Washington Post Poll
The Washington PostSunday, July 2, 2006
| The following are selected questions from a Washington Post poll conducted by telephone June 19-25, 2006 among 1,127 randomly selected Maryland adults, 902 whom reported they were currently registered to vote. With the exceptions of questions 1, 40 and 41, results shown are based on voters only. The survey also included an oversample of African American voters (total N=338) in order to more accurately analyze this group. Final results were adjusted to reflect the actual racial distribution of the state. Margin of sampling error for results based on the full sample is plus or minus three percentage points. For registered Democrats it is plus or minus four percentage points. Questions on the demographic makeup of the sample group are included at the end of the poll. LV=Registered Voter Fieldwork by TNS of Horsham, PA. *= less than 0.5 percent 1. Do you happen to be registered to vote in the state of Maryland, or haven't you had time to register yet?
Yes No No opinion
6/25/06 75 25 *
Among those registered
Dem. Rep. Ind. Something else No opinion
6/25/06 RV 51 29 14 4 1
3. How interested are you in this year's political races in Maryland: very interested, fairly interested, not too interested, or not interested at all? -----Interested----- ------Not Interested------ No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opinion
6/25/06 RV 79 41 38 21 14 7 *
Asked of registered Democrats Certain Probably Chances Less than Will not No
to vote vote 50/50 50/50 vote (vol.) op.
6/25/06 RV 68 17 9 4 1 1
Asked of registered Democrats Net Leaned Vote, Registered Democrats:
Licht- Kauff- Ras- Other None No
Mfume Cardin Rales man man mussen (vol.) (vol.) op.
6/25/06 RV 31 25 1 3 3 5 1 5 26
6/25/06 LV 33 26 0 4 2 4 1 3 27
7. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the 2006 statewide elections for governor and U.S. Senator this November: are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? Certain Probably Chances Less than Will not No
to vote vote 50/50 50/50 vote (vol.) op.
6/25/06 RV 71 15 7 4 2 1
10/24/02 RV 70 14 8 6 - 2
8/8a. . If the candidates in the race for governor were Bob Ehrlich, the Republican and Martin O'Malley, the Democrat for whom would you vote? Which one are you leaning toward right now? Net Leaned Vote:
Other Neither Will not No
Ehrlich O'Malley (vol.) (vol.) vote op.
6/25/06 RV 40 51 * 3 2 5
6/25/06 LV 39 55 * 1 0 4
10/10a. How about the race for Maryland's U.S. Senate seat: If the candidates in the race for Senate were Kweisi Mfume, the Democrat and Michael Steele, the Republican for whom would you vote? Which one are you leaning toward right now? Net Leaned Vote:
Other Neither Will not No
Mfume Steele (vol.) (vol.) vote op.
6/25/06 RV 46 43 0 2 2 7
6/25/06 LV 46 46 0 1 0 6
11/11a. If the candidates in the race for Senate were Ben Cardin, the Democrat and Michael Steele, the Republican for whom would you vote? Which one are you leaning toward right now? Net Leaned Vote:
Other Neither Will not No
Cardin Steele (vol.) (vol.) vote op.
6/25/06 RV 49 39 0 1 2 8
6/25/06 LV 52 40 0 * 0 7
12. (IF NOT SUPPORTING STEEL Q10/Q10A/Q11/Q11A) What are the chances you would end up voting for Michael Steele this fall: Would you say there's a good chance, some chance, only a small chance, or no chance? ---More Chance--- ---Less Chance--- No
NET Good Some NET Small No opinion
6/25/06 RV 13 2 11 82 26 56 5
13. Do you think things in the state of Maryland are generally going in the right direction, or do you think things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right direction Wrong track No opinion 6/25/06 RV 44 50 6 1/7/04 RV 56 36 8 1/7/04 ALL 57 35 9 10/24/02 LV 42 51 7 10/22/98 LV 54 36 10 6/17/98 ALL 53 34 13 6/17/98 LV 56 32 11 12/93 33 56 11 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Ehrlich is handling his job as governor? Do you approve/disapprove STRONGLY or SOMEWHAT? ---------Approve--------- --------Disapprove------- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opin.
6/25/06 RV 56 21 36 41 21 20 3
1/7/04 RV 64 23 41 29 17 12 8
1/7/04 62 21 42 28 17 11 10
15. Which of the following issues do you think is the biggest one facing the state of Maryland these days, the one you want the next governor to work hardest on: (crime), (taxes), (the state economy), (public education), (transportation), or (growth and development)? 6/25/06 RV Public education 35 Crime 20 The state economy 13 Taxes 12 Transportation 7 Growth and development 9 Other 3 No opinion 1 16. How much would you say Ehrlich has accomplished in his first term as governor: a lot, a fair amount, some, or not much? ---A Lot/Fair Amount--- ----Some/Not Much---- No
NET A lot Fair amt. NET Some Not much opin.
