Washington Post Poll

The Washington Post
Sunday, July 2, 2006

The following are selected questions from a Washington Post poll conducted by telephone June 19-25, 2006 among 1,127 randomly selected Maryland adults, 902 whom reported they were currently registered to vote. With the exceptions of questions 1, 40 and 41, results shown are based on voters only. The survey also included an oversample of African American voters (total N=338) in order to more accurately analyze this group. Final results were adjusted to reflect the actual racial distribution of the state. Margin of sampling error for results based on the full sample is plus or minus three percentage points. For registered Democrats it is plus or minus four percentage points. Questions on the demographic makeup of the sample group are included at the end of the poll.

LV=Registered Voter
RV=Registered voter who reports he/she is "absolutely certain" to vote

Fieldwork by TNS of Horsham, PA. *= less than 0.5 percent

1. Do you happen to be registered to vote in the state of Maryland, or haven't you had time to register yet?

            Yes     No     No opinion						
6/25/06     75      25          *  

Among those registered
2. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, and Independent or something else?

            Dem.     Rep.     Ind.     Something else     No opinion
6/25/06 RV  51       29       14              4                1 

3. How interested are you in this year's political races in Maryland: very interested, fairly interested, not too interested, or not interested at all?

            -----Interested-----     ------Not Interested------      No
            NET   Very   Fairly      NET   Not too   Not at all    opinion
6/25/06 RV  79     41      38        21      14           7           *   

Asked of registered Democrats
4. This year's Democratic Primary election for governor and for U.S. Senate will be held on September 12. I'd like for you to rate the chances that you will vote in the Democratic Primary Election in Maryland this fall. Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

            Certain   Probably   Chances   Less than     Will not        No
            to vote     vote      50/50      50/50      vote (vol.)      op.
6/25/06 RV     68        17         9          4             1            1           

Asked of registered Democrats
6/6a. The candidates running in the Democratic primary for U.S. SENATOR include Kweisi Mfume, Ben Cardin, Josh Rales, Allan Lichtman, A. Robert Kauffman and Dennis Rasmussen. Suppose the election was held today, for whom would you vote? Which one are you leaning toward right now?

Net Leaned Vote, Registered Democrats:
 
                                Licht-  Kauff-   Ras-   Other    None   No 
          Mfume  Cardin  Rales   man     man    mussen  (vol.)  (vol.)  op.
6/25/06 RV  31     25      1      3       3       5       1       5     26
6/25/06 LV  33     26      0      4       2       4       1       3     27 

7. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the 2006 statewide elections for governor and U.S. Senator this November: are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

		Certain   Probably   Chances   Less than     Will not        No
            to vote     vote      50/50      50/50      vote (vol.)      op.
6/25/06 RV     71        15         7          4             2            1  
10/24/02 RV    70        14         8          6             -            2         

8/8a. . If the candidates in the race for governor were Bob Ehrlich, the Republican and Martin O'Malley, the Democrat for whom would you vote? Which one are you leaning toward right now?

Net Leaned Vote:
                                     Other      Neither  Will not    No
            Ehrlich     O'Malley     (vol.)      (vol.)    vote      op.
6/25/06 RV     40           51          *           3        2        5
6/25/06 LV     39           55          *           1        0        4

10/10a. How about the race for Maryland's U.S. Senate seat: If the candidates in the race for Senate were Kweisi Mfume, the Democrat and Michael Steele, the Republican for whom would you vote? Which one are you leaning toward right now?

Net Leaned Vote:
                                 Other      Neither  Will not      No
            Mfume     Steele     (vol.)      (vol.)    vote        op.   
6/25/06 RV   46         43         0           2         2          7
6/25/06 LV   46         46         0           1         0          6

11/11a. If the candidates in the race for Senate were Ben Cardin, the Democrat and Michael Steele, the Republican for whom would you vote? Which one are you leaning toward right now?

Net Leaned Vote:
                                  Other      Neither   Will not     No
            Cardin     Steele     (vol.)      (vol.)     vote       op.   
6/25/06 RV    49         39         0           1         2          8
6/25/06 LV    52         40         0           *         0          7

12. (IF NOT SUPPORTING STEEL Q10/Q10A/Q11/Q11A) What are the chances you would end up voting for Michael Steele this fall: Would you say there's a good chance, some chance, only a small chance, or no chance?

