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California Recall Election Exit Poll - October 7, 2003
Final Data: Replacement Ballot - Horizontal Percentages
Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International


Results presented here are from an exit poll based on interviews with 3,814 randomly selected voters leaving polling places across California today, as well a sample of 400 absentee voters interviewed by phone prior to the election. The exit poll was conducted by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for The Washington Post and other news organizations. Exit poll data are based on voter samples and do not necessarily reflect final vote tallies. Election results are available here.

Total vote percentage is presented in a vertical column; all other data are presented horizontally.




Total Governor Vote
Cruz M. Bustamante Arnold Schwarzenegger Tom McClintock Peter Miguel Camejo Arianna Huffington Someone Else
Sex Male 48% 32% 49% 11% 4% 1% 3%
Female 52% 36% 43% 14% 4% 1% 3%
Sex by Race White Male 33% 27% 55% 12% 3% 0% 2%
White Female 37% 30% 48% 15% 4% 1% 3%
Non-White Male 15% 47% 34% 9% 5% 3% 3%
Non-White Female 15% 54% 28% 10% 4% 1% 3%
Race White 70% 28% 52% 13% 3% 1% 3%
Black 6% 64% 17% 6% 6% 4% 4%
Hispanic 18% 52% 31% 9% 5% 1% 2%
Asian 3% * * * * * *
Other 4% 37% 37% 18% 2% 0% 6%
Age (4 Categories) 18-29 13% 35% 43% 10% 9% 1% 3%
30-44 30% 31% 49% 14% 3% 1% 3%
45-64 40% 36% 45% 12% 3% 1% 3%
65+ 17% 36% 46% 12% 2% 1% 3%
Age (Age-65 & Over) 18-64 83% 34% 46% 13% 4% 1% 3%
65+ 17% 36% 46% 12% 2% 1% 3%
Age (Age-60) 18-29 13% 35% 43% 10% 9% 1% 3%
30-44 30% 31% 49% 14% 3% 1% 3%
45-59 31% 37% 45% 12% 3% 1% 3%
60+ 25% 36% 46% 12% 3% 1% 3%
Age (Age-65) 18-24 7% 28% 46% 11% 9% 1% 4%
25-29 6% 41% 39% 8% 9% 0% 3%
30-39 18% 34% 46% 14% 3% 1% 2%
40-49 24% 31% 49% 14% 3% 1% 3%
50-64 28% 37% 46% 12% 3% 1% 3%
65+ 17% 36% 46% 12% 2% 1% 3%
Age (Age 4 categories) by Men Men 18-29 15% 34% 44% 9% 8% 1% 4%
Men 30-44 29% 26% 55% 13% 3% 1% 2%
Men 45-64 41% 35% 48% 10% 3% 1% 2%
Men 65+ 15% 34% 49% 11% 2% 1% 3%
Age (Age 4 categories) by Women Women 18-29 11% 35% 41% 10% 10% 0% 3%
Women 30-44 32% 34% 44% 15% 3% 1% 3%
Women 45-64 39% 37% 42% 14% 3% 0% 3%
Women 65+ 18% 38% 44% 13% 2% 1% 3%
Education Did not complete high school 3% * * * * * *
High school grad 13% 33% 50% 12% 2% 1% 3%
Some college/associate degree 33% 30% 48% 14% 4% 1% 3%
College grad 28% 32% 49% 13% 3% 1% 3%
Postgraduate study 23% 44% 38% 10% 5% 1% 2%
Education Non-college grad 49% 32% 48% 13% 3% 1% 3%
College grad or greater 51% 37% 44% 12% 4% 1% 3%
Education High school or less 16% 36% 47% 11% 2% 2% 3%
Some college/Associate degree 33% 30% 48% 14% 4% 1% 3%
College grad or greater 51% 37% 44% 12% 4% 1% 3%
2002 Total Family Income Under $15,000 5% 40% 41% 6% 9% 0% 4%
$15,000-$29,999 10% 45% 35% 11% 4% 1% 4%
$30,000-$49,999 17% 41% 40% 12% 4% 0% 3%
$50,000-$74,999 26% 33% 46% 13% 4% 1% 2%
$75,000-$99,999 18% 28% 53% 14% 3% 1% 1%
