Washington Post-ABC News Poll: 2004 Election
Monday, July 26, 2004 | | | | This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone July 22-25, 2004, among 1,202 randomly selected adults nationwide, including 974 self-identified registered voters. Margin of sampling error for overall results and for registered voters is plus or minus three percentage points. Fieldwork by TNS of Horsham, Pa. *= less than 0.5 percent 1. How closely are you following the 2004 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No
closely closely closely at all opin.
7/25/04 34 39 15 12 *
7/11/04 36 43 13 7 1
6/20/04 33 45 15 7 *
5/23/04 33 41 17 9 *
4/18/04 30 45 16 9 0
3/7/04 33 42 18 7 *
2/11/04 30 45 15 10 *
1/18/04 22 44 22 13 *
10/29/03 15 39 30 15 0
9/13/03 16 40 27 17 *
Compare to: How closely are you following the 2000 presidential race: very
closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?
Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No
closely closely closely at all opin.
Likely Voters:
11/6/00 54 38 6 2 *
11/5/00 53 38 6 2 *
11/4/00 52 39 7 2 *
11/3/00 51 40 6 3 *
11/2/00 48 42 7 3 *
11/1/00 48 43 7 2 *
10/31/00 46 44 7 2 *
10/30/00 47 44 7 2 *
10/29/00 47 43 7 3 *
10/28/00 47 42 7 3 *
10/27/00 48 41 7 4 *
10/26/00 47 42 8 3 *
10/25/00 47 42 8 3 0
10/24/00 44 43 10 3 0
10/23/00 44 45 8 3 0
10/22/00 44 44 9 3 0
10/21/00 46 41 9 4 *
10/20/00 46 40 11 4 *
10/19/00 44 41 10 4 *
10/18/00 42 45 10 3 *
10/17/00 40 46 10 3 *
Registered Voters:
10/15/00 33 44 15 8 *
10/9/00 30 45 16 9 *
10/1/00 27 48 17 8 *
9/6/00 26 48 17 9 *
8/20/00 28 46 16 10 1
8/10/00 29 43 18 11 *
General Population:
8/6/00 17 36 22 25 *
7/29/00 16 35 25 24 *
7/23/00 14 36 25 25 *
6/11/00 13 36 26 25 0
4/2/00 17 36 24 23 0
3/11/00 21 40 21 17 0
2/27/00 24 46 20 10 *
2/6/00 19 48 21 13 0
1/16/00 11 39 26 24 *
12/15/99 12 33 31 24 *
10/31/99 16 45 25 13 *
2. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?
Don't think
Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote No
to vote vote 50/50 50/50 (vol.) opin.
7/25/04 RV 85 7 5 2 * x
10/29/03 70 12 11 6 1 0
Compare to: I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the
presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote,
will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?
Don't think
Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote No
to vote vote 50/50 50/50 (vol.) opin.
Registered Voters:
10/15/00 82 10 6 2 1 *
10/9/00 81 10 6 2 * *
10/1/00 81 10 5 3 1 *
9/6/00 78 12 5 3 1 *
8/20/00 78 13 6 3 1 0
8/10/00 79 12 6 1 1 *
General Population:
8/6/00 64 12 11 8 5 *
7/29/00 61 15 9 11 3 *
7/23/00 59 17 10 11 4 *
6/11/00 60 13 11 10 4 *
5/10/00 63 15 10 8 4 1
4/2/00 62 14 9 9 5 *
3/11/00 63 14 9 9 4 *
2/27/00 69 12 10 4 5 *
2/6/00 67 12 10 8 3 *
1/16/00 65 14 10 6 4 *
12/15/99 64 13 8 9 6 1
10/31/99 72 11 10 5 3 *
3. If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for (George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans), (John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats), or Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, the Independents? Which candidates are you leaning toward? Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters:
Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
7/25/04 48 46 3 * 1 * 1
7/11/04 46 46 4 1 2 1 1
6/20/04 44 48 6 * 1 * 1
5/23/04 46 46 4 * 1 1 1
4/18/04 48 43 6 * 2 1 *
3/7/04 44 48 3 * 1 2 2
Net Leaned Vote, General Population:
Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
6/20/04 42 48 7 * 1 1 1
5/23/04 45 44 6 * 1 2 1
4/18/04 47 42 7 * 2 1 *
3/7/04 42 47 5 * 1 3 2
4. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely? Definitely ---Chance change mind---- No
vote NET Good Unlikely opin.