            ---More Chance---     ---Less Chance---         No
            NET   Good   Some     NET   Small    No      opinion
6/25/06 RV  13      2     11      82     26      56         5 

13. Do you think things in the state of Maryland are generally going in the right direction, or do you think things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

                 Right direction     Wrong track     No opinion
6/25/06 RV             44                50                6
1/7/04 RV              56                36                8 
1/7/04 ALL             57                35                9 
10/24/02 LV            42                51                7
10/22/98 LV            54                36               10
6/17/98  ALL           53                34               13
6/17/98  LV            56                32               11
12/93                  33                56               11

14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Ehrlich is handling his job as governor? Do you approve/disapprove STRONGLY or SOMEWHAT?

            ---------Approve---------   --------Disapprove-------    No   
            NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opin. 
6/25/06 RV  56       21         36      41       21         20        3
1/7/04 RV   64       23         41      29       17         12        8
1/7/04      62       21         42      28       17         11       10    

15. Which of the following issues do you think is the biggest one facing the state of Maryland these days, the one you want the next governor to work hardest on: (crime), (taxes), (the state economy), (public education), (transportation), or (growth and development)?

                           6/25/06 RV
Public education             35  
Crime                        20
The state economy            13
Taxes                        12
Transportation                7
Growth and development        9
Other                         3
No opinion                    1

16. How much would you say Ehrlich has accomplished in his first term as governor: a lot, a fair amount, some, or not much?

            ---A Lot/Fair Amount---     ----Some/Not Much----      No
            NET   A lot   Fair amt.     NET   Some   Not much     opin.
6/25/06 RV  48       8       40         51     30       21          2
1/7/04 RV*  49       6       43         47     29       18          4
1/7/04 ALL* 50       7       43         45     28       17          4

*In Jan. 04, asked "in his first year"

17. (IF EHRLICH ACCOMPLISHED SOME/NOT MUCH, Q16) Who deserves the blame for Ehrlich not accomplishing more: (Ehrlich himself) or (the Democrats who control the state legislature)?

Among those who say governor did not accomplish much:

                       Democrats who control       Both      Neither      No
            Ehrlich     the state legislature      (vol.)      (vol.)     opin.      
6/25/06       59                 28                  6           1          6

18. For each of the following statements, please tell me whether the phrase describes Ehrlich very well, fairly well, not too well, or not well at all?

6/25/06 Summary Table RV

                         --------Well-------     -------Not Well-------     No
                         NET   Very   Fairly     NET   Not too   At all     op.
a. Is honest             75     25      49       21       13          8      4
b. Has a vision for 
the state's future       66     21      45       30       20         10      4
c. Is a likable 
person                   77     32      45       16       10          7      6 
d. Is willing to 
make reasonable 
compromises              60     14      46       35       21         13      5

Trend where available:

a. Is honest

            --------Well-------     -------Not Well-------     No
            NET   Very   Fairly     NET   Not too   At all     op.
6/25/06 RV  75     25      49       21       13          8      4
1/7/04 RV   83     36      48       11        6          5      6  
1/7/04 ALL  82     33      49       11        6          4      7  

b. Has a vision for the state's future

            --------Well-------     -------Not Well-------     No
            NET   Very   Fairly     NET   Not too   At all     op.
6/25/06 RV  66     21      45       30       20         10      4
1/7/04 RV   74     31      44       22       16          6      4  
1/7/04 ALL  75     29      45       21       15          6      5  

c. Is a likable person

            --------Well-------     -------Not Well-------     No
            NET   Very   Fairly     NET   Not too   At all     op.
6/25/06 RV  77     32      45       16       10          7      6
1/7/04 RV   85     39      47        9        6          3      5  
1/7/04 ALL  83     36      47        9        6          3      8  

d. No trend.

19. How good a job has Ehrlich done (ITEM)? Has he done an excellant, good, not so good, or poor job?

6/25/06 Summary Table RV

                            ----Exc./Good----     ----Not Good/Poor----     No
                            NET   Exc.   Good     NET   Not good   Poor     op.
a. Protecting the            
Chesapeake Bay              56     10     46      37       27       10       7     
b. Working with Democrats
in the state legislature    48      6     42      46       33       13       6
c. Treating state 
employees fairly            52      8     44      35       24       11      13
d. Putting more state 
money into the public 
schools                     43      8     36      50       37       14       7

20. As you may know, the state government is forecasting a budget surplus. Do you think Ehrlich does or does NOT deserve any credit for the projected surplus? IF HE DOES: Does he deserve a lot of credit, or just a little?

