Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone December 13-17, 2007, among a random sample of 652 Iowans likely to vote in the Democratic caucus. The results have a four percentage point margin of sampling error. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
*= less than 0.5 percent
1. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) Are you registered to vote in Iowa at your present address, or not?
Yes No No opinion
12/17/07 100 0 0
11/18/07 100 0 0
7/31/07 100 0 0
2. How closely are you following the 2008 presidential campaign: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?
---- Closely ----- ---- Not closely ----- No
NET Very Smwt. NET Not too At all opinion
12/17/07 95 55 40 5 3 2 *
11/18/07 95 53 42 5 4 1 0
7/31/07 88 42 46 12 9 3 *
3. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will attend one of the Iowa presidential caucuses that will be held in your precinct in January. Are you absolutely certain you will attend, will you probably attend, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?
Certain Probably Chances Less than Will not No
to attend attend 50/50 50/50 attend (vol.) opinion
12/17/07 65 35 0 0 0 0
11/18/07 61 39 0 0 0 0
7/31/07 50 50 0 0 0 0
4. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) If the caucuses were being held today, would you attend the (Democratic Party caucus) or the (Republican Party caucus) in your precinct?
Democratic caucus Republican caucus
12/17/07 100 0
11/18/07 100 0
7/31/07 100 0
5. If the Democratic caucus were being held today, and the candidates were: (Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, and Dennis Kucinich), who would you support?
NET LEANED VOTE:
12/17/07 11/18/07 7/31/07
Barack Obama 33 30 27
Hillary Clinton 29 26 26
John Edwards 20 22 26
Bill Richardson 8 11 11
Joe Biden 4 4 2
Dennis Kucinich 1 2 2
Chris Dodd 1 1 1
Other (vol.) * 1 0
None of these (vol.) * * 2
No opinion 3 3 4
*Asked Mike Gravel 11/18 and previous.
6. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely support (NAME) as your first choice, or is there a chance you could change your mind and support someone else as your first choice? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
support NET Unlikely Good opinion
12/17/07 63 33 16 18 4
11/18/07 55 43 23 20 2
Trend:
Hillary Clinton
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
support NET Unlikely Good opinion
12/17/07 70 28 18 10 2
11/18/07 57 43 24 19 1
John Edwards
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
support NET Unlikely Good opinion
12/17/07 63 33 12 21 4
11/18/07 53 43 27 16 4
Barack Obama
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
support NET Unlikely Good opinion
12/17/07 55 40 23 17 5
11/18/07 56 43 22 21 1
*Sample size too small for other candidates.
7. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) How enthusiastic are you about supporting (NAMED CANDIDATE) - very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
12/17/07 97 56 41 2 2 0 *
11/18/07 95 49 46 4 3 * 1
Trend:
Hillary Clinton
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
12/17/07 95 59 35 5 5 0 *
11/18/07 96 49 47 4 4 0 0
John Edwards
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
12/17/07 98 56 42 2 2 0 *
11/18/07 94 48 46 6 5 1 0
Barack Obama
--- Enthusiastic -- ---- Not enthusiastic ---- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
12/17/07 98 49 49 2 2 0 0
11/18/07 99 51 47 * 0 * 1
*Sample size too small for other candidates.
8. (IF NAMED CLINTON, OBAMA OR EDWARDS) Who would your second choice be?
NET LEANED VOTE:
12/17/07
John Edwards 27
Barack Obama 24
Hillary Clinton 21
Joe Biden 8
Bill Richardson 8
Chris Dodd 2
Dennis Kucinich 1
Other (vol.) 1
None of these (vol.) 6
Would not vote (vol.) 1
No opinion 2
8a. (IF NAMED RICHARDSON, BIDEN, DODD, OR KUCINICH) If the only three viable candidates in your precinct were (Clinton), (Edwards) and (Obama), who would you support as your second choice?
