An ethnic Albanian man peers through an insignia of an Albanian flag during March protest in Pristina, the capital of Kosovo. (Reuters)

Friday, June 19, 1998 at 1 p.m. ET

Welcome to washingtonpost.com!

The following online discussion is with Post reporter Christine Spolar and Balkans policy-watcher John Fox.

Washington Post correspondent Christine Spolar is joining us by phone in Tirana, Albania, and is dictating her answers. She's been covering the ethnic conflict in the neighboring Serbian province of Kosovo.

Balkans policy analyst John Fox is participating in this live online discussion from The Washington Post offices in midtown D.C. He is the Washington director of the Open Society Institute for the Soros Foundation, an organization supporting reform in Europe and the former Soviet Union. He formerly served as a policy expert on Eastern Europe and the Balkans for the State Department from 1989 to 1993.

This real-time event will last for approximately one hour.

Washington D.C.: John, how long do you think it will be still before NATO will actually take military action in Kosova other than shows of force?

John Fox: NATO -- which means basically the US -- will take as long as it can to plan and kick the can. Unless there are a lot more refugees quickly, then it will intervene quickly. Washington still hasn't made up its mind, but Europe is, for once, ready to go. -- John

Virginia: John, what is Serbian President Milosovec's position on Kosovo?

John Fox: Milosevic's position is whatever it takes to keep him in office, preferably for life. In this case, I think his real position is to force out as many civilian Albanians as possible -- up to 750,000 are under siege and shelling and being prepared for Bosnia-style ethnic cleansing -- and then do a quick partition of Kosovo. -- John

Arlington, Va. : Christine, you've just been out in the field on assignment. Tell us what you saw.

Christine Spolar: I first got to northern Albania May 28th. It was clear when I got there, that there was some kind of military operation going on in the villages in Kosovo. I spent a couple days on the border with binoculars, seeing what appeared to be the Yugoslav military tanks and armed personnel carriers traveling on main roads in the region. By Thursday of that week, I saw a group of men in the town of Tropoje, who said they were fleeing the fighting. By the next day, a U.N. aide representative began reporting 30 refugees had come across the mountains from Kosovo to Albania and the day after that, hundreds started coming in to Albania, over the mountains and down goat paths, looking for shelter. In the past few weeks, U.N. aide reps say more than 11,000 have come to Albania. The Albanian government estimates 15,000.

It is clear that men, among those refugees, are coming to Albania to settle their families and returning to Kosovo to fight. The town of Tropoje at times have resembled an armed camped with men clearly buying automatic rifles, machine guns, and ammunition. Every day, you can see mules with one or two weapons or boxes of ammunition heading back up into the mountain area into Kosovo.

The refugees from Kosovo are being widely welcomed by the albanians, in what is an extremely poor region of an extremely poor country. International aide agency are bringing food, mattresses and medical supplies, but the influx of people has sapped resources. -- Christine

Washington, D.C.: For Mr. Fox:
Is there any geopolitical importance to Kosovo other than its role in Serbia's medieval history? If not, how can Milosevic keep Serbs motivated to fight there, especially if the conflict becomes more protracted? Do you see any parallels between the conflict in Chechnya?

John Fox: Kosovo's geopolitical importance for the US and Europe is very high. If we get a Balkan War -- and the wonders of American and European policy have helped bring this perilously close already -- then the Atlantic alliance is split down the middle, the old Orthodox/Muslim civilizational wars can re-emerge in the bosom of Europe, and we will see a repeat of the very bloody territorial grabs -- a la the 1900s -- in SE Europe. All this is deeply destabilizing for Europe and damaging in the extreme to US interests, not to mention the countless innocents who will be slaughtered as in Bosnia. For Milosevic's side, the mythical attachment to Kosovo is already wearing thin for those who are actually fighting on the ground, as opposed to butchering civilians. -- John

No. Va. : Christine, what is ethnic cleansing? Has there been evidence of ethnic cleansing in Kosovo?

