RV 48 44 3 * 5
8/29/96 RV 53 39 3 1 5
8/28/96 RV 51 40 3 1 5
8/27/96 RV 51 41 3 0 5
8/26/96 RV 51 41 3 0 5
8/25/96 RV 48 43 3 1 6
8/24/96 RV 47 43 2 1 6
8/19/96 RV 49 42 3 0 6
8/18/96 RV 45 46 3 0 6
8/15/96 RV 46 43 4 1 5
8/14/96 RV 48 42 3 1 6
8/13/96 RV 49 43 3 0 5
8/12/96 RV 49 42 3 1 5
8/11/96 RV 49 40 4 1 6
8/10/96 RV 49 41 4 1 5
8/4/96 RV 48 45 2 1 4
6/30/96 RV 49 44 3 * 3
5/22/96 RV 52 41 3 1 3
3/10/96 RV 51 43 2 * 4
1/21/96 RV 52 43 3 1 1
10/1/95 RV 49 44 3 * 3
11/6/94 RV 47 42 5 2 5
10/31/94 RV 48 44 4 1 3
10/23/94 RV 50 45 2 1 2
10/9/94 RV 46 47 3 2 2
9/11/94 RV 50 45 1 1 4
8/7/94 RV 49 42 4 1 4
2/27/94 RV 50 40 8 1 2
10/21/91 RV 51 41 4 * 4
7/28/91 RV 49 41 6 * 3
6/2/91 RV 48 42 4 1 5
11/4/90 RV 51 41 5 * 3
10/14/90 RV 50 41 5 * 3
9/9/90 RV 47 46 3 * 3
7/24/90 RV 51 41 4 1 4
5/21/90 RV 47 45 5 1 2
9/21-10/10/88 RV 52 41 2 1 4
9/19/88 RV 51 39 3 1 6
6/22/85 RV 48 44 5 * 3
10/16/84 RV 52 44 2 NA 5
9/11/84 RV 53 45 2 NA 1
7/8/84 RV 58 40 2 NA 1
10/27/82 RV 58 39 NA NA 3
10/11/82 RV 55 36 NA NA 9
9/13/82 RV 58 36 NA NA 6
11/22/81 RV 53 41 " NA NA 7
*1/27/02 and previous: No "other candidate" option recorded
5. (IF ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN TO VOTE OR ALREADY VOTED) As you know, this is a mid-term election, with no presidential contest. Is voting in mid-term elections something you do always, nearly always, usually, or just sometimes?
Nearly Just Never First chance No
Always always Usually sometimes (vol.) to vote (vol.) op.
11/4/06 RV 71 17 7 4 1 1 0
6. Which of the following (will be/was) the SINGLE MOST important issue in your vote for Congress this year: (the U.S campaign against terrorism), (the war in Iraq), (the economy), (immigration), (ethics in government), (health care) or something else?
Health Immi- Terror- Ethics No
Iraq Econ. care gration ism in govt. Other op.
11/4/06 RV 31 21 12 9 11 6 7 2
10/22/06 RV 27 19 13 10 14 8 7 3
10/8/06 RV 26 23 13 9 14 10 3 2
Compare to:
Health Immi- Terror- Gas No
Iraq Econ. care gration ism Prices Other op.
9/7/06 RV 21 22 13 11 16 5 9 3
8/6/06 RV 21 21 14 10 11 15 7 1
6/25/06 RV 23 24 15 13 9 8 6 2
All 24 23 14 13 8 9 6 2
7. Do you think things in this country (are generally going in the right direction) or do you feel things (have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track)?
Right Wrong No
direction track opin.
