Washington Post-ABC News Poll

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone November 14-18, 2007, among a random sample of 400 Iowans likely to vote in the Republican caucus. The results have a five percentage point margin of sampling error. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

*= less than 0.5 percent

1. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) Are you registered to vote in Iowa at your present address, or not?

          
 	  Yes    No   No opinion
11/18/07   100    0        0 
7/31/07    100    0        0

2. How closely are you following the 2008 presidential campaign: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?

                   ---- Closely -----   ---- Not closely -----     No
           NET   Very   Smwt.   NET   Not too   At all   opinion   
11/18/07   93     48     44      7        6        1        0   
7/31/07    88     35     53     12       10        2        0  

3. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will attend one of the Iowa presidential caucuses that will be held in your precinct in January. Are you absolutely certain you will attend, will you probably attend, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

            Certain    Probably   Chances   Less than     Will not        No 
           to attend    attend     50/50      50/50     attend (vol.)   opinion
11/18/07      47          53         0          0             0            0
7/31/07       39          61         0          0             0            0

4. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) If the caucuses were being held today, would you attend the (Democratic Party caucus) or the (Republican Party caucus) in your precinct?

           Democratic caucus   Republican caucus
11/18/07            0                 100
7/31/07             0                 100

5. If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were: (Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul, and Fred Thompson), who would you support?

NET LEANED VOTE: 
                        11/18/07     7/31/07
Mitt Romney                28          26
Mike Huckabee              24           8
Fred Thompson              15          13
Rudy Giuliani              13          14
John McCain                 6           8
Ron Paul                    6           2
Tom Tancredo                2           5
Duncan Hunter               1           1
Other (vol.)                0           1
Tommy Thompson             NA           4
Sam Brownback              NA           5
None of these (vol.)        1           4
Would not vote (vol.)       *           0
No opinion                  4           7

6. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely support (NAME) as your first choice, or is there a chance you could change your mind and support someone else as your first choice? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?

11/18/07 - Summary Table* 

             Definitely    -Chance change mind -     No 
               support     NET   Good   Unlikely   opinion
Mike Huckabee    48        45     26       19         7
Mitt Romney      29        70     42       28         2
*Sample size too small for other candidates.

7. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) How enthusiastic are you about supporting (NAMED CANDIDATE) - very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?

11/18/07 - Summary Table*

                --- Enthusiastic --   ---- Not enthusiastic ----     No
                NET   Very   Fairly   NET   Not too   Not at all   opinion
Mike Huckabee   94     50      44      4       4           0          2
Mitt Romney     94     28      65      6       6           0          0
*Sample size too small for other candidates.

8. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Who would your second choice be?

NET LEANED VOTE: 

                        11/18/07   7/31/07
Mitt Romney                20        20
Rudy Giuliani              17        18
Fred Thompson              17        13
Mike Huckabee              16         4
John McCain                 7         6
Tom Tancredo                6         4
Ron Paul                    6         *
Duncan Hunter               1         2
Tommy Thompson             NA         7
Sam Brownback              NA         7
Newt Gingrich              NA         6
Other (vol.)                2         3
None of these (vol.)        5         4
Would not vote (vol.)       0         *
No opinion                  3         5

First choice/Second choice NET

                        11/18/07   7/31/07
Mitt Romney                47        43
Mike Huckabee              39        11
Fred Thompson              31        24
Rudy Giuliani              29        30
John McCain                12        14
Ron Paul                   11         3
Tom Tancredo                8         9
Duncan Hunter               2         3
Tommy Thompson             NA        11
Sam Brownback              NA        11
Newt Gingrich              NA         9
Other (vol.)                2         3
None of these (vol.)        6         7
Would not vote (vol.)       *         *
No opinion                  7        12

9. What is the single most important issue in your choice for the Republican candidate for president?

                              11/18/07
Terrorism/National security      14
Immigration/Illegal 
 immigration                     13
Abortion                         10
Iraq/War in Iraq                 10
Economy/Jobs                      9
Health care                       8
Morals/Family values              7
Taxes                             6
Ethics/Honesty/Corruption 
 in government                    4
Federal budget deficit            2
Education                         1
Social Security                   1
Foreign policy                    *
Energy/Ethanol                    * 
Iran/Situation in Iran            0 
Housing/Mortgages                 0
Environment                       0 
None/Nothing                      0
Other                            10
No opinion                        5

9a. (IF MENTIONED MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE) Is there one other issue that's nearly as important?

                              11/18/07
Iraq/War in Iraq                 16
Immigration/Illegal 
 immigration                     12
Economy/Jobs                      8
Health care                       8
Taxes                             8 
Terrorism/National security       7
Abortion                          6
Morals/Family values              3
Federal budget deficit            3
Social Security                   3
Foreign policy                    3
Education                         2
Ethics/Honesty/Corruption 
 in government                    1
Energy/Ethanol                    1
Environment                       * 
Housing/Mortgages                 *
Iran/Situation in Iran            * 
None/Nothing                      4
Other                             8
No opinion                        6

9/9a NET: Top two important issues combined.

