Washington Post Poll

This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone October 11-15, 2012, among a random sample of 1,106 adult residents of Maryland. Interviews were conducted on both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The error margin is four points for the sample of 934 registered voters and for the sample of 843 likely voters. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt SRBI, Inc of New York, NY.

*= less than 0.5 percent

1. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Are you registered as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or something else?

              Democrat   Republican   Independent   Something else   No opinion
10/15/12 LV      57          26            14              3              *
10/15/12 RV      55          26            15              4              1
10/22/10 LV      59          30             9              2              *
10/22/10 RV      57          27            13              3              1
9/26/10  LV      58          29            10              1              1
9/26/10  RV      57          26            13              3              2
5/6/10   RV      56          27            13              3              1
10/20/08 RV      57          29            14              *              *
10/22/07 RV      56          25            14              4              1
10/26/06 RV      56          30            11              3              1 
6/25/06  RV      51          29            14              4              1

2. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) How closely are you following the 2012 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not so closely, or not closely at all?

                ---- Closely -----   ---- Not closely -----     No
                NET   Very   Smwt    NET   Not so    At all   opinion
10/15/12   LV   93     60     33      7       4         3        *
10/15/12   RV   91     57     34      9       6         4        *
10/22/10*  LV   88     41     47     12       8         3        1
9/26/10*   RV   72     32     40     27      17        11        *
5/6/10*    RV   61     26     35     38      23        15        1 
10/22/07   RV   75     27     48     25      18         8        *
10/26/06** LV   91     49     42      9       8         2        * 
10/24/02*  LV   89     45     44     10       8         2        *
* “governor’s race” ** “U.S. Senate and governor’s races”

3. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

                                                     Don't think   Already  
              Certain  Probably  Chances  Less than   will vote     voted     No    
              to vote    vote     50/50     50/50       (vol.)      (vol.)  opinion
10/15/12  RV    91        5         2         2           *           *        0
10/22/10* RV    69       14         8         5           2          NA        1
9/26/10*  RV    71       14        10         4           1          NA        *
5/6/10*   RV    67       19        11         2           1          NA        *
10/20/08  RV    91        5         2         *           *           1        *
10/26/06* RV    72       13         7         4           1           1        1
*”governor and U.S. Senator” 

4. (IF CERTAIN TO VOTE) Do you think you’ll (vote in person at your polling place on Election Day), or (vote before Election Day by early voting or mail-in ballot)?

                Vote      Early voting/      Already
              in person   mail-in ballot   voted (vol.)   No opinion
10/15/12 LV      79             17              1              3
10/15/12 RV      79             17              1              3

5. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) If the presidential election were being held today and the candidates were (Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats) and (Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, the Republicans), for whom would you vote? Which candidates are you leaning toward, (Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats) or (Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, the Republicans)? (ASKED IF ALREADY VOTED) For whom did you vote?

NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE 
                               Other    Neither    Would not      No
              Obama   Romney   (vol.)   (vol.)    vote (vol.)   opinion
10/15/12 LV    60       36        *        2           0           2
10/15/12 RV    60       35        *        2           *           2

6. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Now turning to the U.S. Senate election in Maryland, if the 2012 election for the U.S. Senate were being held today, would you vote for (Ben Cardin, the Democrat), (Daniel Bongino, the Republican), Rob Sobhani, the independent candidate or Dean Ahmad, the libertarian candidate? Which one would you lean toward right now?

NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE
                                                   Other    Neither   Would not   No
              Cardin   Bongino   Sobhani   Ahmad   (vol.)   (vol.)   vote (vol.)  op.
10/15/12 LV     53        22       14        2        *        1           1       7
10/15/12 RV     53        21       14        2        *        1           1       8

7. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you think things in the state of Maryland are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

              Right direction   Wrong track   No opinion
10/15/12 LV         49               44            8
10/15/12 RV         48               44            8
1/26/12  RV         47               44            9
1/26/12             47               44            9
10/22/10 RV         46               48            6
9/26/10             40               49           11
5/6/10              39               49           12
10/20/08 RV         31               63            6
10/22/07            46               47            7
10/26/06 LV         57               39            5
6/25/06  RV         44               50            6
1/7/04              57               35            9
10/24/02 LV         42               51            7
10/22/98 RV         54               36           10
6/17/98             53               34           13
12/19/93            33               56           11

8. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Generally speaking, how would you rate the overall economy of Maryland: excellent, good, not-so-good or poor?

              - Excellent/Good-   --- Not-so-good/Poor ---     No
              NET   Exc.   Good   NET   Not-so-good   Poor   opinion
10/15/12 LV   53      3     50    46        34         12       1
10/15/12 RV   52      3     49    47        34         13       1
1/26/12  RV   48      2     45    51        37         14       1
1/26/12       47      3     44    52        39         13       1
10/22/10 RV   45      2     43    54        40         15       1
9/26/10       40      3     37    59        43         16       2
5/6/10        41      3     38    57        42         15       2 
10/22/07      64      6     58    35        24         10       1 
1/7/04        63      4     59    36        28          8       1 
10/24/02 LV   57      3     54    42        33          9       1
10/22/98 LV   76      8     67    23        18          4       2
6/17/98       75      8     67    23        17          6       3

9. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you approve or disapprove of the way Martin O’Malley is handling his job as governor?

