By Helen Dewar
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, January 26, 1998; Page A11

Only days ago, President Clinton appeared in control of the congressional agenda, filling it with one popular initiative after another.

Now his presidency is dominated by scandal, and Congress faces uncertainty as it prepares to reconvene Tuesday and begin dealing with a heavy load of work that begs for strong White House leadership.

Clinton's proposals to expand child care, Medicare and many other programs are not the only possible casualties. Congress could have difficulty pulling together on other difficult issues -- ranging from tobacco and taxes to trade, Bosnia and the financial bailout for Southeast Asia -- without strong presidential involvement, lawmakers have said.

KEY ISSUES FACING THE 105th CONGRESS Tobacco Both houses plan to act on legislation to implement and probably broaden the proposed tobacco settlement, although leaders of both parties have warned passage is not assured. Budget President Clinton has said he will submit a balanced budget. Anticipated surpluses have triggered a struggle over whether to spend the windfall, enact tax cuts or use it for the debt and Social Security. Taxes The Senate plans to expand on House-approved legislation to curb abuses by the Internal Revenue Service. Republicans want action on some targeted tax relief, such as elimination of the "marriage penal-ty." Debate will begin on a more far-reaching tax code overhaul. Foreign policy Proposals to provide new credit for the International Monetary Fund, pay back dues to the United Nations and overhaul foreign policy agencies died last year in a dispute over family planning assistance. The administration plans another bid for the IMF and U.N. funding, possibly as early as March or April. Lawmakers said strong resistance is likely. NATO The Senate plans to act on a treaty to admit Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Senate leaders have said approval is likely. Trade The administration may attempt to revive legislation that died in the House to give the president "fast track" authority to negotiate trade agreements that cannot be amended by Congress. Highways Pressure will be strong for early action on a six-year reauthorization of transportation spending. Current authority expired in September and was extended through spring. Child care Clinton has proposed $21.7 billion in spending increases and tax credits for child care; Republicans are drafting alternatives that help stay-at-home mothers. Medicare Clinton wants to let early retirees and displaced workers buy coverage. Republican leaders oppose the initiative. Campaign finance Both houses are scheduled to take up legislation to tighten campaign funding laws, including banning "soft money" donations to parties. The House will continue hearings on the 1996 presidential campaign. Affirmative action Republicans plan to push legislation to bar the government from using racial and gender preferences, starting with Senate consideration of preferential contracting for highway work. Abortion Both houses approved -- and Clinton vetoed -- legislation to ban what opponents call "partial-birth" abortion. The House has demonstrated the votes to override the veto; the Senate has not. Labor Clinton may seek an increase in the $5.15-per-hour minimum wage, and Democrats plan to push for enactment. Republicans will push again to relax federal workplace rules and force unions to get members' permission to spend dues for political purposes. Crime and drugs The Senate will consider its version of House-passed legislation to encourage states to try violent juvenile offenders as adults and to revamp prevention programs. Legislation to toughen anti-drug policies is also possible. Education Clinton may seek new funds for teacher hiring and school construction. Republicans will seek tax credits for school costs and projects testing use of vouchers. Housing House and Senate negotiators will try to resolve long-standing disagreements over a major overhaul of public housing laws. Environment Renewed efforts will be made to revamp laws on toxic waste cleanup and endangered species. Some Republicans may again try to challenge the administration's tough new air quality rules. More fights may occur over public lands and logging in national forests. Nominations The administration will push for confirmation of more federal judges, for David Satcher as surgeon general and for Bill Lann Lee as chief civil rights enforcer.

The 105th Congress already is trying to shoehorn an unusually long, controversy-filled agenda into a preshrunk election-year session that will begin late and end early, punctuated by long recesses. There will be fewer than 100 actual working days, considerably fewer than normal, according to Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-Miss.). "We've got a lot of hard work in a very limited time," said Senate Minority Leader Thomas A. Daschle (D-S.D.).

As a result, Lott is urging lawmakers to concentrate on a few major areas, such as education and taxes, rather than trying to pass "a bill a day," as he put it.

The first clue to Clinton's standing with the Republican-controlled Congress will come Tuesday night when he delivers his State of the Union address -- in what is bound to be a highly charged atmosphere -- to members of the House, Senate, Cabinet, Supreme Court, foreign diplomatic corps and the American public via television.

