My first guest is K.C. Bourne, who has just written a book for IDG called "Year 2000 Solutions for Dummies." Read chapter one here. Bourne is a software developer and consultant. This is Bourne's second book; his first is Testing Client/Server Systems (published by McGraw-Hill). He is online to answer your concerns about Y2K issues.

When the clock strikes 12 on Dec. 31, 1999, will our society really go to hell? Will banks fail? Will power grids black out? All this and more, keep reading.

Linton Weeks: Greetings, everybody. Welcome to the first Navigator Live, a show for folks who are curious about the digital world. Our guest is K.C. Bourne who has written Year 2000 Solutions for Dummies. K.C. is a software developer in Omaha, Nebraska, but he's promised not to get too technical. He's married to his high school sweetheart, Liz. They have three kids. He coaches his daughter's volleyball team and helps with Boy Scout campouts. Y2K, he says, is a tsunami about to hit. So. K.C., let's get to the first question.

Washington, DC: Do you believe that the Y2K computer problem is the most important issue facing the world for the next year?

K.C. Bourne: Absolutely! The potential fallout from this makes today's economic and political
problems pale in comparison.

Lake Ridge, VA: I have been hearing and reading a great deal about how the power/utility companies are not y2k prepared. How big is the problem?, And can we expect a blackout on Jan 1, 2000?

K.C. Bourne: The problem for utilities is big. Besides problems with mainframe and personal computers, they have to worry about embedded systems. These are microprocessors with embedded code. I don't expect all the power to go out, but there will certainly be areas without power and brown outs.

Linton Weeks: K.C. Just to set the record straight. What exactly is the Y2K Problem. Will it affect everyone, even folks who don't own computers?

K.C. Bourne: The Y2K problem in its essence is that computer have been programmed to assume that all dates are 19xx. For the most part, programs aren't aware of the next century. This problem occurs on mainframe computers, PCs and embedded systems. There is also a problem in that the year 2000 is a leap year and many programs won't correctly recognize this.

Washington, D.C.: Can you explain in general, layman's terms what companies are doing to fix their software before Y2K?

K.C. Bourne: Large companies are searching through computer software looking for references to dates. They are also testing PCs to determine if those computers are Y2K compliant.

New York: My biggest fear about the impending Y2K crisis is the stock market will crash, BIGTIME!!! I am so concerned that i plan to sell sell sell all stocks a few months prior to 12/31/99. I am certain I am not the only one who is preparing to do this.

Could you honestly advise against this?

Does your book address this issue?

Are there any books that you know of that could ease my tensions on this and advise the most prudent course of action for my assets?

K.C. Bourne: There is the potential that the stock market will crash. Personally I believe it will definitely drop. I don't know that pulling all of your investments out of the market is the best solution. This type of activity could easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy. My book doesn't address Wall Street and personal investments, but there is at least one book on the market that does.

Reston, VA: A simple, direct question.

Will my home personal computer, purchased in 1996, fail when the time comes? If not, will there be some sort of problem that I may or may not notice?

K.C. Bourne: A home PC purchased in 1996 is definitely suspect. One survey found that nearly 50% of the computers purchased in early 1997 had a Y2K problem. Most home PC users won't be hurt too bad if their PCs don't roll over, but you should check any software that you use for tracking investments, assets, etc.

Bethesda, MD: K.C. Glad you're on. Are you taking any precautions personally?

K.C. Bourne: Personally I won't be traveling on December 31, 1999. I plan to have full tanks of gas in my cars, some cash on hand and a kitchen full of groceries.

Pittsburgh, Pa.: Are such doomsday predictions as planes falling out of the sky a real possibility? If so, why?

K.C. Bourne: No. Planes falling out of the sky aren't a likely outcome of the Y2K problem.

Washington, DC: The first chapter of your book seems to say that all PCs will have an incorrect date in the BIOS. This is not true. I hope the rest of your book makes this clear. Can you explain the PC situation better here?

K.C. Bourne: If the first chapter implies that ALL PCs will have an incorrect date then I apologize. Many will have this problem, but not all. The basic problems with PCs is that they get and store their dates in multiple places and not all of these places will recognize the year changing from 1999 to 2000.

Linton Weeks: K.C. A few weeks ago the New York Stock Exchange ran a test of its solution and it seemed to work pretty well. Have you heard of other companies that are having success or failure with Y2K fixes?