6/25/06 RV 48 8 40 51 30 21 2
1/7/04 RV* 49 6 43 47 29 18 4
1/7/04 ALL* 50 7 43 45 28 17 4
*In Jan. 04, asked "in his first year"
17. (IF EHRLICH ACCOMPLISHED SOME/NOT MUCH, Q16) Who deserves the blame for Ehrlich not accomplishing more: (Ehrlich himself) or (the Democrats who control the state legislature)? Democrats who control Both Neither No
Ehrlich the state legislature (vol.) (vol.) opin.
6/25/06 59 28 6 1 6
18. For each of the following statements, please tell me whether the phrase describes Ehrlich very well, fairly well, not too well, or not well at all? 6/25/06 Summary Table RV
--------Well------- -------Not Well------- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all op.
a. Is honest 75 25 49 21 13 8 4
b. Has a vision for
the state's future 66 21 45 30 20 10 4
c. Is a likable
person 77 32 45 16 10 7 6
d. Is willing to
make reasonable
compromises 60 14 46 35 21 13 5
Trend where available:
a. Is honest
--------Well------- -------Not Well------- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all op.
6/25/06 RV 75 25 49 21 13 8 4
1/7/04 RV 83 36 48 11 6 5 6
1/7/04 ALL 82 33 49 11 6 4 7
b. Has a vision for the state's future
--------Well------- -------Not Well------- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all op.
6/25/06 RV 66 21 45 30 20 10 4
1/7/04 RV 74 31 44 22 16 6 4
1/7/04 ALL 75 29 45 21 15 6 5
c. Is a likable person
--------Well------- -------Not Well------- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all op.
6/25/06 RV 77 32 45 16 10 7 6
1/7/04 RV 85 39 47 9 6 3 5
1/7/04 ALL 83 36 47 9 6 3 8
d. No trend. 19. How good a job has Ehrlich done (ITEM)? Has he done an excellant, good, not so good, or poor job? 6/25/06 Summary Table RV
----Exc./Good---- ----Not Good/Poor---- No
NET Exc. Good NET Not good Poor op.
a. Protecting the
Chesapeake Bay 56 10 46 37 27 10 7
b. Working with Democrats
in the state legislature 48 6 42 46 33 13 6
c. Treating state
employees fairly 52 8 44 35 24 11 13
d. Putting more state
money into the public
schools 43 8 36 50 37 14 7
20. As you may know, the state government is forecasting a budget surplus. Do you think Ehrlich does or does NOT deserve any credit for the projected surplus? IF HE DOES: Does he deserve a lot of credit, or just a little? --------Deserves Credit-------- Does NOT No
NET A Lot Just a little deserve credit opin.
6/25/06 RV 71 27 45 24 5
21. As you may know, tuition rates at Maryland's universities have risen over the past four years. Do you think Ehrlich does or does not deserve any blame for this increase? IF HE DOES: Does he deserve a lot of blame, or just a little --------Deserves Blame--------- Does NOT No
NET A Lot Just a little deserve blame opin.
6/25/06 RV 51 18 33 44 6
22. You may have heard that electricity rates are going up this year for many Maryland residents. How much blame, if any, does each of the following deserve for the increase 6/25/06 Summary Table RV
------Deserves Blame------ No No
NET A lot A little blame opin.
a. Governor Ehrlich 70 26 44 28 2
b. The state legislature 88 54 34 9 2
c. Utility companies 90 68 22 9 1
22a. Who do you think would do a better job of controlling electricity rate increases in the future: (Governor Ehrlich), (a Democratic governor), or (the state legislature)? Governor A Dem. State All of them None/No diff. No
Ehrlich governor legislature (vol.) (vol.) op.
6/25/06 RV 25 21 40 2 9 4
23. For each group I name, please tell me if you think it (has too much influence) in the Ehrlich administration, (doesn't have enough influence), in the Ehrlich administration, or has about the right amount of influence
6/25/06 Summary Table* RV
Too Not Right No
much enough amount opin.
a. people like you 2 67 29 2
b. blacks and other minority groups 8 52 34 7
c. utility companies, such as power
companies 56 15 24 5
d. large business corporations 66 8 22 4
e. environmental groups 15 51 30 3
f. teachers groups 10 63 22 4
g. labor unions 17 37 34 9
h. gambling interests 38 30 26 7
*Full sample asked items a-c, half sample asked items d-f, other half asked items d-h.
