Washington Post-ABC News Poll

Monday, November 19, 2007

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone November 14-18, 2007, among a random sample of 500 Iowans likely to vote in the Democratic caucuses. The results have a four percentage point margin of sampling error. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

*= less than 0.5 percent

1. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) Are you registered to vote in Iowa at your present address, or not?


           Yes   No   No opinion
11/18/07   100    0        0 
7/31/07    100    0        0

2. How closely are you following the 2008 presidential campaign: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?

           ---- Closely -----   ---- Not closely -----     No
           NET   Very   Smwt.   NET   Not too   At all   opinion
11/18/07   95     53     42      5        4        1        0
7/31/07    88     42     46     12        9        3        *

3. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will attend one of the Iowa presidential caucuses that will be held in your precinct in January. Are you absolutely certain you will attend, will you probably attend, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

            Certain    Probably   Chances   Less than     Will not        No 
           to attend    attend     50/50      50/50     attend (vol.)   opinion
11/18/07      61          39         0          0             0            0
7/31/07       50          50         0          0             0            0

4. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) If the caucuses were being held today, would you attend the (Democratic Party caucus) or the (Republican Party caucus) in your precinct?

           Democratic caucus   Republican caucus
11/18/07         100                   0 
7/31/07          100                   0

5. If the Democratic caucus were being held today, and the candidates were: (Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, and Mike Gravel), who would you support?

NET LEANED VOTE: 
                        11/18/07   7/31/07
Barack Obama               30        27
Hillary Clinton            26        26
John Edwards               22        26
Bill Richardson            11        11
Joe Biden                   4         2
Dennis Kucinich             2         2
Chris Dodd                  1         1
Mike Gravel                 *         0
Other (vol.)                1         0
None of these (vol.)        *         2
Would not vote (vol.)       0         0
No opinion                  3         4

6. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely support (NAME) as your first choice, or is there a chance you could change your mind and support someone else as your first choice? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?

                 Definitely   -Chance change mind -     No 
                  support     NET   Good   Unlikely   opinion
Hillary Clinton      57       43     19       24         1 
Barack Obama         56       43     21       22         1
John Edwards         53       43     16       27         4

7. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) How enthusiastic are you about supporting (NAME) - very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?

11/18/07 - Summary Table 

                  --- Enthusiastic --   ---- Not enthusiastic ----     No
                  NET   Very   Fairly   NET   Not too   Not at all   opinion
Barack Obama      99     51      47      *       0           *          1
Hillary Clinton   96     49      47      4       4           0          0
John Edwards      94     48      46      6       5           1          0

8. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Who would your second choice be?

NET LEANED VOTE:

                        11/18/07   7/31/07
Barack Obama               26        26
John Edwards               24        23
Hillary Clinton            19        23
Bill Richardson            13        12
Joe Biden                   6         4
Chris Dodd                  4         3
Dennis Kucinich             2         1
Mike Gravel                 *         *
Other (vol.)                *         1
None of these (vol.)        3         4
Would not vote (vol.)       1         1
No opinion                  1         3

First choice/Second choice NET

			11/18/07   7/31/07
Barack Obama               55        51
John Edwards               45        48
Hillary Clinton            44        48
Bill Richardson            23        22
Joe Biden                  10         5
Chris Dodd                  4         4
Dennis Kucinich             4         3
Mike Gravel                 *         *
Other (vol.)                1         1
None of these (vol.)        3         5
Would not vote (vol.)       1         1
No opinion                  4         7

9. What is the single most important issue in your choice for the Democratic candidate for president?

                              11/18/07
Iraq/War in Iraq                 33
Health care                      26
Economy/Jobs                     10
Ethics/Honesty/Corruption 
 in government                    5
Education                         3
Environment                       2 
Foreign policy                    2
Immigration/Illegal 
 immigration                      2
Energy/Ethanol                    1
Terrorism/National security       1
Abortion                          1
Morals/Family values              1
Federal budget deficit            1
Social Security                   1
Global warming                    *
Iran/Situation in Iran            * 
Farming/Agriculture issues        *
None/Nothing                      1
Other                             8
No opinion                        3

9a. (IF MENTIONED MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE) Is there one other issue that's nearly as important?

                              11/18/07
Health care                      24
Iraq/War in Iraq                 23
Economy/Jobs                     12
Education                         7
Foreign policy                    4
Immigration/Illegal 
 immigration                      4
Environment                       3
Energy/Ethanol                    2
Global warming                    2
Social Security                   2
Taxes                             2
Terrorism/National security       1
Ethics/Honesty/Corruption 
 in government                    1
Abortion                          1
Federal budget deficit            1
Morals/Family values              1
Iran/Situation in Iran            1
Housing/Mortgages                 *
Farming/Agriculture issues        *
None/Nothing                      4
Other                             4
No opinion                        3

9/9a NET: Top two important issues combined.

