Washington Post-ABC News Poll: Elections 2004
Monday, August 30, 2004 | | | | This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone August 26-29, 2004 among 1,207 randomly selected adults nationwide, including 945 self-identified registered voters. Margin of sampling error for overall results and for registered voters is plus or minus three percentage points. Fieldwork by TNS of Horsham, Pa. *= less than 0.5 percent 1. How closely are you following the 2004 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No
closely closely closely at all opin.
8/29/04 RV 43 38 13 7 *
8/1/04 RV 41 39 13 7 *
7/25/04 34 39 15 12 *
7/11/04* 36 43 13 7 1
6/20/04 33 45 15 7 *
5/23/04 33 41 17 9 *
4/18/04 30 45 16 9 0
3/7/04 33 42 18 7 *
2/11/04 30 45 15 10 *
1/18/04 22 44 22 13 *
10/29/03 15 39 30 15 0
9/13/03 16 40 27 17 *
*Washington Post only Compare to: How closely are you following the 2000 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No
closely closely closely at all opin.
Likely Voters:
11/6/00 54 38 6 2 *
11/5/00 53 38 6 2 *
11/4/00 52 39 7 2 *
11/3/00 51 40 6 3 *
11/2/00 48 42 7 3 *
11/1/00 48 43 7 2 *
10/31/00 46 44 7 2 *
10/30/00 47 44 7 2 *
10/29/00 47 43 7 3 *
10/28/00 47 42 7 3 *
10/27/00 48 41 7 4 *
10/26/00 47 42 8 3 *
10/25/00 47 42 8 3 0
10/24/00 44 43 10 3 0
10/23/00 44 45 8 3 0
10/22/00 44 44 9 3 0
10/21/00 46 41 9 4 *
10/20/00 46 40 11 4 *
10/19/00 44 41 10 4 *
10/18/00 42 45 10 3 *
10/17/00 40 46 10 3 *
Registered Voters:
10/15/00 33 44 15 8 *
10/9/00 30 45 16 9 *
10/1/00 27 48 17 8 *
9/6/00 26 48 17 9 *
8/20/00 28 46 16 10 1
8/10/00 29 43 18 11 *
General Population:
8/6/00 17 36 22 25 *
7/29/00 16 35 25 24 *
7/23/00 14 36 25 25 *
6/11/00 13 36 26 25 0
4/2/00 17 36 24 23 0
3/11/00 21 40 21 17 0
2/27/00 24 46 20 10 *
2/6/00 19 48 21 13 0
1/16/00 11 39 26 24 *
12/15/99 12 33 31 24 *
10/31/99 16 45 25 13 * 2. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? Don't think
Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote No
to vote vote 50/50 50/50 (vol.) op.
8/29/04 RV 84 10 4 2 * 0
8/1/04 RV 85 9 4 1 1 *
7/25/04 RV 85 7 5 2 * *
10/29/03 70 12 11 6 1 0 Compare to: I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? Don't think
Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote No
to vote vote 50/50 50/50 (vol.) op.
Registered Voters:
10/15/00 82 10 6 2 1 *
10/9/00 81 10 6 2 * *
10/1/00 81 10 5 3 1 *
9/6/00 78 12 5 3 1 *
8/20/00 78 13 6 3 1 0
8/10/00 79 12 6 1 1 *
General Population:
8/6/00 64 12 11 8 5 *
7/29/00 61 15 9 11 3 *
7/23/00 59 17 10 11 4 *
6/11/00 60 13 11 10 4 *
5/10/00 63 15 10 8 4 1
4/2/00 62 14 9 9 5 *
3/11/00 63 14 9 9 4 *
2/27/00 69 12 10 4 5 *
2/6/00 67 12 10 8 3 *
1/16/00 65 14 10 6 4 *
12/15/99 64 13 8 9 6 1
10/31/99 72 11 10 5 3 * 3. (and 3a) If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for (George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans), (John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats), or Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, the independents? Which candidates are you leaning toward? Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters: Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
8/29/04 48 48 1 * 1 0 2
8/1/04 47 49 2 * 1 0 1
7/25/04 50 46 2 * 1 * 1 Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters: Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
8/29/04 48 47 2 * 1 * 2
8/1/04 44 50 2 * 1 1 2
7/25/04 48 46 3 * 1 * 1
7/11/04* 46 46 4 1 2 1 1
6/20/04 44 48 6 * 1 * 1
5/23/04 46 46 4 * 1 1 1
4/18/04 48 43 6 * 2 1 *
3/7/04 44 48 3 * 1 2 2
*Washington Post only Net Leaned Vote, General Population: Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
7/11/04* 45 46 5 1 2 1 1
6/20/04 42 48 7 * 1 1 1
5/23/04 45 44 6 * 1 2 1
4/18/04 47 42 7 * 2 1 *
3/7/04 42 47 5 * 1 3 2
*Washington Post only 4. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely? Definitely ---Chance change mind---- No
vote NET Good Unlikely opin.
