Seven weeks before their legislative elections, Republicans and Democrats are wearing out the sturdy marble-and-limestone halls of the Capitol for dueling news conferences on the hot issues of the moment: guns in schools one day (Democrats oppose such firearms), elderly care the next (Republicans want to help senior citizens).
Are Virginia voters digesting this governmental goulash?
Party leaders answer with an emphatic yes, even as constituents back home empty Labor Day weekend sand out of their bathing suits and brace for Hurricane Floyd.
Northern Virginia Democrats said earlier this week that they might knock off a couple of GOP incumbents by advocating strict limits on guns on school property. Republicans, in turn, rolled out their four-point "bill of rights" for seniors.
GOP Chairman J. Randy Forbes, a state senator from Chesapeake, acknowledged the political timing of his elder-care plan. "It's true we're rolling it out now," in the election season, Forbes told reporters yesterday.
But, he said, Republicans are far more judicious in selecting issues for public consumption. "One press conference, one package, one proposal" is the Republican way, he said.
There indeed seemed to be some meat to Forbes's plan to help many of the more than 1 million Virginians who will be 60 and older next year. And, as several Democrats kindly pointed out, his proposal bore a striking resemblance to senior citizen initiatives that Donald S. Beyer Jr. was pushing in September 1997, during his Democratic run for governor.
"There's nothing new in here," sniffed Craig K. Bieber, executive director of the state Democratic Party. "It's a good thing somebody held on to a copy of Don's 1997 policy book!"
Forbes outlined a two-year, $25 million plan to safeguard Social Security benefits, protect older Virginians from criminal violence and telephone scams, promote independent living and safeguard against abuse in nursing homes and assisted-living facilities.
Sandra Levin, president of the Richmond-based Virginia Association of Non-Profit Homes for the Aging, said she generally welcomed programs to assist seniors, given the state's dismal performance in the past.
"They do very little about helping seniors and understand them even less," said Levin, whose group includes facilities assisting 18,000 senior citizens. Levin said the state needs to explore all care options, though, rather than pouring money into conventional forms of care alone.
Fund-Raising's Intricate Dance
Governors always keep a sharp eye on the comings and goings of their immediate predecessors, and that holds true for Gov. James S. Gilmore III and his camp when it comes to George Allen, their fellow Republican who hopes to parlay his four years at the Executive Mansion into a U.S. Senate seat.
Like friendly but wary boxers, Allen and Gilmore occasionally circle each other around Virginia.
Neither side is keeping an exact score, but both men are hustling to raise money for their own political action committees and the state Republican Party, which could help Gilmore capture control of the legislature this fall and boost Allen next year when he runs against two-term Sen. Charles S. Robb (D).
Take last Thursday. That morning in Fredericksburg, Gilmore went to a small breakfast gathering at the Central Park Cafe, where he raised a cool $105,000 from a dozen or so businesspeople. That evening, Allen was the star attraction at the home of William J. Vakos, a Spotsylvania County real estate developer, who raised $20,000 for state Senate hopeful Andrew M. "Mel" Sheridan Jr. (R).
Chris LaCivita, a longtime GOP operative who has ties to both camps, said Allen will help raise about $300,000 for House and Senate candidates this year through his Campaign for Honest Change PAC.
LaCivita, a senior strategist for Allen's 2000 race, said the former governor has a dozen more events to help legislative candidates between now and Nov. 2.
"This election is not about George Allen," LaCivita said, "but the governor's numbers are still incredibly high." GOP candidates are learning "that one of the most popular politicians in their district is George Allen," LaCivita said.
Ah, the Inside Dope
The smartest $25 any devotee of Virginia politics can spend is probably on "Virginia Votes, 1995-1998," the newly published analysis by Larry J. Sabato, a University of Virginia pundit known for crunching the numbers that often reveal the inside scoop on electoral politics.
Sabato has been at it since the early 1970s, studying voter turnout, demographics, campaign finance and polling.
Among his more pessimistic findings: The 48 percent turnout of the voting-age population in the 1996 presidential election was below the nation's 49 percent figure and marked the first time in Virginia's modern era that fewer voters went to the polls than in the previous presidential election.
In the congressional elections last year, there was no two-party competition in seven of Virginia's 11 districts, which Sabato said was the worst record by the major parties in modern times.
He's Been Right Before
And speaking of Sabato, here are two of his observations in the Notebook's dog-eared copy of "Virginia Votes, 1975-1978," that seem eerily appropriate today:
"The new surge of Republicanism and the decline of Democratic fortunes in Virginia represent no sharp break with the past. . . . A whole decade of gruesome statistics for Virginia Democrats becomes more understandable when viewed in this way."
"While they will likely continue in the majority, Democrats had best be prepared for significant Republican gains in the legislature. . . . A decade-long trend to the GOP will not be easily reversed."