2011 Kentucky Derby preview

Post Time: Saturday, May 7, 6:24 p.m., NBC

Beyer speed figures (BSF) explained


Horse Andrew Beyer's Analysis Odds

1. Archarcharch

Trainer: William H. Fires
Jockey: Jon Court
Rallied from 10th place to win the Arkansas Derby at 25 to 1, but the performance was no fluke. Training well, he's a legitimate contender at Churchill.

10-1

BSF: 98

2. Brilliant Speed

Trainer: Tom Albertrani
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Performed well in stakes on grass and synthetic surfaces, but his two tries on dirt, at the outset of his career, were dismal.

30-1

BSF: 93

3. Twice the Appeal

Trainer: Jeff Bonde
Jockey: Calvin Borel
On paper he doesn't have much chance, but the man in the saddle is Calvin Borel, winner of three of the last four Derbies.

20-1

BSF: 89

4. Stay Thirsty

Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Ramon Dominguez
When his stablemate Uncle Mo was scratched, he became Pletcher's only Derby starter--and not a formidable one.

20-1

BSF: 89

5. Decisive Moment

Trainer: Juan Arias
Jockey: Kerwin Clark
It would be a remarkable story if 52-year-old jockey Kerwin Clark won the Derby but, alas, this speedster is a candidate to finish last.

30-1

BSF: 91

6. Comma to the Top

Trainer: Peter Miller
Jockey: Patrick Valenzuela
Trainer said the speedster wouldn't run in the Derby because the distance was too far. Then he changed his mind. He was right the first time.

30-1

BSF: 97

7. Pants on Fire

Trainer: Kelly Breen
Jockey: Rosie Napravnik
After winning the Louisiana Derby, Rosie Napravnik tries to become the first woman to win the Kentucky Derby. She has the talent, but does the horse?

20-1

BSF: 94

8. Dialed In

Trainer: Nicholas P. Zito
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Became the favorite with last-to-first rallies in two Florida stakes. One caveat: No horse with only four career starts has won the Derby since 1918.

4-1

BSF: 97

9. Derby Kitten

Trainer: Michael Maker
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Got into the Derby field at the 11th hour when Toby's Corner was withdrawn.Only prior dirt race was a 27-length defeat.

30-1

BSF: 92

10. Twinspired

Trainer: Mike Maker
Jockey: Mike Smith
Lost the Blue Grass Stakes on Polytrack by a nose, but his only race on dirt was dismal.

30-1

BSF: 93

11. Master of Hounds

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien
Jockey: Garrett Gomez
In a Derby with such a weak field, it's not ridiculous to take a gamble with a decent European colt who has never raced on dirt.

30-1

BSF: N/A

12. Santiva

Trainer: Eddie Kenneally
Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan
Had some minor traffic trouble in the Blue Grass Stakes, but it didn't matter; his best form doesn't appear good enough.

30-1

BSF: 91

13. Mucho Macho Man

Trainer: Kathy Ritvo
Jockey: Rajiv Maragh
Consistent colt, winner of the Risen Star Stakes in Louisiana, could make Kathy Ritvo the first female trainer to win the Derby.

12-1

BSF: 94

14. Shackleford

Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Jesus Castanon
Ran a gutsy race to finish second in the Florida Derby at 68-1 odds. He's getting some buzz at Churchill this week.

12-1

BSF: 93

15. Midnight Interlude

Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Bob Baffert's top prospect, The Factor, faltered, but this colt brought the trainer to Louisville after a surprise win in the Santa Anita Derby.

10-1

BSF: 97

16. Animal Kingdom

Trainer: H. Graham Motion
Jockey: Robby Albarado
He has done all of his racing on synthetics and turf, but clockers have raved about his training on dirt at Churchill.

30-1

BSF: 93

17. Soldat

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey: Alan Garcia
Ran two big races at Gulfstream Park when he was able to get the early lead easily. He won't have that luxury in the Derby.

12-1

BSF: 103

18. Uncle Mo

Scratched

19. Nehro

Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Corey Nakatani
Virtually unknown a few weeks ago, trainer Steve Asmussen's colt closed powerfully and just missed in the Arkansas Derby, looking like a real Kentucky Derby contender.

6-1

BSF: 98

20. Watch Me Go

Trainer: Kathleen O'Connell
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Scored a 43-to-1 upset in the Tampa Bay Derby, but he's hopelessly overmatched in this Derby.

50-1

BSF: 84

By Andrew Beyer - The Washington Post. Published May 4, 2011; Note: BSF represents best 3-year-old performance.