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Washington Post Poll: New Hampshire and the Nation Thursday, December 16, 1999 The two latest Washington Post-ABC News polls are based on telephone interviews with randomly selected adults conducted between December 12 and December 15, 1999. The national survey was completed with 1,006 adults; the margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The New Hampshire survey was completed with 1,371 adults, including 744 likely primary voters. All New Hampshire figures are based on likely voters; the margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. CORRECTION 1/19/00: TNS Intersearch, the research company that conducted telephone interviews for this survey, reports that a programming error resulted in faulty data in the "candidate qualities" section of this Washington Post-ABC News poll as originally released. The errors are large in some cases, but were limited to the national data reported in questions 9 and 13, items B - K. The following is a corrected version of the trend document. * = less than 0.5 percent 3. (National poll only) If the election for president in the year 2000 were being held today, and the candidates were (Al Gore, the Democrat), and (George W. Bush, the Republican, who is the son of the former president), for whom would you vote?
Net Leaned Vote:
Neither Other Wouldn't No
Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin.
12/15/99 39 55 2 * 3 1
10/31/99 39 55 2 * 2 2
9/2/99 37 56 3 * 3 2
8/22/99 37 49 5 2 3 3
6/6/99 40 53 3 1 1 3
3/14/99 41 54 1 * 2 2
Unleaned:
Neither Wouldn't No
Gore Bush (vol.) vote (vol.) opin.
10/25/98 34 45 7 1 13
8/21/98 41 43 6 2 7
1/19/98 40 45 5 2 7
9/23/97 35 40 12 4 9
4. (National poll only) Do you support (Gore/Bush) strongly, or not strongly? -----------Gore---------- -----------Bush-----------
Strngly Not No opin. Strngly Not No opin.
12/15/99 50 46 4 58 39 3
10/31/99* 35 65 * 37 62 1
9/2/99 38 61 1 43 56 1
3/14/99 38 62 * 40 58 2
*10/99 and previous: "strongly or only somewhat"
5. (National poll only) How about if the candidates were (Bill Bradley, the Democrat), and (George W. Bush, the Republican)? Net Leaned Vote:
None Other Wouldn't No
Bradley Bush (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin.
12/15/99 36 56 2 * 3 2
10/31/99 38 54 2 * 3 2
9/2/99 36 57 2 * 2 3
3/14/99 34 58 2 1 2 4
6. (National poll only) How about if the candidates were (Al Gore, the Democrat), and (John McCain, the Republican)? Net Leaned Vote:
None Other Wouldn't No
Gore McCain (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin.
12/15/99 47 44 2 * 4 3
10/31/99 51 38 4 * 4 3
7. (National poll only) How about if the candidates were (Bill Bradley, the Democrat), and (John McCain, the Republican)? Net Leaned Vote:
None Other Wouldn't No
Bradley McCain (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin.
12/15/99 45 43 4 1 4 3
8. Overall, how much do you feel you know about the candidates running for president - a great deal, a good amount, just some or hardly anything?
--Great deal/Good amount-- -Just some/hardly anything- No
NET Great deal Good amt. NET Some hardly anything opin
12/15/99 Nat 35 8 27 64 45 19 *
12/15/99 NH 68 16 52 32 29 2 *
9. Please tell me whether the following statement applies to (Gore/Bush), or not?
National Poll:
12/15/99
-------Bush------- -------Gore------
Yes No No opin. Yes No No op.
A. He's not a typical politician 42 52 6 44 51 5
B. He is honest and trustworthy 63 28 9 58 35 7
C. He understands the problems
of people like you 47 46 7 46 49 6
D. He is a strong leader 67 26 7 43 51 7
E. He has the right kind of
experience to be president 62 32 6 69 27 5
F. He has the kind of personality
and temperament it takes to serve
effectively as president 71 22 7 55 40 5
G. He would bring needed change
to Washington 52 40 8 33 60 7
H. He has the knowledge of world
affairs it takes to serve
effectively as president 54 38 8 68 27 6
I. He's very intelligent 77 16 7 74 21 6
J. He can be trusted in a crisis 62 27 11 53 38 9
K. He has a clear idea of where he
wants to lead the nation 60 32 7 57 36 7
L. He says what he really thinks,
even if it's not politically
popular 57 36 7 43 51 7
New Hampshire Poll:
Among GOP Voters Among Dem. Voters
-------Bush------- -----Gore------
Yes No No op. Yes No No op.