            --------Deserves Credit--------       Does NOT          No  
            NET     A Lot     Just a little     deserve credit     opin.
6/25/06 RV  71        27           45                 24             5 

21. As you may know, tuition rates at Maryland's universities have risen over the past four years. Do you think Ehrlich does or does not deserve any blame for this increase? IF HE DOES: Does he deserve a lot of blame, or just a little

            --------Deserves Blame---------       Does NOT         No  
            NET     A Lot     Just a little     deserve blame     opin.
6/25/06 RV  51        18           33                 44            6

22. You may have heard that electricity rates are going up this year for many Maryland residents. How much blame, if any, does each of the following deserve for the increase

6/25/06 Summary Table RV

                             ------Deserves Blame------      No        No  
                             NET     A lot     A little     blame     opin.
a. Governor Ehrlich          70        26          44        28         2
b. The state legislature     88        54          34         9         2
c. Utility companies         90        68          22         9         1

22a. Who do you think would do a better job of controlling electricity rate increases in the future: (Governor Ehrlich), (a Democratic governor), or (the state legislature)?

Governor    A Dem.       State      All of them   None/No diff.   No
          Ehrlich    governor   legislature      (vol.)        (vol.)       op.
6/25/06 RV   25         21          40             2             9           4 

23. For each group I name, please tell me if you think it (has too much influence) in the Ehrlich administration, (doesn't have enough influence), in the Ehrlich administration, or has about the right amount of influence

       6/25/06 Summary Table* RV

                                        Too       Not       Right       No
                                        much     enough     amount     opin.
a. people like you                        2        67         29         2
b. blacks and other minority groups       8        52         34         7
c. utility companies, such as power 
   companies                             56        15         24         5 
d. large business corporations           66         8         22         4
e. environmental groups                  15        51         30         3     
f. teachers groups                       10        63         22         4
g. labor unions                          17        37         34         9
h. gambling interests                    38        30         26         7

*Full sample asked items a-c, half sample asked items d-f, other half asked items d-h.

24. I am going to read you a list of names. For each, please tell me if you have a favorable of unfavorable impression of that person or group, or perhaps you don't know enough to say.

6/25/06 Summary Table* RV

                              Favorable     Unfavorable     No opinion
a. Bob Ehrlich                    55             38               7
b. Michael Steele                 51             26              23    
c. The Democratic Party 
   in Maryland                    54             32              14
d. The Republican Party 
   in Maryland                    40             45              15
e. Kendel Ehrlich                 41             22              37  
f. Martin O'Malley                51             30              19   
g. Doug Duncan                    48             20              31 
h. Ben Cardin                     39             12              49
i. Kweisi Mfume                   44             22              34
j. William Donald Schaefer        50             34              16

*Full sample asked items a-d, half sample asked items e-g, other half asked items h-j.

Trend where available:

a. Bob Ehrlich

            Favorable     Unfavorable     No opinion
6/25/06 RV     55              38               7
1/7/04 RV      68              18              14
1/7/04 ALL     66              17              17

b. Michael Steele

            Favorable     Unfavorable     No opinion
6/25/06 RV     51              26              23
1/7/04 RV      42               9              49
1/7/04 ALL     38               9              53

c. The Democratic Party in Maryland

            Favorable     Unfavorable     No opinion
6/25/06 RV     54              32              14
6/18/98 ALL    55              21              24

d. The Republican Party in Maryland

            Favorable     Unfavorable     No opinion
6/25/06 RV     40              45              15
6/18/98 ALL    39              34              27

e. Kendel Ehrlich

            Favorable     Unfavorable     No opinion
6/25/06        41              22              37
1/7/04 RV      36              10              54
1/7/04 ALL     35              10              55

f. Martin O'Malley

            Favorable     Unfavorable     No opinion
6/25/06        51              30              19
1/7/04 RV      54              12              34
1/7/04 ALL     50              12              38

 
g. Doug Duncan

            Favorable     Unfavorable     No opinion
6/25/06        48              20              31
1/7/04 RV      29              10              61
1/7/04 ALL     27              10              63

h,i,j. No trend. 

25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove STRONGLY or SOMEWHAT?