Christine Spolar: It's an interesting question because there have been lots of comparisons to Bosnia. With Bosnia, there were instances where unarmed people were being forced from their homes and villages and unarmed people being attacked. In Kosovo, this is an unfolding situation; some refugees are recounting that Serb forces are shelling their villages and they are relatively unarmed as a village. In Kosovo, however, there's also the entity known as the Kosovo Liberation Army, which has been called the armed resistance within Kosovo. How organized that armed resistance is remains to be seen. But it is clear that there is some kind of resistance within Kosovo that is fighting which raises, in some peoples minds, whether this is ethnic cleansing. -- Christine

Rosslyn: John, why is NATO reluctant to do any more fly-overs - or show any more signs of force to pressure Serbia to stop its actions against ethnic Albanians in the Kosovo province? Are there splits within NATO on what to do?

John Fox: NATO's reluctance is in the Pentagon and the White House, especially, where all the bad reasons that were raised for not doing the Bosnia intervention are being raised again. The more serious issue, having let the war erupt (as against the 1991-96 policy of deterring it through credible threats of force which were dropped by the US c. 2 years ago), is that bombing now could leave the Kosovo Liberation Army in control of the territory and lead to a de facto independent Kosovo very quickly. This could set off the domino effect that the strategic decision-makers lose sleep over. -- John

Barquinha, Portugal: To Christine:
How do you see Albania role in the Kosovo affair?

Christine Spolar: The Albanian government has officially pursued a policy of encouraging peaceful dialogue in Kosovo. It's interesting, in the capital of Tirana, to hear the dialogue from public information outlets like the newspapers or in street rallies. In those instances, people are calling for an independent Kosovo and raise the possibility of war to achieve that. The Albanian government clearly is not supporting any radical measures and continues to ask for peaceful dialogue to resolve the problem. -- Christine

Arlington VA: John Fox,
How strong is the KLA presently, and would its further strengthening have any affect on future developments in that region?

John Fox: The most credible estimates of the KLA [Kosovo Liberation Army] -- which appears to be not one organization but several factions now fighting among themselves to some extent for supremacy of the movement -- put it at perhaps 10-15,000 men under arms of widely varying calibre. That compares with probably fewer than 100 rag-taggers only 4 months ago (Milosevic has, as the State Department maintains, been the top KLA recruiting officer). There are likely tens of thousands more volunteers but not the weapons -- yet -- to arm them. -- John

Fairfax, Va: This is question for Christine Spolar. Ms.Spolar, how does Tirana look? It was a nice and lively place when many many years ago I used to live there. My fother who still is in Tirana says that the city is very run down and very much destroyed and unsafe. What is your feeling?

Christine Spolar: I've been to Tirana several times in the past years, and this time, it's much better than this time last year because, as you know, Tirana was torn with civil unrest and it was quite dangerous. Tirana now appears relatively safe to me, but I think I have a higher threshold than other people for what I consider unsafe. In the north, it's much rougher. Most men carry a pistol and some go further. My driver, for example, carried a hand grenade in the glove compartment -- unbeknownst to me -- for most of my travel. Tirana itself, as of much of Albania, is very poor. -- Christine

GENOA, ITALY: Mr. Fox,Would't be more effective to spread information in Serbia with VOA programs in Serbian language, giving so the opportunity to Serbian people to choose between democracy and the Seselij-Milosevic bunch?

John Fox: The VOA Serbian and other foreign-broadcast programs are often excellent, but they have been at it for many years and Milosevic isn't learning very much apparently. But now a lot of people are dying and are going to die on the ground and a Balkan war is about the spread, so this unfortunately becomes a secondary measure. -- John

Arlington, Virginia: Christine, how many people have been killed or displaced in the Kosovo conflict between Serbia and ethnic Albanians?

