Washington Post-ABC News Poll

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone December 13-17, 2007, among a random sample of 652 Iowans likely to vote in the Democratic caucus. The results have a four percentage point margin of sampling error. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

*= less than 0.5 percent

1. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) Are you registered to vote in Iowa at your present address, or not?

            Yes   No   No opinion
12/17/07   100    0        0 
11/18/07   100    0        0 
7/31/07    100    0        0

2. How closely are you following the 2008 presidential campaign: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?

        
           ---- Closely -----   ---- Not closely -----     No
           NET   Very   Smwt.   NET   Not too   At all   opinion
12/17/07   95     55     40      5        3        2        *
11/18/07   95     53     42      5        4        1        0
7/31/07    88     42     46     12        9        3        *


3. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will attend one of the Iowa presidential caucuses that will be held in your precinct in January. Are you absolutely certain you will attend, will you probably attend, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

            
            Certain    Probably   Chances   Less than     Will not        No 
           to attend    attend     50/50      50/50     attend (vol.)   opinion
12/17/07      65          35         0          0             0            0
11/18/07      61          39         0          0             0            0
7/31/07       50          50         0          0             0            0

4. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) If the caucuses were being held today, would you attend the (Democratic Party caucus) or the (Republican Party caucus) in your precinct?

          
           Democratic caucus   Republican caucus
12/17/07         100                   0
11/18/07         100                   0 
7/31/07          100                   0

5. If the Democratic caucus were being held today, and the candidates were: (Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, and Dennis Kucinich), who would you support?

NET LEANED VOTE: 

                        12/17/07   11/18/07   7/31/07
Barack Obama               33         30        27
Hillary Clinton            29         26        26
John Edwards               20         22        26
Bill Richardson             8         11        11
Joe Biden                   4          4         2
Dennis Kucinich             1          2         2
Chris Dodd                  1          1         1
Other (vol.)                *          1         0
None of these (vol.)        *          *         2
No opinion                  3          3         4
*Asked Mike Gravel 11/18 and previous.


6. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely support (NAME) as your first choice, or is there a chance you could change your mind and support someone else as your first choice? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?

            Definitely   -Chance change mind -     No 
            support     NET   Unlikely   Good   opinion
12/17/07       63       33       16       18       4  
11/18/07       55       43       23       20       2 

Trend: 

Hillary Clinton

           Definitely   -Chance change mind -     No 
            support     NET   Unlikely   Good   opinion
12/17/07       70       28       18       10       2
11/18/07       57       43       24       19       1

John Edwards

           Definitely   -Chance change mind -     No 
            support     NET   Unlikely   Good   opinion
12/17/07       63       33       12       21       4
11/18/07       53       43       27       16       4

Barack Obama

           Definitely   -Chance change mind -     No 
            support     NET   Unlikely   Good   opinion
12/17/07       55       40       23       17       5
11/18/07       56       43       22       21       1

*Sample size too small for other candidates.

7. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) How enthusiastic are you about supporting (NAMED CANDIDATE) - very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?

           --- Enthusiastic --   ---- Not enthusiastic ----     No
           NET   Very   Fairly   NET   Not too   Not at all   opinion
12/17/07   97     56      41      2       2           0          *
11/18/07   95     49      46      4       3           *          1

Trend:

Hillary Clinton

           --- Enthusiastic --   ---- Not enthusiastic ----     No
           NET   Very   Fairly   NET   Not too   Not at all   opinion
12/17/07   95     59      35      5       5           0          *
11/18/07   96     49      47      4       4           0          0

John Edwards

           --- Enthusiastic --   ---- Not enthusiastic ----     No
           NET   Very   Fairly   NET   Not too   Not at all   opinion
12/17/07   98     56      42      2       2           0          *
11/18/07   94     48      46      6       5           1          0

Barack Obama

           --- Enthusiastic --   ---- Not enthusiastic ----     No
           NET   Very   Fairly   NET   Not too   Not at all   opinion
12/17/07   98     49      49      2       2           0          0
11/18/07   99     51      47      *       0           *          1

*Sample size too small for other candidates.

8. (IF NAMED CLINTON, OBAMA OR EDWARDS) Who would your second choice be?

    
NET LEANED VOTE: 

                        12/17/07   
John Edwards               27      
Barack Obama               24      
Hillary Clinton            21      
Joe Biden                   8      
Bill Richardson             8      
Chris Dodd                  2      
Dennis Kucinich             1      
Other (vol.)                1      
None of these (vol.)        6      
Would not vote (vol.)       1      
No opinion                  2      


8a. (IF NAMED RICHARDSON, BIDEN, DODD, OR KUCINICH) If the only three viable candidates in your precinct were (Clinton), (Edwards) and (Obama), who would you support as your second choice?

