Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone November 14-18, 2007, among a random sample of 400 Iowans likely to vote in the Republican caucus. The results have a five percentage point margin of sampling error. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
*= less than 0.5 percent
1. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) Are you registered to vote in Iowa at your present address, or not?
Yes No No opinion 11/18/07 100 0 0 7/31/07 100 0 0
2. How closely are you following the 2008 presidential campaign: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?
---- Closely ----- ---- Not closely ----- No
NET Very Smwt. NET Not too At all opinion
11/18/07 93 48 44 7 6 1 0
7/31/07 88 35 53 12 10 2 0
3. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will attend one of the Iowa presidential caucuses that will be held in your precinct in January. Are you absolutely certain you will attend, will you probably attend, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?
Certain Probably Chances Less than Will not No
to attend attend 50/50 50/50 attend (vol.) opinion
11/18/07 47 53 0 0 0 0
7/31/07 39 61 0 0 0 0
4. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) If the caucuses were being held today, would you attend the (Democratic Party caucus) or the (Republican Party caucus) in your precinct?
Democratic caucus Republican caucus
11/18/07 0 100
7/31/07 0 100
5. If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were: (Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul, and Fred Thompson), who would you support?
NET LEANED VOTE:
11/18/07 7/31/07
Mitt Romney 28 26
Mike Huckabee 24 8
Fred Thompson 15 13
Rudy Giuliani 13 14
John McCain 6 8
Ron Paul 6 2
Tom Tancredo 2 5
Duncan Hunter 1 1
Other (vol.) 0 1
Tommy Thompson NA 4
Sam Brownback NA 5
None of these (vol.) 1 4
Would not vote (vol.) * 0
No opinion 4 7
6. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely support (NAME) as your first choice, or is there a chance you could change your mind and support someone else as your first choice? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
11/18/07 - Summary Table*
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
support NET Good Unlikely opinion
Mike Huckabee 48 45 26 19 7
Mitt Romney 29 70 42 28 2
*Sample size too small for other candidates.
7. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) How enthusiastic are you about supporting (NAMED CANDIDATE) - very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
11/18/07 - Summary Table*
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
Mike Huckabee 94 50 44 4 4 0 2
Mitt Romney 94 28 65 6 6 0 0
*Sample size too small for other candidates.
8. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Who would your second choice be?
NET LEANED VOTE:
11/18/07 7/31/07
Mitt Romney 20 20
Rudy Giuliani 17 18
Fred Thompson 17 13
Mike Huckabee 16 4
John McCain 7 6
Tom Tancredo 6 4
Ron Paul 6 *
Duncan Hunter 1 2
Tommy Thompson NA 7
Sam Brownback NA 7
Newt Gingrich NA 6
Other (vol.) 2 3
None of these (vol.) 5 4
Would not vote (vol.) 0 *
No opinion 3 5
First choice/Second choice NET
11/18/07 7/31/07
Mitt Romney 47 43
Mike Huckabee 39 11
Fred Thompson 31 24
Rudy Giuliani 29 30
John McCain 12 14
Ron Paul 11 3
Tom Tancredo 8 9
Duncan Hunter 2 3
Tommy Thompson NA 11
Sam Brownback NA 11
Newt Gingrich NA 9
Other (vol.) 2 3
None of these (vol.) 6 7
Would not vote (vol.) * *
No opinion 7 12
9. What is the single most important issue in your choice for the Republican candidate for president?
11/18/07
Terrorism/National security 14
Immigration/Illegal
immigration 13
Abortion 10
Iraq/War in Iraq 10
Economy/Jobs 9
Health care 8
Morals/Family values 7
Taxes 6
Ethics/Honesty/Corruption
in government 4
Federal budget deficit 2
Education 1
Social Security 1
Foreign policy *
Energy/Ethanol *
Iran/Situation in Iran 0
Housing/Mortgages 0
Environment 0
None/Nothing 0
Other 10
No opinion 5
9a. (IF MENTIONED MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE) Is there one other issue that's nearly as important?
11/18/07
Iraq/War in Iraq 16
Immigration/Illegal
immigration 12
Economy/Jobs 8
Health care 8
Taxes 8
Terrorism/National security 7
Abortion 6
Morals/Family values 3
Federal budget deficit 3
Social Security 3
Foreign policy 3
Education 2
Ethics/Honesty/Corruption
in government 1
Energy/Ethanol 1
Environment *
Housing/Mortgages *
Iran/Situation in Iran *
None/Nothing 4
Other 8
No opinion 6
9/9a NET: Top two important issues combined.
