The federal budget, another casualty of the recession, posted a deficit of $110 billion in fiscal year 1982, the largest red-ink figure in history, the Treasury Department is expected to report today.
The figure for the year ended Sept. 30 is nearly double the $57.9 billion deficit for 1981 and far larger than the previous record of $66.4 billion set in 1976.
Budget outlays were about $728 billion and receipts about $618 billion, administration sources said.
While in current dollar terms the $110 billion deficit was the largest in history, it represented only 3.6 percent of the gross national product. In 1976, the $66.4 billion deficit was equal to 4 percent of GNP. At the height of World War II, the red ink rose to about 28 percent of GNP.
Without actions to raise taxes or cut spending, many budget analysts expect the 1983 deficit to reach $175 billion or more. Without at least a moderate economic recovery, it would be still larger, the analysts believe.
Commerce Secretary Malcolm Baldrige said he expects such a recovery with consumer spending picking up before Christmas. "But we can't have more than a moderate recovery if we're going to keep inflation down," Baldrige told a group of reporters in his office. He predicts a 3 percent to 4 percent increase in GNP next year after adjustment for inflation.
Baldrige, acknowledging some of the problems caused by the large prospective deficits, said it is important to control them, but he said he would advise President Reagan to keep next year's already legislated 10 percent installment of income tax cuts.
The 1982 deficit of $110 billion is only slightly higher than the administration's last official estimate of $108.9 billion made in late July. It is $2 billion to $3 billion less than recent estimates by a number of other analysts, including those at the Congressional Budget Office.
One CBO official, who had not seen details of the Treasury report, said outlays were down slightly below CBO estimates across a wide range of programs, including defense. "Spending is somewhat lower than I would have expected given the amount of budget authority out there," he said.
Spending for the month of September 1981 also came in somewhat lower than had been expected last year, the CBO official noted.