By Michael Wilbon
Washington Post Columnist
Tuesday, February 2, 1999; Page D1

MIAMI – Is the NFC lame or what? When is this sorry, no-account conference going to win another Super Bowl? The one thing the old NFC could always count on was beating Denver. It was like Groundhog Day; if the Broncos showed up on the last Sunday in January there would be six more weeks of laughing. Now, the NFC can't even beat Denver. What's next, Buffalo burning up Atlanta?

Well, maybe. Maybe Buffalo, maybe Jacksonville, maybe the Jets, maybe Tennessee. Possibly Miami or Pittsburgh. Once might be a fluke, twice is a pattern when it comes to the Super Bowl. For 13 straight years AFC stood for "All Fraud Conference." It was hollow, flawed football. And I guess it's possible we could just be having a John Elway-Terrell Davis interruption that has nothing to do with anything else going on in the AFC. But there are plenty of indications that say otherwise.

The NFC teams that dominated from 1984 to 1996 are done. The geriatric San Francisco 49ers may well put together a 12-4 season again in 1999, but without an infusion of young talent and injury-free encore seasons from Steve Young and Jerry Rice, the Niners are done as we know them. The ownership situation is unsettled and just because Bill Walsh is one of the great coaches ever doesn't mean he'll have the same success as the general manager.

The Cowboys? Please. If you think Dallas was bad this past season, wait until the '99 season. Teams siphoned talent off those championship teams for a half-dozen years. And now, the three people primarily responsible for the three Super Bowl titles – Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin – are battle-scarred. It's natural evolution. The Dallas Cowboys of the early and mid '90s are a video memory.

The Giants simply don't have the talent, particularly on offense.

And who knows in which direction the Redskins are headed? They are the least-known quantity in the bunch. They could pull it together and make the playoffs next season, or decide to start over under a new owner.

Those four teams won 11 of the 13 Super Bowls during the NFC streak. The other two were won by the Packers, who are the only team from the streak that still looks as if it could be a serious contender next season, and the Bears, who might as well have expired. What an embarrassment they have become. The Bears' CEO, Mike McCaskey, is too inept to do something as fundamental as hire a head coach. Los Angeles isn't the only major market where the NFL lacks a professional football team.

The NFC is now in the hands of a bunch of unproven teams, except for Green Bay: the Vikings, Falcons, Buccaneers and Cardinals. Of course, the Vikings have championship talent; what we want to know is if they have championship resilience. Can they bounce back from the crushing disappointment of losing to Atlanta? Also, it's easier to come in as a backup when nothing much is expected of you, but now that Randall Cunningham is The Man, will he revert to Eagles form or will he continue to be the New and Improved Randall?

The Falcons have a lot of nice parts, but I'm not rushing out to proclaim Chris Chandler a Super Bowl quarterback. How could you after Sunday's interception-filled performance? I think the Buccaneers will rebound to go 12-4, but everybody has doubts about Trent Dilfer. The Cardinals have the personnel on both sides of the ball; they should win the feeble NFC East in a walk. But they're the Cardinals. If you think people were cynical about the Falcons, wait until you see the cynicism that meets the Cardinals if they make a run in the regular season. The Cardinals, who could be to next season what Tampa Bay was to this season, need at least two years before they're ready.

Meanwhile, several AFC teams appear to be in position to make a breakthrough. Start with the Jets. I doubt Vinny Testaverde will duplicate this past season, but do we think Bill Parcells is going to stand pat at quarterback and not keep his eyes open for a big-time backup?

Just when you figure Jacksonville lost too much sideline help to stay on course, Tom Coughlin made perhaps the best hire of the postseason by getting former Carolina head coach Dom Capers to be his defensive coordinator. All Tennessee needs is seasoning; they're at least a year ahead of the Cardinals. I have my doubts about Miami taking a step forward with Jimmy Johnson having turned into Cliff Huxtable, wanting to be Mr. Family all of a sudden, and this Dave Wannstedt-as-coach-in- waiting thing. But Buffalo will get people back from injury and sabbaticals, the Seattle Seahawks will be a lot better now that they have a proven professional coach (Mike Holmgren in place of Dennis Erickson), and I look for Bill Cowher to get the Steelers offense and Kordell Stewart straightened out in the offseason.

Oh, did I mention the Broncos?

The smart money is on John Elway retiring. Two straight titles at 37 and 38 years old? Anything from here is on borrowed time, right? Elway says he doesn't see Michael Jordan's retirement as fitting his situation because he doesn't have as many championships as Jordan does and he isn't a cultural icon. Still, when Elway walked off the field with 50 seconds left Sunday night, he knew it was the greatest feeling he'd ever had and said so afterward. That walk to the sideline was like Jordan's right hand raised in that exaggerated follow-through on that final jumper to beat Utah for the NBA championship.

I think Elway is going to retire and I don't blame him one bit. He'll be 39 next season. He can't run anymore, which is a huge part of what has made him one of the three or four greatest quarterbacks ever. While he never has had a major injury, he was beaten up all those years when he was a one-man band in the mid and late '80s.

On the other hand, the chance to win three straight Super Bowls – which no team has ever done – is going to be pretty tempting in the offseason, when you romanticize training camp and forget the sick feeling that comes after a tough defeat. Given the team the Broncos have assembled, it's never been as easy for Elway to get to the Super Bowl. Getting that far will be difficult. Once there, however, it's easier than it used to be.