                              11/18/07
Iraq/War in Iraq                 55
Health care                      50
Economy/Jobs                     21
Education                        10
Ethics/Honesty/Corruption 
 in government                    6
Immigration/Illegal 
 immigration                      6
Social Security                   5
Environment                       4 
Energy/Ethanol                    3
Foreign policy                    3
Abortion                          2
Global warming                    2
Morals/Family values              2
Federal budget deficit            2
Taxes                             2
Iran/Situation in Iran            1
Farming/Agriculture issues        1
Terrorism/National security       1
Housing/Mortgages                 *
None/Nothing                      1
Other                            12
No opinion                        3

10. Regardless of who you may support, which of the Democratic candidates do you think (ITEM) - (Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, or Mike Gravel)?

11/18/07 - Summary Table

                                                                    Other/None/
                               Clinton  Edwards  Obama  Richardson  No opinion
a. is the strongest leader        32      17      27       10           14
b. best understands the 
   problems of people 
   like you                       20      25      30        9           16
c. is the most honest and 
   trustworthy                    15      20      31       13           21
d. has the best experience 
   to be president                38      16      11       16           19
e. has campaigned the 
   hardest in Iowa                34      25      26        2           14
f. has the best chance of 
   getting elected president    
   in November 2008               39      22      25        2           12

Trend:

a. is the strongest leader

                  11/18/07   7/31/07
Hillary Clinton      32        36
Barack Obama         27        23
John Edwards         17        18
Bill Richardson      10         9
Joe Biden             6         2
Chris Dodd            *         *
Dennis Kucinich       *         1
Mike Gravel           0         0
All of them           *         *
None of them          1         2
No opinion            6         9

b. best understands the problems of people like you

                  11/18/07   7/31/07
Barack Obama         30        27
John Edwards         25        25
Hillary Clinton      20        22
Bill Richardson       9         9
Joe Biden             4         1
Dennis Kucinich       3         2
Chris Dodd            *         2
Mike Gravel           0         *
All of them           2         1
None of them          3         4
No opinion            4         6

c. is the most honest and trustworthy

                  11/18/07   7/31/07
Barack Obama         31        30
John Edwards         20        24
Hillary Clinton      15        14
Bill Richardson      13         8
Dennis Kucinich       5         3
Joe Biden             4         2
Chris Dodd            1         2
Mike Gravel           *         *
All of them           4         4
None of them          3         5
No opinion            4         9

d. has the best experience to be president

                  11/18/07   7/31/07
Hillary Clinton      38        50
Bill Richardson      16        13
John Edwards         16        15
Barack Obama         11         7
Joe Biden             9         5
Chris Dodd            1         2
Dennis Kucinich       1         *

Mike Gravel           0         0
All of them           1         2
None of them          1         3
No opinion            6         4

e. has campaigned the hardest in Iowa

                  11/18/07   7/31/07
Hillary Clinton      34        30
Barack Obama         26        22
John Edwards         25        29
Bill Richardson       2         3
Joe Biden             1         0
Chris Dodd            *         1
Dennis Kucinich       0         0
Mike Gravel           0         0
All of them           4         3
None of them          *         1
No opinion            8        10

f. has the best chance of getting elected president in November 2008

                  11/18/07   7/31/07
Hillary Clinton      39        35
Barack Obama         25        23
John Edwards         22        22
Bill Richardson       2         4
Joe Biden             2         1
Dennis Kucinich       1         *
Chris Dodd            *         *
Mike Gravel           0         0
All of them           *         1
None of them          1         2
No opinion            8        12

11. Regardless of who you may support, who do you trust most to handle (ITEM)?

11/18/07 - Summary Table

                                                                    Other/none/
                          Clinton   Edwards   Obama   Richardson    no opinion
a. The economy               28        21       27         7           16
b. Health care               36        27       20         6           11
c. Social Security           27        20       27         6           19
d. Immigration issues        16        17       22        25           20
e. The situation in Iraq     23        15       26        15           21
f. The situation 
   involving Iran            23        18       26        14           20 


a. The economy

                  11/18/07
Hillary Clinton      28 
Barack Obama         27 
John Edwards         21 
Bill Richardson       7 
Joe Biden             5 
Chris Dodd            2 
Dennis Kucinich       2 
Mike Gravel           0 
All of them           1 
None of them          * 
No opinion            6 

b. Health care

                  11/18/07
Hillary Clinton      36 
John Edwards         27 
Barack Obama         20 
Bill Richardson       6 
Joe Biden             2 
Chris Dodd            1 
Dennis Kucinich       1 
Mike Gravel           * 
All of them           * 
None of them          1 
No opinion            4 

c. Social Security

                  11/18/07
Barack Obama         27 
Hillary Clinton      27 
John Edwards         20 
Bill Richardson       6 
Joe Biden             4 
Dennis Kucinich       3 
Chris Dodd            * 
Mike Gravel           * 
All of them           1 
None of them          3 
No opinion            8 