Clinton Obama Edwards None/no one (vol.) No opinion
12/17/07 16 29 41 7 7
5/5a/8a NET
12/17/07
Barack Obama 37
Hillary Clinton 31
John Edwards 26
Other (vol.) 0
None of these (vol.) 1
No opinion 4
9. What is the single most important issue in your choice for the Democratic candidate for president?
12/17/07 11/18/07
Health care 28 26
Iraq/War in Iraq 23 33
Economy/Jobs 12 10
Education 6 3
Ethics/Honesty/Corruption
in government 4 5
Foreign policy 3 2
Immigration/Illegal
immigration 2 2
Terrorism/National security 2 1
Environment 1 2
Morals/Family values 1 1
Energy/Ethanol 1 1
Abortion * 1
Federal budget deficit * 1
Global warming * *
Social Security * 1
Taxes * 0
Farming/Agriculture issues * *
Iran/Situation in Iran 0 *
None/Nothing * 1
Other 11 8
No opinion 3 3
9a. (IF MENTIONED MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE) Is there one other issue that's nearly as important?
12/17/07 11/18/07
Iraq/War in Iraq 26 23
Health care 19 24
Economy/Jobs 12 12
Education 10 7
Immigration/Illegal
immigration 5 4
Foreign policy 2 4
Environment 2 3
Social Security 2 2
Taxes 2 2
Energy/Ethanol 1 2
Terrorism/National security 1 1
Federal budget deficit 1 1
Ethics/Honesty/Corruption
in government 1 1
Farming/Agriculture issues 1 *
Abortion * 1
Morals/Family values * 1
Global warming 0 2
Iran/Situation in Iran 0 1
Housing/Mortgages 0 *
None/Nothing 4 4
Other 6 4
No opinion 6 3
9/9a NET: Top two important issues combined.
12/17/07 11/18/07
Iraq/War in Iraq 48 55
Health care 46 50
Economy/Jobs 24 21
Education 16 10
Immigration/Illegal
immigration 6
Foreign policy 5 3
Ethics/Honesty/Corruption
in government 5 6
Environment 3 4
Terrorism/National security 3 1
Social Security 2 5
Energy/Ethanol 2 3
Morals/Family values 2 2
Taxes 2 2
Federal budget deficit 1 2
Farming/Agriculture issues 1 1
Abortion * 2
Global warming * 2
Iran/Situation in Iran 0 1
Housing/Mortgages 0 *
None/Nothing * 1
Other 15 12
No opinion 3 3
10. Regardless of who you may support, which of the Democratic candidates do you think (ITEM) - (Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, or Dennis Kucinich)?
12/17/07 - Summary Table
Other/None/
Clinton Edwards Obama Richardson No opinion
a. is the strongest leader 36 15 28 6 14
b. best understands the
problems of people
like you 25 24 31 7 14
c. is the most honest and
trustworthy 18 21 34 7 20
d. has the best experience
to be president 45 15 9 11 21
e. has campaigned the
hardest in Iowa 33 21 32 1 14
f. has the best chance of
getting elected president
in November 2008 35 18 33 2 12
Trend:
a. is the strongest leader
12/17/07 11/18/07 7/31/07
Hillary Clinton 36 32 36
Barack Obama 28 27 23
John Edwards 15 17 18
Bill Richardson 6 10 9
Joe Biden 6 6 2
Chris Dodd 2 * *
Dennis Kucinich 1 * 1
Mike Gravel NA 0 0
All of them 1 * *
None of them 1 1 2
No opinion 4 6 9
b. best understands the problems of people like you
12/17/07 11/18/07 7/31/07
Barack Obama 31 30 27
Hillary Clinton 25 20 22
John Edwards 24 25 25
Bill Richardson 7 9 9
Joe Biden 2 4 1
Chris Dodd 2 * 2
Dennis Kucinich 1 3 2
Mike Gravel NA 0 *
All of them 2 2 1
None of them 2 3 4
No opinion 3 4 6
c. is the most honest and trustworthy
12/17/07 11/18/07 7/31/07
Barack Obama 34 31 30
John Edwards 21 20 24
Hillary Clinton 18 15 14
Bill Richardson 7 13 8
Joe Biden 4 4 2
Dennis Kucinich 3 5 3