Registered voters:
8/29/04 All 81 18 7 11 1
Bush 82 16 7 10 1
Kerry 81 18 6 12 1
8/1/04 All 80 19 7 12 1
Bush 79 20 7 13 1
Kerry 83 16 5 11 1
7/25/04 All 78 20 7 13 2
Bush 80 19 7 12 1
Kerry 80 18 5 13 2
7/11/04*All 79 21 7 13 1
Bush 78 22 8 14 *
Kerry 80 19 7 13 1
6/20/04 All 73 26 12 14 *
Bush 80 20 8 12 *
Kerry 74 26 12 13 1
General Population:
6/20/04 All 71 28 13 15 1
Bush 78 21 9 13 *
Kerry 72 27 13 14 1
*Washington Post only Compare to: Gore:
------Change mind------
Definitely vote Good chance Unlikely No opinion
Likely Voters:
11/6/00 92 3 4 1
11/5/00 91 4 5 *
11/4/00 90 4 6 *
11/3/00 88 5 6 1
11/2/00 84 7 9 1
11/1/00 83 7 9 1
10/31/00 83 6 11 1
10/30/00 88 4 8 0
10/29/00 88 5 7 *
10/28/00 88 5 6 1
10/27/00 85 6 8 1
10/26/00 85 6 8 1
10/25/00 84 7 8 1
10/24/00 83 7 8 1
10/23/00 83 7 9 1
10/22/00 80 7 11 1
10/21/00 80 8 10 1
10/20/00 78 10 11 2
10/19/00 80 8 9 2
10/18/00 80 8 9 3
10/17/00 80 8 9 3
Registered Voters:
10/15/00 75 10 13 3
10/9/00 71 10 15 4
10/1/00 68 15 15 2
9/6/00 69 11 18 2
8/20/00 71 9 18 2
8/6/00 65 14 18 3
General Population:
8/6/00 62 16 20 2
7/23/00 58 15 26 2
Bush:
------Change mind------
Definitely vote Good chance Unlikely No opinion
Likely Voters:
11/6/00 92 3 4 1
11/5/00 91 3 4 2
11/4/00 89 4 5 2
11/3/00 88 5 6 2
11/2/00 88 5 6 1
11/1/00 90 5 5 1
10/31/00 89 5 4 1
10/30/00 87 5 7 1
10/29/00 87 5 6 1
10/28/00 86 6 7 1
10/27/00 88 6 6 1
10/26/00 86 5 8 1
10/25/00 86 4 9 *
10/24/00 85 5 10 1
10/23/00 85 6 8 1
10/22/00 86 5 8 1
10/21/00 87 5 7 1
10/20/00 86 4 9 1
10/19/00 85 6 9 1
10/18/00 84 6 9 1
10/17/00 83 8 8 0
Registered Voters:
10/15/00 76 12 12 1
10/9/00 72 11 14 3
10/1/00 71 14 13 2
9/6/00 70 13 16 1
8/20/00 68 12 20 1
8/6/00 68 14 16 1
General Population
8/6/00 65 15 18 2
7/23/00 63 14 22 2
5. (and 5a) (ASKED OF NADER VOTERS AND DON'T KNOWS) If Nader does not run or is not on the ballot, for whom would you vote - (Bush) or (Kerry)? Which one are you leaning toward? Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters: Write in Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
8/29/04 49 49 * * 1 * 1
8/1/04 48 49 0 * 1 0 1
7/25/04 51 47 0 * 1 * 1 Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters: Write in Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
8/29/04 48 49 * * 1 * 1
8/1/04 45 52 0 * 2 1 1
7/25/04 49 48 0 * 2 1 1
6/20/04 45 53 0 * 1 1 *
5/23/04 47 49 * * 1 1 1
4/18/04 49 48 * * 2 1 * Net Leaned Vote, General Population: Write in Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
6/20/04 44 53 0 * 1 1 *
5/23/04 46 48 * * 2 3 1
4/18/04 49 47 * * 2 1 * 6. (and 7) (ASKED OF UNLEANED BUSH/KERRY SUPPORTERS) Do you support Bush/Kerry strongly or not strongly? -------------Bush------------ ------------Kerry------------
Strongly Not strongly No op. Strongly Not strongly No op.
8/29/04 RV 86 13 2 76 23 1
8/1/04 RV 86 14 * 85 14 1
7/25/04 RV 88 11 1 72 26 2
4/18/04 RV 88 11 1 66 33 1
4/18/04 84 15 1 65 34 1
3/7/04 86 14 * 66 32 2
2/11/04 85 14 1 62 34 4 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? ---------Approve--------- --------Disapprove------- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opin.
