The Monkey Cage: 2014


Posted at 12:00 PM ET, 01/29/2014

Republicans have a 54 percent chance of taking the Senate

If one forecast says 44% and the other forecast says 64%, I’d average and say 55%.

By Andrew Gelman  |  12:00 PM ET, 01/29/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  2014, Election forecasting

Posted at 10:01 AM ET, 10/28/2013

Republicans on track to retain control of House in 2014

A historically-based forecast using the generic congressional ballot suggests that the Republicans will retain control of the House in 2014.

By Andrew Gelman  |  10:01 AM ET, 10/28/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  2014, Congress, Elections, forecasting