                              11/18/07
Iraq/War in Iraq                 24
Immigration/Illegal 
 immigration                     24
Terrorism/National security      21
Economy/Jobs                     16
Health care                      16
Abortion                         15
Taxes                            13
Morals/Family values             10
Ethics/Honesty/Corruption 
 in government                    5
Federal budget deficit            4
Social Security                   4
Foreign policy                    3
Education                         2
Environment                       * 
Housing/Mortgages                 *
Iran/Situation in Iran            * 
Energy/Ethanol                    2
Other                            15
No opinion                        5

10. Regardless of who you may support, which of the Republican candidates do you think (ITEM)?

11/18/07 - Summary Table
                                                                    Other/none/
                     Giuliani  McCain  Romney  Huckabee  Thompson    no opin.
a. is the strongest 
   leader               31        6      30       12         9          12
b. best understands 
   the problems of 
   people like you       8        5      21       25        11          30
c. is the most honest 
   and trustworthy       4        8      25       26        13          25
d. has the best 
   experience to 
   be president         21       13      31       12         9          14
e. has campaigned the
   hardest in Iowa       4        5      63        8         3          18
f. has the best chance  
   of getting elected  
   president in 
   November 2008        32        3      30       12         8          15

Trend:

a. is the strongest leader

                 11/18/07   7/31/07
Rudy Giuliani       31        26
Mitt Romney         30        23
Mike Huckabee       12         4
Fred Thompson        9         9
John McCain          6        11
Ron Paul             3         *
Tom Tancredo         1         2
Duncan Hunter        *         *
Newt Gingrich       NA         5
Sam Brownback       NA         4
Tommy Thompson      NA         2
All of them          *         *
None of them         2         1
No opinion           6        12

b. best understands the problems of people like you   

                 11/18/07   7/31/07
Mike Huckabee       25        10
Mitt Romney         21        21
Fred Thompson       11         9
Rudy Giuliani        8        13
Ron Paul             8         2
John McCain          5         7
Tom Tancredo         5         4
Duncan Hunter        1         1
Sam Brownback       NA         7
Tommy Thompson      NA         5
Newt Gingrich       NA         3
All of them          3         1
None of them         6         5
No opinion           7        12

c. is the most honest and trustworthy            

                 11/18/07   7/31/07
Mike Huckabee       26        10
Mitt Romney         25        21
Fred Thompson       13        11
John McCain          8        10
Ron Paul             6         2
Rudy Giuliani        4         7
Tom Tancredo         4         3
Duncan Hunter        1         1
Sam Brownback       NA         7
Tommy Thompson      NA         5
Newt Gingrich       NA         3
All of them          3         1
None of them         5         5
No opinion           8        13

d. has the best experience to be president

                 11/18/07   7/31/07
Mitt Romney         31        21
Rudy Giuliani       21        22
John McCain         13        18
Mike Huckabee       12         4
Fred Thompson        9         5
Ron Paul             3         1
Tom Tancredo         1         *
Duncan Hunter        *         *
Newt Gingrich       NA         8
Tommy Thompson      NA         4
Sam Brownback       NA         3
All of them          1         *
None of them         2         2
No opinion           7        12

e. has campaigned the hardest in Iowa

                 11/18/07   7/31/07
Mitt Romney         63        49
Mike Huckabee        8         1
John McCain          5         7
Rudy Giuliani        4         6
Fred Thompson        3         *
Ron Paul             2         *
Tom Tancredo         1         4
Duncan Hunter        0         0
Tommy Thompson      NA         5
Sam Brownback       NA         4
Newt Gingrich       NA         1
All of them          2         2
None of them         3         5
No opinion          11        16

f. has the best chance of getting elected president in November 2008              

                 11/18/07   7/31/07
Rudy Giuliani       32        31
Mitt Romney         30        26
Mike Huckabee       12         1
Fred Thompson        8        11
John McCain          3         5
Ron Paul             2         1
Tom Tancredo         *         1
Duncan Hunter        0         0
Newt Gingrich       NA         3
Tommy Thompson      NA         3
Sam Brownback       NA         2
All of them          *         0
None of them         4         3
No opinion           9        14

11. Regardless of who you may support, who do you trust most to handle (ITEM)?

11/18/07 - Summary Table

                                                                    Other/None/
                      Giuliani  McCain  Romney  Huckabee  Thompson  No opinion
a. The economy           15        5      36       16         11         17
b. The federal budget 
   deficit               13        5      35       16         10         21
c. The U.S. campaign 
   against terrorism     33       15      15       10         11         17
d. Immigration issues     9        9      27       13         11         32
e. The situation  
   in Iraq               19       20      19       12         11         19
f. Social issues, such   
   as abortion and 
   gay civil unions      11        4      25       28         16         16