               -------- Approve --------    ------- Disapprove ------    No
               NET   Strongly   Somewhat    NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opin.
10/15/12 LV    49       18         31       42       14         28        9
10/15/12 RV    49       18         31       41       14         28        9
1/26/12  RV    53       16         37       39       16         23        8  
1/26/12        55       16         39       36       15         21        9  
10/22/10 RV*   55       21         34       36       15         21        9 
9/26/10        57       20         37       33       16         17       11
5/6/10         54       17         37       34       17         17       12
10/20/08 RV    53       14         39       37       16         21       10
10/22/07       53       12         40       36       18         19       11
*“Regardless of how you may vote…”

Compare to:

Bob Ehrlich:
              ---------Approve---------   --------Disapprove-------    No   
              NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opin. 
10/26/06 LV   55       30         25      42       19         23        3
6/25/06  RV   56       21         36      41       21         20        3
1/7/04   RV   64       23         41      29       17         12        8
1/7/04   All  62       21         42      28       17         11       10    

Parris Glendening:

10/24/02 LV   37        9         29       58       22         37        4
10/22/98 LV   54       16         38       40       21         19        6
6/17/98  LV   55       14         41       36       19         18        9

10. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

              -------- Approve --------   ------- Disapprove ------     No   
              NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opinion
10/15/12 LV   61       43         18      36        8         28         3
10/15/12 RV   61       40         21      36        9         27         3
1/26/12  RV   64       39         25      34       10         24         2
1/26/12       65       39         26      33       10         23         2
10/22/10 RV   60       37         23      37        9         27         3
9/26/10       61       37         23      36       11         25         3
5/6/10        62       40         21      34       10         24         5

11. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?

              -------- Approve --------   ------- Disapprove ------     No   
              NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opinion
10/15/12 LV   58       36         22      40        7         32         2
10/15/12 RV   57       34         23      41        9         32         2

12. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) As you may know, Question 4 on the state ballot is the “Public Institutions of Higher Education - Tuition Rates” referendum. It would establish that individuals, including undocumented immigrants, are eligible to pay in-state tuition rates at Maryland community colleges so long as certain conditions are met, including graduation from a Maryland high school, filing of income taxes, intention to apply for permanent residency and, if required, registration for selective service. Such students would also be eligible for in-state tuition at a four-year college or university after completing 60 credit hours or graduating from a Maryland community college. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Question 4?

              ---------- Yes ----------   ----------- No ----------     No
              NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opinion
10/15/12 LV   59       41         18      35        6         30         5
10/15/12 RV   60       40         20      35        6         29         5

13. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) How concerned, if at all, would you be that there would be fewer opportunities for legal residents to attend Maryland colleges and universities - very concerned, somewhat concerned, not so concerned or not at all concerned?

              ----- Concerned -----   -- Not concerned ---      No
              NET   Very   Somewhat   NET   Not so   At all   opinion
10/15/12 LV   58     33       25      40      16       23        2
10/15/12 RV   58     33       25      40      17       22        2

14. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) As you may know, Question 6 on the state ballot is the “Civil Marriage Protection Act.” It would allow gay and lesbian couples to obtain a civil marriage license, provided they are not otherwise prohibited from marrying. It protects clergy from having to perform any particular marriage ceremony in violation of their religious beliefs, affirms that each religious faith has exclusive control over its own theological doctrine regarding who may marry, and provides that religious organizations and certain related entities are not required to provide goods, services, or benefits related to the celebration or promotion of marriage in violation of their religious beliefs. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Question 6?

              ---------- Yes ----------   ----------- No ----------     No
              NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opinion
10/15/12 LV   52       39         14      43        7          36        5
10/15/12 RV   52       38         14      42        7          35        6

Compare to:
Changing topics, would you favor or oppose a state law that would allow gay and
lesbian couples to get married? 

              Favor   Oppose   No opinion
1/26/12  RV    51       44          5
1/26/12        50       44          6
5/6/10         46       44         10 
10/22/07       44       51          5 
6/25/06  RV    42       56          3
1/7/04         35       58          7

15. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Which one of the following has had the biggest influence on your thinking on allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally — (a personal experience), (the views of your friends and family), (what you have seen or read in the media), (your religious beliefs), (your education), or something else?

                                            10/15/12   1/26/12
                                            RV   LV      RV 
Your religious beliefs                      35   36      36
A personal experience                       14   14      14
The views of your friends and family        10    9      14
Your education                              11   12      14
What you have seen or read in the media      4    4       4
Your personal beliefs and opinions (vol.)    4    4       2
The legal, Constitutional and fairness      
  issue (vol.)                               3    3       2
Something else                              14   14      12
No opinion                                   4    4       4

16. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) As you may know, Question 7 on the state ballot is the “Gaming Expansion Referendum.” It would allow the expansion of commercial gaming in Maryland to raise revenue for education by authorizing video lottery operators to offer “table games,” increasing the number of video lottery machines in the state and allowing a new video lottery facility in Prince George’s County. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Question 7?