K.C. Bourne: There are companies which are having success with their Y2K fixes. One that has been working and testing diligently is Union Pacific railroad. They started early and are considered among the most successfull companies dealing with this problem.

Alexandria VA: Once Y2K is (hopefully, safely) past, what happens to all the high-tech workers who have been hired to perform their COBOL magic? Do they become redundant, or will there be another use for them? Should COBOL experts start retraining themselves now into an area of expertise where they won't find themselves unwanted by 2001?

K.C. Bourne: I'm not a COBOL programmer, but if I were I wouldn't be losing any sleep. Most of the fixes that have been put in place to deal with the Y2K problem will need to be readdressed in the future. There is also a tremendous amount of IT work that has been delayed while companies deal with Y2K. All of this work will keep COBOL programmers busy for the foreseeable future.

Baltimore, MD: How serious is the problem with embedded software used by the utility industry? I understand that it's comparatively easy to replace Y2K-deficient software, but not chips with embedded software. How mission-critical
is embedded software to power companies?

K.C. Bourne: The problem with embedded systems is very serious. For companies like utilities, refineries, pipelines, factories these systems are definitely mission critical. It is very hard to find, test and replace embedded systems.

Spartanburg, South Carolina: How can we find those institutions who are really prepared for Y2K i.e. utilities, banks, etc. I am not an alarmist, but neither am I in denial. I am a retired educator who would like to have an ongoing education about the real truth.

K.C. Bourne: Finding companies that have successfully dealt with the Y2K problem isn't easy. The reason is that all companies claim that their progress is going well. If you ask them specific questions like what tools they've used, how much software has been replaced, etc. that might enable you to tell the difference between the successes and the pretenders.

Los Angeles, CA: How do you feel about people turning to "survivalist" techniques in anticipation of the possible catastrophe?

K.C. Bourne: I think these people, especially computer professionals, owe society something. They should focusing their efforts on solving the larger picture problem. This might sound altruistic, but if everyone looks out after themselves then the problem certainly won't be solved.

Detroit MI: What about finance? If the mortgage company gives me a bill for $7,000,000.00 in interest charges I can still get the charge cleared up with a clerk.

K.C. Bourne: I think a lot of erroneous bills will be sent out to customers. Once this problem is recognized most institutions won't hassle people about mortgage payments which are 100 years overdue, etc. This will turn out to be one of the more insignificant problems in the Y2K scenario.

Linton Weeks: Well, we're half-way through. You all keep sending your questions to K.C. I'm going to take a sip of iced tea.

Waukesha, WI: Regarding the embedded microchips, how can the date be an issue for a microchip that is used as a controller for an electrical/mechanical system such as those use in power generation/transmission, manufacturing systems, automobiles, etc? Unless the date is used in a calculation or a comparison with another date why would it matter?

Linton Weeks: Whoa, K.C.! What the heck are they talking about?

K.C. Bourne: Many industrial processes are controlled by computers. Instead of these computers being on a desktop they are embedded in a chip. The software that controls them is "burned" into the chip as well. About 1% to 3% of these embedded systems are predicted to have problems dedealing with dates when the year 2000 rolls around. There are documented cases where Y2K testing has shut down factories. For more information on the impact Y2K could have on factories and production see the April 27, 1998 issue of Fortune magazine.

Herdon, VA: Do U think there'll be more
y2k jobs out there for IT
people as the year gets closer?

K.C. Bourne: Yes, there will be more Y2K jobs for Information Technology people as the time gets closer.

Linton Weeks: What about the chips in cars? Will my car stall on the way home from a New Year's Eve party?

K.C. Bourne: In some of the recent models of cars there are almost 100 microprocessors. They control everything from your fuel injection, anti-lock brakes to the airbags. There is some question that some of these embedded systems will experience problems on January 1, 2000. I haven't heard any conclusive reports one way or the other.

Hyattsville, MD: Will any Y2K problems be made worse by social (people beliving that the end is nigh or, general craziness) problems. Will they feed off one another?

K.C. Bourne: That could be the worst case scenario. When the year 1000 arrived many people thought it would be the end of the world. There will undoubtedly be people who think 2000 will be the end of the world as well.

Washington DC: What is the chance that Congress will enact legislation to prevent class action law suits against utility, transportation, telecommunication and other industries?