Registered voters:
7/25/04 All 78 20 7 13 2
Bush 80 19 7 12 1
Kerry 80 18 5 13 2
7/11/04 Bush 78 22 na na *
Kerry 80 19 na na 1
6/20/04 All 73 26 12 14 *
Bush 80 20 8 12 *
Kerry 74 26 12 13 1
General Population:
6/20/04 All 71 28 13 15 1
Bush 78 21 9 13 *
Kerry 72 27 13 14 1
Compare to:
Gore:
------Change mind------
Definitely vote Good chance Unlikely No opinion
Likely Voters:
11/6/00 92 3 4 1
11/5/00 91 4 5 *
11/4/00 90 4 6 *
11/3/00 88 5 6 1
11/2/00 84 7 9 1
11/1/00 83 7 9 1
10/31/00 83 6 11 1
10/30/00 88 4 8 0
10/29/00 88 5 7 *
10/28/00 88 5 6 1
10/27/00 85 6 8 1
10/26/00 85 6 8 1
10/25/00 84 7 8 1
10/24/00 83 7 8 1
10/23/00 83 7 9 1
10/22/00 80 7 11 1
10/21/00 80 8 10 1
10/20/00 78 10 11 2
10/19/00 80 8 9 2
10/18/00 80 8 9 3
10/17/00 80 8 9 3
Registered Voters:
10/15/00 75 10 13 3
10/9/00 71 10 15 4
10/1/00 68 15 15 2
9/6/00 69 11 18 2
8/20/00 71 9 18 2
8/6/00 65 14 18 3
General Population:
8/6/00 62 16 20 2
7/23/00 58 15 26 2
Bush:
------Change mind------
Definitely vote Good chance Unlikely No opinion
Likely Voters:
11/6/00 92 3 4 1
11/5/00 91 3 4 2
11/4/00 89 4 5 2
11/3/00 88 5 6 2
11/2/00 88 5 6 1
11/1/00 90 5 5 1
10/31/00 89 5 4 1
10/30/00 87 5 7 1
10/29/00 87 5 6 1
10/28/00 86 6 7 1
10/27/00 88 6 6 1
10/26/00 86 5 8 1
10/25/00 86 4 9 *
10/24/00 85 5 10 1
10/23/00 85 6 8 1
10/22/00 86 5 8 1
10/21/00 87 5 7 1
10/20/00 86 4 9 1
10/19/00 85 6 9 1
10/18/00 84 6 9 1
10/17/00 83 8 8 0
Registered Voters:
10/15/00 76 12 12 1
10/9/00 72 11 14 3
10/1/00 71 14 13 2
9/6/00 70 13 16 1
8/20/00 68 12 20 1
8/6/00 68 14 16 1
General Population
8/6/00 65 15 18 2
7/23/00 63 14 22 2
5. (and 5a) (ASKED OF NADER VOTERS AND DON'T KNOWS) If Nader does not run or is not on the ballot, for whom would you vote - (Bush) or (Kerry)? Which one are you leaning toward? Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters:
Write in Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
7/25/04 49 48 0 * 2 1 1
6/20/04 45 53 0 * 1 1 *
5/23/04 47 49 * * 1 1 1
4/18/04 49 48 * * 2 1 *
Net Leaned Vote, General Population:
Write in Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
6/20/04 44 53 0 * 1 1 *
5/23/04 46 48 * * 2 3 1
4/18/04 49 47 * * 2 1 *
6. (and 7) (ASKED OF UNLEANED BUSH/KERRY SUPPORTERS) Do you support Bush/Kerry strongly or not strongly? -------------Bush------------ ------------Kerry------------
Strongly Not strongly No op. Strongly Not strongly No op.
7/25/04 RV 88 11 1 72 26 2
4/18/04 84 15 1 65 34 1
3/7/04 86 14 * 66 32 2
2/11/04 85 14 1 62 34 4
8. (ASKED OF LEANED BUSH SUPPORTERS) Is your vote more for Bush or more against Kerry?
For Bush Against Kerry No opinion
7/25/04 RV 81 17 2
6/20/04 RV 82 17 1
6/20/04 83 16 1
5/23/04 77 21 1
3/7/04 86 13 2
9. (ASKED OF LEANED KERRY SUPPORTERS) Is your vote more for Kerry or more against Bush? For Kerry Against Bush No opinion
7/25/04 RV 41 56 3
6/20/04 RV 43 55 1
6/20/04 44 55 1
5/23/04 38 61 1
3/7/04 38 61 1
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
---------Approve--------- --------Disapprove------- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opin.
