Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Monday, November 19, 2007
This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone November 14-18, 2007, among a random sample of 500 Iowans likely to vote in the Democratic caucuses. The results have a four percentage point margin of sampling error. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
*= less than 0.5 percent
1. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) Are you registered to vote in Iowa at your present address, or not?
Yes No No opinion
11/18/07 100 0 0
7/31/07 100 0 0
2. How closely are you following the 2008 presidential campaign: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?
---- Closely ----- ---- Not closely ----- No
NET Very Smwt. NET Not too At all opinion
11/18/07 95 53 42 5 4 1 0
7/31/07 88 42 46 12 9 3 *
3. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will attend one of the Iowa presidential caucuses that will be held in your precinct in January. Are you absolutely certain you will attend, will you probably attend, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?
Certain Probably Chances Less than Will not No
to attend attend 50/50 50/50 attend (vol.) opinion
11/18/07 61 39 0 0 0 0
7/31/07 50 50 0 0 0 0
4. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) If the caucuses were being held today, would you attend the (Democratic Party caucus) or the (Republican Party caucus) in your precinct?
Democratic caucus Republican caucus
11/18/07 100 0
7/31/07 100 0
5. If the Democratic caucus were being held today, and the candidates were: (Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, and Mike Gravel), who would you support?
NET LEANED VOTE:
11/18/07 7/31/07
Barack Obama 30 27
Hillary Clinton 26 26
John Edwards 22 26
Bill Richardson 11 11
Joe Biden 4 2
Dennis Kucinich 2 2
Chris Dodd 1 1
Mike Gravel * 0
Other (vol.) 1 0
None of these (vol.) * 2
Would not vote (vol.) 0 0
No opinion 3 4
6. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely support (NAME) as your first choice, or is there a chance you could change your mind and support someone else as your first choice? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
support NET Good Unlikely opinion
Hillary Clinton 57 43 19 24 1
Barack Obama 56 43 21 22 1
John Edwards 53 43 16 27 4
7. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) How enthusiastic are you about supporting (NAME) - very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
11/18/07 - Summary Table
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
Barack Obama 99 51 47 * 0 * 1
Hillary Clinton 96 49 47 4 4 0 0
John Edwards 94 48 46 6 5 1 0
8. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Who would your second choice be?
NET LEANED VOTE:
11/18/07 7/31/07
Barack Obama 26 26
John Edwards 24 23
Hillary Clinton 19 23
Bill Richardson 13 12
Joe Biden 6 4
Chris Dodd 4 3
Dennis Kucinich 2 1
Mike Gravel * *
Other (vol.) * 1
None of these (vol.) 3 4
Would not vote (vol.) 1 1
No opinion 1 3
First choice/Second choice NET
11/18/07 7/31/07
Barack Obama 55 51
John Edwards 45 48
Hillary Clinton 44 48
Bill Richardson 23 22
Joe Biden 10 5
Chris Dodd 4 4
Dennis Kucinich 4 3
Mike Gravel * *
Other (vol.) 1 1
None of these (vol.) 3 5
Would not vote (vol.) 1 1
No opinion 4 7
9. What is the single most important issue in your choice for the Democratic candidate for president?
11/18/07
Iraq/War in Iraq 33
Health care 26
Economy/Jobs 10
Ethics/Honesty/Corruption
in government 5
Education 3
Environment 2
Foreign policy 2
Immigration/Illegal
immigration 2
Energy/Ethanol 1
Terrorism/National security 1
Abortion 1
Morals/Family values 1
Federal budget deficit 1
Social Security 1
Global warming *
Iran/Situation in Iran *
Farming/Agriculture issues *
None/Nothing 1
Other 8
No opinion 3
9a. (IF MENTIONED MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE) Is there one other issue that's nearly as important?
11/18/07
Health care 24
Iraq/War in Iraq 23
Economy/Jobs 12
Education 7
Foreign policy 4
Immigration/Illegal
immigration 4
Environment 3
Energy/Ethanol 2
Global warming 2
Social Security 2
Taxes 2
Terrorism/National security 1
Ethics/Honesty/Corruption
in government 1
Abortion 1
Federal budget deficit 1
Morals/Family values 1
Iran/Situation in Iran 1
Housing/Mortgages *
Farming/Agriculture issues *
None/Nothing 4
Other 4
No opinion 3
9/9a NET: Top two important issues combined.
