The Monkey Cage: forecasting

Posted at 12:00 PM ET, 01/29/2014

Republicans have a 54 percent chance of taking the Senate

If one forecast says 44% and the other forecast says 64%, I’d average and say 55%.

By Andrew Gelman  |  12:00 PM ET, 01/29/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  2014, Election forecasting

Posted at 02:25 PM ET, 12/10/2013

A poll is a snapshot, not a forecast

When you hear that an election forecast outperforms the polls, remember that the purpose of a poll is not to predict the election but rather to provide a snapshot of opinion at the time the poll was taken.

By Andrew Gelman  |  02:25 PM ET, 12/10/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Election forecasting, Polling

Posted at 12:32 PM ET, 12/09/2013

Latin America gets its own, and it beats the polls in Chile

Using a variation of the type of poll aggregation models made famous by Nate Silver in the US, the authors did a better job forecasting the outcome of the 2013 Chilean election than any pre-election poll.

By Kenneth Bunker and Stefan Bauchowitz  |  12:32 PM ET, 12/09/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Campaigns and Elections, Chile, Election forecasting, Latin America, Methodology

Posted at 08:01 AM ET, 11/26/2013

Good judgment in forecasting international affairs (and an invitation for season 3)

Why some forecasts are better than others and how you can help improve them.

By Michael Horowitz  |  08:01 AM ET, 11/26/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  forecasting

Posted at 10:01 AM ET, 10/28/2013

Republicans on track to retain control of House in 2014

A historically-based forecast using the generic congressional ballot suggests that the Republicans will retain control of the House in 2014.

By Andrew Gelman  |  10:01 AM ET, 10/28/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  2014, Congress, Elections, forecasting

Posted at 08:53 PM ET, 10/17/2013

Mike Ward’s Lab Has a New Blog

Predictive Heuristics promises to lend insight into the big data debate.

By Erica Chenoweth  |  08:53 PM ET, 10/17/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  big data, forecasting, international security, political science, prediction