K.C. Bourne: I don't know what the chances of this are. There is already pressure on Congress to provide this form of protection. Numerous states have already passed legislation absolving them (state governments) from litigation.

Fairfax, VA: Why has this become an 11th hour crisis? Programmers and businesses can't pretend they didn't know the year 2000 was coming. Did no one put 2+2 together until now??

K.C. Bourne: In my opinion this has become an 11th hour crisis because businesses didn't want to spend the money to fix it in the past. They felt the money would be better sent developing new products and services. As a result we're stuck with the problem and there isn't enough time to fix all of our software.

Hollywood, CA: How about the IRS? I keep hearing they are going to be a mess. Any chance I won't have to worry about pre-200o tas returns being audited?

K.C. Bourne: My advice to you and everyone else is to pay your taxes on time. There is certainly a chance that the IRS will experience problems, but not paying taxes is a crime and eventually they will find out you haven't paid.

Wash.DC: In your answer to the above question about power company failures, you state that you don't think all utilities will shut down. Why not? How do you know? please sitesome data for this very important question.

K.C. Bourne: Like all industries, some utilities are ahead of the others in dealing with Y2K and other problems. Consequently, some utilities will have their Y2K problems corrected and others won't.

Los Angeles, Ca: Do you have any knowledge of steps the government might be taking to impose any form of martial law, minor or major? I can't believe they are as clueless as they now appear.

K.C. Bourne: I haven't heard of any steps by the government to impose martial law. I don't think they are clueless, just a little behind.

Baltimore, MD: Can you talk a little about embedded software in medical devices? My spouse works at a hospital and many coworkers there dismiss the idea that medical devices may misfunction due to a "simple data problem." What are good sources of reliable information on the Y2K problem for the medical field?

K.C. Bourne: A great deal of medical devices has embedded software. Like all embedded systems, medical devices could have problems when the calendars rolls over to the year 2000. One website which is devoted to the medical field and the Y2K problem is www.rx2000.org.

Phoenix,Arizona: What did you think of the NERC report?

K.C. Bourne: I haven't seen the most recent NRC (Nuclear Regulatory Commission) report. The last I heard on this subject was that the NRC would shut down any nuclear plants which aren't proven to be Y2K compliant by July 1, 1999.

Wash DC: How good a job do you feel that the American Media have been doing covering this topic? Judging from the comments your current host is making, the Post is not taking this story all that seriously.

K.C. Bourne: Linton, I think this one is for you.

Linton Weeks: I beg your pardon. I invited K.C. to come on this show today, didn't I?

Washington, DC: 1.How will Y2K effect the inner-city and poor neighborhoods who don't use computers and rely on government assistance?

2.What's the first country/time zone that will be hit first?

3.What's a worst and best case scenario?

K.C. Bourne: 1) The inner-city poor will be affected if the power grid and telephones go down.
2) I think Fiji is one of the first countries to be affected. New Zealand will be right after them.
3) The worst case scenario is no power, no phones, no gas, no water, no ATMs, no police and no industrial activity. The best case scenario is that most of the computers will be corrected in time and it will be a bump in the road.

Carson City, NV: What kind of effect on the economy will the Y2K issue have? A small bump in the road, or worldwide depression with hyperinflation?

K.C. Bourne: Personally I don't think it will be either of the scenarios you mentioned. It won't be just a bump in the road and it won't be a world-wide recession with hyperinflation. I agree with economist Dr. Yardeni in that there could be a recession.

Charlotesville, VA: How much is the Y2K problem going to cost the federal government? Private industry?

K.C. Bourne: Costs estimates vary greatly. The lastest figures I've heard are that the Y2K problem will cost between $300 and $600 billion world-wide. Estimated costs for the federal government are up to $50 billion. It's estimated that the costs of litigation could reach $1 trillion.

Linton Weeks: Thanks, K.C. Hope you get my invitation to the New Year's Eve Party, 1999. And hope you'll come back.

NEXT WEEK ON NAVIGATOR LIVE Next Thursday, 2 p.m. EDT, I'll wade into that wild, wicked world of sex on the Internet. My guest will be Hester Nash who runs an adult-oriented site featuring black-and-white erotic photographs from era's past. Hester, a 40 year old polymath, and her fiance, Chris, a 25 year old computer nerd, launched their site in the summer of '97. We'll be talking about censorship, feminism and the brutal competition among sex sites. "If you're going to get in this business," Hester says, "you should try to be as classy as you can."