              ---------- Yes ----------   ----------- No ----------     No
              NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opinion
10/15/12 LV   46       30         17      48        9          39        6
10/15/12 RV   47       30         17      47        9          38        6

Compare to:
As you may know, Question TWO is a constitutional amendment titled “Authorizing Video
Lottery Terminals – Slot Machines – to Fund Education.” It allows the state to issue
licenses for up to five slot machine locations to raise revenue PRIMARILY for public
schools, including construction and improvements. If the election were held today,
would you vote FOR or AGAINST slot machines in Maryland?

              -------- For --------  ------ Against ------           Would
                              Not           Not                       not   No
              NET  Strngly  strngly  NET  strngly  Strngly  Neither  vote   op.
10/20/08 LV   62     46       16     36      9        27       *       1     1
10/20/08 RV   63     45       18     35      9        26       *       1     1

Would you favor or oppose allowing slot-machine gambling at additional locations in
Maryland?

              Favor   Oppose   No opinion
1/26/12 RV     51       43          6
1/26/12        51       44          6
6/25/06 RV*    60       36          4
1/7/04         59       38          3
6/18/98**      55       41          3
* “… slot-machine gambling at horse-racing tracks in Maryland.”
** “Some people are discussing a proposal to allow…”

17. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) How many campaign advertisements, if any, have you seen or heard about Question 7 on the state ballot? A lot, a good amount, just some or none at all?

              ---- A lot/good amt. ----   ----- Some/None ------     No
              NET   A lot   Good amount   NET   Just some   None   opinion
10/15/12 LV   80     64         16        20        12        7       *
10/15/12 RV   79     62         17        21        13        8       *

18. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) In 2008, Maryland voters approved slot machine casinos at five locations in the state. Overall, do you think having slot machine casinos in Maryland has been a (good) thing or a (bad) thing for the state?

              Good     Bad     Both    Neither     No
              thing   thing   (vol.)    (vol.)   opinion 
10/15/12 LV    51       28       1        5        15  
10/15/12 RV    52       27       1        5        16  
1/26/12  RV    54       25       1        6        13   
1/26/12        54       27       1        5        12   
9/26/10*       56       31       4        2         7         
* “… and the first facility is scheduled to open next week.”

19. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) If Maryland expands the number of gaming locations in the state, how confident are you that they will produce more money for schools - very confident, somewhat confident, not so confident or not confident at all?

              ---- Confident ---   --- Not confident ---     No
              NET   Very   Smwt.   NET   Not so   At all   opinion
10/15/12 LV   43     10     33     55      20       35        2
10/15/12 RV   43     10     33     55      21       34        2

20. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) How concerned are you, if at all, that the expansion of casino gaming in Maryland will hurt the state by leading to more crime and other problems, such as gambling addiction -- very concerned, somewhat concerned, not so concerned or not at all concerned?

              --- Concerned ---   ---- Not concerned ---     No
              NET   Very   Smwt.   NET   Not so   At all   opinion
10/15/12 LV   60     25     34     40      17       23        *
10/15/12 RV   59     25     34     40      18       23        *

21. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Have you visited a casino to play slot machines in Maryland in the past year, or not? (IF YES) Was that in the past week, the past month, or before that?

              ------------------ Yes -------------------          No
              NET   Past week   Past month   Before that   No   opinion
10/15/12 LV   19        1            5          13         81      *
10/15/12 RV   19        1            5          13         81      *

22. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) In the past year, have you been to a casino in Delaware, Pennsylvania or West Virginia, or not?

              Yes   No   No opinion
10/15/12 LV   16    84       0
10/15/12 RV   16    84       0

23. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) If there were a casino at National Harbor in Prince George’s County, how often do you think you would go there to gamble: frequently, occasionally, rarely or never?

              --- Frequently/Occasionally ---   --- Rarely/Never ---     No                                                      
              NET   Frequently   Occasionally   NET   Rarely   Never   opinion
10/15/12 LV   11         1             9        89      22       66       *
10/15/12 RV   11         1            10        88      23       65       1

24. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you think Martin O’Malley would make a good president, or not?

              Yes   No   No opinion
10/15/12 LV   22    63       15
10/15/12 RV   22    62       16
1/26/12  RV   25    61       14
1/26/12       26    59       15

Compare to Virginia 10/12/06 – among likely voters

                Yes    No     No opinion
George Allen    35     56           9
Mark Warner     51     41           8

Questions 25 through 26 held for release.

901. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as:

                                                            
              Democrat   Republican   Independent   Other   No opinion  
10/15/12 LV      49         22            24          4         *   
10/15/12 RV      48         22            25          4         1   
1/26/12  RV      45         21            29          3         2   
10/22/10 RV      49         21            25          4         1   
9/26/10  RV      48         22            23          5         2   
5/6/10   RV      47         23            26          2         2   
10/20/08 RV      50         24            25          1         *   
10/22/07 RV      48         21            25          6         1   
10/26/06 RV      50         28            20          2         *   
1/7/04   RV      46         27            24          3         0   
10/24/02 RV      49         29            19          2         *   

***END***

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