NEVER HOSPITABLE territory for either Reagan or Carter, Connecticut is keeping both in suspense about which it dislikes least. The Anderson vote has held up more strongly here than most states, and he keeps coming back to nourish it. Reagan had a chance to capitalize on the home stage popularity of running mate Bush, but has used him less here than in his other home, Texas. Organized labor and the Democratic organization of Gov. Ella Grasso (D) moved Carter into a tossup race, but late soundings give a narrow edge to Reagan.
Rep. Christopher J. Dodd (D), 36, has emerged as a solid favorite over former New York Sen. James L. Buckley (R), 57, for the seat of retiring Sen. Abraham A. Ribicoff (D).
Besides helping Carter, Dodd's vote should boost Democratic chances of holding his House seat, where former state Rep. Samuel Gejdenson (D) is opposing insurance man Tony Guglielmo (R). Republican chances are better in the district vacated by retiring House Budget Committee Cahirman Robert N. Giaimo (D), where state Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (D) is outspending former state Sen. Lawrence J. DeNardis (R), but DeNardis is making inroads in the normally Democratic New Haven Italian vote. DELAWARE (3)
AN EARLY OCTOBER Wilmington News-Journal poll gave Reagan a 5-point lead on Carter, with Anderson at 15, but the trend for most of October appeared to be in the direction of the president, who won the state by 5 points in 1976. Feminist, environmentalist and black support help Carter, but Anderson's suburban liberal vote could tip it the other way.
Gov. Pierre S. (Pete) duPont (R), 45, is miles ahead for a second term over State Rep. William J. Gordy (D), 55, of Laurel. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA (3)
THE DISTRICT will go straight Democratic -- and heavily. A Reagan advertising campaign aimed at the city's black communities and some sentiment for Anderson among liberals in the affluent area west of Rock Creek Park will take some votes away from the 82 percent Carter won here in 1976 -- but not many. Also, D.C. Del. Walter E. Fauntroy (D) faces only nominal opposition from Bob Roehr (R), Josephine Butler (D.c. Statehood) and writein candidate Bill Keyes, who was endorsed by the local Republican Party.
Two ballot initiatives, one to legalize a city-run daily lottery and numbers game and another to begin drafting a constitution to make D.C. a state, are heavy favorites to carry. MAINE (4)
EDMUND S. MUSKIE helped carry Maine for the Democrats when he was the vice presidential nominee in 1968, and he seems to be doing the same thing with his "nonpolitical" appearances as secretary of state. A University of Maine poll published Saturday in the Bangor Daily News gave Carter a 7-point lead, but found the undecided vote breaking slightly to Reagan after the debate and Anderson holding on to 13 percent. The state leans to Carter, but shakily, and could split its electoral votes under the unusual rule that awards two votes to the winner of the statewide popular vote and one to the winner in each congressional district. Both House Republican seats are secure. MARYLAND (10)
DESPITE SIGNS of lethargy in the state Democratic organization and turnout worries, Carter seems a solid favorite to repeat his 1976 win. A Baltimore Sun poll in mid-October put him 8 points ahead.
Sen. Charles McC. Mathias Jr. (R), 58, looks like a landslide winner for a third term over State Sen. Edward T. Conroy (D), 51, but the other news for Republicans is not good. Rep. Clarence D. Long (D) appears to be turning back the challenge of former Maritime Commission Chairman Helen Delitch Bentley (R). Freshman Rep. Michael D. Barnes (D) is a slight favorite in his rematch with ex-Rep. Newton I. Steers (R). And the reaction to his arrest and subsequent admission of "homosexual tendencies" had made Rep. Robert E. Bauman (R) an underdog in what may finally prove to be a close fight with Del. Roy Dyson (D). Rep. Gladys Noon Spellman (d) is expected to win reelection overwhelmingly against political unknown Kevin Igoe (R), although she suffered a massive heart attack Friday night. MASSACHUSETTS (14)
REAGAN HAD MADE no real campaign here, but today's Boston Globe poll shows the race is still close. It gives Carter a shaky 36-32 lead, with Anderson holding at the same 21 percent figure he had three weeks earlier. There has been a slight move of the undecideds to Carter, but the reluctance of Kennedy partisans to embrace the president is evident in the fact that those polled said that even if Anderson dropped out, the margin for Carter would still be only 3 points.
