he White House yesterday declassified a Central Intelligence Agency report that predicts the Soviet Union will be competing with the rest of the world for Middle Eastern oil.
"We estimate that the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe will requre a minimum of 3.5 million barrels per day of imported oil by 1985," the CIA report said. "At worst, slumping production could lead to import requirements as large as 4.5 million barrels a day." At present, the Soviet Union supplies Eastern Europe with most of its crude oil.
By 1982, the CIA report predicts, Soviet oil fields will reach their maximum output of 11 million to 12 million barrels a day. Before 1985, the CIA report goes on, Soviet oil production will begin what the CIA calls a wharp decline."
The CIA report says that China cannot be expected to take up any of the slack in world oil trade in the next 10 years. The CIA said that by 1980 China will be exporting no more than 500,000 barrels of oil a day, scarcely a trickle in a world the CIA said will be using more than 70 million barrels a day in fewer than 10 years.
"In China, the reserve and production outlook is much less favorable than it appeared a few years ago," the report said. "We anticipate that growing domestic oil needs, resulting from economic growth and trouble with coal production, will reduce oil exports to a negligible level by 1985."
The CIA report does not contain an anlysis or explanation of its pessimistic outlook for Soviet and Chinese oil production.
In projecting sharp declines for Soviet oil production, the CIA does not say whether they will be triggered by dwindling Soveit oil fields or an inability to move oil out of the ground and into a pipeline network.
The CIA also did not identify the sources of information in its report. The White House said the report includes recent studies by the Library of Congress, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris.
"All concluded that in the 1980s world oil demand will exceed suppplies," the White House said. "The CIA reports is another reminder that world oil production limits will be reached in the 1980s."
None of the other reports mentioned by the White House concluded tht Soviet oil production would concluded that Soviet oil production would turn down in the next five years, as the CIA predicts. One White House source said the CIA report is based at least in part on the Soviets' own planning figures, which he said have been revised downward in the last six months.
Oil industry sources familiar with Soviet oil production said they are unaware that any major Soviet oil fields are approaching periods of decline. These sources said they know of no new Soveit commitments to Eastern European countries that might drain Soviet oil our of the country at a laster rate.
The CIA has said in previously published reports that the Soviet Union now produces about 10 million barrels of oil a day, exports go to Eastern Europe and a third go to Western Europe. The remainder goes to Asia and countries like Cuba and Ghana, which are friendly to the Soviet Union.
A White House source said there is sharp disagreement inside the Carter administration about the conclusions the CIA makes about Soviet oil.
"It would be wrong to say there is strong agreement that the Soviets will become an oil importer by 1985," the source said. "There are disagreements inside the bureaucracy."
Oil industry sources said that all geological information on Soviet oil fields is classified by the Soviets, which makes even speculation about Soviet oil production a risky business. There are no American oil companies exploring and drilling for oil in the Soviet Union, which makes estimating Soviet oil reserves even more difficult.
The Soviet may be nearing maximum production in their existing oil fields, sources said, for the simple reason that they may be unable to move any more oil out of their fields and into pipelines.
"We know of no new pipeline projects or production platform increases to move the oil out," one source said. "This may mean that they're reaching their limits but it doesn't mean they're about to go into a decline."
The Soviets are drilling for oil in two offshore regions of their frontier lands. One is the Barent Sea near the deeper waters of the Caspian Sea where they already have producing wells in shallow water.
"Their technology isn't as good as ours so for them extraction of the oil might be more difficult and take longer than it would for us," a White House source said. "The recoverability of that oil may be much lower than projected, that may be what the CIA reports has in mind."
Besides warning that Soviet oil declines would mean new strains on world oil resources, the CIA report sounded a note of gloom in forecasting sharp rises in world oil demand that the world may be unable to meet.
"In the absence of greatly increased energy conservation," the CIA report said, "projected world demand for oil will approach productive capacity by the early 1980s and substantially exceed capacity by 1985. In these circumstances, prices will rise sharply to ration available supplies no matter what Saudi Arabia does."
"Even if all other oil-exporting states produce at capacity, Saudi Arabia will be required to produce between 19 and 23 million barrels a day if demand is to be met," the CIA said. "With the present expansion plans of the Saudis, their execessive productive capacity will exhausted by 1983, and with it their ability to act as a price moderator" in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Saudi Arabia now produces about 9 million barrels of oil a day but holds an estimated 30 per cent of the world's oil reserves.