11/4/06 RV 39 59 2
10/22/06 RV 32 66 2
All 30 68 2
10/8/06 32 66 2
5/15/06 29 69 2
11/2/05 30 68 2
10/24/04 LV 41 55 4
4/18/04 42 57 1
4/30/03 52 46 2
9/26/02 43 53 4
2/21/02 54 42 4
2/14/99 55 41 4
11/1/98 55 43 2
11/1/98 LV 55 44 1
8/21/98 57 40 4
7/12/98 50 45 6
4/4/98 55 41 4
1/31/98 61 34 5
1/30/98 61 34 5
1/19/98 44 50 6
8/27/97 39 57 4
6/8/97 37 60 3
3/9/97 34 62 4
10/17/96 RV 40 55 5
10/16/96 RV 42 53 5
10/15/96 RV 43 52 5
10/14/96 RV 44 51 5
10/13/96 RV 44 51 5
9/04/96 RV 40 54 6
8/21/96 28 67 5
6/30/96 26 70 5
3/17/96 27 70 3
1/21/96 27 66 6
1/3/96 21 77 3
4/5/95 23 73 3
1/4/95 27 68 6
10/31/94 27 69 4
7/20/94 26 70 4
3/27/94 28 69 3
1/23/94 31 60 10
11/14/93 25 69 6
8/8/93 26 71 3
6/20/93 26 71 3
4/26/93 27 71 2
3/11/93 36 57 7
2/28/93 37 59 4
1/17/93 31 63 6
12/14/92 35 60 5
10/27/92 RV 22 76 2
10/4/92 RV 18 78 4
6/7/92 14 83 3
4/9/92 16 81 3
3/11/92 18 79 4
1/15/92 19 78 3
11/10/91 24 72 4
10/29/91 26 71 3
8/27/91 31 60 9
7/28/91 30 67 3
6/2/91 39 57 4
4/9/91 42 51 7
2/26/91 58 39 3
1/27/91 49 48 4
10/14/90 19 79 2
9/9/90 36 60 4
8/20/90 35 60 5
7/24/90 37 60 2
5/21/90 39 60 2
3/26/90 44 53 2
2/4/90 49 48 3
1/16/90 48 49 3
5/23/89 42 55 3
3/16/89 46 52 2
1/16/89 LV 51 46 3
10/25/88 RV 49 46 6
9/27/88 48 44 8
7/11/88 40 56 4
5/25/88 35 59 6
3/21/88 40 56 4
1/23/88 39 59 2
12/13/87 49 47 4
12/2/87 35 61 4
9/23/87 43 54 4
6/29/87 35 62 3
4/13/87 37 60 3
3/9/87 38 58 4
1/18/87 39 56 5
9/8/86 50 48 2
1/26/86 45 47 8
7/29/85 52 43 6
1/16/85 59 36 4
5/22/84 47 48 5
12/13/83 43 51 6
11/7/83 51 44 5
4/12/83 41 54 4
3/2/83 43 53 3
1/25/83 58 39 3
1/25/83 43 52 4
10/11/82 35 57 8
1/30/82 39 56 5
2/80* 20 70 10
2/78 34 53 13
2/77 41 44 14
10/75 19 71 9
10/74 15 75 11
10/73 16 74 10
*2/80 and previous: Roper
8. (IF WRONG TRACK) What's the main reason you feel that way?
11/4/06 RV 11/2/05
Economy, jobs, gas prices, prices,
low income, debt, finances 16 30
War in Iraq 31 21
Problems with Bush 11 15
Distrust of politicians, government,
Washington, ethics in government/
corruption 12 7
Problems too big 3 6
Moral decline/lack of religious faith 4 6
Environmental problems/global warming 1 3
Problems with Republicans/conservatives
(not specifically Bush) 3 2
Terrorism/threat of terrorism 2 1
Health care 2 1
Illegal immigrants 2 1
Problems/issues not being resolved 2 1
Ignoring domestic issues 1 1
Everything 1 1
Problems with Democrats/liberals 1 *
Foreign policy * *
Other 6 4
No opinion 3 *
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is doing its job? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------ No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opin.
11/4/06 RV 36 7 29 60 25 35 4
10/22/06 RV 31 5 26 65 26 39 4
All 31 5 25 65 27 38 4
10/8/06 32 5 27 66 29 37 2
9/7/06 40 55 5
8/6/06 36 60 4
5/15/06 33 63 4
4/9/06 35 62 3
3/5/06 36 62 3
1/26/06 43 53 4
1/8/06 41 55 5
12/18/05 43 53 4
11/2/05 37 59 4
8/28/05 37 59 4
6/5/05 41 54 4
10/29/03 40 52 9
4/30/03 57 37 6
9/26/02 51 43 6
7/15/02 57 36 7
2/21/02 57 39 4
1/27/02 58 35 7
12/19/01 59 34 7
9/9/01 45 48 7
7/30/01 48 48 4
4/22/01 58 33 8
10/31/99 42 53 6
9/2/99 46 47 7
6/6/99 48 46 6
3/14/99 44 49 7
2/14/99 46 50 4
12/20/98 44 51 5
12/19/98 45 50 5
12/13/98 49 46 5
11/7/98 41 55 4
11/1/98 49 47 5
10/25/98 45 44 11
10/18/98 46 45 8
9/28/98 52 44 4
8/21/98 55 39 6
7/12/98 46 44 11
5/12/98 45 45 9
4/4/98 47 45 8
1/31/98 55 35 10
1/30/98 55 35 10
1/25/98 56 37 8
1/24/98 55 38 7
1/19/98 47 49 5
10/13/97 36 57 7
8/27/97 39 54 7
7/8/97 40 53 6
4/24/97 40 53 7
3/9/97 35 60 5
8/5/96 42 52 7
6/30/96 35 58 7
5/22/96 35 60 5
3/10/96 30 64 6
1/7/96 31 65 5
11/19/95 27 68 5
10/1/95 32 65 3
7/17/95 34 63 3
3/19/95 39 56 5
1/29/95 42 52 6
10/31/94 21 72 8
10/23/94 18 78 4
9/11/94 24 70 5
6/26/94 34 61 5
3/27/94 35 62 3
2/27/94 32 64 4
1/23/94 29 60 11
11/14/93 28 66 6
8/8/93 33 64 3
4/26/93 30 69 2
1/17/93 29 66 6
4/9/92 17 78 5
3/18/92 19 76 5
3/8/92 22 73 6
2/2/92 32 64 4
12/15/91 35 59 6
10/21/91 45 50 5
6/2/91 49 46 5
10/14/90 34 63 3
2/4/90 41 55 4
1/16/90 39 55 6
8/21/89 42 53 5
5/23/89 54 44 2
2/14/89 53 44 3
1/23/88* 43 53 4
6/1/87 56 40 4
6/22/85 54 37 9
5/83 33 43 24
6/81 38 40 22
6/79 19 61 20
9/78 29 49 22
6/77 34 42 24
6/75 29 54 17
8/74 48 " " 35 " " 17
*1/23/88 and previous: Gallup
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the U.S. House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job?