Christine Spolar: The figures are saying 300 people killed. The problem with these figures is that you're relying on Serbian and Kosovo authorities, both who have vested interest in these figures. The fighting started more than 2 months ago. It intensified nearly three weeks ago. Reporters in Pristina, the capital of Kosovo, have been restricted from freely entering area, neither have aid workers have been able to enter. No one really knows the situation in these villages. That's one of the reasons I went to the Albanian border. I figured: 'If I can't see it from one side, go to the other.' I think It's very frustrating for everyone who wants to paint an accurate picture of this conflict not to have the access — no matter how dangerous — to fully tell the story. -- Christine

Ankara, TURKEY: Your Honor,
It has been said by some experienced diplomats that there is a limit of number of acrocities, deaths to happen before Western powers decide to intervene a conflict or a civil war.
Some indicate that USA decided to act in Bosnia only after 120.000 deaths.
What is the propable number of deaths, rapes and ethnic cleaning to provoke an act against viligant Serbs?
Do Albanians have to bleed so much before help arrives?
Didn't we learn anything about Serbian fascist intentions and policies in Bosnia?
Every passing day without action erases the image of USA as the superpower that protects those who face annihilation
Thanks.

John Fox: Scandalous as the Western response and non-response was on Bosnia, the "limit" on Kosovo killing is much lower for the great powers. They simply cannot tolerate the level of killing we saw in Bosnia, because it would trigger the larger wars of all against all throughout the region beyond Kosovo that would set European security -- much less the building of the New Europe -- back 100 years. But for the civilians on the ground who as ever bear the brunt of the power games, the internalized fear after Bosnia is far higher, and they will flee much earlier and faster, with excellent reason. The men are staying to fight. One should also not forget in this the hapless situation of many Serbs and non-Albanian minorities in Kosovo, who are also victims. -- John

Deale, Maryland: Christine - In your opinion, what role would ethnic Albanians living in Kosovo like to see NATO play in this conflict?

Christine Spolar: The rallies here in Albania about Kosovo are calling for an independent Kosovo. And in those rallies, people are asking Nato to go in and use military force. -- Christine

new york, new york: John, Will the ICTY have jurisdiction over crimes that may occur in Kosovo, or is the jurisdiction of the court limited to crimes which took place before Dayton?

John Fox: The International War Crimes Tribunal on the former Yugoslavia reaffirmed its jurisdiction over crimes against humanity, war crimes and other violations of international humanitarian law at the outset of Milosevic's attacks in Kosovo in March. The question is what the Tribunal is really doing about it, in contrast to what was done under the Prosecutor Goldstone when real-time war crimes occurred on his watch. There could be a much more robust response, from both the Tribunal and the great powers, which would have some deterrent effect and also keep the Tribunal from becoming a more and more historical event. -- John

NEW YORK, NEW YORK: John,
What do you mean when you say " Domino effect"

Christine Spolar: This means that the conflict in Kosovo will spill over, and quickly, drawing in neighboring Macedonia (which has 1/3 Albanian population), Albania itself, and would lead to the break-up of Macedonia and competition among its neighbors for the carcass, with Greece and Turkey coming in on opposite sides. -- John

Host Jude Doherty: We are roughly half-way through this live online discussion on Kosovo with Post correspondent Christine Spolar and policy-watcher John Fox of the Open Society Institute.

Send your questions to either guest by clicking on the "Submit Question" hyperlink. Please note at the beginning of the question whether you are directing your query either John Fox or Christine Spolar.

Mountain View, CA: For Mr. Fox:

It's very interesting that everybody keeps forgetting what Serbs demanded for themselves in Bosnia and Croatia. Why not simply apply the same rules and require Serbs to give the same to Albanians in Kosovo and Bosniaks in serbian region of Sanjak?
Didn't Serbs get their own "republic" in Bosnia?

John Fox: The Bosnian Serbs got a quasi-state, Republika Srpska, under the Dayton Agreement, with a standing army and various state functions. This is now beginning to integrate a bit better into the larger Bosnian state, with the rise of political moderates and more aggressive Western approach to war criminals and nationalists throughout Bosnia. This "RS" formula might still be a feasible approach for Kosovo, but only if the Western intervention comes in the next weeks. -- John

Northern Virginia: Christine, what does the Albanian govt think about the conflict?
How are they responding? Are they aiding refugees? Are they supplying guns to ethnic militants fighting Serbs? What are their options?