11/18/07
Iraq/War in Iraq 55
Health care 50
Economy/Jobs 21
Education 10
Ethics/Honesty/Corruption
in government 6
Immigration/Illegal
immigration 6
Social Security 5
Environment 4
Energy/Ethanol 3
Foreign policy 3
Abortion 2
Global warming 2
Morals/Family values 2
Federal budget deficit 2
Taxes 2
Iran/Situation in Iran 1
Farming/Agriculture issues 1
Terrorism/National security 1
Housing/Mortgages *
None/Nothing 1
Other 12
No opinion 3
10. Regardless of who you may support, which of the Democratic candidates do you think (ITEM) - (Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, or Mike Gravel)?
11/18/07 - Summary Table
Other/None/
Clinton Edwards Obama Richardson No opinion
a. is the strongest leader 32 17 27 10 14
b. best understands the
problems of people
like you 20 25 30 9 16
c. is the most honest and
trustworthy 15 20 31 13 21
d. has the best experience
to be president 38 16 11 16 19
e. has campaigned the
hardest in Iowa 34 25 26 2 14
f. has the best chance of
getting elected president
in November 2008 39 22 25 2 12
Trend:
a. is the strongest leader
11/18/07 7/31/07
Hillary Clinton 32 36
Barack Obama 27 23
John Edwards 17 18
Bill Richardson 10 9
Joe Biden 6 2
Chris Dodd * *
Dennis Kucinich * 1
Mike Gravel 0 0
All of them * *
None of them 1 2
No opinion 6 9
b. best understands the problems of people like you
11/18/07 7/31/07
Barack Obama 30 27
John Edwards 25 25
Hillary Clinton 20 22
Bill Richardson 9 9
Joe Biden 4 1
Dennis Kucinich 3 2
Chris Dodd * 2
Mike Gravel 0 *
All of them 2 1
None of them 3 4
No opinion 4 6
c. is the most honest and trustworthy
11/18/07 7/31/07
Barack Obama 31 30
John Edwards 20 24
Hillary Clinton 15 14
Bill Richardson 13 8
Dennis Kucinich 5 3
Joe Biden 4 2
Chris Dodd 1 2
Mike Gravel * *
All of them 4 4
None of them 3 5
No opinion 4 9
d. has the best experience to be president
11/18/07 7/31/07
Hillary Clinton 38 50
Bill Richardson 16 13
John Edwards 16 15
Barack Obama 11 7
Joe Biden 9 5
Chris Dodd 1 2
Dennis Kucinich 1 *
Mike Gravel 0 0
All of them 1 2
None of them 1 3
No opinion 6 4
e. has campaigned the hardest in Iowa
11/18/07 7/31/07
Hillary Clinton 34 30
Barack Obama 26 22
John Edwards 25 29
Bill Richardson 2 3
Joe Biden 1 0
Chris Dodd * 1
Dennis Kucinich 0 0
Mike Gravel 0 0
All of them 4 3
None of them * 1
No opinion 8 10
f. has the best chance of getting elected president in November 2008
11/18/07 7/31/07
Hillary Clinton 39 35
Barack Obama 25 23
John Edwards 22 22
Bill Richardson 2 4
Joe Biden 2 1
Dennis Kucinich 1 *
Chris Dodd * *
Mike Gravel 0 0
All of them * 1
None of them 1 2
No opinion 8 12
11. Regardless of who you may support, who do you trust most to handle (ITEM)?
11/18/07 - Summary Table
Other/none/
Clinton Edwards Obama Richardson no opinion
a. The economy 28 21 27 7 16
b. Health care 36 27 20 6 11
c. Social Security 27 20 27 6 19
d. Immigration issues 16 17 22 25 20
e. The situation in Iraq 23 15 26 15 21
f. The situation
involving Iran 23 18 26 14 20
a. The economy
11/18/07
Hillary Clinton 28
Barack Obama 27
John Edwards 21
Bill Richardson 7
Joe Biden 5
Chris Dodd 2
Dennis Kucinich 2
Mike Gravel 0
All of them 1
None of them *
No opinion 6
b. Health care
11/18/07
Hillary Clinton 36
John Edwards 27
Barack Obama 20
Bill Richardson 6
Joe Biden 2
Chris Dodd 1
Dennis Kucinich 1
Mike Gravel *
All of them *
None of them 1
No opinion 4
c. Social Security
11/18/07
Barack Obama 27
Hillary Clinton 27
John Edwards 20
Bill Richardson 6
Joe Biden 4
Dennis Kucinich 3
Chris Dodd *
Mike Gravel *
All of them 1
None of them 3
No opinion 8
d. Immigration issues
11/18/07
Bill Richardson 25
Barack Obama 22
John Edwards 17
Hillary Clinton 16
Joe Biden 3
Dennis Kucinich 2
Chris Dodd 1
Mike Gravel 0
All of them 2
None of them 4
No opinion 8
e. The situation in Iraq
11/18/07 7/31/07*
Hillary Clinton 23 29
John Edwards 15 16
Barack Obama 26 17
Bill Richardson 15 12
Joe Biden 8 5
Chris Dodd 1 2
Dennis Kucinich 3 1
Mike Gravel * 0
All of them 1 2
None of them 3 5
No opinion 5 12
*7/31/07: "Regardless of who you may support, which of the Democratic candidates do you think is best able to handle the situation in Iraq?"