8/29/04 50 31 19 47 13 34 3
8/1/04 47 28 18 49 13 36 5
7/25/04 50 32 19 47 13 34 3
7/11/04* 48 31 17 50 11 39 2
6/20/04 47 30 17 51 13 39 1
5/23/04 47 31 17 50 14 36 3
4/18/04 51 33 18 47 13 34 1
3/7/04 50 32 18 48 12 36 2
2/11/04 50 30 21 47 14 34 2
1/18/04 58 35 24 40 9 30 2
12/21/03 59 39 21 38 15 23 3
12/14/03 57 37 20 39 10 29 5
12/7/03 53 32 21 40 13 27 7
11/16/03 57 34 23 39 11 28 4
10/29/03 56 30 26 42 13 29 2
10/13/03 53 33 20 43 13 29 4
9/30/03 54 34 20 44 15 29 2
9/13/03 58 35 23 40 14 27 2
9/7/03 56 34 22 41 13 28 4
8/11/03 59 37 22 37 14 23 4
7/10/03 59 35 24 38 13 25 3
6/22/03 68 45 23 29 11 18 4
4/30/03 71 50 22 26 17 9 3
4/16/03 74 52 22 23 9 14 3
4/9/03 77 58 19 20 6 14 4
4/3/03 71 54 16 25 7 19 4
3/23/03 68 NA NA 27 NA NA 4
3/20/03 67 NA NA 28 NA NA 5
3/2/03 62 38 23 35 13 22 4
2/23/03 60 NA NA 34 NA NA 6
2/9/03 64 42 21 34 14 20 3
2/1/03 62 41 21 34 13 22 4
1/28/03 62 43 19 36 13 23 2
1/27/03 59 39 21 37 15 22 4
1/20/03 59 36 23 38 16 22 2
12/15/02 66 37 28 32 12 20 2
11/4/02 LV 67 45 23 31 12 20 1
11/3/02 LV 67 45 22 32 12 20 1
11/2/02 LV 67 47 20 32 9 23 1
10/27/02 All 67 39 28 29 13 16 4
10/27/02 LV 68 47 21 30 14 16 3
9/26/02 67 42 25 30 12 18 3
9/8/02 71 42 28 27 12 15 3
7/28/02 69 39 31 28 14 14 3
7/15/02 72 42 31 25 12 13 2
6/17/02 74 42 32 22 9 13 4
6/9/02 77 41 36 20 9 11 3
5/19/02 76 48 28 22 8 13 3
4/21/02 78 47 31 20 9 10 2
3/28/02 79 49 30 18 8 10 3
3/10/02 82 52 30 16 9 7 2
1/27/02 83 56 27 14 7 7 3
12/19/01 86 64 22 12 6 6 2
11/27/01 89 69 21 9 4 5 1
11/6/01 89 65 24 9 5 4 2
10/9/01 92 76 16 6 3 3 1
9/27/01 90 70 20 6 3 3 4
9/13/01 86 63 23 12 5 6 2
9/9/01 55 26 29 41 20 22 3
8/12/01 61 28 33 31 14 17 8
7/30/01 59 28 30 38 17 22 3
6/3/01 55 27 28 40 18 22 6
4/22/01 63 33 30 32 16 16 5
3/25/01 58 NA NA 33 NA NA 8
2/25/01 55 NA NA 23 NA NA 22
*Washington Post only 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bush is handling (ITEM)? 8/29/04 - Summary Table - Registered Voters Approve Disapprove No op.