7/25/04 50 32 19 47 13 34 3
7/11/04 48 31 17 50 11 39 2
6/20/04 47 30 17 51 13 39 1
5/23/04 47 31 17 50 14 36 3
4/18/04 51 33 18 47 13 34 1
3/7/04 50 32 18 48 12 36 2
2/11/04 50 30 21 47 14 34 2
1/18/04 58 35 24 40 9 30 2
12/21/03 59 39 21 38 15 23 3
12/14/03 57 37 20 39 10 29 5
12/7/03 53 32 21 40 13 27 7
11/16/03 57 34 23 39 11 28 4
10/29/03 56 30 26 42 13 29 2
10/13/03 53 33 20 43 13 29 4
9/30/03 54 34 20 44 15 29 2
9/13/03 58 35 23 40 14 27 2
9/7/03 56 34 22 41 13 28 4
8/11/03 59 37 22 37 14 23 4
7/10/03 59 35 24 38 13 25 3
6/22/03 68 45 23 29 11 18 4
4/30/03 71 50 22 26 17 9 3
4/16/03 74 52 22 23 9 14 3
4/9/03 77 58 19 20 6 14 4
4/3/03 71 54 16 25 7 19 4
3/23/03 68 NA NA 27 NA NA 4
3/20/03 67 NA NA 28 NA NA 5
3/2/03 62 38 23 35 13 22 4
2/23/03 60 NA NA 34 NA NA 6
2/9/03 64 42 21 34 14 20 3
2/1/03 62 41 21 34 13 22 4
1/28/03 62 43 19 36 13 23 2
1/27/03 59 39 21 37 15 22 4
1/20/03 59 36 23 38 16 22 2
12/15/02 66 37 28 32 12 20 2
11/4/02 LV 67 45 23 31 12 20 1
11/3/02 LV 67 45 22 32 12 20 1
11/2/02 LV 67 47 20 32 9 23 1
10/27/02 All 67 39 28 29 13 16 4
10/27/02 LV 68 47 21 30 14 16 3
9/26/02 67 42 25 30 12 18 3
9/8/02 71 42 28 27 12 15 3
7/28/02 69 39 31 28 14 14 3
7/15/02 72 42 31 25 12 13 2
6/17/02 74 42 32 22 9 13 4
6/9/02 77 41 36 20 9 11 3
5/19/02 76 48 28 22 8 13 3
4/21/02 78 47 31 20 9 10 2
3/28/02 79 49 30 18 8 10 3
3/10/02 82 52 30 16 9 7 2
1/27/02 83 56 27 14 7 7 3
12/19/01 86 64 22 12 6 6 2
11/27/01 89 69 21 9 4 5 1
11/6/01 89 65 24 9 5 4 2
10/9/01 92 76 16 6 3 3 1
9/27/01 90 70 20 6 3 3 4
9/13/01 86 63 23 12 5 6 2
9/9/01 55 26 29 41 20 22 3
8/12/01 61 28 33 31 14 17 8
7/30/01 59 28 30 38 17 22 3
6/3/01 55 27 28 40 18 22 6
4/22/01 63 33 30 32 16 16 5
3/25/01 58 NA NA 33 NA NA 8
2/25/01 55 NA NA 23 NA NA 22
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bush is handling (ITEM)? 7/25/04 - Summary Table
Approve Disapprove No op.
