Who Are the Values Voters?
An analysis of results from the Washington Post/Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard University Moral Values Survey
By Robert J. Blendon, a professor at Harvard's School of Public Health and John F. Kennedy School of Government; and John Benson, deputy director of the Harvard Opinion Research Program at the School of Public Health.
1. The moral-values issue has become important politically because an overwhelming majority (88%) of those who vote based on that issue are dissatisfied with moral values in this country, and most (74%) see government policies are being part of the problem. A majority (62%) of moral-values voters see religion as being part of the cure.
(Table 1)
2. Moral-values voters (17% of registered voters) are disproportionately Republican (53%), conservative (61%), born-again (54%), and highly religious (64% say that religion is either the most important thing in their lives or extremely important).
(Table 2)
3. Moral-values voters differ on a large number of issues from registered voters who do not vote based primarily on moral values. The issues that most set moral-values voters apart from other registered voters tend to involve elements of religious belief and threats to the traditional family. The four issues where moral-values voters differ most (in each case, by more than 20 percentage points) are school vouchers, the circumstances under which abortion should be legal, expanding women's access to early abortion options like RU-486, and physician-assisted suicide.
(Table 3)
4. Majorities of moral-values voters identify four issues that they both think of as moral issues and also say would be among the most important in deciding their vote: the example a president sets by his personal behavior (75%); abortion (58%); the break-up of the family (57%); and sex and violence in the media (53%).
None of these four issues are considered by a majority of non-moral values voters to be important moral issues in deciding their vote. Expanding health insurance coverage to all Americans (56%) is the top moral issue for non-moral values voters.
Campaign finance reform is not considered a top moral voting issue by either moral-values or non-moral values voters in this election. In addition, concerns about income inequality, the fairness of the current tax system, and the death penalty are not seen by a majority of either voting group as important moral issues in their election choices.
(Table 4)
5. Looking at presidential trial heat results among all registered voters masks important differences. Gore and Bush are virtually tied among all registered voters. However, among those who say that moral values will be one of two most important issues in the presidential vote, Bush leads by more than 50 percentage points. Among registered voters who do not say moral values is one of the top two issues, Gore leads by 15 points.
The same pattern holds true when registered voters are asked which candidate and which party would be better at improving the nation's moral values. The two candidates and the two parties are basically tied among all registered voters, while Bush and the Republicans have a huge lead among moral-values voters; Gore and the Democrats have a substantial lead among non-moral values voters.
Similarly, moral-values voters give Bush and the Republicans a very large lead as the candidate or party more sympathetic to religion and religious people. Gore and the Democrats lead on this measure among non-moral values voters.
(Table 5)
6. Gore moral-values voters and Bush moral-values voters have quite different attitudes on a number of issues. The largest gaps (all more than 20 percentage points) are on: hate crimes legislation for gays and lesbians, the circumstances under which abortion should be legal, school vouchers, the death penalty, and expanding women's access to early abortion options like RU-486. On two of these issues--hate crimes legislation for gays and lesbians, and access to early abortion options such as RU-486--a majority of Bush moral-values voters take a position not held by a majority of Gore moral-values voters.
Majorities of both Gore and Bush moral-values voters agree that the federal government should be involved in promoting moral values and regulating sex and violence in the media. (Table 6)
7. Majorities of Bush moral-values voters identify four issues that they both think of as moral issues and also say would be among the most important in deciding their vote: the example a president sets by his personal behavior (84%); abortion (61%); the break-up of the family (60%); and sex and violence in the media (54%).
None of these four issues are considered by a majority of Gore moral-values voters to be important moral issues in deciding their vote. Expanding health insurance coverage to all Americans (64%) is the top moral issue for Gore moral-values voters.
About half (49%) of Gore moral-values voters say that the example a president sets by his behavior is an important moral issue in deciding their vote. Once again, campaign finance is not considered an important moral voting issue by either Gore or Bush moral-values voters.