a. The economy 45 52 3
b. The situation in Iraq 47 51 2
c. Education 52 43 5
d. The US campaign against terrorism 60 37 3
e. Health care 39 55 6
f. Taxes 49 48 3 Trend: a. The economy Approve Disapprove No opinion
8/29/04 RV 45 52 3
7/25/04 47 50 3
6/20/04 46 53 1
5/23/04 44 54 2
4/18/04 44 54 2
3/7/04 39 59 1
2/11/04 44 54 2
1/18/04 51 47 2
12/21/03 51 44 5
11/16/03 48 49 3
10/29/03 45 53 2
10/13/03 45 52 2
9/13/03 42 56 3
9/7/03 44 51 5
8/11/03 45 51 5
7/10/03 47 49 4
4/30/03 52 45 3
2/9/03 47 49 4
2/1/03 44 52 4
1/28/03 46 49 4
1/27/03 47 47 5
1/20/03 43 53 4
1/5/03 50 43 7
12/15/02 50 46 4
11/4/02 LV 53 45 2
11/3/02 LV 52 46 2
11/2/02 LV 55 43 2
10/27/02 51 43 6
10/27/02 LV 53 44 3
9/26/02 51 47 3
9/8/02 57 40 4
7/28/02 57 39 4
7/15/02 58 38 3
4/21/02 64 33 3
1/27/02 62 34 4
12/19/01 67 27 6
11/6/01 72 23 5
9/9/01 48 48 4
7/30/01 52 45 3
6/3/01 53 41 6
4/22/01 55 38 7
3/25/01 50 42 8 b. The situation in Iraq Approve Disapprove No opinion
8/29/04 RV 47 51 2
7/25/04 45 53 2
6/20/04 44 55 2
5/23/04 40 58 2
4/18/04 45 54 1
3/7/04 46 53 1
2/11/04 47 52 1
1/18/04 55 42 2
12/21/03 60 39 2
12/14/03 58 38 4
11/16/03 48 48 4
10/29/03 47 51 2
10/13/03 51 47 2
9/29/03 50 47 3
9/13/03 52 46 2
9/7/03 49 47 4
8/24/03 56 37 7
8/11/03 56 41 3
7/10/03 58 41 2
6/22/03 67 30 2
4/30/03 75 22 2 Compare to: The situation with Iraq and Saddam Hussein
3/27/03 69 26 5
3/23/03 71 26 3
3/20/03 65 29 5
3/17/03 64 29 7
3/9/03 55 38 8
2/23/03 55 39 6
2/9/03 61 37 2
2/5/03 61 32 7
2/1/03 61 35 3
1/28/03 58 38 4
1/27/03 57 40 3
1/20/03 50 46 4
12/15/02 58 37 5
11/4/02 LV 56 40 4
11/3/02 LV 57 40 4
11/2/02 LV 56 41 3
10/27/02 57 38 5
9/26/02 58 39 3
9/14/02 65 31 4
8/29/02 52 36 12 c. Education Approve Disapprove No opinion
8/29/04 RV 52 43 5
7/25/04 49 41 9
6/20/04 51 45 5
4/18/04 51 43 6
3/7/04 50 45 5
2/11/04 47 45 8
1/18/04 55 37 9
12/21/03 47 37 15
10/29/03 55 38 7
9/13/03 56 39 6
4/30/03 59 34 7
12/15/02 62 30 8
9/26/02 61 32 7
7/15/02 62 31 6
1/27/02 71 21 8
9/9/01 61 32 7
7/30/01 63 31 5
6/3/01 57 35 8
4/22/01 60 28 12 d. The US campaign against terrorism Approve Disapprove No opinion
8/29/04 RV 60 37 3
7/25/04 57 40 4
6/20/04 50 48 2
5/23/04 58 39 4
4/18/04 63 35 2
3/7/04 63 34 3
2/11/04 64 34 2
1/18/04 66 33 2
12/21/03 70 28 2
10/29/03 63 35 2
10/13/03 66 30 4
9/13/03 70 27 3
9/7/03 67 28 5
4/30/03 79 19 2
2/9/03 74 23 4
2/1/03 75 21 3
1/27/03 72 26 2
1/20/03 71 25 4
12/15/02 79 20 1
11/4/02 LV 76 22 1
11/3/02 LV 77 22 3
11/2/02 LV 78 21 2
10/27/02 All 74 23 4
10/27/02 LV 78 20 2
9/26/02 70 28 2
9/8/02 74 24 2
7/28/02 81 17 2
7/15/02 83 15 2
5/19/02* 79 19 3
4/21/02* 81 18 2
3/10/02* 88 10 2
1/27/02 88 10 2
12/19/01* 89 9 2
10/15/01* 92 5 3
*Asked very/somewhat follow-up e. Health care Approve Disapprove No opinion
8/29/04 RV 39 55 6
7/25/04 38 53 9
6/20/04 39 57 4 Compare to: The cost, availability and coverage of health insurance 4/18/04 33 61 5
3/7/04 32 62 6
2/11/04 32 62 6
1/18/04 37 55 8
12/21/03 34 56 10
10/29/03 28 63 9
10/13/03 30 60 10
9/13/03 32 61 7
4/30/03 34 57 9
1/28/03 40 47 13
1/20/03 36 51 13
12/15/02 33 58 9 f. Taxes Approve Disapprove No opinion
8/29/04 RV 49 48 3
7/25/04 49 46 5
6/20/04 42 54 4
4/18/04 48 49 3
3/7/04 50 47 3
1/18/04 45 51 4
10/29/03 41 53 6
9/13/03 48 48 4
8/11/03 49 46 5
4/30/03 50 46 4
2/1/03 51 43 7
1/20/03 50 45 5
12/15/02 51 44 5 10. Regardless of how you might vote, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of (NAME) or perhaps you don't know enough to say. 8/29/04 - Summary Table, Registered voters Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
a. John Kerry 43 40 17
b. George W. Bush 50 40 9
c. Dick Cheney 41 45 14
d. Laura Bush 66 15 19
e. Arnold Schwarzenegger 46 29 25 Trend: a. John Kerry Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
8/29/04 RV 43 40 17
8/1/04 RV 51 32 16
