2012 Kentucky Derby draw and preview

Post Time: Saturday, May 5, 6:24 p.m., NBC

Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) explained


Horse Andrew Beyer's Analysis Odds

1. Daddy Long Legs

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien
Jockey: Colm O'Donoghue
Won the $2 million UAE Derby in Dubai over a synthetic track in slow time, but his one prior try on dirt in the U.S. was a disaster.

30-1

BSF: N/A

2. Optimizer

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Jon Court
With Mark Valeski's defection, Wayne Lukas's colt gets into the field and gives trainer a shot at his fifth Derby win. But he looks hopelessly overmatched.

50-1

BSF: 91

3. Take Charge Indy

Trainer: Patrick Byrne
Jockey: Calvin Borel
Colt will get plenty of support with three-time Derby winner Calvin Borel aboard, but he won't get an unpressured early lead as he did in winning the Florida Derby.

15-1

BSF: 96

4. Union Rags

Trainer: Michael Matz
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Colt narrowly missed winning 2-year-old title, and big things were expected of him at 3. Florida Derby loss was a disappointment, but maybe Michael Matz has him cranked up for a big Derby as he did with Barbaro.

9-2

BSF: 96

5. Dullahan

Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Flew past Hansen to capture the Blue Grass Stakes, but that was over a synthetic surface. His ability on dirt is still questionable.

8-1

BSF: 98

6. Bodemeister

Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
After a runaway victory in the Arkansas Derby, he should be favored to give Bob Baffert his fourth Kentucky Derby win. But does he have enough seasoning? The last horse who won without racing at 2 years old was Apollo -- in 1882.

4-1

BSF: 108

7. Rousing Sermon

Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
Jockey: Jose Lezcano
Plodder hasn't had much success this year, but longer distance and fast pace may help him.

50-1

BSF: 88

8. Creative Cause

Trainer: Mike Harrington
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Beat Bodemeister in the San Felipe Stakes, then lost Santa Anita Derby by a nose. Consistent, seasoned colt is a serious contender.

12-1

BSF: 102

9. Trinniberg

Trainer: Bisnath Parboo
Jockey: Willie Martinez
Speedster has won two seven-furlong races and is certain to be the Derby pacesetter, but he's ill-prepared to run 1 1/4 miles. He's a good bet to finish last -- a distant last.

50-1

BSF: 99

10. Daddy Nose Best

Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Garett Gomez
After being miscast as a grass runner, he won the Sunland Derby in New Mexico with a good speed figure. Strong finisher has the right style for a Derby filled with front-running types.

15-1

BSF: 100

11. Alpha

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey: Alan Garcia
Sheikh Mohammed of Dubai has won almost every important race in the world except the Derby. He has a good chance with this colt, who lost the Wood Memorial by a neck.

15-1

BSF: 98

12. Prospective

Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Luis Contreras
Victory in the slow Tampa Bay Derby doesn't suggest that he could possibly be a contender here, though clockers say he has looked great in training at Churchill.

30-1

BSF: 90

13. Went the Day Well

Trainer: H. Graham Motion
Jockey: John Velazquez
After Graham Motion won the '11 Derby with Animal Kingdom, bettors back him as if he can perform miracles. But this lightly raced colt is no Animal Kingdom.

20-1

BSF: 92

14. Hansen

Trainer: Mike Maker
Jockey: Ramon Dominguez
Striking white colt is a fan favorite as well as the reigning champion of his generation, but the 1 1/4-mile Derby distance looks too far for him.

10-1

BSF: 96

15. Gemologist

Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Pletcher trainee has won all five of his starts, most recently the Wood Memorial. His speed figures aren't dazzling, but he has room to improve.

6-1

BSF: 98

16. El Padrino

Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Looked like a prime contender early in the winter, but he appears to be on the downgrade. After Florida Derby loss, he's Pletcher's second-stringer.

20-1

BSF: 100

17. Done Talking

Trainer: Hamilton Smith
Jockey: Sheldon Russell
Maryland-based colt, winner of the Illinois Derby, is overmatched here, but he'll be rallying past some of the tired speed horses in the stretch.

50-1

BSF: 85

18. Sabercat

Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Corey Nakatani
Stretch-runner has been soundly beaten in his two starts this year, but Steve Asmussen -- a no-nonsense trainer -- says he'll run the race of his life Saturday.

30-1

BSF: 92

19. I'll Have Another

Trainer: Doug O'Neill
Jockey: Mario Gutierrez
Obscure jockey Mario Gutierrez gets a shot at glory after winning Santa Anita Derby in an upset over Creative Cause.

12-1

BSF: 96

20. Liaison

Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Martin Garcia
His 3-year-old record looks dismal, but Baffert says he likes Churchill Downs and is training well.

50-1

BSF: 92

By Andrew Beyer - The Washington Post. Published May 2, 2012; Note: BSF represents best figure earned as a 3-year-old.