The General Assembly's chief fiscal analyst predicted today that the proposed sale of Community Savings & Loan Association of Bethesda will ultimately cost the Maryland government $86 million, a loss that the state may not feel until the 1990s.

The estimate by William S. Ratchford, director of the legislature's Department of Fiscal Services, compares with a loss of $70 million to $80 million projected by Gov. Harry Hughes.

Also, Ratchford raised the possibility that the sale of First Maryland Savings and Loan may not be closed until this summer.

Ratchford said the state agency that insures frozen deposits at First Maryland, a Silver Spring thrift, is about $1.5 million shy of the $30 million needed to give to the thrift association's potential buyer.

Without additional money, it could be July 1, the start of the state government's next fiscal year, before the Maryland Deposit Insurance Fund can close the sale of First Maryland to Yorkridge-Calvert Savings and Loan of Baltimore, said Ratchford.

Other state officials said today at a legislative briefing that they are confident that MDIF will soon raise the money needed for the First Maryland sale. One source is expected to be John Hanson Savings and Loan of Greenbelt, which is scheduled to return $11.2 million that the state lent it to obtain federal deposit insurance.

Ratchford's estimates were released today at a briefing for House of Delegates members on the proposed sale of Community to Mellon Bank Corp. of Pittsburgh.

The sale agreement, announced by Hughes this week, requires MDIF to pay Mellon $131 million in cash to take Community -- and its associated deposit liability -- off the state's hands.

Until 1989, other costs would increase the price tag on the Community sale to $170 million, an amount that could be reduced by selling parts of the crippled thrift's holdings. That would raise an estimated $84 million, leaving an ultimate cost of $86 million to the state, Ratchford said.