24. I am going to read you a list of names. For each, please tell me if you have a favorable of unfavorable impression of that person or group, or perhaps you don't know enough to say. 6/25/06 Summary Table* RV
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
a. Bob Ehrlich 55 38 7
b. Michael Steele 51 26 23
c. The Democratic Party
in Maryland 54 32 14
d. The Republican Party
in Maryland 40 45 15
e. Kendel Ehrlich 41 22 37
f. Martin O'Malley 51 30 19
g. Doug Duncan 48 20 31
h. Ben Cardin 39 12 49
i. Kweisi Mfume 44 22 34
j. William Donald Schaefer 50 34 16
*Full sample asked items a-d, half sample asked items e-g, other half asked items h-j.
Trend where available:
a. Bob Ehrlich
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
6/25/06 RV 55 38 7
1/7/04 RV 68 18 14
1/7/04 ALL 66 17 17
b. Michael Steele
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
6/25/06 RV 51 26 23
1/7/04 RV 42 9 49
1/7/04 ALL 38 9 53
c. The Democratic Party in Maryland
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
6/25/06 RV 54 32 14
6/18/98 ALL 55 21 24
d. The Republican Party in Maryland
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
6/25/06 RV 40 45 15
6/18/98 ALL 39 34 27
e. Kendel Ehrlich
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
6/25/06 41 22 37
1/7/04 RV 36 10 54
1/7/04 ALL 35 10 55
f. Martin O'Malley
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
6/25/06 51 30 19
1/7/04 RV 54 12 34
1/7/04 ALL 50 12 38
g. Doug Duncan
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
6/25/06 48 20 31
1/7/04 RV 29 10 61
1/7/04 ALL 27 10 63
h,i,j. No trend.
25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove STRONGLY or SOMEWHAT? ---------Approve--------- --------Disapprove------- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opin.
6/25/06 RV 33 17 15 67 11 55 1
1/7/04 RV 54 34 21 45 14 30 1
1/7/04 ALL 55 33 21 44 14 30 1
COMPARE TO NATIONAL:
---------Approve--------- --------Disapprove------- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opin.
6/25/06 38 20 18 60 12 48 2
5/15/06 33 17 16 65 18 47 2
4/9/06 38 20 18 60 13 47 1
3/5/06 41 24 17 58 14 44 1
1/26/06 42 25 18 56 14 42 2
1/8/06 46 29 17 52 13 39 2
Contact Post for prior national trend
26. If you knew that Bush was backing a candidate, would that make you (more likely) or (less likely) to support that candidate yourself? More Less Wouldn't make a No
likely likely difference (vol.) opin.
6/25/06 RV 19 56 23 2
27. All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war in Iraq was worth fighting or not? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
-----Worth fighting------ ----Not worth fighting--- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly op.
6/25/06 RV 36 23 13 63 11 52 1
COMPARE TO NATIONAL:
-----Worth fighting------ ----Not worth fighting--- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly op.
6/25/06 40 25 15 58 13 45 2
5/15/06 37 24 14 62 12 50 1
4/9/06 41 30 11 58 10 48 1
3/5/06 42 29 14 57 11 46 1
1/26/06 44 32 12 55 13 42 1
1/8/06 43 30 13 55 12 43 2
Contact Post for prior national trend
28. From what you have seen, heard or read, what is your impression of how things are going in Baltimore these days: very well, fairly well, not too well, or not well at all? --------Well------- ---------Not Well--------- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opin.
6/25/06 RV 49 3 46 44 28 16 7
29. Is your impression that Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley has made things (better) in Baltimore, made things (worse), or hasn't he really changed things there? Hasn't really No
Better Worse changed things opin.
6/25/06 RV 41 11 40 9
30. From what you have seen, heard, or read, what is your impression of how things are going in Montgomery County, Maryland these days: very well, fairly well, not too well, or not well at all? --------Well------- ---------Not Well--------- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opin.
6/25/06 RV 56 12 44 21 16 6 23
31. Is it your impression that county executive Doug Duncan made things (better) in Montgomery County, made things (worse), or hasn't really changed things there? Hasn't really No
Better Worse changed things opin.
6/25/06 RV 32 5 39 24
32. Do you support or oppose the state legislature's decision to force Wal-Mart to spend more on employee health benefits? Support Oppose No opinion 6/25/06 RV 77 21 2 33. Generally speaking, do you think the growing numbers of immigrants from other countries have been (good) for your community (bad) for your community, or hasn't it made much difference? Hasn't made No immigrants coming to No
Good Bad much difference my community (vol.) op.
6/25/06 RV 26 29 41 * 3
COMPARE TO VIRGINIA:
No (VOL)None No
Good Bad diff in commun. opin.