7/25/04 RV 48 39 12
3/7/04 54 26 20 b. George W. Bush Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
8/29/04 RV 50 40 9
8/1/04 RV 47 45 8
7/25/04 RV 54 43 3
3/7/04 47 46 7
9/6/00 RV 58 31 11
6/11/00 50 28 22
4/2/00 50 31 19
2/27/00 49 39 11
10/31/99 69 24 8
9/2/99 61 23 16
6/6/99 54 15 30
3/14/99 54 14 32
2/14/99 51 13 36
1/19/98 34 13 53 c. Dick Cheney Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
8/29/04 RV 41 45 14
7/25/04 RV 43 41 17
3/7/04 RV 35 45 19
3/7/04 All 35 43 23
9/6/00 RV 42 20 38
7/29/00 29 10 60 d. Laura Bush Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
8/29/04 RV 66 15 19
7/25/04 RV 66 12 22 e. No trend. 11. What will be the single most important issue in your vote for president this year: (The U.S. campaign against terrorism), (the war in Iraq), (the economy and jobs), (education), (health care), or something else? Economy/ Educ- Health No
Terrorism Iraq jobs ation care Other op.
8/29/04 RV 19 19 31 6 12 11 2
8/1/04 RV 20 23 25 7 11 12 2
7/25/04 RV 20 21 27 7 12 12 1 13. Who do you trust to do a better job handling (ITEM), (Bush) or (Kerry)? 8/29/04 - Summary Table, Registered voters Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
a. The economy 48 47 1 2 2
b. The situation in Iraq 52 44 * 2 2
c. Education 47 47 1 2 3
d. The US campaign against
terrorism 56 38 1 2 3
e. Health care 43 50 * 3 4
f. Taxes 48 46 * 2 4
g. Stem cell research 37 45 * 5 12
h. Same-sex marriage 49 37 * 6 7
i. Prescription drug benefits
for the elderly 38 51 * 4 6
j. Helping the middle class 42 51 * 3 3 Trend: a. The economy Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
8/29/04 RV 48 47 1 2 2
8/1/04 RV 41 52 * 3 4
7/25/04 RV 47 46 1 3 4
7/11/04*RV 44 50 1 3 2
7/11/04 43 51 1 3 3
6/20/04 RV 45 50 1 2 1
6/20/04 45 50 1 3 1
5/23/04 43 48 * 5 3
4/18/04 47 47 1 4 1
3/7/04 41 53 * 4 2
2/11/04 41 49 1 4 5
*Washington Post only b. The situation in Iraq Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
8/29/04 RV 52 44 * 2 2
8/1/04 RV 46 48 * 2 4
7/25/04 RV 52 40 1 3 3
7/11/04*RV 47 47 1 4 2
7/11/04 47 47 1 3 2
6/20/04 RV 49 47 * 3 1
6/20/04 50 45 * 4 1
5/23/04 48 42 * 6 3
4/18/04 52 41 * 4 2
3/7/04 47 48 1 3 2
2/11/04 48 41 1 6 5
*Washington Post only c. Education Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
8/29/04 RV 47 47 1 2 3
8/1/04 RV 39 52 1 3 5
7/25/04 RV 44 45 1 4 6
7/11/04*RV 40 50 1 4 4
7/11/04 40 50 1 4 5
6/20/04 RV 43 52 1 2 2
6/20/04 42 52 1 2 2
4/18/04 47 44 1 6 2
3/7/04 40 52 1 3 4
2/11/04 40 49 1 6 5
*Washington Post only d. The U.S. campaign against terrorism Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
8/29/04 RV 56 38 1 2 3
8/1/04 RV 48 45 * 1 5
7/25/04 RV 55 37 2 3 3
7/11/04*RV 51 43 1 3 3
7/11/04 51 42 1 3 3
6/20/04 RV 48 47 * 3 2
6/20/04 47 48 1 3 1
5/23/04 52 39 1 4 4
4/18/04 58 37 1 3 1
3/7/04 57 36 2 2 3
2/11/04 53 37 1 4 5
*Washington Post only e. Health care Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
8/29/04 RV 43 50 * 3 4
8/1/04 RV 36 55 * 3 5
7/25/04 RV 44 47 1 4 5
6/20/04 RV 38 56 * 3 2
6/20/04 37 58 * 4 2 Compare to: The cost, availability, and coverage of health insurance 4/18/04 42 48 1 6 3
3/7/04 36 56 0 5 2
2/11/04 34 52 1 7 6 f. Taxes Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
8/29/04 RV 48 46 * 2 4
8/1/04 RV 43 49 1 3 4
7/25/04 RV 49 43 1 4 4
6/20/04 RV 41 53 0 4 2
6/20/04 40 53 0 4 2
4/18/04 49 43 * 6 2
3/7/04 43 51 1 4 2 g. No trend. h. Same-sex marriage Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
8/29/04 RV 49 37 * 6 7
4/18/04 51 35 1 9 4
3/7/04 44 43 1 6 6 i. Prescription drug benefits for the elderly Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
8/29/04 RV 38 51 * 4 6
6/20/04 38 50 1 7 4
4/18/04 42 45 2 7 4
3/7/04 41 50 1 4 5 j. Helping the middle class Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) opin.