A. He's not a typical politician 40 58 3 34 64 2
B. He is honest and trustworthy 80 13 7 79 18 3
C. He understands the problems
of people like you 59 35 6 65 32 3
D. He is a strong leader 72 21 7 63 33 5
E. He has the right kind of
experience to be president 71 23 5 85 14 1
F. He has the kind of personality
and temperament it takes to serve
effectively as president 78 17 5 75 21 4
G. He would bring needed change
to Washington 57 35 7 40 54 6
H. He has the knowledge of world
affairs it takes to serve
effectively as president 53 36 10 89 9 2
I. He's very intelligent 79 15 6 91 6 2
J. He can be trusted in a crisis 71 15 14 79 16 5
K. He has a clear idea of where he
wants to lead the nation 71 24 5 71 24 5
L. He says what he really thinks,
even if it's not politically
popular 52 42 6 45 49 6
M. He takes the concerns of
New Hampshire voters seriously 63 30 7 77 18 4
National trend (where available): B. He is honest and trustworthy -------Bush-------- -------Gore-------
Yes No No opin. Yes No No opin.
12/15/99 63 28 9 58 35 7
10/31/99 68 22 10 67 28 6
9/2/99 63 23 14 63 27 11
3/14/99 67 12 22 63 24 13
C. He understands the problems of people like you -------Bush-------- -------Gore-------
Yes No No opin. Yes No No opin.
12/15/99 47 46 7 46 49 6
10/31/99 54 39 7 57 38 4
9/2/99 50 39 11 47 45 8
6/13/99 NA NA NA 44 44 12
3/14/99 52 27 21 48 41 11
D. He is a strong leader -------Bush-------- -------Gore-------
Yes No No opin. Yes No No opin.
12/15/99 67 26 7 43 51 7
10/31/99 77 18 5 47 47 6
9/2/99 70 18 12 38 52 10
6/13/99 NA NA NA 39 51 9
3/14/99 68 13 20 41 47 12
E. He has the right kind of experience to be president -------Bush-------- -------Gore-------
Yes No No opin. Yes No No opin.
12/15/99 62 32 6 69 27 5
10/31/99 66 28 6 70 27 3
9/2/99 61 30 9 69 27 4
F. He has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president -------Bush-------- -------Gore-------
Yes No No opin. Yes No No opin.
12/15/99 71 22 7 55 40 5
10/31/99 72 22 6 53 40 7
9/2/99 67 21 12 52 40 8
G. He would bring needed change to Washington -------Bush-------- -------Gore-------
Yes No No opin. Yes No No opin.
12/15/99 52 40 8 33 60 7
10/31/99 61 32 7 36 57 7
9/2/99 56 32 12 34 56 11
H. He has the knowledge of world affairs it takes to serve effectively as president -------Bush-------- -------Gore-------
Yes No No opin. Yes No No opin.
12/15/99 54 38 8 68 27 6
11/14/99 59 36 6 NA NA NA
J. He can be trusted in a crisis -------Bush-------- -------Gore-------
Yes No No opin. Yes No No opin.
12/15/99 62 27 11 53 38 9
9/2/99 58 22 19 55 33 12
10. What's the single most important issue to you in deciding whom to support for president - education, the economy, taxes, Social Security and Medicare, campaign finance reform, world affairs, health care, or what? [I'll repeat the list...]