(Table 7)
Table 1
Why Moral Values?
Moral-values voters vs. other registered voters
Total Moral- Not
reg. values moral
voters voters values
Dissatisfied with moral values
in this country (Q6b) 68% 88% 64%
Government policies have
weakened Americans' moral
values (Q31) 48% 74% 43%
In order to improve values
and morality in this
country, we must put more
emphasis on religion (Q48) 45% 62% 42%
Source: Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard, September 2000
Table 2
Key Demographics of Moral-Values Voters
%s read down % of each
group who
Total Moral- Not are moral-
reg. values moral values
voters voters values voters
TOTAL REG. VOTERS 17%
By unleaned party:
Rep 30% 53% 26% 30%
Dem 38% 18% 42% 8%
Ind 23% 20% 23% 15%
By leaned party:
Rep 41% 67% 35% 29%
Dem 47% 21% 52% 8%
By ideology:
Lib 19% 9% 21% 8%
Mod 46% 29% 49% 11%
Cons 33% 61% 27% 32%
By born-again:
Born-again 36% 54% 33% 26%
By importance of
religion in your
own life:
Most/extremely
important 44% 64% 40% 25%
Very important 25% 20% 27% 13%
Somewhat/not too
important 30% 17% 33% 10%
By gender:
Men 48% 47% 48% 17%
Women 52% 53% 52% 17%
By age:
18-29 15% 14% 15% 17%
30-49 44% 47% 43% 19%
50-64 22% 21% 23% 17%
65+ 19% 18% 20% 16%
By region:
Northeast 19% 17% 20% 15%
North Central 23% 26% 22% 20%
South 38% 39% 37% 18%
West 20% 18% 21% 15%
Source: Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard, September 2000
Table 3
Attitudes on Policy Issues
Moral-values voters vs. other registered voters
Total Moral- Not
reg. values moral
voters voters values
Statistically significant differences,
rank-ordered by percentage point
difference
Favor school vouchers (Q19) 49% 69% 45%
Abortion should not be legal
or should be legal only in
cases of rape, incest, or
to save mother's life (Q21) 57% 77% 54%
Oppose expanding women's access
to early abortion options
like RU-486 (Q23) 43% 62% 39%
Oppose physician-assisted
suicide (Q17) 45% 62% 41%
Oppose federal law imposing
additional penalties on
people who commit crimes
out of prejudice toward
gays and lesbians (Q25) 40% 55% 37%
Federal government should
be involved in promoting
moral values (Q12) 59% 72% 56%
Federal government should
regulate sex and violence
in media (Q14) 46% 59% 43%
Allow prayer in public
schools (Q20) 73% 84% 71%
Cut off welfare after 5 years
if willing to work but can't
find job (Q15) 57% 64% 56%
Base hiring, promotion, and
admissions strictly on merit
and qualifications other than
race (Q16) 86% 92% 85%
Favor death penalty for
murder (Q18) 66% 71% 65%
Not significant difference
Limit money people can give
to candidates (Q13) 61% 58% 62%
Source: Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard, September 2000
Table 4
What Issues Registered Voters Consider as Moral Issues
and Which Would Be One of the Most Important
Issues in the Vote
Moral-values voters vs. other registered voters
Total Moral- Not
reg. values moral
voters voters values
Expanding health care coverage
to all Americans 53% (1) 34% (5) 56% (1)
The example a president sets
by his personal behavior 46% (2) 75% (1) 41% (3)
Protecting the environment 42% (3) 25% (8t) 45% (2)
Abortion 37% (4) 58% (2) 33% (6t)
Sex and violence in the media 36% (5) 53% (4) 33% (6t)
Gun control 35% (6t) 25% (8t) 37% (4)
Inequality between whites
and minorities 35% (6t) 32% (6) 36% (5)
Break-up of the family 33% (8) 57% (3) 28% (9t)
Taxes and the tax system 32% (9) 27% (7) 33% (6t)
Differences in income 26% (10) 14% (12) 28% (9t)