11/18/07
Iraq/War in Iraq 24
Immigration/Illegal
immigration 24
Terrorism/National security 21
Economy/Jobs 16
Health care 16
Abortion 15
Taxes 13
Morals/Family values 10
Ethics/Honesty/Corruption
in government 5
Federal budget deficit 4
Social Security 4
Foreign policy 3
Education 2
Environment *
Housing/Mortgages *
Iran/Situation in Iran *
Energy/Ethanol 2
Other 15
No opinion 5
10. Regardless of who you may support, which of the Republican candidates do you think (ITEM)?
11/18/07 - Summary Table
Other/none/
Giuliani McCain Romney Huckabee Thompson no opin.
a. is the strongest
leader 31 6 30 12 9 12
b. best understands
the problems of
people like you 8 5 21 25 11 30
c. is the most honest
and trustworthy 4 8 25 26 13 25
d. has the best
experience to
be president 21 13 31 12 9 14
e. has campaigned the
hardest in Iowa 4 5 63 8 3 18
f. has the best chance
of getting elected
president in
November 2008 32 3 30 12 8 15
Trend:
a. is the strongest leader
11/18/07 7/31/07
Rudy Giuliani 31 26
Mitt Romney 30 23
Mike Huckabee 12 4
Fred Thompson 9 9
John McCain 6 11
Ron Paul 3 *
Tom Tancredo 1 2
Duncan Hunter * *
Newt Gingrich NA 5
Sam Brownback NA 4
Tommy Thompson NA 2
All of them * *
None of them 2 1
No opinion 6 12
b. best understands the problems of people like you
11/18/07 7/31/07
Mike Huckabee 25 10
Mitt Romney 21 21
Fred Thompson 11 9
Rudy Giuliani 8 13
Ron Paul 8 2
John McCain 5 7
Tom Tancredo 5 4
Duncan Hunter 1 1
Sam Brownback NA 7
Tommy Thompson NA 5
Newt Gingrich NA 3
All of them 3 1
None of them 6 5
No opinion 7 12
c. is the most honest and trustworthy
11/18/07 7/31/07
Mike Huckabee 26 10
Mitt Romney 25 21
Fred Thompson 13 11
John McCain 8 10
Ron Paul 6 2
Rudy Giuliani 4 7
Tom Tancredo 4 3
Duncan Hunter 1 1
Sam Brownback NA 7
Tommy Thompson NA 5
Newt Gingrich NA 3
All of them 3 1
None of them 5 5
No opinion 8 13
d. has the best experience to be president
11/18/07 7/31/07
Mitt Romney 31 21
Rudy Giuliani 21 22
John McCain 13 18
Mike Huckabee 12 4
Fred Thompson 9 5
Ron Paul 3 1
Tom Tancredo 1 *
Duncan Hunter * *
Newt Gingrich NA 8
Tommy Thompson NA 4
Sam Brownback NA 3
All of them 1 *
None of them 2 2
No opinion 7 12
e. has campaigned the hardest in Iowa
11/18/07 7/31/07
Mitt Romney 63 49
Mike Huckabee 8 1
John McCain 5 7
Rudy Giuliani 4 6
Fred Thompson 3 *
Ron Paul 2 *
Tom Tancredo 1 4
Duncan Hunter 0 0
Tommy Thompson NA 5
Sam Brownback NA 4
Newt Gingrich NA 1
All of them 2 2
None of them 3 5
No opinion 11 16
f. has the best chance of getting elected president in November 2008
11/18/07 7/31/07
Rudy Giuliani 32 31
Mitt Romney 30 26
Mike Huckabee 12 1
Fred Thompson 8 11
John McCain 3 5
Ron Paul 2 1
Tom Tancredo * 1
Duncan Hunter 0 0
Newt Gingrich NA 3
Tommy Thompson NA 3
Sam Brownback NA 2
All of them * 0
None of them 4 3
No opinion 9 14
11. Regardless of who you may support, who do you trust most to handle (ITEM)?
11/18/07 - Summary Table
Other/None/
Giuliani McCain Romney Huckabee Thompson No opinion
a. The economy 15 5 36 16 11 17
b. The federal budget
deficit 13 5 35 16 10 21
c. The U.S. campaign
against terrorism 33 15 15 10 11 17
d. Immigration issues 9 9 27 13 11 32
e. The situation
in Iraq 19 20 19 12 11 19
f. Social issues, such
as abortion and
gay civil unions 11 4 25 28 16 16
a. The economy
11/18/07
Mitt Romney 36
Mike Huckabee 16
Rudy Giuliani 15
Fred Thompson 11
John McCain 5
Ron Paul 5
Duncan Hunter 1
Tom Tancredo 1
All of them *
None of them 2
No opinion 8
b. The federal budget deficit
11/18/07
Mitt Romney 35
Mike Huckabee 16
Rudy Giuliani 13
Fred Thompson 10
Ron Paul 8
John McCain 5
Tom Tancredo 1
Duncan Hunter *
All of them 1
None of them 4