12/15/99 Nat 12/15/99 NH Education 19 17 The economy 19 12 Taxes 12 11 Social Security and Medicare 20 18 Campaign finance reform 1 7 International affairs 6 9 Health care 15 19 Other 7 8 No opinion 1 1 11. As you may know, federal law limits the amount of money people can contribute to any presidential candidate's campaign, but people can give as much money as they want to any political party. Do you think the amount of money people can contribute to political parties should be limited, or unlimited? Limited Unlimited No opin. 12/15/99 Nat 68 30 1 12/15/99 NH 76 22 2 National trend: 10/17/99 63 33 4 12. Which one of these candidates do you trust most to handle the issue of campaign finance reform: (George W. Bush), (John McCain), (Bill Bradley), or (Al Gore)? Bush McCain Bradley Gore None (vol.) No opin 12/15/99 Nat 34 19 14 24 5 4 12/15/99 NH 18 43 20 11 5 4 13. (McCain asked for half sample, Bradley among other half) Please tell me whether the following statement applies to (McCain/Bradley), or not? National Poll:
12/15/99
------McCain------ ------Bradley-----
Yes No No op. Yes No No op.
A. He's not a typical politician 40 38 21 35 45 20
B. He is honest and trustworthy 56 24 20 60 20 20
C. He understands the problems
of people like you 38 43 19 44 37 20
D. He is a strong leader 49 29 21 49 30 21
E. He has the right kind of
experience to be president 40 38 22 39 41 20
F. He has the kind of personality
and temperament it takes to serve
effectively as president 47 31 22 56 25 19
G. He would bring needed change
to Washington 41 38 21 43 38 19
H. He has the knowledge of world
affairs it takes to serve
effectively as president 44 36 20 45 34 21
I. He's very intelligent 64 16 20 72 11 18
J. He can be trusted in a crisis 51 28 21 51 26 23
K. He has a clear idea of where he
wants to lead the nation 50 30 21 52 30 18
L. He says what he really thinks,
even if it's not politically
popular 52 29 19 46 33 21
New Hampshire Poll:
Among GOP Voters Among Dem. Voters
------McCain------- ------Bradley-----
Yes No No opin. Yes No No opin.
A. He's not a typical politician 56 41 4 54 42 4
B. He is honest and trustworthy 91 4 5 87 7 6
C. He understands the problems
of people like you 74 19 7 79 16 6
D. He is a strong leader 78 15 7 71 18 11
E. He has the right kind of
experience to be president 72 20 8 66 24 9
F. He has the kind of personality
and temperament it takes to serve
effectively as president 77 14 9 81 12 8
G. He would bring needed change
to Washington 77 18 5 68 24 7
H. He has the knowledge of world
affairs it takes to serve
effectively as president 79 11 9 63 25 12
I. He's very intelligent 90 4 6 90 6 5
J. He can be trusted in a crisis 84 7 9 77 12 11
K. He has a clear idea of where he
wants to lead the nation 85 11 4 78 16 6
L. He says what he really thinks,
even if it's not politically
popular 85 11 4 76 17 7
M. He takes the concerns of
New Hampshire voters seriously 83 10 7 86 9 5
16. Do you think George W. Bush would be able to keep the federal budget balanced and cut income taxes at the same time, or not? Yes No No opinion 12/15/99 Nat 38 55 7 12/15/99 NH 36 59 6