d. Immigration issues

                  11/18/07
Bill Richardson      25 
Barack Obama         22 
John Edwards         17 
Hillary Clinton      16 
Joe Biden             3 
Dennis Kucinich       2 
Chris Dodd            1 
Mike Gravel           0 
All of them           2 
None of them          4 
No opinion            8 

e. The situation in Iraq
 
                  11/18/07   7/31/07*
Hillary Clinton      23        29
John Edwards         15        16
Barack Obama         26        17
Bill Richardson      15        12
Joe Biden             8         5
Chris Dodd            1         2
Dennis Kucinich       3         1
Mike Gravel           *         0
All of them           1         2
None of them          3         5
No opinion            5        12

*7/31/07: "Regardless of who you may support, which of the Democratic candidates do you think is best able to handle the situation in Iraq?"

f. The situation involving Iran

                  11/18/07
Barack Obama         26 
Hillary Clinton      23 
John Edwards         18 
Bill Richardson      14 
Joe Biden             9 
Dennis Kucinich       2 
Chris Dodd            1 
Mike Gravel           0 
All of them           * 
None of them          2 
No opinion            5 

12. Regardless of who you may support, do you think (NAME) is or is not willing enough to say what [he/she] really thinks about the issues?

11/18/07 - Summary Table

                     Is   Is not   No opinion 
a. Hillary Clinton   50     45          5 
b. Barack Obama      76     20          4
c. John Edwards      73     21          6 

13. Does the fact that Clinton would be the first woman president make you (more) likely to vote for her, (less) likely to vote for her, or doesn't it make a difference in your vote?

           More   Less   No difference   No opinion 
11/18/07    15      2          83             1    

14. So far in the Democratic campaign, have you (ITEM)?

11/18/07 - Summary Table

                                                              Yes   No   No op.
a. been called on the telephone by any of the campaigns       80    19     1
b. attended a campaign event                                  52    48     0
c. contributed money to any of the presidential candidates    16    84     *
d. visited any of the candidates' Web sites on the Internet   44    56     *
e. received e-mails from any of the campaigns                 38    60     2
f. yourself personally spoken with or shaken the hand of 
   any of the Democratic candidates or not                    33    66     *


Trend where available: December 2003 comparisons to Pew Research Center Iowa Democratic caucus poll.

a. been called on the telephone by any of the campaigns

           Yes   No   No opinion
11/18/07   80    19        1
7/31/07    71    29        *
12/4/03    74    26        *

b. attended a campaign event

           Yes   No   No opinion
11/18/07   52    48        0
7/31/07    40    60        0
12/4/03    34    66        *

c. contributed money to any of the presidential candidates

           Yes   No   No opinion
11/18/07   16    84        *
7/31/07    17    82        *
12/4/03    20    79        1

d. visited any of the candidates' Web sites on the Internet

           Yes   No   No opinion
11/18/07   44    56        *
7/31/07    33    67        0

e. received e-mails from any of the campaigns
           
		   Yes   No   No opinion
11/18/07   38    60        2
7/31/07    32    66        2

f. No trend.

15. (IF MET CANDIDATE) Who'd you meet?

                  11/18/07 
Barack Obama         51 
John Edwards         38 
Hillary Clinton      36 
Bill Richardson      22 
Joe Biden            18 
Chris Dodd           13 
Dennis Kucinich       4 
Mike Gravel           2 
Other                 2 
No opinion            0 

14 f/15 NET:

                         11/18/07
Have met candidate NET      33
 Barack Obama               17
 John Edwards               13
 Hillary Clinton            12
 Bill Richardson             7
 Joe Biden                   6
 Chris Dodd                  4
 Dennis Kucinich             1
 Mike Gravel                 1
 Other                       1
 No opinion                  0
Have not met candidate      66
No opinion                   *

16. Have you attended any previous Iowa caucuses, or will this be your first caucus?

			Have attended   First caucus   No opinion
11/18/07        63              36             *
7/31/07         68              31             *

17. Which of these is more important to you in a candidate for president: (strength and experience) or (a new direction and new ideas)?

           Strength and   New direction    Both    Neither     No 
            experience    and new ideas   (vol.)   (vol.)    opinion
11/18/07        33             55           11        *         1
7/31/07         39             49           11        *         1

18. Which best describes your family's financial situation? Do you feel as if you (are getting ahead financially), have just enough money to maintain your standard of living, or (are falling behind financially)?

           Getting   Just enough   Falling     No
            ahead    to maintain   behind    opinion
11/18/07     21           61          17        1

19. As you may know, periods of economic growth are followed by periods of recession. Do you think a recession over the next year is very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely or very unlikely?

           ------- Likely ------   ----- Unlikely ------     No
           NET   Very   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Very   opinion
11/18/07   83     36       48      15       10        4       2

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