a. The economy 47 50 3
b. The situation in Iraq 45 53 2
c. Education 49 41 9
d. The US campaign against terrorism 57 40 4
e. Health care 38 53 9
f. Taxes 49 46 5
Trend:
a. The economy
Approve Disapprove No opinion
7/25/04 47 50 3
7/11/04 45 53 2
6/20/04 46 53 1
5/23/04 44 54 2
4/18/04 44 54 2
3/7/04 39 59 1
2/11/04 44 54 2
1/18/04 51 47 2
12/21/03 51 44 5
11/16/03 48 49 3
10/29/03 45 53 2
10/13/03 45 52 2
9/13/03 42 56 3
9/7/03 44 51 5
8/11/03 45 51 5
7/10/03 47 49 4
4/30/03 52 45 3
2/9/03 47 49 4
2/1/03 44 52 4
1/28/03 46 49 4
1/27/03 47 47 5
1/20/03 43 53 4
1/5/03 50 43 7
12/15/02 50 46 4
11/4/02 LV 53 45 2
11/3/02 LV 52 46 2
11/2/02 LV 55 43 2
10/27/02 51 43 6
10/27/02 LV 53 44 3
9/26/02 51 47 3
9/8/02 57 40 4
7/28/02 57 39 4
7/15/02 58 38 3
4/21/02 64 33 3
1/27/02 62 34 4
12/19/01 67 27 6
11/6/01 72 23 5
9/9/01 48 48 4
7/30/01 52 45 3
6/3/01 53 41 6
4/22/01 55 38 7
3/25/01 50 42 8
b. The situation in Iraq
Approve Disapprove No opinion
7/25/04 45 53 2
7/11/04 43 55 2
6/20/04 44 55 2
5/23/04 40 58 2
4/18/04 45 54 1
3/7/04 46 53 1
2/11/04 47 52 1
1/18/04 55 42 2
12/21/03 60 39 2
12/14/03 58 38 4
11/16/03 48 48 4
10/29/03 47 51 2
10/13/03 51 47 2
9/29/03 50 47 3
9/13/03 52 46 2
9/7/03 49 47 4
8/24/03 56 37 7
8/11/03 56 41 3
7/10/03 58 41 2
6/22/03 67 30 2
4/30/03 75 22 2
Compare to: The situation with Iraq and Saddam Hussein
3/27/03 69 26 5
3/23/03 71 26 3
3/20/03 65 29 5
3/17/03 64 29 7
3/9/03 55 38 8
2/23/03 55 39 6
2/9/03 61 37 2
2/5/03 61 32 7
2/1/03 61 35 3
1/28/03 58 38 4
1/27/03 57 40 3
1/20/03 50 46 4
12/15/02 58 37 5
11/4/02 LV 56 40 4
11/3/02 LV 57 40 4
11/2/02 LV 56 41 3
10/27/02 57 38 5
9/26/02 58 39 3
9/14/02 65 31 4
8/29/02 52 36 12
c. Education
Approve Disapprove No opinion
7/25/04 49 41 9
7/11/04 50 44 7
6/20/04 51 45 5
4/18/04 51 43 6
3/7/04 50 45 5
2/11/04 47 45 8
1/18/04 55 37 9
12/21/03 47 37 15
10/29/03 55 38 7
9/13/03 56 39 6
4/30/03 59 34 7
12/15/02 62 30 8
9/26/02 61 32 7
7/15/02 62 31 6
1/27/02 71 21 8
9/9/01 61 32 7
7/30/01 63 31 5
6/3/01 57 35 8
4/22/01 60 28 12
d. The US campaign against terrorism
Approve Disapprove No opinion
7/25/04 57 40 4
7/11/04 55 43 2
6/20/04 50 48 2
5/23/04 58 39 4
4/18/04 63 35 2
3/7/04 63 34 3
2/11/04 64 34 2
1/18/04 66 33 2
12/21/03 70 28 2
10/29/03 63 35 2
10/13/03 66 30 4
9/13/03 70 27 3
9/7/03 67 28 5
4/30/03 79 19 2
2/9/03 74 23 4
2/1/03 75 21 3
1/27/03 72 26 2
1/20/03 71 25 4
12/15/02 79 20 1
11/4/02 LV 76 22 1
11/3/02 LV 77 22 3
11/2/02 LV 78 21 2
10/27/02 All 74 23 4
10/27/02 LV 78 20 2
9/26/02 70 28 2
9/8/02 74 24 2
7/28/02 81 17 2
7/15/02 83 15 2
5/19/02* 79 19 3
4/21/02* 81 18 2
3/10/02* 88 10 2
1/27/02 88 10 2
12/19/01* 89 9 2
10/15/01* 92 5 3
*Asked very/somewhat follow-up
e. Health care
Approve Disapprove No opinion
7/25/04 38 53 9
6/20/04 39 57 4
Compare to: The cost, availability and coverage of health insurance
4/18/04 33 61 5
3/7/04 32 62 6
2/11/04 32 62 6
1/18/04 37 55 8
12/21/03 34 56 10
10/29/03 28 63 9
10/13/03 30 60 10
9/13/03 32 61 7
4/30/03 34 57 9
1/28/03 40 47 13
1/20/03 36 51 13
12/15/02 33 58 9
f. Taxes
Approve Disapprove No opinion
7/25/04 49 46 5
6/20/04 42 54 4
4/18/04 48 49 3
3/7/04 50 47 3
1/18/04 45 51 4
10/29/03 41 53 6
9/13/03 48 48 4
8/11/03 49 46 5
4/30/03 50 46 4
2/1/03 51 43 7
1/20/03 50 45 5
12/15/02 51 44 5
12. Regardless of how you might vote, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of (NAME) or perhaps you don't know enough to say. 7/25/04 - Summary Table-- Registered voters
