From "The End of the Affair?" an article by James Chace in The New York Review of Books Oct. 8:

For the contras, the likelihood is that they will cease to be an effective fighting force. The Hondurans are extremely reluctant to take in large numbers of tough jungle fighters. . . . If {the contras} can receive guarantees of their safety and are allowed to take part in the political process inside Nicaragua, political leaders such as Robelo and Cesar, both former supporters of the Sandinista-controlled government, would likely prove highly effective spokesmen for the opposition.

The Sandinistas, in turn, will gain the respite they believe they need to improve their economic situation. But the Marxist-Leninist ideology of the Sandinistas does not lead one to expect that they will change much. From my talks in Managua, I had the impression that the bureaucracy will expand and the regime's ministries will take over more and more of the economy. With the state security apparatus in place, the Sandinistas will almost certainly do what they can to consolidate the state along Leninist lines. But this will not be easy. By fulfilling the letter if not the spirit of the Guatemalan accords, the Sandinistas will have to accept a far greater degree of political pluralism than they may have ever intended. . . .

The likelihood for Nicaragua under these circumstances is a long-term struggle for power, continued internal tensions, and a sad and impoverished country