Compare To: Yes No No opin. 10/17/96 Reg. 25 67 8 10/16/96 Reg. 23 69 8 10/15/96 Reg. 22 70 8 10/14/96 Reg. 23 69 8 10/13/96 Reg. 24 67 8 9/29/96 Reg. 27 63 10 9/22/96 Reg. 26 67 7 8/29/96 Reg. 24 69 7 8/28/96 Reg. 24 68 8 8/27/96 Reg. 23 69 7 8/26/96 Reg. 23 70 6 8/25/96 Reg. 26 67 7 8/24/96 Reg. 25 67 8 8/19/96 Reg. 25 68 7 8/18/96 Reg. 26 66 8 8/15/96 Reg. 26 68 6 8/14/96 Reg. 26 68 5 8/9/96 Reg. 22 70 8 8/6/96 23 75 2 17. Are you better off or worse off financially now than you were four years ago? Better Worse Same (vol.) No opinion 12/15/99 Nat 61 20 19 * 12/15/99 NH 64 14 22 1 National trend: 8/27/97 52 27 21 1 6/8/97 53 26 20 1 1/15/97 52 26 20 1 10/13/96 Reg. 50 25 25 1 10/8/96 Like. 48 25 26 1 10/8/96 Reg. 48 26 25 1 9/4/96* Reg. 50 26 23 1 8/5/96* 47 29 23 1 3/17/96** 50 31 19 * 7/17/95** 48 31 20 1 *"three and a half years ago" **"three years ago" 18. Just your opinion, do you think voters in New Hampshire have too much influence in determining who wins the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations, too little influence or about the right amount? Too much Too little About the No
influence influence right amount opinion
12/15/99 Nat 35 5 49 10
12/15/99 NH 11 9 78 3
19. (Asked of leaned Republicans nationally and Republican primary voters) Suppose your state holds a Republican primary or caucus for president in 2000 and the candidates are: (READ LIST). For whom would you vote - I'll read the list again:
Net Leaned Vote:
None/
Other Wouldn't No
Bush Forbes McCain Bauer Keyes Hatch (vol.) (vol.) opin
12/15/99 Nat 72 7 13 1 3 2 0 1 *
12/15/99 NH 39 10 40 1 5 * * * 3
National trend:
10/31/99 75 4 10 3 5 2 0 1 1
9/2/99** 60 6 5 2 3 1 * 2 2
8/8/99*** 54 4 4 1 2 1 * 4 7
3/4/99**** 52 4 2 1 2 NA * * 2
**Dole=15, Quayle=3, Buchanan=3
***Dole=14, Quayle=3, Buchanan=3, Alexander < 0.5%
****Dole=25, Quayle=6, Buchanan=3, Kasich=2, Alexander=1, Smith < 0.5%
20. Do you support (Republican candidate) strongly, or not strongly? National:
Strongly Not strongly No opinion
George W. Bush 72 27 1
New Hampshire:
Strongly Not strongly No opinion
George W. Bush 68 30 2
John McCain 74 22 3
[*insufficient N for other candidates]
21. (Asked of leaned Democrats nationally and Democratic primary voters in Hew Hampshire) Suppose your state holds a Democratic primary or caucus for president in 2000 and the candidates are Al Gore and Bill Bradley. For whom would you vote? Net Leaned Vote:
Other Neither/ No
Gore Bradley (vol.) Wouldn't (vol.) opin.
12/15/99 Nat 64 31 0 2 3
12/15/99 NH 45 48 * 3 4
National Trend:
10/31/99 67 29 * 1 3
9/2/99 69 24 * 3 4
8/15/99* 61 24 1 2 3
6/13/99 65 26 * 4 5
6/6/99** 56 19 0 2 4
3/14/99*** 58 21 * 2 2
*Beatty=9
**Jackson=19
***Jackson=17
22. Do you support (Democratic candidate) strongly, or not strongly
----------Gore------------ ----------Bradley----------
Strongly Not No opin. Strongly Not No opin.
12/15/99 Nat 62 36 3 37 60 3
12/15/99 NH 68 31 1 64 34 2
23. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Bill Clinton as a person? Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 12/15/99 Nat 36 62 2 12/15/99 NH 21 77 2 National trend: 9/2/99 38 59 3 3/14/99 30 67 4 3/4/99 40 54 6 12/15/98** 41 56 3 11/1/98 42 54 4 11/1/98 LV 37 60 3 *Strongly/somewhat follow up asked 12/15/98 24. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Bill Clinton's policies and programs? Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 12/15/99 Nat 61 37 2 12/15/99 NH 54 43 325. As you may have heard, Bill Bradley has a medical condition that requires him to take medication for an occasional irregular heartbeat. Does this make you concerned about Bradley's physical fitness to serve as president, or do you think his condition is not that serious? Concerned about fitness Condition not No
to serve as president that serious opinion
12/15/99 Nat 21 75 4
12/15/99 NH 11 87 2
© Copyright 1999 The Washington Post Company
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