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
a. John Kerry 48 39 12
b. George W. Bush 54 43 3
c. Dick Cheney 43 41 17
d. John Edwards 50 24 26
e. Teresa Heinz Kerry 27 26 47
f. Ralph Nader 25 44 31
g. Laura Bush 66 12 22
Trend where available:
a. John Kerry
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
7/25/04 RV 48 39 12
3/7/04 54 26 20
b. George W. Bush
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
7/25/04 RV 54 43 3
3/7/04 47 46 7
9/6/00 RV 58 31 11
6/11/00 50 28 22
4/2/00 50 31 19
2/27/00 49 39 11
10/31/99 69 24 8
9/2/99 61 23 16
6/6/99 54 15 30
3/14/99 54 14 32
2/14/99 51 13 36
1/19/98 34 13 53
c. Dick Cheney
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
7/25/04 RV 43 41 17
3/7/04 35 43 23
9/6/00 RV 42 20 38
7/29/00 29 10 60
d,e. No trend.
f. Ralph Nader
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
7/25/04 RV 25 44 31
3/7/04 23 43 34
9/6/00 RV 31 29 39
7/23/00 29 27 44
g. Laura Bush
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
7/25/04 RV 66 12 22
1/27/02 81 8 11
13. What will be the single most important issue in your vote for president this year: (The U.S. campaign against terrorism), (the war in Iraq), (the economy and jobs), (education), (health care), or something else? Economy/ Educ- Health No
Terrorism Iraq jobs ation care Other op.
7/25/04 RV 20 21 27 7 12 12 1
14. Who do you trust to do a better job handling (ITEM), (Bush) or (Kerry)? 7/25/04 - Summary Table-- Registered voters
Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
a. The economy 47 46 1 3 4
b. The situation in Iraq 52 40 1 3 3
c. Education 44 45 1 4 6
d. The US campaign against
terrorism 55 37 2 3 3
e. Health care 44 47 1 4 5
f. Taxes 49 43 1 4 4
Trend where available:
a. The economy
Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
7/25/04 RV 47 46 1 3 4
7/11/04 RV 44 50 1 3 2
7/11/04 43 51 1 3 3
6/20/04 RV 45 50 1 2 1
6/20/04 45 50 1 3 1
5/23/04 43 48 * 5 3
4/18/04 47 47 1 4 1
3/7/04 41 53 * 4 2
2/11/04 41 49 1 4 5
b. The situation in Iraq
Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
7/25/04 RV 52 40 1 3 3
7/11/04 RV 47 47 1 4 2
7/11/04 47 47 1 3 2
6/20/04 RV 49 47 * 3 1
6/20/04 50 45 * 4 1
5/23/04 48 42 * 6 3
4/18/04 52 41 * 4 2
3/7/04 47 48 1 3 2
2/11/04 48 41 1 6 5
c. Education
Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
7/25/04 RV 44 45 1 4 6
7/11/04 RV 40 50 1 4 4
7/11/04 40 50 1 4 5
6/20/04 42 52 1 2 2
6/20/04 RV 43 52 1 2 2
6/20/04 42 52 1 2 2
4/18/04 47 44 1 6 2
3/7/04 40 52 1 3 4
2/11/04 40 49 1 6 5
d. The U.S. campaign against terrorism
Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
7/25/04 RV 55 37 2 3 3
7/11/04 RV 51 43 1 3 3
7/11/04 51 42 1 3 3
6/20/04 47 48 1 3 1
6/20/04 RV 48 47 * 3 2
6/20/04 47 48 1 3 1
5/23/04 52 39 1 4 4
4/18/04 58 37 1 3 1
3/7/04 57 36 2 2 3
2/11/04 53 37 1 4 5
e. Health care
Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
7/25/04 RV 44 47 1 4 5
6/20/04 RV 38 56 * 3 2
6/20/04 37 58 * 4 2
Compare to: The cost, availability, and coverage of health insurance
4/18/04 42 48 1 6 3
3/7/04 36 56 0 5 2
2/11/04 34 52 1 7 6
f. Taxes
Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
7/25/04 RV 49 43 1 4 4
6/20/04 RV 41 53 0 4 2
6/20/04 40 53 0 4 2
4/18/04 49 43 * 6 2
3/7/04 43 51 1 4 2
15. Please tell me whether the following statement applies more to (Bush) or more to (Kerry). 7/25/04 - Summary Table -- Registered voters
Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
a. He is honest and
trustworthy 46 40 2 10 2
b. He understands the
problems of people like
you 42 46 1 9 2
c. He is a strong leader 55 36 2 5 2
d. He takes a position
and sticks with it 64 24 2 7 3
e. He will make the
country safer and
more secure 54 38 1 4 2
f. He shares your values 49 43 1 5 2
Trend:
a. He is honest and trustworthy
Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
7/25/04 RV 46 40 2 10 2
6/20/04 RV 40 52 1 6 1
6/20/04 39 52 1 6 1
b. He understands the problems of people like you
Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
7/25/04 RV 42 46 1 9 2
6/20/04 RV 37 55 1 7 1
6/20/04 36 56 1 6 2
c. He is a strong leader
Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
7/25/04 RV 55 36 2 5 2
6/20/04 RV 50 45 1 3 2
6/20/04 51 43 2 3 2
d. He takes a position and sticks with it
Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
7/25/04 RV 64 24 2 7 3
6/20/04 RV 60 34 1 4 1
6/20/04 57 36 1 5 1
e. He will make the country safer and more secure
Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
7/25/04 RV 54 38 1 4 2
6/20/04 RV 53 42 1 2 2
6/20/04 54 40 1 3 2
f. He shares your values
Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
7/25/04 RV 49 43 1 5 2
6/20/04 RV 46 48 1 3 1
6/20/04 46 48 1 4 1
16. In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time? Satisfied Dissatisfied No opinion
7/25/04 46 53 1
4/9/03 65 32 3
3/23/03* 60 38 2
3/5/03* 36 61 3
2/9/03 49 49 2
7/30/01 53 47 1
11/4/00 LV 61 36 3
11/3/00 LV 61 35 4
11/2/00 LV 62 35 4
*Gallup.
17. In your opinion, is the outcome of this presidential election especially important, or is it no more important than any other presidential election? (IF ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT) Would you say it's one of the single most important elections of your lifetime, or not that important? -------Especially important------
One of the Not that No more No
NET single most important important opinion
7/25/04 75 61 13 24 1
11/5/00* RV 67 NA NA 31 2
11/2/96* RV 60 NA NA 38 1
*Pew Research Center
18. Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the way things are going in this country?
Optimistic Pessimistic No opinion
7/25/04 RV 67 30 3
6/20/04 62 36 2
1/14/03 69 29 2 19. What about (NAME) - would you say he's more of an optimist, or more of a pessimist?
7/25/04 - Summary Table, Registered Voters
Optimist Pessimist No opinion
a. Kerry 55 34 11
b. Bush 72 22 6
20. What problem or issue facing the country would you like Kerry to talk about most in his nationally televised speech at the Democratic convention? Registered Voters:
7/25/04
Iraq/the war 19
Terrorism 15
Economy/jobs 20
Health care 13
Education 5
Morals/values 3
Social Security 1
Medicare/prescription drugs 1
The deficit *
Civil rights 1
Abortion *
Gay marriage *
Plan/vision for America 3
Taxes 1
Global diplomacy/foreign policy 2
Other 3
Don't care/doesn't matter 8
No opinion 5
21. Thinking about his candidacy for president so far, how enthusiastic are you about (Kerry/Bush) - very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all? 7/25/04 - Summary Table -- Registered voters
----Enthusiastic--- -----Not Enthusiastic----- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opin.
a. Kerry 46 19 27 54 22 32 *
b. Bush 48 25 23 52 15 37 *
Trend:
----Enthusiastic--- -----Not Enthusiastic----- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all opin.
