Muriel Bowser

The advantage for Bowser is that Democrats dominate the District, representing three-quarters of registered voters. In past elections, she has been dominant in her home Ward 4, a key mayoral battleground.

A winning scenario for Bowser: Black Democrats rally for Bowser, and she wins among white Democrats. Among independents and Republicans, she earns enough support to deny her opponent a win.

How Bowser could win

60%

of the black Democratic vote

50%

of the white Democratic vote

35%

of the Republican and independent vote

David A. Catania or Carol Schwartz

An advantage for Catania and Schwartz is that thousands across the District voted for them in previous D.C. Council wins. Although independents and Republicans represent only a quarter of registered voters, they can swing a close race if they turn out.

A winning scenario for Catania or Schwartz: Surging turnout among independents and Republicans matches that of Democrats, and Catania or Schwartz gets a lion’s share of their votes. Enough Democrats defect from Bowser to make her vulnerable.

How Catania or Schwartz could win

36%

of the black Democratic vote

34%

of the white Democratic vote

80%

of the Republican and independent vote

Create your own scenario

Change the settings below to see how varying levels of support among these three voter groups affect the chance to win for other candidates or even yourself. Hit 50 percent or higher to win.

23%

of the black Democratic vote

45%

of the white Democratic vote

31%

of the Republican and independent vote

Note: These scenarios are theoretical exercises based on voter registration data, voting patterns in the prior D.C. mayoral election and assumptions concerning how those patterns could change. Bowser, Catania and Schwartz were the candidates who drew substantial support in polling earlier this year. To win the real election in November, a candidate must get the most votes, but not necessarily a 50-percent majority.