Interesting excerpts from investing newsletters:
"Don't get the impression that I'm forecasting a new super bull market. I've said before that we are in a period much like 1966-1982. That was a long secular bear market during which the Dow was flat and stock investors' returns largely came from dividends. Within that period, there were a number of short-term bull and bear markets. Each of these mini-markets lasted hundreds of days and generated significant gains and losses. Within the long-term trend, stock investors who purchased small- and mid-size company stocks performed much better than the indexes dominated by stocks of the largest companies."
-- Bob Carlson's Retirement Watch
"U.S. stocks are about 10 percent undervalued in our refined valuation model. We've retooled our valuation framework to incorporate a more disciplined approach to equity market valuation. . . . [The] equity risk premium is now 4.2 percent, suggesting 8 percent long-term expected returns for stocks (vs. about 4 percent for government bonds)."
-- Steve Galbraith
"S&P has reduced its 2003 targets for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The S&P 500 is now projected to reach 930 by mid-year and 1005 by year-end, while the Nasdaq is expected to close at 1420 on June 30 and 1535 on Dec. 31. . . . The total market value for the companies in the S&P 500 was 76 percent of total projected U.S. GDP as of year-end 2002. The average market-value-to-GDP ratio since 1964 is 50 percent, with a high of 131 percent in the first quarter of 2000 and a low of 23 percent in the third quarter of 1974."
-- Investment Policy Committee Notes
Standard & Poor's
"Investors clearly know that near-term earnings are at risk, business trends are still weak, and the timing of an economic turn is less than certain. Still, more institutional investors believe that an economic recovery will start by the second half of 2002 and that fast-growing cyclically sensitive stocks will sell on 2003 earnings expectations . . . by early 2002. This growing optimism still needs to stand the test of short-term reality. Yet this apparent growing resiliency to negative news may support a 'buying on the dips' investment policy for more investors in the months ahead."
-- David A. Henwood
Focus List and Market Commentary
Raymond James & Associates
St. Petersburg, Fla.