Kerry
7/25/04 RV 46 19 27 54 22 32 *
6/20/04 RV 47 18 30 53 18 35 0
6/20/04 47 17 30 53 19 33 0
Bush
7/25/04 RV 48 25 23 52 15 37 *
6/20/04 RV 43 23 20 57 16 41 *
6/20/04 42 21 21 58 18 39 *
Compare to:
Gore
4/2/00 45 17 28 55 23 32 *
2/27/00 43 17 26 56 23 33 1
3/14/99 39 12 27 59 24 35 1
Bush
4/2/00 50 20 29 50 24 26 *
2/27/00 50 18 32 50 19 30 1
3/14/99 55 17 38 42 21 21 3
Compare to 7/17/95:
Bill Clinton 46 15 31 54 16 38 *
Bob Dole 35 8 27 64 24 39 1
Newt Gingrich 20 7 13 77 18 59 3
Phil Gramm 17 2 15 73 21 52 10
Colin Powell 48 15 33 46 17 29 6
Pat Buchanan 15 2 13 80 20 59 5
Ross Perot 24 9 15 75 18 58 *
22. How much do you feel you know about (NAME)'s positions on specific issues - a great deal, a good amount, only some, or hardly anything? 7/25/04 - Summary Table-- Registered voters
Great deal/ --Some/Hardly anything/Nothing-
---Good amount--- Nothing No
NET Great Good NET Some Hardly any. (vol.) op.
a. Kerry 46 12 33 54 35 17 1 1
b. Bush 74 29 54 26 21 5 * *
Trend:
a. Kerry
Great deal/ --Some/Hardly anything/Nothing-
---Good amount--- Nothing No
NET Great Good NET Some Hardly any. (vol.) op.
7/25/04 RV 46 12 33 54 35 17 1 1
5/23/04 42 10 31 54 35 19 3 1
10/29/03* 19 5 14 79 27 42 10 2
*Asked of leaned Democrats
b. Bush
Great deal/ --Some/Hardly anything/Nothing-
---Good amount--- Nothing No
NET Great Good NET Some Hardly any. (vol.) op.
7/25/04 RV 74 29 54 26 21 5 * *
5/23/04 67 24 44 32 23 8 1 *
23. Do you think (NAME)'s views on most issues are too (liberal) for you, too (conservative) for you, or just about right? 7/25/04 - Summary Table -- Registered voters
Too Too About No
liberal conservative right opin.
a. Kerry 40 8 46 6
b. Bush 12 38 48 3
Trend:
a. Kerry
Too Too About No
liberal conservative right opin.
7/25/04 RV 40 8 46 6
6/20/04 RV 36 9 51 4
6/20/04 34 10 51 5
3/7/04 33 6 52 8
b. Bush
Too Too About No
liberal conservative right opin.
7/25/04 RV 12 38 48 3
6/20/04 RV 14 38 46 2
6/20/04 14 38 46 2
3/7/04 14 33 49 4
12/21/03 14 29 52 5
6/3/01 15 32 50 4
4/22/01 10 31 55 3
9/6/00 RV 12 31 51 6
7/23/00 RV 12 29 52 7
7/23/00 12 28 52 8
3/11/00 12 28 52 8
2/27/00 10 33 51 5
2/24/00 12 33 43 12
2/6/00 12 30 49 8
9/2/99 10 20 58 13
3/14/99 7 20 53 20
24. Will Kerry's choice of John Edwards for vice president make you more likely to vote for Kerry, less likely, or won't it make any difference in your vote? More Less No difference No opinion
7/25/04 RV 24 9 66 *
Gore's choice of Lieberman:
8/7/00 15 10 73 2
Bush's choice of Cheney:
7/29/00 13 7 77 3
Dole's choice of Kemp:
8/15/96* 18 6 75 1
8/14/96 20 7 71 1
8/13/96 21 7 70 3
8/12/96 17 6 74 3
8/11/96 16 5 76 3
8/10/96 14 7 75 4
*All based on registered voters
Perot's choice of Choate
9/10/96* 4 7 86 4
*All based on registered voters
Bush's choice of Quayle
Not voting No
More Less No difference for Bush opinion
9/19/88* 7 19 68 4 2
8/18/88** 11 14 67 5 3
8/17/88** 13 10 72 2 3
*based on registered voters
**based on general population
Dukakis' choice of Bentsen
Not voting No
More Less No difference for Dukakis opinion
9/19/88* 20 6 71 2 1
7/17/88** 13 8 73 2 4
* based on registered voters
** based on general population
27. All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
----Worth fighting---- ----Not worth fighting--- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly op.