Christine Spolar: The Albanian government in Tirana was, by my estimate, in fact quite slow to responding to the refugee problem. The local authorities in that region were very quick to respond. The reason behind the central government's response remains unclear. It must be noted, however, that this is a very poor country and perhaps the central government had neither the means nor the organizational skills to respond well. I have reported, though, it's clear Albanian authorities have looked the other way when it comes to resistance group apparently operating out of the northern region. There's clearly gun smuggling going on and there are clearly men in military garb bearing the liberation army's insignia. And it is clear, men with guns are going back over border into Kosovo. -- Christine

North Bergen, New Jersey: Christine, in every newspaper and articles we read about the one-sided history of Kosova. Many journalist start to talk about Kosova from 1389. Kosova known as Dardania did exist long before the Battle of Kosova in 1389. Kosova is inhabited by Albanians the descandants of the Illyrians the oldest inhabitants in the Balkans. Why you never talk about the history of Albanians in Kosova?
Ilber Gashji
<igashi@yahoo.com>

Christine Spolar: I have only so much space in the paper and there is a lot going on today. I'm sure there will be a time to talk about the long history of the region in another article. -- Christine

NEW ORLEANS LA: WE CAN CLEARLY SEE THAT TWO BIG COUNTRIES, CHINA AND RUSIA, WHOSE GOVERMENTS ARE KNOWN TO ABUSE BASIC HUMAN RIGHTS , ESPECIALLY TO MINORITIES, ARE AGAINST THE WESTERN INTERVENTION IN KOSOVO.
MANY FEEL THAT IF NATO INTERVENES, RUSIA MIGHT HELP THE SERBS WHO SAY THAT THEY WILL FIGHT ANYONE WHO TRIES TO INTERFERE IN THEIR "INTERNAL" PROBLEM.

MY QUESTION IS TO JOHN:
IS THERE A POSSIBLE CHANCE FOR THE THIRD WORLD WAR TO START IN KOSOVO?

John Fox: It is indeed more than ironic that the moral and political authors of the Chechnya "war" should be mediating any civilized interest in the Kosovo issue. In fact, while Yeltsin may have bought Milosevic some weeks or even months, he may have helped seal Milosevic's fate. The fact is the Milosevic got a NATO intervention in Bosnia that saved him, as his forces were being hit hard on the ground. His forces will be bled over time in Kosovo in much the same fashion that Russian forces were bled in Chechnya. This is no favor at all to Serbia's real interest, which is to become a democratic, open country integrating with its neighborhood into Europe and the world. But Russia and China will do nothing more than cast UN vetos for Serbia and sell it arms. They will not intervene directly. Their blocking of a Western intervention will certainly cost many civilian lives, as well as those of combatants of course. -- John

Calgary, Canada: Christine, what chances do you think the Albanians of Kosova have to attain independence?

Christine Spolar: The Albanians want an independent Kosovo. The West has supported a peaceful resolution to the conflict, but it is not supporting an independent Kosovo. There seems to be a disparity between what the Albanians are asking for and what the West is supporting. -- Christine

Arlington, Virginia: Christine, when and what prompted Serbian attacks against ethnic Albanians in Kosovo?

Christine Spolar: The media has been reporting for months the KLA was a separatist group and has attacked Serb police. The Serb authorities had said they were intent on quelling the separatist movement and what they called terrorist attacks. -- Christine

Rosslyn, Virginia: John, please explain U.S. government opinions on what to do in Kosovo.
What does the Pentagon think, the White House, the State dept., the Congress?

John Fox: As far as I know, these agencies come out as usual: the Pentagon wants to avoid intervention as long as possible, make it as safe as possible, and as limited as possible. The State Department wants to move in earlier, use force to back their otherwise often lame diplomacy, and lead the way among allies. The White House wants the whole thing to go away so the screen is clear for its bigger worries. Which adds up to a great way to get a big, late and expensive intervention after Kosovo - like Bosnia -- has gone from being no issue at all to being the #1 foreign policy crisis. -- John

Host Jude Doherty: The following comment comes from a participant in Toronto, Ontario: By pressing only one side in the conflict it would appear that it only encourages Albenian separatists to demand nothing but independance and expect Western military support in order to achive their goal. Both sides seem to hold on to maximum demands, either full independance (Albanians) or some sort of authonomy within Serbia (Yugoslavs). The conflict will continue until the West takes equaly tough stance on Albanian side. Bombing the Serbs will not help.

