2011 Preakness preview

Post Time: Saturday, May 21, 6:18 p.m., NBC

Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) explained


Horse Andrew Beyer's Analysis Odds

1. Astrology

Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Mike Smith
Second in his last three starts, he's the second-stringer in Asmussen's barn behind Nehro, who finished second in the Derby.

15-1

BSF: 93

2. Norman Asbjornson

Trainer: Christopher Grove
Jockey: Julian Pimentel
Trainer says his colt is "peaking right now," but 4th-place finish in slow Wood Memorial wasn't encouraging.

30-1

BSF: 87

3. King Congie

Trainer: Tom Albertrani
Jockey: Robby Albarado
All of his good form is on grass or synthetic tracks. Soundly beaten in two starts on dirt.

20-1

BSF: 93

4. Flashpoint

Trainer: Wesley A. Ward
Jockey: Cornelio Velasquez
Lightly raced colt zipped 7 furlongs in 1:22 winning a stakes in Florida, indicating that he's the fastest of the speed horses in the lineup.

20-1

BSF: 102

5. Shackleford

Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Jesus Castanon
He'll never have a nicer set-up than he did in the Derby, getting an uncontested lead while setting a slow pace, but he couldn't finish better than fourth.

12-1

BSF: 97

6. Sway Away

Trainer: Jeff Bonde
Jockey: Garrett Gomez
Excluded from the Derby because of insufficient earnings, he's a better colt than many who ran. Made a strong move before finishing 4th in the Arkansas Derby.

15-1

BSF: 101

7. Midnight Interlude

Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Martin Garcia
"In the Derby," Baffert conceded, "he just laid a big goose egg." But previously the colt won the Santa Anita Derby.

15-1

BSF: 97

8. Dance City

Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Ramon Dominguez
Pletcher colt comes to Pimlico after a 35-day layoff since a gutsy 3rd-place finish in the Arkansas Derby. Definitely a contender.

12-1

BSF: 95

9. Mucho Macho Man

Trainer: Kathy Ritvo
Jockey: Rajiv Maragh
After his third-place Derby finish, he gives Kathy Ritvo a realistic shot to become the first of her gender to train a Preakness winner.

6-1

BSF: 99

10. Dialed In

Trainer: Nicholas P. Zito
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
The slow early pace may have compromised the Derby favorite. Zito understandably will give him another chance: He'll collect a $5.5 million bonus if he wins.

9-2

BSF: 97

11. Animal Kingdom

Trainer: H. Graham Motion
Jockey: John Velazquez
His 20-to-1 victory at Churchill Downs was a surprise, but no fluke. Nobody behind him had a legitimate excuse. The deserving Preakness favorite.

2-1

BSF: 103

12. Isn't He Perfect

Trainer: Doodnauth Shivmangal
Jockey: Edgar Prado
Ex-claiming horse, soundly beaten in two stakes tries, is way out of his element here.

30-1

BSF: 84

13. Concealed Identity

Trainer: Eddie Gaudet
Jockey: Sheldon Russell
One-eyed gelding captured the Tesio at Pimlico, but it's hard to see him improving enough to be a contender here.

30-1

BSF: 86

14. Mr. Commons

Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Finished third in the Santa Anita Derby. The two colts ahead of him ran 16th and 19th in Kentucky.

20-1

BSF: 93

By Andrew Beyer - The Washington Post. Published May 18, 2011; Note: BSF represents best 3-year-old performance.