8/29/04 RV 42 51 * 3 3 Compare to: Both Neither No
Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) opin.
10/26/00 LV 48 43 1 5 2
10/15/00 LV 51 41 1 5 1
10/15/00 RV 50 40 1 6 3
10/9/00 RV 49 42 1 5 4
10/1/00 RV 54 36 2 5 3
9/6/00 RV 52 38 1 4 5
8/20/00 RV 52 40 1 4 2
10/31/99 RV 44 41 4 6 5
10/31/99 44 42 3 6 5 14. Please tell me whether the following statement applies more to (Bush) or more to (Kerry). 8/29/04 - Summary Table, Registered voters Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
a. He is honest and
trustworthy 47 41 2 8 3
b. He understands the
problems of people like
you 42 48 1 8 2
c. He is a strong leader 54 39 2 2 3
d. He will make the
country safer and
more secure 53 40 2 3 2
e. He shares your values 47 46 1 4 2
f. He's got a vision for
the future 45 48 3 3 2
g. He's willing to listen to
different points of view 41 50 3 3 3 Trend: a. He is honest and trustworthy Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
8/29/04 RV 47 41 2 8 3
8/1/04 RV 41 47 4 5 2
7/25/04 RV 46 40 2 10 2
6/20/04 RV 40 52 1 6 1
6/20/04 39 52 1 6 1 b. He understands the problems of people like you Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
8/29/04 RV 42 48 1 8 2
8/1/04 RV 37 51 1 8 2
7/25/04 RV 42 46 1 9 2
6/20/04 RV 37 55 1 7 1
6/20/04 36 56 1 6 2 c. He is a strong leader Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
8/29/04 RV 54 39 2 2 3
8/1/04 RV 50 44 2 2 3
7/25/04 RV 55 36 2 5 2
6/20/04 RV 50 45 1 3 2
6/20/04 51 43 2 3 2 d. He will make the country safer and more secure Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
8/29/04 RV 53 40 2 3 2
8/1/04 RV 48 45 1 3 3
7/25/04 RV 54 38 1 4 2
6/20/04 RV 53 42 1 2 2
6/20/04 54 40 1 3 2 e. He shares your values Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
8/29/04 RV 47 46 1 4 2
8/1/04 RV 44 50 1 3 2
7/25/04 RV 49 43 1 5 2
6/20/04 RV 46 48 1 3 1
6/20/04 46 48 1 4 1 f. He's got a vision for the future Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
8/29/04 RV 45 48 3 3 2
8/1/04 RV 39 52 6 2 1 g. No trend. 15. Thinking about his candidacy for president so far, how enthusiastic are you about (Bush/Kerry) - very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all? 8/29/04 - Summary Table, Among Leaned Bush/Kerry Supporters ----Enthusiastic--- -----Not Enthusiastic----- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all op.
a. Bush 94 56 38 6 5 1 *
b. Kerry 89 40 49 11 9 2 * Trend: ----Enthusiastic--- -----Not Enthusiastic----- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all op.
Bush
8/29/04 RV 94 56 38 6 5 1 *
8/1/04 RV 90 53 37 10 8 2 *
7/25/04 RV 90 49 41 10 8 1 *
6/20/04 RV 90 50 40 9 7 2 *
6/20/04 All 90 48 42 10 8 2 * ----Enthusiastic--- -----Not Enthusiastic----- No
NET Very Fairly NET Not too Not at all op.