                         
a. The economy  

                 11/18/07 
Mitt Romney         36 
Mike Huckabee       16 
Rudy Giuliani       15 
Fred Thompson       11 
John McCain          5 
Ron Paul             5 
Duncan Hunter        1 
Tom Tancredo         1 
All of them          * 
None of them         2 
No opinion           8 

b. The federal budget deficit

                 11/18/07 
Mitt Romney         35 
Mike Huckabee       16 
Rudy Giuliani       13 
Fred Thompson       10 
Ron Paul             8 
John McCain          5 
Tom Tancredo         1 
Duncan Hunter        * 
All of them          1 
None of them         4 
No opinion           7 

c. The U.S. campaign against terrorism

                 11/18/07 
Rudy Giuliani       33 
John McCain         15 
Mitt Romney         15 
Fred Thompson       11 
Mike Huckabee       10 
Ron Paul             5 
Tom Tancredo         4 
Duncan Hunter        1 
All of them          1 
None of them         2 
No opinion           4 

d. Immigration issues

                 11/18/07 
Mitt Romney         27 
Mike Huckabee       13 
Tom Tancredo        13 
Fred Thompson       11 
Rudy Giuliani        9 
John McCain          9 
Ron Paul             6 
Duncan Hunter        1 
All of them          1 
None of them         3 
No opinion           8 

e. The situation in Iraq
 
                 11/18/07   7/31/07
Rudy Giuliani       19        17
John McCain         20        21
Mitt Romney         19        15
Mike Huckabee       12         3
Duncan Hunter        1         1
Tom Tancredo         3         1
Ron Paul             5         1
Fred Thompson       11         8
All of them          1         1
None of them         3         7
No opinion           6        16

*7/31/07: "Regardless of who you may support, which of the Republican candidates do you think is best able to handle the situation in Iraq?"

f. Social issues, such as abortion and gay civil unions

                 11/18/07 
Mike Huckabee       28 
Mitt Romney         25 
Fred Thompson       16 
Rudy Giuliani       11 
Ron Paul             6 
John McCain          4 
Tom Tancredo         2 
Duncan Hunter        1 
All of them          * 
None of them         2 
No opinion           6 

12. So far in the Republican campaign, have you (ITEM)?

11/18/07 - Summary Table

                                                              Yes   No   No op. 
a. been called on the telephone by any of the campaigns       58    41     1
b. attended a campaign event                                  29    71     0
c. contributed money to any of the presidential candidates    15    85     *
d. visited any of the candidates' Web sites on the Internet   33    67     *
e. received e-mails from any of the campaigns                 29    70     1
f. yourself personally spoken with or shaken the hand of 
   any of the Republican candidates or not                    19    81     0
   
Trend where available:

a. been called on the telephone by any of the campaigns

           Yes   No   No opinion
11/18/07   58    41        1
7/31/07    63    36        *

b. attended a campaign event

           Yes   No   No opinion
11/18/07   29    71        0
7/31/07    23    77        *

c. contributed money to any of the presidential candidates

           Yes   No   No opinion
11/18/07   15    85        *
7/31/07    10    90        *

d. visited any of the candidates' Web sites on the Internet

           Yes   No   No opinion
11/18/07   33    67        *
7/31/07    28    72        0

e. received e-mails from any of the campaigns

           Yes   No   No opinion
11/18/07   29    70        1
7/31/07    24    74        1

f. No trend. 

13. (IF MET CANDIDATE, Q12f) Who'd you meet?

12f/13A NET:

                         11/18/07
Have met candidate NET      19
 Mitt Romney                 6
 Mike Huckabee               5
 John McCain                 4
 Rudy Giuliani               3
 Tom Tancredo                3
 Tommy Thompson              2 
 Duncan Hunter               2
 Sam Brownback               2
 Ron Paul                    1
 Fred Thompson               1
 Newt Gingrich               *
 Other                       1
 No opinion                  *
Have not met candidate      81
No opinion                   0

14. Have you attended any previous Iowa caucuses, or will this be your first caucus?

           Have attended   First caucus   No opinion
11/18/07         66             34             *
7/31/07          76             24             0

15. Which of these is more important to you in a candidate for president: (strength and experience) or (a new direction and new ideas)?

           Strength and   New direction    Both    Neither     No 
            experience    and new ideas   (vol.)    (vol.)   opinion
11/18/07        70              22           6        *         2
7/31/07         70              21           8        1         1

16. Which best describes your family's financial situation? Do you feel as if you (are getting ahead financially), have just enough money to maintain your standard of living, or (are falling behind financially)?

           Getting   Just enough   Falling     No
            ahead    to maintain   behind    opinion
11/18/07      46          45          9         1

17. As you may know, periods of economic growth are followed by periods of recession. Do you think a recession over the next year is very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely or very unlikely?

           ------- Likely ------   ----- Unlikely ------     No
           NET   Very   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Very   opinion
11/18/07   61     18       42      36       28        8       3

18. Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?

           ------ Legal ------   ----- Illegal -----
                  All    Most          Most     All      No
           NET   cases   cases   NET   cases   cases   opinion
11/18/07   23      6      17     75     51      24        1

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