The closest House race finds freshman Rep. Nicholas Mavroules (D) enlisting help from entrenched colleagues to turn back the challenge of attorney Thomas H. Trimarco (R). State Rep. Barney Frank (D) is favored over dentist Richard A. Jones (R) for the seat vacated by retiring Rep. Robert F. Drinan (D), and Rep. Margaret M. Heckler (R) is picked to survive an unusually strong challenge from State Sen. Robert E. McCarthy (D). NEW HAMPSHIRE (4)
REAGAN IS EXPECTED to win at least 60 percent of the vote, but that is not likely to affect the rematch in the gubernatorial race, where Gov. Hugh Gallen (D), 56, is a strong favorite over ex-governor Meldrim Thomson Jr. (R), 68, a champion of conservative causes.
The featured bout has freshman Sen. John A. Durkin (D), 44, opposing former state attorney general Warren Rudman (R), 49. Rudman has been the aggressor against the feisty Durkin, hammering hard at the incumbent's labor contributions and using a "Pinocchio spot" on TV to accuse Durkin of lies. His own polls put Rudman ahead but some think there could be a blacklash against the moderate Republican's uncharacteristic campaign tactics.
Judd Gregg (R), a member of the state executive council, leads Nashua Mayor Maurice L. Arel (D) for the seat of retiring Rep. James C. Cleveland (R). New Jersey (17)
DURING THE PRE-DEBATE fortnight, Carter gained on Reagan and may actually have held the lead for a while -- but New Jersey once again seems to have slipped from his grasp. The Eagleton Institute poll taken Oct. 29-30 showed Reagan leading Carter 41-37, with Anderson at 9. This poll can be considered a tossup but private surveys show a wider Reagan margin. While most of the remaining undecideds are Democrats, the president has never been popular here and his problems in this election range from the absence of a black candidate to increase the turnout in Newark to the indictment last week of Sen. Harrison A. (Pete) Williams Jr. (D) on Abscam charges -- not a popular move with his friends.
An Abscam indictment also threatens the career of veteran Rep. Frank Thompson Jr.(D), but many bet the voters will not preempt the jury's judgment. Two other Democrats have strong women challengers: Rep. Andrew Maguire (D) in a rematch with Marge Roukema (R) and Rep. James J. Howard (D) against Assemblywoman Marie Muhler (R). State Sen. Bernard J. Dwyer (D) is expected to succeed retiring Rep. Edward J. Patten (D). New York (41)
JUST WHEN BOTH CAMPS had amiably consigned New York to the Carter column, a Newsday-Gannett News Service poll, completed after the debate and released today, showed Carter's lead had dropped to a statistically insignificant 45-43 margin, with Anderson at 11 percent. The Reagan camp is still assuming that old habits will prevail, but if New York is in doubt -- as the poll suggests -- Carter's chances of reelection are either slim or none.
The same poll shows a tightening Senate race. Rep. Elizabeth Holtzman (D), 39, has been favored over Hempstead Supervisor Alfonse D'Amato, 43, on the GOP and Conservative lines, and Sen. Jacob K. Javits (R), running as a Liberal after losing the Republican nomination to D'Amato. But this poll shows it Holtzman 41 D'Amato 37 and Javits 22 -- a far cry from the 10-point lead Holtzman backers had claimed.