Washington, D.C.: For Christine Spolar:

Does Albania export any fruit or vegetable material to America, and if so, what (i.e. lettuces, citrus etc.) ?

.

Christine Spolar: One export from Albania are frog legs: frozen or fresh. Much of the business goes to France and other European countries. I don't think they could make it all the way to the United States. -- Christine

Fairfax, VA: John -- This is more a comment than a question. I was raised in Albania and lived there untill I was 14 years old. The national prejudice is very well alive there and all around Balkans.And it is the most importand and driving force in all day to day aspects of life, and as so I find it to be the most destructive force in the region. I was raised with a lot of national prejudice and it is still with me. I am not proud of it, but the only way to end Kosovo conflict is "military force" and do you like it or not this is the only thing Serb goverment will understand. I will be very surprised if this conflict is going to be settled down some ather way. What do you think about it? Thank you.

John Fox: Historically, aggressive nationalisms have either been defeated or countered militarily or they have dominated not just nations but regions and continents. In this case, Serbian nationalism is closer to being exhausted after the adventures of the 1990s, the half-measure NATO intervention in Bosnia, and the "sell-out" of nationalist special interests again and again by Milosevic in Croatia and Bosnia. Part of the crucial challenge to our sleep-walking international leaders is to stop this final adventure of Milosevic's manipulated nationalism before it sets off the other nationalist forces in the region in the series of conflicts and territorial struggles that have been discussed in other answers. But Belgrade has already made an immensely dangerous contribution to setting Albaniana nationalism on a course that can also be destructive in the end. -- John

Boston, MA: John -- What is the role of Greece, an EU-NATO member, in this big and dangerous regional crisis?

John Fox: Greece has an enormous amount to lose in a spreading Kosovo and Balkan conflict, which is why the public statements coming out of Athens' defense and foreign ministries in recent months have been nothing short of alarmist about the consequences of the Kosovo explosion. Greece has its most pro-European and Atlanticist government in memory, but like all moderate and pro-European forces and governments in the region, it too is threatened by the escalating crisis and blundering Western policies. There are forces in Greece that would like to promote much more active alliances with Milosevic on the basis of Orthodox or historical links, but this is the way of the past that can only damage both countries' real interests. -- John

Torrington, CT: Don't you think that our military's, more specifically the Army's, resources are already stretched dangerously thin? Getting involved in Kosovo seems foolish in my mind.

John Fox: As defined by the Bush and first Clinton Administration's the US has a vital, unilateral interest in Kosovo, most especially in not letting Kosovo explode but rather seeing resolution of the Kosovo question politically. That's why the US was prepared, until President Clinton II threw it away, to affirm a "Christmas Warning" to Belgrade not to do precisely what it is now doing in Kosovo, on threat of US unilateral military response. The US force commitment that will inevitably be needed to protect American and Atlantic interests in the region is growing exponentially as Washington and others kick the can. The forces are stretched, but that's because this administration too often forgets the lessons of deterrence that were hard-won in the Cold War and post-Cold War period alike. -- John

arlington, va: Christine: please explain the emotions of the refugees

Christine Spolar: The refugees are very angry and I think they are increasingly scared. Obviously they were scared from the fighting, but I think as they come into Albania and they're living in Europe's poorest country, they wonder what the future holds. Their hopes are on the separatist movement, but I don't know anyone who can guess the odds. However, the men going back to fight exude some confidence in their efforts. -- Christine

Host Jude Doherty: We're out of time now … so let's bring this online chat to a close. Washington Post correspondent Christine Spolar has joined us via telephone from Tirana, Albania. Policy analyst John Fox of the Open Society Institute has participated from The Washington Post's offices in D.C.

Thanks to all for participating. Come back next week for more live online discussions here on washingtonpost.com.

See you then!