            ---------Approve---------   --------Disapprove-------    No   
            NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opin. 
6/25/06 RV  33       17         15      67       11         55        1
1/7/04 RV   54       34         21      45       14         30        1
1/7/04 ALL  55       33         21      44       14         30        1

COMPARE TO NATIONAL:

             ---------Approve---------   --------Disapprove-------    No   
             NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opin.
6/25/06      38       20         18      60       12         48        2 
5/15/06      33       17         16      65       18         47        2
4/9/06       38       20         18      60       13         47        1
3/5/06       41       24         17      58       14         44        1
1/26/06      42       25         18      56       14         42        2 
1/8/06       46       29         17      52       13         39        2 
Contact Post for prior national trend

26. If you knew that Bush was backing a candidate, would that make you (more likely) or (less likely) to support that candidate yourself?

             More       Less      Wouldn't make a        No
            likely     likely     difference (vol.)     opin.
6/25/06 RV    19         56             23                2

27. All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war in Iraq was worth fighting or not? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

            -----Worth fighting------     ----Not worth fighting---      No     
            NET   Strongly   Somewhat     NET   Somewhat   Strongly      op. 
6/25/06 RV  36       23         13        63       11         52          1    

COMPARE TO NATIONAL:

            -----Worth fighting------     ----Not worth fighting---      No     
            NET   Strongly   Somewhat     NET   Somewhat   Strongly      op. 
6/25/06     40       25         15        58       13         45          2
5/15/06     37       24         14        62       12         50          1    
4/9/06      41       30         11        58       10         48          1    
3/5/06      42       29         14        57       11         46          1  
1/26/06     44       32         12        55       13         42          1
1/8/06      43       30         13        55       12         43          2
Contact Post for prior national trend

28. From what you have seen, heard or read, what is your impression of how things are going in Baltimore these days: very well, fairly well, not too well, or not well at all?

            --------Well-------      ---------Not Well---------      No
            NET   Very   Fairly      NET   Not too   Not at all     opin.
6/25/06 RV  49      3      46        44       28         16           7

29. Is your impression that Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley has made things (better) in Baltimore, made things (worse), or hasn't he really changed things there?

                                 Hasn't really       No
            Better     Worse     changed things     opin.
6/25/06 RV    41        11             40             9  

30. From what you have seen, heard, or read, what is your impression of how things are going in Montgomery County, Maryland these days: very well, fairly well, not too well, or not well at all?

            --------Well-------      ---------Not Well---------      No
            NET   Very   Fairly      NET   Not too   Not at all     opin.
6/25/06 RV  56     12      44        21       16          6          23

31. Is it your impression that county executive Doug Duncan made things (better) in Montgomery County, made things (worse), or hasn't really changed things there?

                                 Hasn't really       No
            Better     Worse     changed things     opin.
6/25/06 RV    32         5             39            24  

32. Do you support or oppose the state legislature's decision to force Wal-Mart to spend more on employee health benefits?

            Support     Oppose     No opinion
6/25/06 RV     77         21            2

33. Generally speaking, do you think the growing numbers of immigrants from other countries have been (good) for your community (bad) for your community, or hasn't it made much difference?

                              Hasn't made      No immigrants coming to      No 
           Good     Bad     much difference       my community (vol.)       op.
6/25/06 RV  26      29             41                     *                  3 

COMPARE TO VIRGINIA:
                                 No      (VOL)None      No
               Good     Bad     diff     in commun.    opin.    
10/26/05 LV     26       30      41          *           2
9/9/05 LV       23       34      42          1           1
9/9/05 RV       21       33      44          1           1
8/23/01 RV      21       23      53          *           3

34. Would you favor or oppose allowing slot-machine gambling at horse-racing tracks in Maryland?

            Favor     Oppose     No opinion
6/25/06 RV   60         36             4
1/7/04 RV    58         38             4
1/7/04 ALL   59         38             3

Compare to: Some people are discussing a proposal to allow slot-machine gambling at horse-racing tracks in Maryland. Would you favor or oppose this?

Favor Oppose No opinion 6/18/98 55 41 3 6/18/98 LV 49 47 4

35. Would you favor or oppose allowing slot-machine gambling at places other than horse-racing tracks, such as bars, restaurants or hotels?

            Favor     Oppose     No opinion
6/25/06 RV   35         64             1
1/7/04 RV    31         67             3
1/7/04 ALL   33         65             2

36. (HALF SAMPLE) Would you favor or oppose a state law that would allow gay or lesbian couples to legally form civil unions, giving them some of the legal rights of married couples?

            Favor     Oppose     No opinion
6/25/06 RV   50         47             3
1/7/04 RV    44         51             5
1/7/04 ALL   44         51             5

37. (HALF SAMPLE) Would you favor or oppose a state law that would allow gay and lesbian couples to get married?

