A gloomier picture of the world economic outlook than presented in its annual report, just a few weeks ago, is being circulated here privately by the International Monetary Fund in advance of the annual meeting which starts Tuesday.
A staff report dated Aug. 30, scheduled to be presented to the interim committee on Monday, estimates real economic growth in the industrial world at under 2 per cent for 1979, compared with 3 percent last year.
Moreover, it boosts the amount of the projected oil cartel surpluses by 6 billion in 1979 from the annual report projection of $43 billion to $49 billion. And for 1980 the surplus will go up to $55 instead of $50 billion, the IMF paper says.
The annual report, while predicting that economic growth in the industrial world would trail off, had given no figure.
The new data reflect the deterioration in world conditions since the IMF annual report was completed at the end of June. But sources said that it also reflected a more sober estimate of the prospects for the recession in 1979-1980.
One consequence of the swelling of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries surpluses is that rich and poor countries will see a further deterioration in their own international accounts.