No opinion 7
c. The U.S. campaign against terrorism
11/18/07
Rudy Giuliani 33
John McCain 15
Mitt Romney 15
Fred Thompson 11
Mike Huckabee 10
Ron Paul 5
Tom Tancredo 4
Duncan Hunter 1
All of them 1
None of them 2
No opinion 4
d. Immigration issues
11/18/07
Mitt Romney 27
Mike Huckabee 13
Tom Tancredo 13
Fred Thompson 11
Rudy Giuliani 9
John McCain 9
Ron Paul 6
Duncan Hunter 1
All of them 1
None of them 3
No opinion 8
e. The situation in Iraq
11/18/07 7/31/07
Rudy Giuliani 19 17
John McCain 20 21
Mitt Romney 19 15
Mike Huckabee 12 3
Duncan Hunter 1 1
Tom Tancredo 3 1
Ron Paul 5 1
Fred Thompson 11 8
All of them 1 1
None of them 3 7
No opinion 6 16
*7/31/07: "Regardless of who you may support, which of the Republican candidates do you think is best able to handle the situation in Iraq?"
f. Social issues, such as abortion and gay civil unions
11/18/07
Mike Huckabee 28
Mitt Romney 25
Fred Thompson 16
Rudy Giuliani 11
Ron Paul 6
John McCain 4
Tom Tancredo 2
Duncan Hunter 1
All of them *
None of them 2
No opinion 6
12. So far in the Republican campaign, have you (ITEM)?
11/18/07 - Summary Table
Yes No No op.
a. been called on the telephone by any of the campaigns 58 41 1
b. attended a campaign event 29 71 0
c. contributed money to any of the presidential candidates 15 85 *
d. visited any of the candidates' Web sites on the Internet 33 67 *
e. received e-mails from any of the campaigns 29 70 1
f. yourself personally spoken with or shaken the hand of
any of the Republican candidates or not 19 81 0
Trend where available:
a. been called on the telephone by any of the campaigns
Yes No No opinion
11/18/07 58 41 1
7/31/07 63 36 *
b. attended a campaign event
Yes No No opinion
11/18/07 29 71 0
7/31/07 23 77 *
c. contributed money to any of the presidential candidates
Yes No No opinion
11/18/07 15 85 *
7/31/07 10 90 *
d. visited any of the candidates' Web sites on the Internet
Yes No No opinion
11/18/07 33 67 *
7/31/07 28 72 0
e. received e-mails from any of the campaigns
Yes No No opinion
11/18/07 29 70 1
7/31/07 24 74 1
f. No trend.
13. (IF MET CANDIDATE, Q12f) Who'd you meet?
12f/13A NET:
11/18/07
Have met candidate NET 19
Mitt Romney 6
Mike Huckabee 5
John McCain 4
Rudy Giuliani 3
Tom Tancredo 3
Tommy Thompson 2
Duncan Hunter 2
Sam Brownback 2
Ron Paul 1
Fred Thompson 1
Newt Gingrich *
Other 1
No opinion *
Have not met candidate 81
No opinion 0
14. Have you attended any previous Iowa caucuses, or will this be your first caucus?
Have attended First caucus No opinion
11/18/07 66 34 *
7/31/07 76 24 0
15. Which of these is more important to you in a candidate for president: (strength and experience) or (a new direction and new ideas)?
Strength and New direction Both Neither No
experience and new ideas (vol.) (vol.) opinion
11/18/07 70 22 6 * 2
7/31/07 70 21 8 1 1
16. Which best describes your family's financial situation? Do you feel as if you (are getting ahead financially), have just enough money to maintain your standard of living, or (are falling behind financially)?
Getting Just enough Falling No
ahead to maintain behind opinion
11/18/07 46 45 9 1
17. As you may know, periods of economic growth are followed by periods of recession. Do you think a recession over the next year is very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely or very unlikely?
------- Likely ------ ----- Unlikely ------ No
NET Very Somewhat NET Somewhat Very opinion
11/18/07 61 18 42 36 28 8 3
18. Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?
------ Legal ------ ----- Illegal -----
All Most Most All No
NET cases cases NET cases cases opinion
11/18/07 23 6 17 75 51 24 1
