From an address by Alexander M. Haig Jr. in Orta San Giulio, Italy, June 5:

It has been entertaining to watch Moscow argue that a unified Germany in NATO presents a potential mortal danger of revanchism while a unified but neutral Germany defining her security apart from both East and West would not be a problem. Lately, however, the Soviets have recovered a certain clarity in their thinking. They want a unified Germany that finances perestroika, fields only a mini-military force and pays for a lengthy and large Soviet troop stay in the GDR. If the new Germany should insist on being part of NATO, they want a NATO gelded of its forward defense, its theater nuclear response or any nuclear response and with militarily insignificant forces in Germany -- especially American troops. In short, Moscow is behaving as if it were the victor in a recent military contest and Germany and NATO the vanquished... .

Mr. Gorbachev evidently hopes to use his 380,000 men in the GDR and the threat of nonagreement to German political unification as the leverage to pry Germany out of a live NATO or to leave Germany in a dead NATO. As we deal with his demands, we must see that his proclaimed leverage is really a bluff, albeit a dangerous one.

Six months or a year from now, when Germany is unified de facto and when the allies and everyone else in Europe insist that Germany should be part of a live NATO, will it really be in Soviet interests to stand alone? ...

We cannot afford -- not the United States or its allies, especially the Germans -- to give conflicting signals on the unification issue. A sovereign, democratic Germany in a live NATO is the bottom line. Anything less than that will merely snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.