Washington Post Poll

This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone July 13-18, 2006 among 1,350 randomly selected DC adults, 1,030 of whom reported they were currently registered to vote. With the exception of questions 9-10 and 32-35, the survey is based on voters only. The margin of sampling error for results based on all voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For registered Democrats (N=743) it is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, and plus or minus 4.5 points for likely Democratic voters (N=495). Fieldwork by TNS of Horsham, PA. LV=Likely Voter RV=Registered Voter Dem RV=Registered Democratic Voter *= less than 0.5 percent 1. Are you registered to vote in Washington DC, or haven't you had a chance to register?? Yes No No opin. 7/18/06 72 27 * 8/29/02 71 29 * 5/19/02 76 23 * 2. (IF REGISTERED) Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, an Independent, in the DC Statehood Green Party, or something else? Statehood/ Something No Dem. Repub. Indpt. Green Party else opin. 7/18/06 RV 74 7 13 1 3 2 8/29/02 RV 76 7 12 1 3 1 5/19/02 RV 74 8 13 1 2 1 3. (IF REGISTERED DEMOCRAT) Generally speaking, how interested are you in the current campaign for mayor in DC: would you say you are very interested, fairly interested, not too interested or not interested at all? ------Interested----- ------Not interested------ No NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opin. 7/18/06 82 50 32 17 12 5 1 4. (IF REGISTERED DEMOCRAT) This year's Democratic primary election for mayor is Tuesday, September 12. Some people have busier schedules than others. Because of this, some people who plan to vote can't always get around to it on election day. With your personal schedule in mind, I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the District of Columbia Democratic primary election on September 12. Are you absolutely certain to vote, very likely to vote, probably will vote, are the chances 50-50, or don't you think you will vote in that election? Certain Likely Probably Chances Don't think No to vote to vote vote 50/50 will vote opin. 7/18/06 64 17 8 6 4 * 8/29/02 66 12 9 8 4 1 5/5a. (IF REGISTERED DEMOCRAT) Suppose the primary election for mayor of the District were held today, and the candidates were (Michael Brown), (Linda Cropp), (Adrian Fenty), (Marie Johns), and (Vincent Orange). For whom would you vote? Which one are you leaning toward right now? Net Leaned Vote, Registered Democrats: Other None Would not No Brown Cropp Fenty Johns Orange (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 7/18/06 Dem RV 6 31 39 6 6 * 1 1 11 7/18/06 Dem LV 4 32 42 8 4 * 1 1 8 6. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE, Q5/5A) Would you say you strongly support or just somewhat support (CANDIDATE)? 7/18/06 Summary Table, Registered Democrats: Strongly Somewhat No opin. Linda Cropp 39 59 2 Adrian Fenty 56 43 1 Michael Brown* -- -- - Marie Johns* -- -- - Vincent Orange* -- -- - *Base too small to analyze 7/7a. (IF REGISTERED DEMOCRAT) Suppose the primary election for DC city council chairman were held today and the candidates were (Kathy Patterson) and (Vincent Gray). For whom would you vote? Which one are you leaning toward right now? Net Leaned Vote, Registered Democrats: Other Neither Would not No Patterson Gray (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 7/18/06 Dem RV 38 40 * 6 1 14 7/18/06 Dem LV 38 43 * 6 1 12 8. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE, Q7/7A) Would you say you strongly support or just somewhat support (CANDIDATE)? 7/18/06 Summary Table, Registered Democrats: Strongly Somewhat No opin. Kathy Patterson 36 62 1 Vincent Gray 34 65 1 9. Do you think things in the District of Columbia are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right Wrong Neither No direction track (vol.) opinion 7/18/06 RV 47 44 6 3 7/18/06 All 42 46 7 5 5/19/02 RV 54 35 7 4 5/19/02 All 54 33 8 5 2/7/00 69 22 6 3 8/27/98 LV 47 46 NA 7 5/18/98 31 58 4 6 5/4/97 20 71 6 2 5/19/96 14 78 NA 2 3/02/95 15 80 NA 5 10. In general, would you say the quality of life in the District of Columbia is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? Better Worse About the same No opinion 7/18/06 RV 35 27 37 1 7/18/06 All 32 28 37 2 5/19/02 RV 41 19 38 2 5/19/02 All 41 19 39 2 2/7/00 52 7 38 2 