f. The situation involving Iran
11/18/07
Barack Obama 26
Hillary Clinton 23
John Edwards 18
Bill Richardson 14
Joe Biden 9
Dennis Kucinich 2
Chris Dodd 1
Mike Gravel 0
All of them *
None of them 2
No opinion 5
12. Regardless of who you may support, do you think (NAME) is or is not willing enough to say what [he/she] really thinks about the issues?
11/18/07 - Summary Table
Is Is not No opinion
a. Hillary Clinton 50 45 5
b. Barack Obama 76 20 4
c. John Edwards 73 21 6
13. Does the fact that Clinton would be the first woman president make you (more) likely to vote for her, (less) likely to vote for her, or doesn't it make a difference in your vote?
More Less No difference No opinion
11/18/07 15 2 83 1
14. So far in the Democratic campaign, have you (ITEM)?
11/18/07 - Summary Table
Yes No No op.
a. been called on the telephone by any of the campaigns 80 19 1
b. attended a campaign event 52 48 0
c. contributed money to any of the presidential candidates 16 84 *
d. visited any of the candidates' Web sites on the Internet 44 56 *
e. received e-mails from any of the campaigns 38 60 2
f. yourself personally spoken with or shaken the hand of
any of the Democratic candidates or not 33 66 *
Trend where available: December 2003 comparisons to Pew Research Center Iowa Democratic caucus poll.
a. been called on the telephone by any of the campaigns
Yes No No opinion
11/18/07 80 19 1
7/31/07 71 29 *
12/4/03 74 26 *
b. attended a campaign event
Yes No No opinion
11/18/07 52 48 0
7/31/07 40 60 0
12/4/03 34 66 *
c. contributed money to any of the presidential candidates
Yes No No opinion
11/18/07 16 84 *
7/31/07 17 82 *
12/4/03 20 79 1
d. visited any of the candidates' Web sites on the Internet
Yes No No opinion
11/18/07 44 56 *
7/31/07 33 67 0
e. received e-mails from any of the campaigns
Yes No No opinion
11/18/07 38 60 2
7/31/07 32 66 2
f. No trend.
15. (IF MET CANDIDATE) Who'd you meet?
11/18/07
Barack Obama 51
John Edwards 38
Hillary Clinton 36
Bill Richardson 22
Joe Biden 18
Chris Dodd 13
Dennis Kucinich 4
Mike Gravel 2
Other 2
No opinion 0
14 f/15 NET:
11/18/07
Have met candidate NET 33
Barack Obama 17
John Edwards 13
Hillary Clinton 12
Bill Richardson 7
Joe Biden 6
Chris Dodd 4
Dennis Kucinich 1
Mike Gravel 1
Other 1
No opinion 0
Have not met candidate 66
No opinion *
16. Have you attended any previous Iowa caucuses, or will this be your first caucus?
Have attended First caucus No opinion 11/18/07 63 36 * 7/31/07 68 31 *
17. Which of these is more important to you in a candidate for president: (strength and experience) or (a new direction and new ideas)?
Strength and New direction Both Neither No
experience and new ideas (vol.) (vol.) opinion
11/18/07 33 55 11 * 1
7/31/07 39 49 11 * 1
18. Which best describes your family's financial situation? Do you feel as if you (are getting ahead financially), have just enough money to maintain your standard of living, or (are falling behind financially)?
Getting Just enough Falling No
ahead to maintain behind opinion
11/18/07 21 61 17 1
19. As you may know, periods of economic growth are followed by periods of recession. Do you think a recession over the next year is very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely or very unlikely?
------- Likely ------ ----- Unlikely ------ No
NET Very Somewhat NET Somewhat Very opinion
11/18/07 83 36 48 15 10 4 2
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