           Clinton   Obama   Edwards   None/no one (vol.)   No opinion	
12/17/07      16       29      41             7                  7


5/5a/8a NET

                        12/17/07   
Barack Obama               37      
Hillary Clinton            31      
John Edwards               26      
Other (vol.)                0      
None of these (vol.)        1      
No opinion                  4      

    

9. What is the single most important issue in your choice for the Democratic candidate for president?

                              
                              12/17/07   11/18/07
Health care                      28         26
Iraq/War in Iraq                 23         33
Economy/Jobs                     12         10
Education                         6          3
Ethics/Honesty/Corruption 
 in government                    4          5
Foreign policy                    3          2
Immigration/Illegal 
 immigration                      2          2
Terrorism/National security       2          1
Environment                       1          2 
Morals/Family values              1          1
Energy/Ethanol                    1          1
Abortion                          *          1
Federal budget deficit            *          1
Global warming                    *          *
Social Security                   *          1
Taxes                             *          0
Farming/Agriculture issues        *          *
Iran/Situation in Iran            0          * 
None/Nothing                      *          1
Other                            11          8
No opinion                        3          3

9a. (IF MENTIONED MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE) Is there one other issue that's nearly as important?

                              12/17/07   11/18/07
Iraq/War in Iraq                 26         23
Health care                      19         24
Economy/Jobs                     12         12
Education                        10          7
Immigration/Illegal 
 immigration                      5          4
Foreign policy                    2          4
Environment                       2          3
Social Security                   2          2
Taxes                             2          2
Energy/Ethanol                    1          2
Terrorism/National security       1          1
Federal budget deficit            1          1
Ethics/Honesty/Corruption 
 in government                    1          1
Farming/Agriculture issues        1          *
Abortion                          *          1
Morals/Family values              *          1
Global warming                    0          2
Iran/Situation in Iran            0          1
Housing/Mortgages                 0          *
None/Nothing                      4          4
Other                             6          4
No opinion                        6          3


9/9a NET: Top two important issues combined.

                              12/17/07   11/18/07
Iraq/War in Iraq                 48         55
Health care                      46         50
Economy/Jobs                     24         21
Education                        16         10
Immigration/Illegal 
 immigration                      6          
Foreign policy                    5          3
Ethics/Honesty/Corruption 
 in government                    5          6
Environment                       3          4 
Terrorism/National security       3          1
Social Security                   2          5
Energy/Ethanol                    2          3
Morals/Family values              2          2
Taxes                             2          2
Federal budget deficit            1          2
Farming/Agriculture issues        1          1
Abortion                          *          2
Global warming                    *          2
Iran/Situation in Iran            0          1
Housing/Mortgages                 0          *
None/Nothing                      *          1
Other                            15         12
No opinion                        3          3

10. Regardless of who you may support, which of the Democratic candidates do you think (ITEM) - (Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, or Dennis Kucinich)?

12/17/07 - Summary Table

                                                                    Other/None/
                               Clinton  Edwards  Obama  Richardson  No opinion
a. is the strongest leader        36      15      28         6          14
b. best understands the 
   problems of people 
   like you                       25      24      31         7          14
c. is the most honest and 
   trustworthy                    18      21      34         7          20
d. has the best experience 
   to be president                45      15       9        11          21
e. has campaigned the 
   hardest in Iowa                33      21      32         1          14
f. has the best chance of 
   getting elected president    
   in November 2008               35      18      33         2          12


Trend:

a. is the strongest leader

                  12/17/07   11/18/07   7/31/07
Hillary Clinton      36         32        36
Barack Obama         28         27        23
John Edwards         15         17        18
Bill Richardson       6         10         9
Joe Biden             6          6         2
Chris Dodd            2          *         *
Dennis Kucinich       1          *         1
Mike Gravel          NA          0         0
All of them           1          *         *
None of them          1          1         2
No opinion            4          6         9

b. best understands the problems of people like you

                  12/17/07   11/18/07   7/31/07
Barack Obama         31         30        27
Hillary Clinton      25         20        22
John Edwards         24         25        25
Bill Richardson       7          9         9
Joe Biden             2          4         1
Chris Dodd            2          *         2
Dennis Kucinich       1          3         2
Mike Gravel          NA          0         *
All of them           2          2         1
None of them          2          3         4
No opinion            3          4         6