$100,000 or more 24% 31% 50% 13% 2% 1% 3%
No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a...? Democrat 38% 68% 18% 6% 4% 1% 3%
Republican 39% 6% 74% 17% 1% 0% 1%
Independent 16% 28% 44% 15% 6% 2% 5%
Something else 7% 26% 41% 10% 13% 1% 9%
Party ID (Collapsed) Democrat 38% 68% 18% 6% 4% 1% 3%
Republican 39% 6% 74% 17% 1% 0% 1%
Independent or something else 23% 28% 43% 13% 8% 2% 6%
Party Affiliation Male Democrat 16% 72% 17% 6% 3% 0% 2%
Male Republican 20% 5% 78% 15% 1% 1% 1%
Male Independent/Else 12% 26% 45% 11% 9% 2% 6%
Female Democrat 22% 64% 20% 7% 5% 1% 4%
Female Republican 19% 7% 71% 20% 0% 0% 1%
Female Independent/Else 11% 29% 41% 16% 7% 1% 5%
On most political matters, do you consider yourself...? Very liberal 11% 71% 12% 3% 11% 1% 3%
Somewhat liberal 20% 58% 24% 7% 6% 1% 4%
Moderate 36% 31% 50% 12% 3% 1% 4%
Somewhat conservative 19% 12% 68% 17% 0% 1% 1%
Very conservative 14% 10% 65% 23% 1% 0% 1%
Political Ideology Liberal 32% 63% 20% 6% 8% 1% 3%
Moderate 36% 31% 50% 12% 3% 1% 4%
Conservative 33% 11% 67% 20% 1% 1% 1%
Party by Political Ideology Liberal Democrats 27% 74% 13% 5% 5% 1% 2%
Moderate/Conservative Democrats 23% 60% 25% 9% 3% 1% 3%
Liberal/Moderate Republicans 18% 9% 74% 13% 1% 0% 2%
Conservative Republicans 32% 5% 75% 19% 1% 0% 0%
Political Ideology by Sex Male liberal 13% 66% 19% 5% 7% 1% 2%
Male moderate 17% 33% 51% 8% 4% 1% 4%
Male conservative 18% 7% 72% 18% 1% 1% 1%
Female liberal 18% 61% 21% 6% 8% 1% 4%
Female moderate 19% 29% 49% 15% 3% 1% 4%
Female conservative 15% 16% 61% 21% 0% 0% 1%
Do you or does someone in your household belong to a labor union? I do 17% 44% 38% 11% 5% 0% 2%
Yes, someone else does 13% 37% 42% 14% 2% 2% 3%
Yes, I do and someone else does 3% * * * * * *
No one does 68% 31% 50% 13% 3% 1% 3%
Union Household Union Household 32% 41% 39% 12% 4% 1% 2%
Non-union Household 68% 31% 50% 13% 3% 1% 3%
Union Member Voter is a union member 20% 44% 37% 11% 5% 0% 2%
Someone in household is union member 13% 37% 42% 14% 2% 2% 3%
No union member in household 68% 31% 50% 13% 3% 1% 3%
Are you gay, lesbian or bisexual? Yes 4% 51% 32% 4% 9% 0% 3%
No 96% 34% 47% 13% 3% 1% 3%
How often have you voted in previous elections? Always 73% 34% 46% 12% 3% 1% 3%
Usually 22% 36% 42% 14% 4% 1% 3%
Rarely 3% * * * * * *
Never 3% * * * * * *
Frequency of past voting Always/Usually vote 94% 35% 45% 13% 4% 1% 3%
Rarely/Never vote 6% 30% 53% 8% 6% 1% 2%
Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Approve 51% 9% 72% 17% 1% 0% 1%
Disapprove 46% 63% 17% 7% 7% 1% 5%
No Answer 3% * * * * * *
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Gray Davis is handling his job as governor? Strongly approve 6% 73% 16% 3% 5% 0% 2%
Somewhat approve 20% 79% 6% 5% 5% 1% 4%
Somewhat disapprove 23% 45% 28% 15% 7% 1% 4%
Strongly disapprove 50% 6% 74% 15% 2% 1% 2%
No Answer 1% * * * * * *
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Gray Davis is handling his job as governor? Strongly/Somewhat approve 26% 78% 9% 5% 5% 1% 3%