10/26/05 LV 26 30 41 * 2
9/9/05 LV 23 34 42 1 1
9/9/05 RV 21 33 44 1 1
8/23/01 RV 21 23 53 * 3
34. Would you favor or oppose allowing slot-machine gambling at horse-racing tracks in Maryland? Favor Oppose No opinion 6/25/06 RV 60 36 4 1/7/04 RV 58 38 4 1/7/04 ALL 59 38 3 35. Would you favor or oppose allowing slot-machine gambling at places other than horse-racing tracks, such as bars, restaurants or hotels? Favor Oppose No opinion 6/25/06 RV 35 64 1 1/7/04 RV 31 67 3 1/7/04 ALL 33 65 2 36. (HALF SAMPLE) Would you favor or oppose a state law that would allow gay or lesbian couples to legally form civil unions, giving them some of the legal rights of married couples? Favor Oppose No opinion 6/25/06 RV 50 47 3 1/7/04 RV 44 51 5 1/7/04 ALL 44 51 5 37. (HALF SAMPLE) Would you favor or oppose a state law that would allow gay and lesbian couples to get married? Favor Oppose No opinion 6/25/06 RV 42 56 3 1/7/04 RV 35 58 7 1/7/04 ALL 35 58 7 38. Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases? ------- Legal ------- ------ Illegal ------
All Most Most All No
NET cases cases NET cases cases opin.
6/25/06 RV 63 22 40 35 24 11 3
10/24/02 LV 63 25 38 33 21 12 5
COMPARE TO NATIONAL:
------- Legal ------- ------ Illegal ------
All Most Most All No
NET cases cases NET cases cases opin.
12/18/05 56 17 40 41 27 13 3
Contact Post for prior national trend
40/41. Thinking about the (county/city) that you live in: please tell me if you think each of the following is a big problem, a small problem, or not a problem in your (county/city). IF PROBLEM: Have you seriously considered moving to a different county because of (PROBLEM)? a. Violent crime
---------------------Problem---------------------
Have not
Considered considered Not a
NET Big Small moving moving DK/REF problem No op.
6/25/06 75 39 36 16 59 * 23 1
b. Poor-quality public schools
---------------------Problem---------------------
Have not
Considered considered Not a
NET Big Small moving moving DK/REF problem No op.
6/25/06 55 33 22 13 42 * 41 4
c. Not having enough high-quality stores and restaurants
---------------------Problem---------------------
Have not
Considered considered Not a
NET Big Small moving moving DK/REF problem No op.
6/25/06 31 14 17 5 26 * 68 1
DEMOGRAPHICS: 901. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as: Democrat Republican Independent Other No op.
6/25/06 RV 43 23 29 4 1
901/904 Leaned Party:
Democrat Republican Independent Other No op.
6/25/06 RV 58 34 7 1 1
908a. Would you say your views on most political matters are liberal, moderate, or conservative? Don't think in No
Liberal Moderate Conservative those terms (vol.) op.
6/25/06 RV 23 44 31 2 1
911. What, if anything, is your religion?
Christian Other Non- No
Protestant Catholic (Non-Protestant) Christian None op.
6/25/06 RV 43 26 10 6 12 1
911b. (IF CHRISTIAN) Would you consider yourself a born-again or evangelical Christian, or not?
Yes No No opin.
6/25/06 RV 40 58 1
911e. Aside from weddings and funerals, how often do you attend religious services - at least once a week, a few times a month, or less often than that? At least Few times Less often Never No
once a week a month than that (vol.) opin.
6/25/06 RV 35 19 42 4 *
913. Would you describe the area in which you live as a: (READ LIST) Large Suburb of Small Rural No
city large city town area opin.
6/25/06 RV 15 49 20 15 *
914. Are you: (READ LIST) Never
Married Separated Divorced Widowed married
6/25/06 RV 58 2 12 7 21
915. Do you have any children under age 18 living at home, or not? Yes No 6/25/06 ALL 37 63 INCOME. Which of the following CATEGORIES best describes your total annual household income before taxes, from all sources? -------Less than $50k------- --------More than $50k--------
NET <20k 20-35k 35-50k NET 50-75k 75-100k 100k+
6/25/06 ALL 40 13 12 15 56 18 13 25
42. Do you primarily get your local TV news from a (Washington) station, a (Baltimore) station, or from another city's station?
Washington Baltimore Another city No opin.
6/25/06 RV 37 46 13 4
Q909. ALL What was the last grade of school you completed? High school or less 13 Graduated high school 29 Some college 23 Graduated College 19 Post-graduate 16 Q910. ALL What is your age? 18-29 19 30-39 18 40-49 23 50-64 25 65+ 15 Q918. ALL Are you of Hispanic origin or background? IF YES: Are you White Hispanic or Black Hispanic? IF NO: Are you white, black, or some other race? White 63 Black 27 Hispanic 4 Asian 2 Other Race 5 Q921. ALL RESPONDENT'S SEX Male 48 Female 52 |