c. is the most honest and trustworthy

                  12/17/07   11/18/07   7/31/07
Barack Obama         34         31        30
John Edwards         21         20        24
Hillary Clinton      18         15        14
Bill Richardson       7         13         8
Joe Biden             4          4         2
Dennis Kucinich       3          5         3
Chris Dodd            3          1         2
Mike Gravel          NA          *         *
All of them           3          4         4
None of them          4          3         5
No opinion            3          4         9

d. has the best experience to be president

                  12/17/07   11/18/07   7/31/07
Hillary Clinton      45         38        50
John Edwards         15         16        15
Bill Richardson      11         16        13
Joe Biden            10          9         5
Barack Obama          9         11         7
Chris Dodd            3          1         2
Dennis Kucinich       *          1         *
Mike Gravel          NA          0         0
All of them           2          1         2
None of them          3          1         3
No opinion            4          6         4

e. has campaigned the hardest in Iowa

                  12/17/07   11/18/07   7/31/07
Hillary Clinton      33         34        30
Barack Obama         32         26        22
John Edwards         21         25        29
Bill Richardson       1          2         3
Chris Dodd            1          *         1
Dennis Kucinich       0          0         0
Joe Biden             *          1         0
Mike Gravel          NA          0         0
All of them           7          4         3
None of them          *          *         1
No opinion            5          8        10

f. has the best chance of getting elected president in November 2008

                  12/17/07   11/18/07   7/31/07
Hillary Clinton      35         39        35
Barack Obama         33         25        23
John Edwards         18         22        22
Bill Richardson       2          2         4
Joe Biden             1          2         1
Chris Dodd            1          *         *
Dennis Kucinich       0          1         *
Mike Gravel          NA          0         0
All of them           1          *         1
None of them          1          1         2
No opinion            7          8        12

11. Regardless of who you may support, who do you trust most to handle (ITEM)?

12/17/07 - Summary Table

                                                                    Other/None/
                           Clinton   Edwards   Obama   Richardson   No opinion
a. The economy                33       21       26          7           13
b. Health care                40       22       23          4           11
e. The situation in Iraq      27       14       28          8           22

Trend:
a. The economy

                  12/17/07   11/18/07
Hillary Clinton      33         28 
Barack Obama         26         27 
John Edwards         21         21 
Bill Richardson       7          7 
Joe Biden             3          5 
Chris Dodd            2          2 
Dennis Kucinich       1          2 
Mike Gravel          NA          0 
All of them           2          1 
None of them          1          * 
No opinion            3          6 

b. Health care

                  12/17/07   11/18/07
Hillary Clinton      40         36 
Barack Obama         23         20 
John Edwards         22         27 
Bill Richardson       4          6 
Chris Dodd            2          1 
Dennis Kucinich       2          1 
Joe Biden             1          2 
Mike Gravel          NA          * 
All of them           1          * 
None of them          2          1 
No opinion            4          4

e. The situation in Iraq
 
                  12/17/07  11/18/07   7/31/07*
Barack Obama         28        26        17
Hillary Clinton      27        23        29
John Edwards         14        15        16
Joe Biden            11         8         5
Bill Richardson       8        15        12
Chris Dodd            2         1         2
Dennis Kucinich       1         3         1
Mike Gravel          NA         *         0
All of them           2         1         2
None of them          2         3         5
No opinion            4         5        12
*7/31/07: "Regardless of who you may support, which of the Democratic candidates do you think is best able to handle the situation in Iraq?"


12. Regardless of who you may support, do you think Hillary Clinton is or is not willing enough to say what she really thinks about the issues?

           Is   Is not   No opinion 
12/17/07   59     37          4 
11/18/07   50     45          5 

13. Regardless of who you may support, do you think Barack Obama does or does not have the kind of experience it takes to serve effectively as president?

           Does   Does not   No opinion
12/17/07    61       35           4

14. Have you attended any previous Iowa caucuses, or will this be your first caucus?

           Have attended   First caucus   No opinion
12/17/07        55              45             0
11/18/07        63              36             *
7/31/07         68              31             *

15. Which of these is more important to you in a candidate for president: (strength and experience) or (a new direction and new ideas)?

        
           Strength and   New direction    Both    Neither     No 
            experience    and new ideas   (vol.)   (vol.)    opinion
12/17/07        33             56           10        1         1 
11/18/07        33             55           11        *         1
7/31/07         39             49           11        *         1

16. How would you describe the tone of the Democratic caucus campaign so far? Would you say it has been mostly positive, about equally positive and negative, or mostly negative in tone?

            Mostly    Equally positive    Mostly      No 
           positive     and negative     negative   opinion 
12/17/07      70             25              3         2     

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