Strongly/Somewhat disapprove 73% 18% 59% 15% 3% 1% 3%
No Answer 1% * * * * * *
Davis Approval/Recall vote Approve of Davis job 27% 78% 9% 5% 5% 1% 3%
Disapprove of Davis job/NO on recall 19% 59% 13% 12% 10% 1% 5%
Disapprove of Davis job/YES on recall 54% 4% 76% 17% 1% 1% 2%
Is your opinion of Cruz Bustamante...? Favorable 37% 77% 11% 5% 5% 1% 1%
Unfavorable 58% 8% 68% 17% 3% 1% 3%
No Answer 5% 31% 45% 15% 3% 2% 5%
Is your opinion of Tom McClintock...? Favorable 55% 18% 56% 21% 3% 1% 2%
Unfavorable 37% 56% 32% 1% 5% 1% 4%
No Answer 8% 44% 42% 4% 4% 2% 5%
Is your opinion of Arnold Schwarzenegger...? Favorable 51% 4% 83% 10% 1% 1% 1%
Unfavorable 44% 69% 4% 15% 7% 1% 5%
No Answer 4% 33% 37% 20% 4% 2% 4%
When did you finally decide how to vote within today"s election to recall Gray Davis? Today 5% 30% 39% 15% 6% 1% 9%
In the last three days 5% 27% 44% 18% 8% 1% 3%
In the last week 6% 35% 35% 18% 6% 3% 4%
Within the last month 15% 29% 45% 16% 5% 2% 3%
More than a month ago 67% 35% 47% 11% 3% 0% 3%
Did not vote on the recall 2% * * * * * *
No Answer 1% * * * * * *
When did you finally decide how to vote in today's election to recall Gray Davis? In the last three days 9% 29% 41% 16% 7% 1% 6%
Within the last week or earlier 89% 34% 45% 12% 4% 1% 3%
No Answer 1% * * * * * *
When did you finally decide how to vote in today's election to recall Gray Davis? Within the last week 15% 31% 39% 17% 7% 2% 5%
Within the last month or earlier 84% 34% 46% 12% 4% 1% 3%
No Answer 1% * * * * * *
No matter how you voted today, which comes closer to your opinion about the recall process? It was worth the cost 49% 8% 74% 14% 2% 1% 1%
It was a waste of money 48% 62% 16% 11% 6% 1% 5%
No Answer 4% 26% 51% 16% 5% 1% 2%
When voting today, did you experience any problems with the voting equipment or the length of the ballot? Serious problems 2% * * * * * *
Minor problems 7% 43% 35% 11% 7% 2% 3%
No problems 88% 33% 46% 13% 4% 1% 3%
No Answer 3% * * * * * *
When voting today, did you experience any problems with the voting equipment or the length of the ballot? Serious/Minor problems 9% 44% 34% 10% 6% 2% 4%
No problems 88% 33% 46% 13% 4% 1% 3%
No Answer 3% * * * * * *
Voting Equipment Punch Card 36% 36% 45% 11% 4% 1% 4%
DRE/Touch Screen 5% 28% 47% 21% 2% 0% 2%
Optical Scan 34% 33% 45% 13% 5% 1% 3%
Absentee/Early Voters 24% 35% 49% 12% 2% 1% 1%
Voting Method Punch Cards 36% 36% 45% 11% 4% 1% 4%
Other method 64% 34% 47% 13% 3% 1% 2%
Do you think the condition of California's economy is...? Excellent 4% 36% 35% 17% 6% 3% 3%
Good 13% 46% 35% 11% 4% 1% 2%
Not so good 50% 39% 39% 13% 4% 1% 3%
Poor 33% 22% 61% 11% 2% 1% 3%
No Answer 1% * * * * * *
Do you think the condition of California's economy is...? Excellent/Good 16% 44% 35% 12% 5% 2% 2%
Not so good/Poor 83% 32% 48% 13% 4% 1% 3%
No Answer 1% * * * * * *
Will California be able to resolve its budget deficit without raising taxes? Yes 46% 21% 60% 14% 2% 1% 2%
No 47% 47% 32% 11% 5% 1% 4%