Approve Disapprove No opinion
11/4/06 RV 56 35 8
10/22/06 RV 62 32 6
All 59 33 8
10/8/06 60 33 6
9/7/06 60 30 9
8/6/06 55 37 7
5/15/06 62 31 7
4/9/06 59 34 6
1/26/06 64 30 6
12/18/05 65 29 6
11/2/05 60 33 7
6/5/05 61 32 8
9/26/02 64 27 9
7/15/02 68 23 9
11/1/98 72 20 8
11/1/98 LV 73 23 5
10/18/98 68 20 11
10/18/98 LV 67 25 9
9/28/98 70 21 10
9/28/98 LV 71 23 6
7/12/98 70 18 12
1/19/98 74 19 7
4/5/95 65 25 9
10/31/94 51 38 11
10/23/94 49 43 8
9/11/94 53 35 12
6/26/94 59 31 10
3/27/94 62 26 12
1/17/93 60 29 11
4/9/92 47 39 13
3/18/92 49 40 11
2/2/92 56 32 12
12/15/91 60 28 12
10/21/91 64 27 9
6/2/91 61 26 14
10/14/90 64 29 7
5/23/89 71 18 11
11. Will/was one reason for your vote for Congress (be) to express (support for) Bush, to express (opposition to) Bush, or is/was Bush not a factor in your choice?
Support Opposition Not a factor No opinion
11/4/06 RV 17 31 50 2
10/22/06 RV 17 31 50 2
10/8/06 RV 18 35 47 1
5/15/06 12 30 58 1
11/4/02 LV 29 15 55 1
11/3/02 LV 29 17 52 1
11/2/02 LV 30 15 54 1
10/27/02 LV 33 18 49 1
Compare to: Is one of the reasons you support this candidate to express support for Bill Clinton, to express opposition to Clinton, or would you say that Clinton is not a factor?
Support Opposition Not a factor No opinion
11/1/98 13 9 77 1
11/1/98 LV 10 13 77 *
10/25/98 14 10 72 4
10/25/98 LV 15 15 70 1
10/18/98 13 9 75 3
10/18/98 LV 12 12 76 1
9/28/98 14 13 71 2
9/28/98 LV 14 18 67 1
12. Which political party, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans), do you trust to do a better job handling the situation in Iraq?
Both Neither No
Democrats Republicans (vol.) (vol.) op.
11/4/06 RV 42 42 1 11 3
10/22/06 RV 48 40 1 8 3
10/8/06 51 38 3 7 2
9/7/06 43 44 2 10 2
8/6/06 43 40 * 11 5
6/25/06 47 41 1 9 2
5/15/06 50 36 2 10 3
4/9/06 49 42 1 6 2
3/5/06 42 42 2 11 2
1/26/06 47 40 1 9 2
12/18/05 47 44 2 6 2
11/2/05 48 37 2 11 2
12/15/02* 30 56 4 7 3
10/27/02 LV 31 58 3 4 4
9/26/02 33 52 6 4 6
*12/15/02 and previous: "The situation with Iraq and Saddam Hussein"
13. Which political party, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans), do you think better represents your own personal values?
Both Neither No
Democrats Republicans (vol.) (vol.) op.
11/4/06 RV 48 44 1 6 2
10/8/06 53 37 2 7 1
11/2/05 50 40 1 7 1
4/24/05 47 38 2 10 2
3/14/99 47 39 3 8 3
14. Whether or not you agree with them, do you think the Democrats are or are not offering the country a clear direction that's different from the Republicans?
Yes, No, No
they are they are not opin.
11/4/06 RV 49 47 4
10/8/06 52 44 4
8/6/06 48 47 5
5/15/06 44 52 4
11/2/05 44 51 5
15. Do you think most of the (INSERT) in Congress deserve to be re-elected, or not?
11/4/06 - Summary Table, Among Registered Voters
Yes No No opin.
a. Democrats 48 41 10
b. Republicans 39 53 8
Trend:
a. Democrats
Yes No No opin.
11/4/06 RV 48 41 10
10/8/06 RV 55 37 8
b. Republicans
Yes No No opin.
11/4/06 RV 39 53 8
10/8/06 RV 38 56 5
16. Have you recently been contacted in person, by telephone, or by e-mail by any organization working in support of a candidate for Congress, asking for your vote?
Yes No No opinion
11/4/06 RV 41 59 *
10/22/06 RV 29 70 1
All 25 74 *
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