Kerry
8/29/04 RV 89 40 49 11 9 2 *
8/1/04 RV 92 56 36 7 6 1 1
7/25/04 RV 90 41 49 10 9 1 0
6/20/04 RV 85 34 51 15 12 3 0
6/20/04 All 83 33 50 17 13 4 0 16. In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time? Satisfied Dissatisfied No opinion
8/29/04 RV 44 54 1
7/25/04 46 53 1
4/9/03 65 32 3
3/23/03* 60 38 2
3/5/03* 36 61 3
2/9/03 49 49 2
7/30/01 53 47 1
11/4/00 LV 61 36 3
11/3/00 LV 61 35 4
11/2/00 LV 62 35 4
*Gallup. 18. Who do you think is better qualified to be commander in chief of the U.S. military, (Kerry) or (Bush)? Bush Kerry Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) No op.
8/29/04 RV 53 43 * 2 1
8/1/04 RV 44 52 1 1 2 19. Does (ITEM) make you more likely to support him for president, less likely, or doesn't it affect your vote one way or the other? 8/29/04 - Summary Table - Registered Voters More Less Doesn't No
likely likely affect opin.
a. Kerry's military service in the
Navy during the Vietnam War 24 14 61 1
b. Bush's military service in the
Texas National Guard during the
Vietnam War 7 22 70 1
c. Kerry's opposition to the Vietnam
War after leaving the military 21 26 51 2 20. Kerry was awarded the Silver Star, the Bronze Star and three Purple Hearts for his military service in Vietnam. Given what you know, do you think Kerry did or did not legitimately earn these military decorations? Did Did not No opinion
8/29/04 RV 60 23 17 21. As you may know, a veterans group that opposes Kerry has been running political advertisements challenging Kerry's military record. From what you've heard or read about it, do you approve or disapprove of those ads? Approve Disapprove No opinion
8/29/04 RV 26 67 7 22. Do you think (the Bush campaign is behind these ads), or do you think (the group that placed these ads is operating independently)? Bush campaign Group that placed ads No
is behind ads is operating independently opinion
8/29/04 RV 42 50 8 23. All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? ----Worth fighting---- ----Not worth fighting--- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly op.
8/29/04 RV 48 34 14 50 11 39 2
7/25/04 49 36 13 48 11 37 3
6/20/04 47 32 14 52 13 39 2
5/23/04 48 35 13 50 13 37 1
5/6/04 49 NA NA 47 NA NA 5
4/18/04 51 47 2
3/7/04 52 44 3
2/11/04 48 50 2
1/18/04 56 41 3
12/21/03 59 39 2
12/14/03 53 42 5
11/16/03 52 44 4
10/29/03 54 44 2
10/13/03 54 44 2
9/13/03 61 37 2
9/7/03 54 42 4
8/24/03 57 37 5
8/11/03 61 35 4
7/10/03 57 40 3
6/22/03 64 33 3
4/30/03 70 " " 27 " " 4 Gulf War:
2/2/92* 66 NA NA 32 NA NA 2
7/28/91 67 30 3
6/2/91 70 26 3
3/4/91 86 " " 13 " " 1
*2/2/92 and previous: "the Persian Gulf war"; 3/4/91: "this war 24. Do you think the war with Iraq has or has not contributed to the long- term security of the United States? IF YES: Has it contributed to the long- term security of the United States a great deal, or somewhat? ----------Contributed---------- Has No
NET Great deal Somewhat not opin.
8/29/04 RV 54 33 20 42 4
7/25/04 51 32 19 45 3
6/20/04 51 28 23 46 2
5/23/04 54 30 24 43 3
4/18/04 57 33 24 40 3
3/7/04 57 29 29 40 3
2/11/04 58 32 26 38 4
1/18/04 59 34 25 38 3
12/21/03 62 34 29 34 4
7/10/03* 62 33 29 35 3
*"did or did not" 25. In making its case for war with Iraq, do you think the Bush administration (told the American public what it believed to be true), or (intentionally misled the American public)? Told the American public Intentionally misled No
what it believed to be true the American public opin.
8/29/04 RV 57 40 3
7/25/04 55 42 3 26. On another subject, would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good or poor? ----Excellent/Good----- -----Not so good/Poor----- No
NET Excellent Good NET Not so good Poor op.