There are eight or nine real House contests. The GOP is almost sure to take over the seat of retiring Rep. James M. Hanley (D), with publisher George Wortley (R) a strong favorite over IBM executive Jeffery S. Brooks (D). In all other districts, the incumbent or his party is favored. The headline battles: freshman Rep. William Carney (R) vs. attorney Thomas A. Twomey Jr. (D); Rep. Jerome A. Ambro (d) vs. Farmingdale Councilman Gregory W. Carman (R); Assemblyman Raymond McGrath (R) vs. former state senator Karen S. Burstein (D) for the seat of retiring Rep. John W. Wydler (R); Rep. Leo C. Zeferetti (D) vs. law clerk Paul M. Atanasio (R); Rep. John M. Murphy (D), indicted in Abscam, vs. Assemblyman Guy Molinari (R); Rep. S. William Green (R) vs. Mark J. Green (D), a Ralph Nader deputy, and Assemblyman David O'B. Martin (R) vs. former Lt. Gov. Mary Ann Krupsak (D) for the seat of retiring Rep. Robert C. McEwen (R). PENNSYLVANIA (27)
UNTIL THE PAST couple of days, neither camp could nudge its candidate ahead in its own Pennsylvania polls, so both have scheduled extra campaign stops and more TV spots in an effort to break the race open. Carter needs a big Philadelphia turnout, but privately key Democrats estimate his margin will likely be down one-third from the 255,000 city plurality that gave him the state in 1976. He is also weaker in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre but Reagan is no Ford in the Main Line suburbs and Carter still looks strong in the west. Anderson's vote could make the difference in this tossup state.
A series of private and public polls have shown former Philadelphia district attorney Arlen Specter (R), 50, moving into a narrow lead over former Pittsburgh mayor Pete Flaherty (D), 55. Specter had the money for a much heavier TV finish and is slightly favored to succeed retiring Sen. Richard S. Schweiker (R).
Rep. Michael (Ozzie) Myers, convicted in Abscam, will probably lose his seat to Thomas M. Foglietta, a former Philadelphia city councilman who is running as an independent but will serve as a Democrat. Perennially sacred Reps. Robert W. Edgar and Peter H. Kostmayer, two Democrats in normally Republican suburban districts, appear to be doing their survival act again despite the best efforts of challengers Dennis J. Rochford (R), a county councilman, and James K. Coyne (R), a township supervisor. Freshman Rep. Don Ritter (R) has a strong challenger in State Sen. Jeanette Reibman (D) but Pittsburgh City Councilman William J. Coyne (D) has the inside track on Stan Thomas (R) to succeed retiring Rep. William S. Moorehead (D). RHODE ISLAND (4)
LIKE THE America's Cup defenders, Carter continues to sail along comfortably ahead of his challengers, and Gov. J. Joseph Garrahy (D), 49, has left Providence Mayor Vincent A. Cianci (R), 39, far in his wake as he cruises toward a third two-year term.
This Democratic tide may help Rep. Edward P. Beard (D) survive his rematch with Claudine Schneider (R), a former TV talk show hostees, but it would surprise no one if Beard failed to make it back to the Potomac shores. VERMONT (3)
AT FIRST, Vermont politicians could not believe the polls, but now they are convinced that Carter is within striking range of an upset -- in part because Anderson is still draining off moderate Republican votes from Reagan.
Gov. Richard A. Snelling (R), 53, seeking a third term, appears to have put away the challenge of Attorney General M. Jerome Diamond (D), 38.
Patrick J. Leahy, 40, the state's first-year Democratic senator, has seen some erosion in his lead over Stewart Ledbetter (R), 47, the former banking and insurance commissioner. Ledbetter was helped by an anti-Leahy campaign mounted by Rep. James M. Jeffords (R), who passed up a chance to challenge Leahy himself but seems to have a trunkful of speeches about the senator. Nonetheless, state observers think Leahy should hang on to win. WEST VIRGINIA (6)
THE DEMOCRATIC LABEL is working for Carter here, with his lead increasing to 11 points as Anderson drops and Reagan stagnates in the polls.
Gov. John D. (jay) Rockefeller IV (D), 43, decided to add several million dollars' worth of campaign-spending insurance to his second-term bid, and it seems to have purchased him a safe cushion over ex-governor Arch A. Moore (R), 57, who delayed Rockefeller's national ambitions by beating him for the same job in 1972.
That top-of-the-ticket strength could help Democrats hold two shaky House seats. State Sen. Pat R. Hamilton (D) is facing former GOP state chairman Cleve Benedict (R) for the seat of retiring Harley O. Staggers (D), and a special-election winner, Rep. John G. Hutchinson (D), is in a rematch with banker Mick Staton (R).