No Answer 7% 36% 42% 15% 4% 1% 2%
If these had been the only two candidates for governor on the ballot today, for whom would you have voted? Cruz M. Bustamante 39% 86% 1% 4% 6% 1% 2%
Arnold Schwarzenegger 54% 1% 84% 13% 1% 1% 1%
Would not have voted for governor 7% 10% 5% 49% 13% 3% 19%
Which was more important in your vote for a new governor today? My candidate's positions on the issues 59% 36% 42% 14% 5% 1% 2%
My candidate's leadership/personal qualities 37% 27% 56% 12% 2% 1% 2%
Did not vote for a new governor 4% * * * * * *
Do you think Arnold Schwarzenegger addressed the issues in enough detail? Yes 32% 5% 86% 6% 1% 1% 1%
No 63% 50% 25% 16% 5% 1% 4%
No Answer 6% 25% 54% 13% 3% 1% 3%
Should the state government issue drivers licenses to illegal immigrants? Yes 24% 70% 14% 5% 7% 1% 3%
No 70% 21% 58% 15% 2% 1% 3%
No Answer 6% 49% 30% 13% 6% 1% 2%
Which comes closest to your position? Abortion should be... Legal in all cases 30% 46% 35% 8% 7% 1% 4%
Legal in most cases 35% 38% 46% 10% 3% 1% 2%
Illegal in most cases 20% 16% 62% 18% 1% 1% 2%
Illegal in all cases 10% 27% 45% 24% 1% 1% 2%
No Answer 5% 29% 47% 16% 4% 1% 4%
Which comes closest to your position? Abortion should be... Legal in most/all cases 65% 41% 41% 9% 5% 1% 3%
Illegal in most/all cases 30% 20% 57% 20% 1% 1% 2%
No Answer 5% 29% 47% 16% 4% 1% 4%
How do you feel about California's new law extending domestic partner rights for gays and lesbians? Enthusiastic 21% 57% 23% 6% 9% 1% 4%
Supportive, but not enthusiastic 32% 41% 42% 10% 3% 1% 3%
Opposed, but not angry 29% 20% 58% 17% 2% 1% 2%
Angry 13% 15% 66% 16% 0% 1% 2%
No Answer 5% 28% 50% 15% 4% 1% 2%
Feelings on new domestic partners law Enthusiastic/Supportive, but not enthusiastic 53% 47% 34% 9% 5% 1% 3%
Opposed, but not angry/Angry 42% 18% 60% 17% 2% 1% 2%
No Answer 5% 28% 50% 15% 4% 1% 2%
Recall Vote Yes 57% 6% 74% 16% 1% 1% 2%
No 43% 72% 9% 8% 7% 1% 4%
Proposition 54 Vote Yes 39% 15% 64% 16% 2% 1% 2%
No 61% 47% 34% 10% 5% 1% 3%
Recall Vote by Proposition 54 Yes both Recall & Prop 54 31% 4% 76% 17% 1% 0% 1%
Yes Recall but No Prop 54 25% 8% 73% 14% 2% 1% 2%
No Recall but Yes Prop 54 8% 60% 15% 10% 8% 2% 6%
No both Recall & Prop 54 36% 74% 7% 7% 7% 1% 4%
Recall by Replacement vote Yes - Bustamante 3% * * * * * *
Yes - Schwarzenegger 42% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Yes - Other/No Vote 12% 0% 3% 80% 6% 3% 8%
No - Bustamante 30% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
No - Schwarzenegger 4% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
No - Other/No Vote 9% 2% 1% 37% 34% 6% 20%
California Geocodes Los Angeles County 24% 40% 42% 10% 4% 1% 3%
Southern California 29% 23% 59% 13% 2% 1% 2%
Bay Area 18% 51% 26% 12% 5% 1% 5%
Coastal 11% 44% 35% 11% 4% 0% 5%
Inland/Valley 18% 22% 56% 17% 4% 1% 0%
Exit poll/Telephone poll Exit poll 76% 34% 45% 13% 4% 1% 3%
Telephone poll 24% 35% 49% 12% 2% 1% 1%

© 2003 The Washington Post Company




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