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Republican Convention Preview

The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll is based on random telephone interviews, conducted between July 26-29, 2000. The national survey was completed with 1,206 adults; the margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

*= less than 0.5 percent

1. How closely are you following the 2000 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?

            Very        Somewhat     Not too     Not closely     No
           closely      closely      closely       at all       opin.
7/29/00      16            35          25            24           *
7/23/00      14            36          25            25           *
6/11/00      13            36          26            25           0
4/2/00       17            36          24            23           0
3/11/00      21            40          21            17           0
2/27/00      24            46          20            10           *
2/6/00       19            48          21            13           0
1/16/00      11            39          26            24           *
12/15/99     12            33          31            24           *
10/31/99     16            45          25            13           *

2. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the 2000 presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

                                                      Don't think
           Certain   Probably   Chances   Less than    will vote     No
           to vote     vote      50/50      50/50       (vol.)      opin.
7/29/00      61         15         9         11           3           *
7/23/00      59         17        10         11           4           *
6/11/00      60         13        11         10           4           *
5/10/00      63         15        10          8           4           1
4/2/00       62         14         9          9           5           *
3/11/00      63         14         9          9           4           *
2/27/00      69         12        10          4           5           *
2/6/00       67         12        10          8           3           *
1/16/00      65         14        10          6           4           *
12/15/99     64         13         8          9           6           1
10/31/99     72         11        10          5           3           *

3. If the election for president in November 2000 were being held today, and the candidates were (Al Gore, the Democrat), and (George W. Bush, the Republican), for whom would you vote?

Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters:

                              Neither    Other    Wouldn't         No
               Gore    Bush    (vol.)    (vol.)    vote (vol.)    opin.
7/29/00         42      53       2         1          1             2
7/23/00         45      48       3         *          1             2
6/11/00         45      49       3         *          1             2
5/10/00         44      49       3         *          1             3
4/2/00          47      46       2         *          2             2
3/11/00         48      45       2         1          2             3
2/27/00         44      50       2         1          1             2
2/6/00          45      50       2         *          2             1
1/16/00         42      52       1         1          2             2
12/15/99        41      55       1         *          2             1
10/31/99        39      55       2         *          1             2
Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters:
                              Neither    Other      Wouldn't       No
               Gore    Bush    (vol.)    (vol.)    vote (vol.)    opin.
7/29/00         43      54       2         1           *            1
Net Leaned Vote, General Population:
                              Neither    Other      Wouldn't       No
               Gore    Bush    (vol.)    (vol.)    vote (vol.)    opin.
7/29/00         40      52       3         1           2            2
7/23/00         44      47       4         *           2            2
6/11/00         44      49       3         *           2            2
5/10/00         43      49       3         *           2            3
4/2/00          45      47       3         *           2            2
3/11/00         48      45       2         1           3            2
2/27/00         44      50       2         1           2            2
2/6/00          45      49       3         *           2            1
1/16/00         41      51       2         *           3            2
12/15/99        39      55       2         *           3            1
10/31/99        39      55       2         *           2            2
9/2/99          37      56       3         *           3            2
8/22/99         37      49       5         2           3            3
6/6/99          40      53       3         1           1            3
3/14/99         41      54       1         *           2            2
Unleaned, General Population:
                              Neither    Wouldn't       No
               Gore    Bush    (vol.)    vote (vol.)   opin.
10/25/98        34      45       7           1          13
8/21/98         41      43       6           2           7
1/19/98         40      45       5           2           7
9/23/97         35      40      12           4           9

4. How about if the candidates were (Al Gore, the Democrat), (George W. Bush, the Republican), (Pat Buchanan, the Reform Party candidate) and (Ralph Nader, the Green Party candidate), for whom would you vote?

Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters:

                                          None    Other   Wouldn't    No
         Gore   Bush   Buchanan   Nader  (vol.)   (vol.)  vote (vol.) op.
7/29/00   37     49       4         7      1        1        1         1
7/23/00   39     44       6         7      1        *        1         1
6/11/00   41     47       4         4      2        *        1         2
5/10/00   39     45       5         5      2        0        1         3
Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters:
                                          None    Other   Wouldn't    No
         Gore   Bush   Buchanan   Nader  (vol.)   (vol.)  vote (vol.) op.
7/29/00   37     52       2         7      1        1        *         1
Net Leaned Vote, General Population:
                                          None    Other   Wouldn't     No
         Gore   Bush   Buchanan   Nader  (vol.)   (vol.)  vote (vol.)  op.
7/29/00   35     48       4         7      1        1        2          2
7/23/00   38     43       6         7      2        *        1          2
6/11/00   42     44       4         3      2        *        2          2
5/10/00   38     44       5         5      2        *        3          3

6. As you may know, Bush has selected Dick Cheney as his vice presidential running mate. Do you approve or disapprove of Bush's choice of Cheney as his vice presidential running mate?

