If the congressional elections were held today, the Republicans would gain very few, if any, seats. In any case the change would be far below the average gain for the "out party" of 30 to 50 seats in the 435-seat house.
If the vote for the House were being cast now, survey evidence indicates that Democratic candidates would win 58 percent of the vote nationwide and Republicans would win 42 percent nationwide, assuming a turnout comparable to those of 1970 and 1974.
The Gallup Poll estimates that the current survey results indicate little if any loss for the Democratic Party if the average historical relationship between shift in vote and seat change prevails.
Analysis of Gallup Polls over the last four decades indicates that a president who has the popular approval of fewer than 55 percent of the nation's adults finds that his party suffers greater than normal losses in House seats. (The latest approval rating of President Carter as reported by the Gallup Poll was 39 percent).
At present, however, this coattail effect does not seem to be operative. One reason is the fact that the Democratic Party holds a wide advantage over the GOp as the party voters believe better able to deal with the cost of living and unemployment.
Ever since the Democratic Party wrested control of the House from the GOP in 1932, the Republicans have been unable to regain control in an off-year election except in 1946.
These results are based on the following questions:
If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party would you like to see win in this congressional district, the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?
Those who were undecided were asked:
As of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party or to the Republican Party?
Following are the results of the survey as well as the division of the vote when those who are undecided are allocated between the two major parties