On the basis of recent statistics, economists for the country's two largest banks have proclaimed an end to the "pause" in the United States' economy's recovery and a speed-up in its rate of growth.
Manufacturers Hanover Trust Co. chief economist, Tilford C. Gaines, said in his monthly taped report that "the pause, the lull, whatever it was the economy has gone through for the past six to eight months, seems pretty definitely to have come to an end."
Gaines' colleague, Irwin L. Kellner, another economist at Manufacturers Hanover, cited as evidence the November surge in industrial production to a new high, the likelihood that Christmas retail sales rose 11 to 13 per cent in volume over a year ago, the continuing strong pace of residential construction activity, a $15 billion jump in personal income in November and signs that business capital spending is about to increase.
Citibank senior vice president and economist Leif Olsen also cited the November jump in industrial production as a "heartening sign" that the pause in the economy may have ended by October.
Olsen, on Citibank's monthly taped cassette service, said the increase reflects "a rebound from the auto strikes," as well as "a pick up in real demand elsewhere in the economy."
The rising level of mortgage commitments was noted as another indicator of a healthy business climate by Citibank vice president Peter Crawford, who predicted that housing starts, on the basis of the mortgage figures, by next spring and summer "will be well beyond the 1.7 million forecast for 1977 - probably reaching for exceeding a two million annual rate."