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Fancy Stats | Analysis

Why home-field advantage matters so much for the Eagles

December 27, 2017 at 1:49 PM

Philadelphia Eagles backup quarterback Nick Foles has completed 59 percent of his passes for 200 yards per game and an 88.1 rating. (James Lang/USA Today Sports)

The Philadelphia Eagles secured home-field advantage throughout the playoffs on Monday after they beat the Oakland Raiders, 19-10, at Lincoln Financial Field. It may have been an ugly performance, but its importance cannot be underrated.

For starters, consider the basic fact the Eagles are 7-0 at home. But the bigger development is that the home-field edge could make up for the downgrade at quarterback to Nick Foles from the injured Carson Wentz.

Related: [The Browns deserve a much better fate than a winless season]

To gauge the bounce from home-field advantage against the drop in production at quarterback, you have to dive into the nitty-gritty.

Wentz, before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 14, completed 60 percent of his passes for 253.5 yards per game, producing a 101.9 passer rating. Foles has completed 59 percent of his passes for 200 yards per game and an 88.1 rating. The offense, as you might expect, has slowed down as a result: With Wentz, the Eagles scored 2.4 points per drive but just 1.8 per drive with Foles.

That’s definitely a dip, but scoring 1.8 points per drive is an above-average rate this season. Add in an Eagles defense that is allowing just 1.5 points per drive, the fifth-lowest rate in 2017, and Philadelphia would produce the ninth-largest net points per drive mark in the NFL this year with Foles under center, a rate on par with the 9-6 Baltimore Ravens and higher than the 11-4 Carolina Panthers.

Related: [The Eagles are the NFC’s No. 1 seed, but look nothing like a Super Bowl team]

In terms of points, the Eagles are projected to score 18 points per game with Foles, three points fewer than with Wentz. However, using the same data that helped construct our power rankings — which highlights a team’s actual and expected win percentage for the year, Philadelphia gets at least a 10 percentage point boost to its win probability over each of the NFC teams currently in the playoff picture because of home-field advantage. Translate that to points, as Las Vegas does to calculate its point spreads, and you get a boost of about three points. That effectively bridges the gap between Wentz and Foles on the field.

It goes without saying the Eagles would be better off with home-field advantage and Carson Wentz, but at least now the home venue neutralizes the impact of starting Foles.

Related: [Power Rankings: As regular season wraps up, Patriots and Vikings sit atop the NFL]

In case you’re wondering, here’s how our power-ranking model predicts the Eagles would fare both at home and on the road against potential NFC playoff opponents:

Losing Wentz hurts, but securing home-field advantage should greatly help the Eagles navigate the loss of an MVP candidate by improving their odds of winning without him.

Read more from The Post:

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The Eagles are the NFC’s No. 1 seed, but they look nothing like a Super Bowl team

An NFL owner says ‘we have to fix’ replay as the league struggles with another controversial overruling

Why Kirk Cousins wants to talk with Redskins fans after the season ends

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Neil Greenberg is a staff writer with The Washington Post whose beat is sports analytics. His analysis and insight can be found on the Fancy Stats blog, where he covers all pro sports, as well as college football and basketball.

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