Nine of every 10 new jobs created in the next decade will be in service industries, with health and computer-related professions growing the fastest, while manufacturing jobs continue a sluggish growth, according to a study by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The bureau's projections are the strongest indicators to date of the extent of the transformation of the American economy from one based on industry to a service-oriented one in which computers, telecommunications, health and business services are the driving forces.
The data sketch a changing work force, with greater participation by blacks and women and with substantial growth in both low-paid menial jobs and higher skilled and higher paid professions.
Occupations with the greatest number of new jobs by 1995 will be cashiers, registered nurses, janitors and cleaners, truck drivers, waiters and waitresses, wholesale and retail sales people, nurses' aides and accountants, the agency said. These occupations will expand by more than 3.5 million jobs.
The fastest growing occupations will be paralegals, computer programmers and analysts, medical assistants, technicians and engineers who specialize in electronics and computers, and travel agents. Growth in those job categories will range from a 43 percent increase in the number of travel agents to a97 percent increase in paralegals.
The U.S. economy will add10 million to 20 million jobs in the next decade, depending on the health of the economy, but regardless of the size of expansion, service jobs will dominate to a greater extent than previously realized, said Ronald Kutscher, the Bureau of Labor Statistics associate commissioner who supervised the study.
The study's findings will be published in the new biennial edition of the Occupational Outlook Handbook, used in high school and college guidance programs and in determining course selection for government and private-sector training and retraining programs.
Blacks and women are expected to occupy increasing proportions of the new jobs because of a higher birth rate among blacks and because of the continued trend toward more working women. An estimated 20 percent of new jobs will be filled by blacks and 60 percent by women, according to projections. This would increase the black work force's participation from its current 10 percent to 11 percent by 1995 and women from the current 43 percent to 46 percent.
While many service jobs are at the low end of the salary scale, several highly skilled and higher paid job categories are expected to grow more rapidly than average.
Assuming moderate growth creates a 15 percent increase in total job growth, the bureau predicts that demand for executive, administrative and managerial workers will be above average, at 22 percent, while professional and technical jobs will increase by 21 percent and 28 percent, respectively.
Manufacturing, which employed 20 million people and accounted for 25 percent of jobs in 1969, has declined in both numbers and percentage of the work force, but is expected to expand moderately in the next decade. By 1995, there will be20 million to 22 million manufacturing jobs, but such jobs will represent only 17 percent of total employment, the study said.