8/29/04 RV 45 3 41 55 37 18 *
7/25/04 46 4 42 53 39 14 *
6/20/04 45 4 41 55 38 17 *
4/18/04 43 4 39 57 39 18 *
3/7/04 39 2 37 60 38 22 1
1/18/04 42 3 39 58 42 16 0
12/21/03 42 4 39 57 41 16 1
10/29/03 33 1 32 67 45 23 *
9/13/03 30 2 27 70 45 25 *
8/11/03 32 2 30 68 43 25 *
4/30/03 35 1 34 64 46 19 *
2/9/03 28 1 27 72 49 23 *
1/20/03 25 1 25 74 48 26 1
12/15/02 35 1 33 65 44 21 1
11/4/02 LV 28 1 27 72 55 17 1
11/3/02 LV 27 1 26 72 56 17 1
11/2/02 LV 29 1 28 71 54 17 *
9/26/02 31 2 28 69 50 19 *
7/15/02 39 3 36 61 44 17 1
2/21/02 30 1 29 69 51 18 *
1/27/02 31 1 29 69 50 19 *
9/20/01 38 3 35 60 47 14 2
9/9/01 33 1 32 66 47 19 *
7/30/01 50 3 46 50 39 12 *
4/22/01 50 3 47 50 40 9 *
1/15/01 70 10 59 29 24 6 1
10/27/00 LV 86 24 61 14 11 3 *
10/26/00 LV 86 24 61 14 11 3 *
6/11/00 74 17 57 26 19 6 *
2/27/00 80 25 55 20 14 5 *
10/31/99 74 18 56 26 18 7 1
9/2/99 76 19 57 23 16 6 1
3/14/99 80 22 58 19 15 4 1
11/1/98 73 12 61 26 21 5 1
11/1/98 LV 78 13 65 22 19 3 *
10/13/97 61 12 49 39 27 11 *
27. Would you say most Americans are better off financially than they were in 2001 when Bush became president, not as well off, or in about the same shape as then financially? Better Not as The No
off well off same opinion
8/29/04 RV 14 46 39 1
8/1/04 RV 18 47 34 1
7/25/04 15 41 43 1
6/20/04 17 45 37 1
4/18/04 18 43 37 2
3/7/04 17 43 38 1
2/11/04 14 47 38 1
1/18/04 13 42 43 2
12/21/03 17 40 41 2
10/29/03 9 49 41 1
9/13/03 9 52 38 1
4/30/03 10 48 42 1 George H. W. Bush
8/9/92 6 61 31 1
10/21/91 7 48 41 4
3/4/91 7 35 56 2
1/16/89 33 26 38 3 28. Do you think the United States is winning or losing the war on terrorism? Neither/It's No
Winning Losing a draw (vol.) opinion
8/29/04 RV 54 31 12 4
7/25/04 51 34 10 5
4/18/04 54 30 13 3
3/7/04 56 27 14 3
10/6/02 47 24 21 9 29. In light of the situation in the world today, do you think there's a particularly high risk in changing presidents at this time, or no more risk than usual? High No more risk No risk No
risk than usual (vol.) opinion
8/29/04 RV 36 61 2 1 30. Compared to before September 11, 2001, do you think the country today is safer from terrorism or less safe from terrorism? IF SAFER: Would you say the country is much safer or somewhat safer? ---------Safer--------- Less No diff. No
NET Much Somewhat safe (vol.) opin.
8/29/04 RV 60 24 36 31 7 2
1/18/04 67 28 39 24 8 1
9/7/03 67 24 42 27 4 2 31. How much credit do you think Bush should get for the fact that there has not been another terrorist attack in the United States since September 11th, 2001.- a great deal of credit, a good amount, just some or hardly any? Great deal/ -----Some/Hardly any/None-----
---Good amount--- None No
NET Great Good NET Some Hardly any (vol.) op.
8/29/04 RV 51 21 30 48 24 21 3 1 32. Has Bush turned out to be a better president than you expected, a worse president, or what you expected? About what No
Better Worse you expected opinion
8/29/04 RV 27 25 47 1
8/9/92* 11 46 40 3
*George H.W. Bush 33. Overall do you think Bush has done more to (unite the country), or has done more to (divide the country)? Unite Divide No opin.
8/29/04 RV 47 48 5
4/18/04 50 48 2
3/7/04 48 49 3
12/21/03 58 36 6 34. Do you think it should be legal or illegal for homosexual couples to get married? ---------Legal-------- --------Illegal--------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No op.
8/29/04 RV 32 18 14 62 10 52 5
3/7/04 38 24 14 59 11 48 3
2/22/04 39 25 13 55 6 49 6
1/18/04 41 NA NA 55 NA NA 4
9/7/03 37 NA NA 55 NA NA 7 35. (Would you support amending the U.S. Constitution to make it against the law for homosexual couples to get married anywhere in the U.S.), or (should each state make its own laws on homosexual marriage)? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? ---Support amendment-- -------State laws------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No op.
8/29/04 RV 44 39 5 51 16 35 5 Compare to: (Would you support amending the U.S. Constitution to make it illegal for homosexual couples to get married anywhere in the U.S.), or (should each state make its own laws on homosexual marriage)? ---Support amendment-- -------State laws------
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly No op.
3/7/04* 44 39 5 53 18 35 3
2/22/04 46 38 8 45 15 31 9
1/18/04 38 NA NA 58 NA NA 3
*Half sample test, against law/make illegal
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