5/4/97 11 47 41 1 2/29/96 8 56 33 3 9/94 10 45 44 2 12/93 5 55 38 2 1/92 5 66 28 1 12/84 49 17 28 6 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Anthony Williams is handling his job as Mayor? Is that approve/disapprove strongly or just somewhat? Approve Disapprove -- No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opin. 7/18/06 RV 54 20 34 40 16 24 6 5/19/02 RV 64 24 40 29 11 18 7 5/19/02 All 64 22 42 28 11 17 8 2/7/00 77 36 40 17 9 7 7 Compare to Marion Barry: Approve Disapprove -- No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opin. 5/18/98 35 16 19 52 17 34 14 5/4/97 31 13 19 63 21 41 6 5/19/96 50 25 25 47 21 26 3 3/02/95 58 28 30 27 13 14 15 12. Which type of person would you prefer as the next mayor: (Someone with a lot of government service and a proven record), or (someone who may have less government experience but has new ideas and energy)? Lot of government service Less government experience, No and a proven record has new ideas and energy opin. 7/18/06 Dem RV 46 49 5 7/18/06 RV 46 50 5 12a. Which of these two statements comes closest to your own views: (After eight years of Anthony Williams, we need to elect a mayor who can set the city moving in a new direction), OR, (We need to keep the city moving in the direction Anthony Williams has been taking us)? New Same No direction direction opin. 7/18/06 Dem RV 55 41 4 7/18/06 RV 55 41 4 13. What is the biggest problem facing the District today, the one you want the next mayor to work the hardest to solve? 7/18/06 RV 5/19/02 RV 2/7/00 RV Crime/violence 38 22 19 Improving schools/education 24 19 19 Housing costs/Low income housing/ more/affordable housing 16 15 2 ECONOMIC (NET) 5 14 14 Creating more jobs/employment Opportunities 3 9 8 Economic development/improving quality of life 2 3 4 Improve tax structure 1 2 2 SERVICES: 5 11 18 Improving city services 4 8 14 Improve social services 1 3 4 Poverty/homelessness 2 1 3 Terrorism/Homeland Security/ Protecting city from attacks 1 2 NA Improve city government/increase efficiency/less corrupt 1 3 4 Want D.C to be self-governing/have representation in congress 1 3 2 Traffic/parking problems 1 2 2 Balanced budget/improve finances 1 1 2 Improving race relations/ equal opportunities * 2 4 Attracting/keeping residents in the city 0 * 1 Cooperating/working with D.C. council 0 * 1 Improving the image of the city nationally 0 * 1 Miscellaneous 2 2 3 Nothing 0 * 5 No opinion 3 4 3 14. (IF SAID "SCHOOLS/EDUCATION") Can you tell me the main reason why the schools are so important to you personally? 7/18/06 RV Future of city/country and importance of education 41 Own Children NET: 21 Has children in public school 10 Has children in private school 1 Other mentions of own children 9 Teaches or Works in education/school system 11 Schools are bad/need improvement 8 Experience/went to DC schools 4 Lack of good schools cause people to leave the city 2 Lack of good schools keeps people from moving here 1 Lack of good schools affects real estate/property values 1 Crime/violence in school system 1 Other 8 No opinion 2 15. How important do you think it is that DC's city council chairman be African-American: very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? -----Important----- -----Not important------ No NET Very Somewhat NET Not too Not at all opinion 7/18/06 RV 37 12 25 60 20 40 3 16. I am going to read you a few names. For each, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person, or perhaps you don't know enough to say. 7/18/06 RV Favorable Unfavorable No opinion a. Michael Brown 27 15 58 Dem RV 30 17 54 b. Linda Cropp 59 24 16 Dem RV 65 22 13 c. Adrian Fenty 59 16 25 Dem RV 63 16 21 d. Marie Johns 23 14 63 Dem RV 25 15 61 e. Vincent Orange 33 24 44 Dem RV 33 25 41 Trend where available: a,c,d,e. No trend. b. Linda Cropp Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 7/18/06 RV 59 24 16 2/7/00 RV 48 16 36 2/7/00 All 44 15 41 17. Generally speaking, how would you rate: 7/18/06 RV --Excellent/Good - Not Good/Poor No NET Excel. Good NET Not Poor op. a. District Police 53 6 47 43 30 13 4 b. District Public schools 15 1 14 78 35 43 7 c. Streets in good repair 46 5 41 53 32 21 2 d. 911 Emergency Response 34 4 30 46 28 18 19 e. Parks & recreation facilities 54 8 47 34 21 13 11 f. Department of Motor Vehicles 56 8 48 34 18 16 10 g. Caring for