7/25/04 49 36 13 48 11 37 3
7/11/04 45 34 10 53 12 42 2
6/20/04 47 32 14 52 13 39 2
5/23/04 48 35 13 50 13 37 1
5/6/04 49 NA NA 47 NA NA 5
4/18/04 51 47 2
3/7/04 52 44 3
2/11/04 48 50 2
1/18/04 56 41 3
12/21/03 59 39 2
12/14/03 53 42 5
11/16/03 52 44 4
10/29/03 54 44 2
10/13/03 54 44 2
9/13/03 61 37 2
9/7/03 54 42 4
8/24/03 57 37 5
8/11/03 61 35 4
7/10/03 57 40 3
6/22/03 64 33 3
4/30/03 70 " " 27 " " 4
Gulf War:
2/2/92* 66 NA NA 32 NA NA 2
7/28/91 67 30 3
6/2/91 70 26 3
3/4/91 86 " " 13 " " 1
*2/2/92 and previous: "the Persian Gulf war"; 3/4/91: "this war
28. Do you think the war with Iraq has or has not contributed to the long-term security of the United States? IF YES: Has it contributed to the long-term security of the United States a great deal, or somewhat? ----------Contributed---------- Has No
NET Great deal Somewhat not opin.
7/25/04 51 32 19 45 3
7/11/04 53 30 24 43 4
6/20/04 51 28 23 46 2
5/23/04 54 30 24 43 3
4/18/04 57 33 24 40 3
3/7/04 57 29 29 40 3
2/11/04 58 32 26 38 4
1/18/04 59 34 25 38 3
12/21/03 62 34 29 34 4
7/10/03* 62 33 29 35 3
*"did or did not"
29. In making its case for war with Iraq, do you think the Bush administration (told the American public what it believed to be true), or (intentionally misled the American public)? Told the American public Intentionally misled No
what it believed to be true the American public opinion
7/25/04 55 42 3
30. On another subject, would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good or poor? ----Excellent/Good----- -----Not so good/Poor----- No
NET Excellent Good NET Not so good Poor op.
7/25/04 46 4 42 53 39 14 *
6/20/04 45 4 41 55 38 17 *
4/18/04 43 4 39 57 39 18 *
3/7/04 39 2 37 60 38 22 1
1/18/04 42 3 39 58 42 16 0
12/21/03 42 4 39 57 41 16 1
10/29/03 33 1 32 67 45 23 *
9/13/03 30 2 27 70 45 25 *
8/11/03 32 2 30 68 43 25 *
4/30/03 35 1 34 64 46 19 *
2/9/03 28 1 27 72 49 23 *
1/20/03 25 1 25 74 48 26 1
12/15/02 35 1 33 65 44 21 1
11/4/02 LV 28 1 27 72 55 17 1
11/3/02 LV 27 1 26 72 56 17 1
11/2/02 LV 29 1 28 71 54 17 *
9/26/02 31 2 28 69 50 19 *
7/15/02 39 3 36 61 44 17 1
2/21/02 30 1 29 69 51 18 *
1/27/02 31 1 29 69 50 19 *
9/20/01 38 3 35 60 47 14 2
9/9/01 33 1 32 66 47 19 *
7/30/01 50 3 46 50 39 12 *
4/22/01 50 3 47 50 40 9 *
1/15/01 70 10 59 29 24 6 1
10/27/00 LV 86 24 61 14 11 3 *
10/26/00 LV 86 24 61 14 11 3 *
6/11/00 74 17 57 26 19 6 *
2/27/00 80 25 55 20 14 5 *
10/31/99 74 18 56 26 18 7 1
9/2/99 76 19 57 23 16 6 1
3/14/99 80 22 58 19 15 4 1
11/1/98 73 12 61 26 21 5 1
11/1/98 LV 78 13 65 22 19 3 *
10/13/97 61 12 49 39 27 11 *
31. Would you say most Americans are better off financially than they were in 2001 when Bush became president, not as well off, or in about the same shape as then financially?
Better Not as The No
off well off same opinion
7/25/04 15 41 43 1
6/20/04 17 45 37 1
4/18/04 18 43 37 2
3/7/04 17 43 38 1
2/11/04 14 47 38 1
1/18/04 13 42 43 2
12/21/03 17 40 41 2
10/29/03 9 49 41 1
9/13/03 9 52 38 1
4/30/03 10 48 42 1
George H. W. Bush
8/9/92 6 61 31 1
10/21/91 7 48 41 4
3/4/91 7 35 56 2
1/16/89 33 26 38 3
25. Do you think the United States is winning or losing the war on terrorism? Neither/It's No
Winning Losing a draw (vol.) opinion
7/25/04 51 34 10 5
7/11/04 46 38 13 3
4/18/04 54 30 13 3
3/7/04 56 27 14 3
10/6/02 47 24 21 9
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