Wonkblog’s Daily Default Dashboard
Oct. 17 update: For two weeks in October, we monitored the ups and downs of the nation's semi-almost-couldabeen-debt default crisis in the form of the Daily Default Dashboard. Now that there is a deal in place to pay the nation's bills until February, we can retire this feature. For now, at least!
The United States government will soon be unable to pay all its bills -- causing what the Obama administration says will be a historic default on the federal debt. Without action by Congress to raise the debt ceiling, the Treasury Department says default could happen any day after Oct. 17. Nobody knows whether it will happen, but each day Wonkblog will offer an indication of how close we are to default, based on the financial markets. Read the dashboard from previous days.
Hmm. Something’s not quite right.
Getting kind of scary
Getting really scary!
There is no single indicator that shows how long it will take until the United States begins to default on its debts. But the indicators below reflect how nervous financial markets are. If stocks fall, volatility spikes and economic confidence declines, this suggests markets and consumers are bracing for a potential default. If the United States must pay more interest to borrow money through Treasury bills, that suggests investors are growing less confident that the government can fulfill its obligations. Credit default swaps essentially serve as insurance against a U.S. default, so if they become more expensive, it means the probability of default is higher.
||What it means|
Note: Data reflects market value at 5 p.m.