poor/disadvantaged 20 2 18 70 40 30 10 Full wording and trend where available: a. The job that District Police are doing -Excellent/Good- -Not Good/Poor-- No NET Excel. Good NET Not Good Poor opin. 7/18/06 RV 53 6 47 43 30 13 4 5/19/02 RV 66 8 58 30 20 10 4 5/19/02 All 65 8 57 31 21 10 4 2/7/00 63 9 54 33 23 10 4 5/18/98 49 7 42 45 29 16 5 5/4/97 68 15 53 30 21 9 2 b. The job that District Public schools are doing -Excellent/Good- -Not Good/Poor-- No NET Excel. Good NET Not Good Poor opin. 7/18/06 RV 15 1 14 78 35 43 7 5/19/02 RV 26 2 24 61 36 25 14 5/19/02 All 26 3 24 59 35 23 15 2/7/00 32 3 28 56 33 23 12 5/18/98 18 3 16 70 30 39 12 5/4/97 18 2 16 74 35 39 8 c. The job that the district is doing to keep the streets in good repair -Excellent/Good- -Not Good/Poor-- No NET Excel. Good NET Not Good Poor opin. 7/18/06 RV 46 5 41 53 32 21 2 5/19/02 RV 43 4 39 56 34 22 1 5/19/02 All 43 4 39 55 33 22 2 2/7/00 32 3 29 65 35 31 3 5/18/98 21 2 19 78 34 44 2 5/4/97 18 2 16 81 32 49 1 2/29/96 22 2 20 76 26 50 2 2/95 25 2 23 69 30 39 6 d. The job the District is doing responding to 911 emergency calls -Excellent/Good- -Not Good/Poor-- No NET Excel. Good NET Not Good Poor opin. 7/18/06 RV 34 4 30 46 28 18 19 5/19/02 RV 41 5 36 31 22 10 28 5/19/02 All 40 6 35 32 22 10 28 e. The quality of District parks & recreation facilities -Excellent/Good- -Not Good/Poor-- No NET Excel. Good NET Not Good Poor opin. 7/18/06 RV 54 8 47 34 21 13 11 5/19/02 RV 51 5 46 35 24 11 14 5/19/02 All 52 7 45 35 24 12 12 2/7/00 56 7 49 33 22 11 11 5/18/98 47 6 41 39 22 17 14 5/4/97 52 7 45 38 24 14 9 2/29/96 45 4 41 41 24 17 14 2/95 38 3 35 42 28 14 20 f. The quality of services provided by the Department of Motor Vehicles -Excellent/Good- -Not Good/Poor-- No NET Excel. Good NET Not Good Poor opin. 7/18/06 RV 56 8 48 34 18 16 10 5/19/02 RV 46 7 38 45 22 23 9 5/19/02 All 44 7 38 45 23 22 11 2/7/00 54 8 45 34 18 16 13 5/18/98 38 4 35 46 21 25 15 5/4/97 37 4 33 49 25 24 14 g. The job the District is doing caring for the poor and disadvantaged No trend. 18. These days, how safe from crime do you feel in your neighborhood? Would you say you feel very safe from crime, somewhat safe, not too safe, or not safe at all? -------Safe-------- --------Not safe-------- No NET Very Somewhat NET Not too Not at all opinion 7/18/06 RV 72 15 57 28 19 8 1 5/19/02 RV 74 25 49 26 16 10 * 5/19/02 All 74 27 47 25 16 9 * 2/7/00 80 24 56 20 15 5 1 5/18/98 67 15 52 32 20 12 * 12/93 57 11 47 43 23 20 0 19. How confident are you in the District government's ability to respond effectively to a large-scale terrorist attack in the Washington area - very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident or not confident at all? -------Confident------- ------Not confident----- No NET Very Somewhat NET Not too At all opin. 7/18/06 RV 35 7 29 63 37 26 2 5/19/02 RV 53 11 42 44 29 15 3 5/19/02 All 52 11 41 45 30 15 3 20. As you may know, the district government is trying to redevelop parts of the city to attract new businesses and residents. Do you think this process of redevelopment is mainly good or mainly bad for (ITEM)? 7/18/06 RV Mainly Mainly No good bad opin. a. Whites in the District 86 5 9 b. Blacks in the District 51 40 8 c. The rich 87 6 7 d. The poor 35 61 5 e. District businesses 84 10 6 f. Your neighborhood 74 19 6 g. People like you 72 23 5 h. The city overall 78 19 4 i. The middle class 70 25 5 Trend: a. Whites in the District Mainly Mainly No good bad opin. 7/18/06 RV 86 5 9 2/7/00 RV 85 7 8 2/7/00 All 85 7 8 b. Blacks in the District Mainly Mainly No good bad opin. 7/18/06 RV 51 40 8 2/7/00 RV 73 20 7 2/7/00 All 72 21 7 c. The rich Mainly Mainly No good bad opin. 7/18/06 RV 87 6 7 2/7/00 RV 81 8 11 2/7/00 All 82 7 10 d. The poor Mainly Mainly No good bad opin. 7/18/06 RV 35 61 5 2/7/00 RV 64 28 8 2/7/00 All 64 29 7 e. District businesses Mainly Mainly No good bad opin. 7/18/06 RV 84 10 6 2/7/00 RV 85 10 5 2/7/00 All 86 9 5 f. Your neighborhood Mainly Mainly No good bad opin. 7/18/06 RV 74 19 6 2/7/00 RV 76 16 8 2/7/00 All 78 14 8 g. People like you Mainly Mainly No good bad opin. 7/18/06 RV 72 23 5 2/7/00 RV 78 13 8 2/7/00 All 79 14 8 h. The city overall Mainly Mainly No good bad opin. 7/18/06 RV 78 19 4 2/7/00 RV 86 10 5 2/7/00 86 10 4 i. The middle class No trend. 