Death penalty 23% (11) 20% (10) 24% (11t)
Campaign finance reform 22% (12) 16% (11) 24% (11t)
Source: Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard, September 2000
Table 5
The Presidential Campaign
Moral-values voters vs. other registered voters
Total Moral- Not
reg. values moral
voters voters values
Presidential vote (unleaned)
Gore 43% 16% 49%
Bush 40% 68% 34%
Nader 3% 2% 3%
Buchanan 1% 2% 1%
Presidential vote (leaned)
Gore 47% 19% 53%
Bush 43% 72% 37%
Nader 3% 2% 4%
Buchanan 1% 2% 1%
Candidate better at improving
the nation's moral values:
Gore 42% 17% 47%
Bush 43% 71% 37%
Ticket better at improving
the nation's moral values:
Gore/Lieberman 49% 23% 54%
Bush/Cheney 39% 68% 34%
Party better at improving
the nation's moral values:
Democrats 38% 17% 43%
Republicans 39% 66% 34%
Candidate more sympathetic
to religion and religious
people:
Gore 43% 20% 48%
Bush 36% 63% 31%
Party more sympathetic
to religion and religious
people:
Democrats 41% 18% 46%
Republicans 36% 62% 31%
Source: Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard, September 2000
Table 6
Attitudes on Policy Issues
Gore and Bush moral-values voters
Gore Bush
Total moral- moral-
reg. values values
voters voters voters
Statistically significant differences,
rank-ordered by percentage point
difference
Oppose federal law imposing
additional penalties on
people who commit crimes
out of prejudice toward
gays and lesbians (Q25) 40% 31% 62%
Abortion should not be legal
or should be legal only in
cases of rape, incest, or
to save mother's life (Q21) 57% 56% 83%
Favor school vouchers (Q19) 49% 52% 74%
Favor death penalty for
murder (Q18) 66% 55% 77%
Oppose expanding women's access
to early abortion options
like RU-486 (Q23) 43% 46% 67%
Base hiring, promotion, and
admissions strictly on merit
and qualifications other than
race (Q16) 86% 76% 96%
Oppose physician-assisted
suicide (Q17) 45% 52% 66%
Cut off welfare after 5 years
if willing to work but can't
find job (Q15) 57% 54% 68%
Allow prayer in public
schools (Q20) 73% 76% 86%
-cont.-
Table 6 (cont.)
Attitudes on Policy Issues
Gore and Bush moral-values voters
Gore Bush
Total moral- moral-
reg. values values
voters voters voters
Not significant difference
Federal government should
be involved in promoting
moral values (Q12) 59% 75% 72%
Federal government should
regulate sex and violence
in media (Q14) 46% 59% 60%
Limit money people can give
to candidates (Q13) 61% 58% 58%
Source: Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard, September 2000
Table 7
What Issues Registered Voters Consider as Moral Issues
and Which Would Be One of the Most Important
Issues in the Vote
Gore and Bush moral-values voters
Gore Bush
Total moral- moral-
reg. values values
voters voters voters
Expanding health care coverage
to all Americans 53% (1) 64% (1) 26% (5t)
The example a president sets
by his personal behavior 46% (2) 49% (2) 84% (1)
Protecting the environment 42% (3) 47% (4t) 18% (10)
Abortion 37% (4) 47% (4t) 61% (2)
Sex and violence in the media 36% (5) 48% (3) 54% (4)
Gun control 35% (6t) 45% (8) 20% (8)
Inequality between whites
and minorities 35% (6t) 47% (4t) 26% (5t)
Break-up of the family 33% (8) 47% (4t) 60% (3)
Taxes and the tax system 32% (9) 31% (9) 26% (5t)
Differences in income 26% (10) 27% (10) 10% (12)
Death penalty 23% (11) 21% (11t) 19% (9)
Campaign finance reform 22% (12) 21% (11t) 12% (11)
Source: Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard, September 2000
|