             Approve    Disapprove    No opinion
7/29/00        61          15             24
Compare to:

Dole's choice of Kemp

             Approve    Disapprove    No opinion
8/15/96*       67          14              19
8/14/96        68          13              19
8/13/96        66          15              19
8/12/91        64          15              20
8/11/96        63          14              23
8/10/96        56          15              29
* All based on registered voters
Perot's choice of Choate
             Approve    Disapprove    No opinion
9/10/96*       31          19              49
* All based on registered voters

7. Will Bush's choice of Cheney make you more likely to vote for Bush, less likely, or won't it make any difference in your vote?

              More    Less    No difference    No opinion
7/29/00        13      7           77               3

Compare to:

Dole's choice of Kemp

              More    Less    No difference    No opinion
8/15/96*       18       6           75              1
8/14/96        20       7           71              1
8/13/96        21       7           70              3
8/12/96        17       6           74              3
8/11/96        16       5           76              3
8/10/96        14       7           75              4
* All based on registered voters

Perot's choice of Choate

              More    Less    No difference    No opinion
9/10/96*        4       7           86              4
* All based on registered voters

Bush's choice of Quayle

                                               Not voting      No
              More    Less    No difference     for Bush     opinion
9/19/88*        7      19          68              4            2
8/18/88**      11      14          67              5            3
8/17/88**      13      10          72              2            3
* based on registered voters
** based on general population

Dukakis' choice of Bentsen

                                               Not voting      No
              More    Less    No difference    for Dukakis   opinion
9/19/88*       20       6          71              2            1
7/17/88**      13       8          73              2            4
* based on registered voters
** based on general population

8. Do you think Cheney's views on most issues are too liberal for you, too conservative for you, or just about right?

            Too         Too        About      No
          liberal   conservative   right    opinion
7/29/00      7           18         45        31
Compare to:
Do you think (Gore's/Bush's) views on most issues are too liberal for you, too conservative for you, or just about right?
            Too         Too        About      No
          liberal   conservative   right    opinion
Gore:
7/23/00     36           11         47         7
3/11/00     30            9         53         7
2/27/00     35           10         49         7
2/24/00     36           11         43         9
2/6/00      36           11         46         7
9/2/99      35           12         46         7
3/14/99     31           10         44        15

Bush:
7/23/00     12           28         52         8 
3/11/00     12           28         52         8
2/27/00     10           33         51         5
2/24/00     12           33         43        12
2/6/00      12           30         49         8
9/2/99      10           20         58        13
3/14/99      7           20         53        20

9. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Cheney, or perhaps you don't know enough to say?

             Favorable   Unfavorable    No opinion 
7/29/00         29           10             60
10. I'm going to mention a few things about Cheney. For each one please tell me if it makes you feel more favorable or less favorable toward him. Is that much more/less favorable or somewhat more/less favorable?
7/29/00:
                                --More Favorable---   --Less Favorable---   No
                                NET   Much   Smwht.   NET   Smwht.   Much   op.
A. He served as secretary 
   of defense under former 
   President Bush during 
   the Persian Gulf War         68     32     36      23      15       8     9
B. While a member of Congress 
   he voted against funding 
   for the Headstart 
   pre-school program.          19      8     11      73      40      33     8
C. While a member of Congress 
   he voted against funding for 
   the Older Americans Act, 
   which provides services to 
   the elderly                  16      7      9      77      42      35     7
D. He was a member of Congress 
   for 10 years, representing 
   the state of Wyoming.        60     20     40      23      14       9    17
E. Since 1995, he's been the 
   head of a large oil 
   industry company*            36     12     24      47      22      25    17
F. Since 1995, he's been the 
   head of a large company*     59     22     37      27      16      11    14
*asked of half sample

11. Cheney has had three mild heart attacks and had a heart bypass operation 12 years ago. His doctors say he's fit to serve in office. Are you concerned or not concerned about Cheney's physical fitness to serve as president if that became necessary?

             Concerned    Not Concerned    No opinion
7/29/00         32             66               1 

12. On another subject, do you think that Bush's father, former President Bush, has too much influence in his son's campaign for president, too little influence, or about the right amount?

             Too much    Too little    Right amount    No opinion
7/29/00         26           5             61               8

© Copyright 2000 The Washington Post Company


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