2011 Kentucky Derby preview

Post Time: Saturday, May 7, 6:24 p.m., NBC

	Andrew Beyer's Analysis	Odds
1. Archarcharch Trainer: William H. Fires Jockey: Jon Court	Rallied from 10th place to win the Arkansas Derby at 25 to 1, but the performance was no fluke. Training well, he's a legitimate contender at Churchill.	10-1 BSF: 98
2. Brilliant Speed Trainer: Tom Albertrani Jockey: Joel Rosario	Performed well in stakes on grass and synthetic surfaces, but his two tries on dirt, at the outset of his career, were dismal.	30-1 BSF: 93
3. Twice the Appeal Trainer: Jeff Bonde Jockey: Calvin Borel	On paper he doesn't have much chance, but the man in the saddle is Calvin Borel, winner of three of the last four Derbies. Calvin Borel's Derby record	20-1 BSF: 89
4. Stay Thirsty Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Ramon Dominguez	When his stablemate Uncle Mo was scratched, he became Pletcher's only Derby starter--and not a formidable one.	20-1 BSF: 89
5. Decisive Moment Trainer: Juan Arias Jockey: Kerwin Clark	It would be a remarkable story if 52-year-old jockey Kerwin Clark won the Derby but, alas, this speedster is a candidate to finish last.	30-1 BSF: 91
6. Comma to the Top Trainer: Peter Miller Jockey: Patrick Valenzuela	Trainer said the speedster wouldn't run in the Derby because the distance was too far. Then he changed his mind. He was right the first time.	30-1 BSF: 97
7. Pants on Fire Trainer: Kelly Breen Jockey: Rosie Napravnik	After winning the Louisiana Derby, Rosie Napravnik tries to become the first woman to win the Kentucky Derby. She has the talent, but does the horse?	20-1 BSF: 94
8. Dialed In Trainer: Nicholas P. Zito Jockey: Julien Leparoux	Became the favorite with last-to-first rallies in two Florida stakes. One caveat: No horse with only four career starts has won the Derby since 1918. Four career starts: Is it enough?	4-1 BSF: 97
9. Derby Kitten Trainer: Michael Maker Jockey: Javier Castellano	Got into the Derby field at the 11th hour when Toby's Corner was withdrawn.Only prior dirt race was a 27-length defeat.	30-1 BSF: 92
10. Twinspired Trainer: Mike Maker Jockey: Mike Smith	Lost the Blue Grass Stakes on Polytrack by a nose, but his only race on dirt was dismal.	30-1 BSF: 93
11. Master of Hounds Trainer: Aidan O'Brien Jockey: Garrett Gomez	In a Derby with such a weak field, it's not ridiculous to take a gamble with a decent European colt who has never raced on dirt.	30-1 BSF: N/A
12. Santiva Trainer: Eddie Kenneally Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan	Had some minor traffic trouble in the Blue Grass Stakes, but it didn't matter; his best form doesn't appear good enough.	30-1 BSF: 91
13. Mucho Macho Man Trainer: Kathy Ritvo Jockey: Rajiv Maragh	Consistent colt, winner of the Risen Star Stakes in Louisiana, could make Kathy Ritvo the first female trainer to win the Derby.	12-1 BSF: 94
14. Shackleford Trainer: Dale Romans Jockey: Jesus Castanon	Ran a gutsy race to finish second in the Florida Derby at 68-1 odds. He's getting some buzz at Churchill this week.	12-1 BSF: 93
15. Midnight Interlude Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert's top prospect, The Factor, faltered, but this colt brought the trainer to Louisville after a surprise win in the Santa Anita Derby. Bob Baffert's Derby record	10-1 BSF: 97
16. Animal Kingdom Trainer: H. Graham Motion Jockey: Robby Albarado	He has done all of his racing on synthetics and turf, but clockers have raved about his training on dirt at Churchill. High-stakes race, low-key presence	30-1 BSF: 93
17. Soldat Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin Jockey: Alan Garcia	Ran two big races at Gulfstream Park when he was able to get the early lead easily. He won't have that luxury in the Derby.	12-1 BSF: 103
18. Uncle Mo	Scratched
19. Nehro Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Corey Nakatani	Virtually unknown a few weeks ago, trainer Steve Asmussen's colt closed powerfully and just missed in the Arkansas Derby, looking like a real Kentucky Derby contender.	6-1 BSF: 98
20. Watch Me Go Trainer: Kathleen O'Connell Jockey: Rafael Bejarano	Scored a 43-to-1 upset in the Tampa Bay Derby, but he's hopelessly overmatched in this Derby.	50-1 BSF: 84