21. Do you think there is any chance you will be forced to move out of your current neighborhood because of redevelopment, or don't you think that will happen to you? IF YES: Is there a good chance you will be forced to move, or just some chance? --Chance forced to move-- Don't think Already No NET Good Just some will happen did (vol.) opin. 7/18/06 RV 24 14 10 73 1 3 42. Are you currently renting the place where you now live, or do you own it? Other/something No Renting Own else (vol.) opin. 7/18/06 RV 43 55 2 * 22. If you had to move today, do you think you could (buy a home/find a rental) in the District that you would like and could afford, or do you think you would have to move to the suburbs to find something you would like and could afford? Could find something Would have to No in District move to suburbs opin. 7/18/06 RV 44 50 6 23. (IF RENTING) If you were looking to buy a home, do you think you could find something in the District that you would like and could afford, or do you think you would have to move to the suburbs to find that? AMONG RENTERS: Could find something Would have to No in District move to suburbs opin. 7/18/06 RV 24 70 6 26. (ASKED OF HALF SAMPLE) Do you think improving the District public schools is something the District's mayor can do a lot about, do a little about, or is that mostly beyond any mayor's control? -----Mayor's control------ Mostly beyond No NET A lot A little mayor's control opin. 7/18/06 RV 80 52 28 17 3 27. (ASKED OF HALF SAMPLE) The District public school system is currently managed by the school board and not by the mayor. Do you think control of the public schools (should be transferred to the mayor), or do you think control of the public schools (should remain with the school board)? Transfer to Remain with No the Mayor school board opin. 7/18/06 RV 32 62 7 28. From what you know or have heard, what is the reputation of the local public schools in your neighborhood: mostly good, mixed, or mostly bad? Mostly good Mixed Mostly bad No opin. 7/18/06 RV 32 38 25 4 DEMOGRAPHICS: 901. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as: Democrat Republican Independent Other No op. 7/18/06 RV 69 7 21 2 1 35. In which section of Washington, D.C. do you live: Northwest, Northeast, Southwest or Southeast? Northwest Northeast Southwest Southeast No op. 7/18/06 50 21 4 24 * 7/18/06 RV 49 23 4 24 * 36. Can you tell me the name of the school, church or other place where people on your block go to vote in an election? Yes No No opinion 7/18/06 Dem RV 78 20 1 37. How often would you say you vote in local elections: always, nearly always, part of the time or seldom? Nearly Part of Other Never No Always always the time Seldom (vol.) (vol.) op. 7/18/06 Dem RV 58 25 10 5 1 1 * 38. Washington is divided into eight wards for voting purposes: Ward 1, Ward 2, Ward 3, and so on. Do you happen to know which ward you live in? W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 Not sure 7/18/06 RV 9 7 13 12 13 10 12 10 14 39. How many years have you lived in Washington, D.C., or have you lived here your whole life? 5 years 6-10 11-25 26+ Whole No or less years years years life opin. 7/18/06 RV 13 10 18 21 38 0 40. Does anyone in your household work for the federal or city government? Federal City Both Neither No opin. 7/18/06 RV 17 7 2 74 0 Q909. What was the last grade of school you completed? All RV High school or less 16 14 Graduated high school 22 22 Some college 16 16 Graduated College 24 25 Post-graduate 21 23 Q910. What is your age? All RV 18-29 25 20 30-39 21 22 40-49 16 17 50-64 23 25 65+ 15 16 915. Do you have any children under age 18 living at home, or not? Yes No No opin. 7/18/06 RV 25 75 0 41. Do you happen to have any children in the DC public school system, or not? Yes No No opin. 7/18/06 RV 18 82 0 Q918. Are you of Hispanic origin or background? IF YES: Are you White Hispanic or Black Hispanic? IF NO: Are you white, black, or some other race? All RV White 33 34 Black 54 56 Hispanic 4 2 Asian 1 1 Other Race 8 7 INCOME. Which of the following categories best describes your total annual household income before taxes, from all sources? -------Less than $50k------- --------More than $50k-------- NET <20k 20-35k 35-50k NET 50-75k 75-100k 100k+ 7/18/06 RV 44 16 14 15 53 17 11 25 7/18/06 All 46 18 14 14 49 16 10 24 Q921. RESPONDENT'S SEX All RV Male 47 47 Female 53 53