Rarely has a president faced a more daunting challenge. Some lawmakers have raised the possibility of impeachment proceedings if allegations of sexual misconduct and obstruction of justice are proven -- a specter likely to hang over the House chamber as Clinton speaks. House Judiciary Committee Chairman Henry J. Hyde (R-Ill) said on ABC's "This Week" that the presidential appearance would be "surreal . . . weird." A senior GOP senator said, "The question is whether it would be State of the Union or a state of the wake."

The congressional response to the speech will be a key test, House Appropriations Committee Chairman Bob Livingston (R-La.) told Washington Post editors and reporters Friday. An enthusiastic response would strengthen the president's hand, Livingston said. But "if it's very quiet, if it sounds like a mausoleum, with everyone sitting on their hands, I think you could probably well judge it's going to be tough."

The problem for Clinton is that people will only listen to a leader if he has "moral authority," Livingston added. "The question is: Does he?"

As of late last week, Republican leaders appeared uncertain about the impact of the president's problems on the session, while insisting it would not affect their agenda, especially as it differs from Clinton's.

"I don't think you can assess that [the impact on the session]," House Majority Leader Richard K. Armey (R-Tex.) said in an interview. "I really think we have to just move forward and see how things shape up."

Lott dodged reporters' questions on the situation Friday, saying only: "The president has proven in the past he can focus on important national and international issues while other things are going on."

But yesterday on ABC's "This Week," Lott questioned "if he [Clinton] is in any condition to make the right call" when it comes to Iraq. "You know it [the scandal] is a distraction," Lott said.

House Minority Leader Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.) said he believes that Clinton's agenda will nonetheless dominate, and even some Republicans have said other top administration officials will carry the ball on specific bills. But many Democrats have expressed concern that the president's leverage with Congress, which seemed strong only a week ago, will all but vanish unless the allegations are promptly put to rest. "He's hurting, hurting badly . . . and the longer it goes on, the worse it gets," said a senior congressional Democratic aide.

Despite the workload, including many partially finished bills left over from last year, both houses will start slowly. Republican leaders will begin to flesh out the agenda in meetings starting Monday.

For the first three weeks -- until a recess beginning Feb. 13 -- bills to ban human cloning and to rename National Airport after President Ronald Reagan are the only business scheduled so far in both houses.

The Senate had planned an early start on the huge transportation funding bill, amounting to at least $145 billion over six years, that was put off last year. But it may delay action until budget limits are nailed down, lest members' zeal for more highway spending invites a budget-busting frenzy.

One near-certain achievement will be approval of the first balanced budget since the late 1960s, which Clinton plans to propose Feb. 2, with approving nods from GOP leaders. This is three years ahead of the schedule laid down in last year's budget agreement -- the result of a booming economy and a resulting surge in tax receipts.

But there will be a major struggle over whether to use the projected surpluses for debt reduction, tax cuts, spending increases, building up Social Security reserves or a combination of them all. Republicans are pushing constraints on the Internal Revenue Service and a variety of targeted tax breaks, such as elimination of the "marriage penalty," as a down payment on a future overhaul of the tax code.

Both parties are straining to move legislation to implement a national tobacco settlement, but Lott and others have warned that passage is far from certain.

In hopes of seizing the education initiative from Clinton, GOP leaders are pushing a variety of proposals, including tax breaks and vouchers for private schools. Clinton will seek to widen access to child care and Medicare, along with other initiatives stretching from teacher hiring to food safety to pension security. Clinton may propose another minimum wage increase, while Republicans will try to jump-start workplace, regulatory and property rights bills that they have been struggling to pass for several years. Another fight is planned over campaign finance legislation.

More than in many recent sessions, Congress will have to bear down on foreign policy, which is not its favorite subject.

The administration has said it will try to revive its proposal to help replenish International Monetary Fund resources drained in the effort to rescue collapsing Asian economies. Opposition to the IMF proposal, now totaling about $18 billion, has mounted, and some congressional leaders, including Lott, have said that action on it is unlikely until questions about IMF policy are addressed.

The administration also wants to pay this country's back dues to the United Nations; a bill to authorize that payment died last year in an unrelated dispute over abortion.

Congress is likely to fight over continued U.S. military engagement in Bosnia when the administration seeks money for it, probably this spring, and may try to limit the commitment.

A treaty to expand NATO to include Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic is scheduled to come before the Senate by March; Lott expects approval. The administration also may try again to win "fast-track" trade negotiating authority, which was withdrawn last year in the face of rejection by the House. Struggles involving countries from Iran and Iraq to China are anticipated.