Chris Dodd 3 1 2
Mike Gravel NA * *
All of them 3 4 4
None of them 4 3 5
No opinion 3 4 9
d. has the best experience to be president
12/17/07 11/18/07 7/31/07
Hillary Clinton 45 38 50
John Edwards 15 16 15
Bill Richardson 11 16 13
Joe Biden 10 9 5
Barack Obama 9 11 7
Chris Dodd 3 1 2
Dennis Kucinich * 1 *
Mike Gravel NA 0 0
All of them 2 1 2
None of them 3 1 3
No opinion 4 6 4
e. has campaigned the hardest in Iowa
12/17/07 11/18/07 7/31/07
Hillary Clinton 33 34 30
Barack Obama 32 26 22
John Edwards 21 25 29
Bill Richardson 1 2 3
Chris Dodd 1 * 1
Dennis Kucinich 0 0 0
Joe Biden * 1 0
Mike Gravel NA 0 0
All of them 7 4 3
None of them * * 1
No opinion 5 8 10
f. has the best chance of getting elected president in November 2008
12/17/07 11/18/07 7/31/07
Hillary Clinton 35 39 35
Barack Obama 33 25 23
John Edwards 18 22 22
Bill Richardson 2 2 4
Joe Biden 1 2 1
Chris Dodd 1 * *
Dennis Kucinich 0 1 *
Mike Gravel NA 0 0
All of them 1 * 1
None of them 1 1 2
No opinion 7 8 12
11. Regardless of who you may support, who do you trust most to handle (ITEM)?
12/17/07 - Summary Table
Other/None/
Clinton Edwards Obama Richardson No opinion
a. The economy 33 21 26 7 13
b. Health care 40 22 23 4 11
e. The situation in Iraq 27 14 28 8 22
Trend:
a. The economy
12/17/07 11/18/07
Hillary Clinton 33 28
Barack Obama 26 27
John Edwards 21 21
Bill Richardson 7 7
Joe Biden 3 5
Chris Dodd 2 2
Dennis Kucinich 1 2
Mike Gravel NA 0
All of them 2 1
None of them 1 *
No opinion 3 6
b. Health care
12/17/07 11/18/07
Hillary Clinton 40 36
Barack Obama 23 20
John Edwards 22 27
Bill Richardson 4 6
Chris Dodd 2 1
Dennis Kucinich 2 1
Joe Biden 1 2
Mike Gravel NA *
All of them 1 *
None of them 2 1
No opinion 4 4
e. The situation in Iraq
12/17/07 11/18/07 7/31/07*
Barack Obama 28 26 17
Hillary Clinton 27 23 29
John Edwards 14 15 16
Joe Biden 11 8 5
Bill Richardson 8 15 12
Chris Dodd 2 1 2
Dennis Kucinich 1 3 1
Mike Gravel NA * 0
All of them 2 1 2
None of them 2 3 5
No opinion 4 5 12
*7/31/07: "Regardless of who you may support, which of the Democratic candidates do you think is best able to handle the situation in Iraq?"
12. Regardless of who you may support, do you think Hillary Clinton is or is not willing enough to say what she really thinks about the issues?
Is Is not No opinion
12/17/07 59 37 4
11/18/07 50 45 5
13. Regardless of who you may support, do you think Barack Obama does or does not have the kind of experience it takes to serve effectively as president?
Does Does not No opinion
12/17/07 61 35 4
14. Have you attended any previous Iowa caucuses, or will this be your first caucus?
Have attended First caucus No opinion
12/17/07 55 45 0
11/18/07 63 36 *
7/31/07 68 31 *
15. Which of these is more important to you in a candidate for president: (strength and experience) or (a new direction and new ideas)?
Strength and New direction Both Neither No
experience and new ideas (vol.) (vol.) opinion
12/17/07 33 56 10 1 1
11/18/07 33 55 11 * 1
7/31/07 39 49 11 * 1
16. How would you describe the tone of the Democratic caucus campaign so far? Would you say it has been mostly positive, about equally positive and negative, or mostly negative in tone?
Mostly Equally positive Mostly No
positive and negative negative opinion
12/17/07 70 25 3 2
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