            Favor     Oppose     No opinion
6/25/06 RV   42         56             3
1/7/04 RV    35         58             7
1/7/04 ALL   35         58             7

38. Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?

             ------- Legal -------    ------ Illegal ------                      
                     All     Most            Most      All     No                 
             NET    cases    cases    NET    cases    cases   opin.  
6/25/06 RV   63      22       40      35      24       11       3
10/24/02 LV  63      25       38      33      21       12       5

COMPARE TO NATIONAL:

             ------- Legal -------    ------ Illegal ------                      
                     All     Most            Most      All     No                 
             NET    cases    cases    NET    cases    cases   opin.  
12/18/05     56      17       40      41      27       13       3             
Contact Post for prior national trend

40/41. Thinking about the (county/city) that you live in: please tell me if you think each of the following is a big problem, a small problem, or not a problem in your (county/city). IF PROBLEM: Have you seriously considered moving to a different county because of (PROBLEM)?

a. Violent crime

          ---------------------Problem---------------------
                                          Have not
                            Considered   considered             Not a 
          NET  Big  Small     moving       moving     DK/REF   problem   No op.   
6/25/06   75   39    36         16           59          *        23       1   

b. Poor-quality public schools 

          ---------------------Problem---------------------
                                          Have not
                            Considered   considered             Not a 
          NET  Big  Small     moving       moving     DK/REF   problem   No op.   
6/25/06   55   33    22         13           42          *        41       4   

c. Not having enough high-quality stores and restaurants

          ---------------------Problem---------------------
                                          Have not
                            Considered   considered             Not a 
          NET  Big  Small     moving       moving     DK/REF   problem   No op.   
6/25/06   31   14    17          5           26          *        68       1   

DEMOGRAPHICS:

901. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as:

            Democrat     Republican     Independent     Other     No op.
6/25/06 RV     43            23              29           4         1


901/904 Leaned Party:

            Democrat     Republican     Independent     Other     No op.
6/25/06 RV     58            34               7           1         1

908a. Would you say your views on most political matters are liberal, moderate, or conservative?

                                                     Don't think in      No
            Liberal    Moderate    Conservative    those terms (vol.)    op.
6/25/06 RV     23         44            31                  2             1

911. What, if anything, is your religion?

                                      Christian       Other Non-         No
           Protestant   Catholic   (Non-Protestant)   Christian   None   op. 
6/25/06 RV     43          26              10              6       12     1

911b. (IF CHRISTIAN) Would you consider yourself a born-again or evangelical Christian, or not?

            Yes     No     No opin.
6/25/06 RV  40      58         1

911e. Aside from weddings and funerals, how often do you attend religious services - at least once a week, a few times a month, or less often than that?

             At least       Few times     Less often     Never       No
            once a week      a month      than that      (vol.)     opin.
6/25/06 RV       35             19            42           4          *

913. Would you describe the area in which you live as a: (READ LIST)

            Large     Suburb of      Small     Rural      No
            city      large city     town      area      opin.
6/25/06 RV   15           49           20        15        *

914. Are you: (READ LIST)

                                                               Never      
           Married     Separated     Divorced     Widowed     married     
6/25/06 RV    58           2            12           7           21       

915. Do you have any children under age 18 living at home, or not?

            Yes     No     
6/25/06 ALL  37     63     

INCOME. Which of the following CATEGORIES best describes your total annual household income before taxes, from all sources?

            -------Less than $50k-------   --------More than $50k--------
            NET   <20k   20-35k   35-50k   NET   50-75k   75-100k   100k+
6/25/06 ALL 40     13      12       15     56      18        13       25

42. Do you primarily get your local TV news from a (Washington) station, a (Baltimore) station, or from another city's station?

            Washington     Baltimore     Another city     No opin. 
6/25/06 RV      37            46              13             4 

Q909. ALL What was the last grade of school you completed?

High school or less	13
Graduated high school      	29
Some college               	23
Graduated College          	19	
Post-graduate              	16

Q910. ALL What is your age?

18-29                      	19
30-39                      	18
40-49                      	23
50-64                      	25
65+                        	15

Q918. ALL Are you of Hispanic origin or background? IF YES: Are you White Hispanic or Black Hispanic? IF NO: Are you white, black, or some other race?

White                      	63
Black                      	27
Hispanic	 4
Asian                      	 2 
Other Race                 	 5

Q921. ALL RESPONDENT'S SEX

Male                       	48
Female                     	52


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